저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 관세는 2018년 사례상 수입업자·소비자가 대부분 부담하며 가격 인상과 사중손실을 낳는다. 2025 관세는 더 커서 부담이 더 클 것으로 봄. 중국은 자급 강화로 관세 충격을 흡수할 여력이 있다. 9월 금리 인하 확률 72.6%, 연내 두 번 인하 확률 92% 등 시장 전망 인용. 도우 차트가 2008년 패턴과 유사하다고 언급하나 확정 예측은 아님. L3Harris는 골든돔 수혜로 골드만이 2~3년간 23% 상승 여지를 봤다고 전함. 하우스핵 비상장 투자 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Hey, uh, quick additional info. Elon tweeted while I was filming the video and he said that he is back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in the conference server factory rooms. I will be super focused on XAI X and Tesla plus the Starship launch next week. As we have critical technologies rolling out as evidenced by the X uptime issues this week, it was down like all morning today.
Major operational improvements need to be made. The failover redundancy should have worked, but it did not. I'm happy to hear Elon is coming back to work. This is a good thing and hopefully a near-term positive catalyst as we go into some pretty big moments, especially for Tesla with robo taxi launch coming up sometime next month.
All right, today we got to talk about the Iron Dome. which company to invest in because of the Iron Dome, at least according to well Goldman Sachs. We got to talk about the actual impact of tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, individual political updates that might be useful in your investing, and well, I'll go through a before and after 3D Matterport scan of one of our house hack properties because I know some of you have been asking for it.
So, that's what we'll cover today. Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Jet Pilot Data 7 and sponsored by Life Insurance. You can get in as little as five minutes by going to medkvin.comlife. It's the same thing Lauren and I have. It's quick and easy to get on your phone. met Kevin.com/life. Okay, so let's get started.
First, we need to understand that the Federal Reserve has actually studied Donald Trump's tariffs before. When we go back to 2018 tariffs, we can see what the impact of those tariffs were and who ended up paying for those tariffs, which is a useful comparison because here we are under a Trump administration once again getting tariffs once again with a Donald Trump who says, "I don't want the consumer to pay as long as the consumer doesn't have to pay." And then of course arguing that other countries will pay.
Well, according to the 2018 paper from the Federal Reserve, quote, recent economic literature has found that the prices paid by importers increased one to one with the tariff increases. In other words, which means that the effective cost to a US importer increased for these goods on a 1:1 basis for the tariffs.
So, if the tariffs were 10%, the cost for the importer went up 10%. Now, keep in mind when you run a business, that does not mean the business's bottom line is 10% smaller because 100% of your cost is not just the product or the shipment of that product. You have corporate overhead. You have labor that goes into the costs, a lot more.
So, let's I always like using a Nike shoe for example, and we'll use a $100 shoe as a a simple idea here. Maybe the good is only worth about $25. A 10% tariff on that actual shoe from China shipped to the US would only work out to about $2.50. Now, the other $75 is going to the marketing campaign from Nike, the labor costs associated with distributing it within the United States, the GNA, the general and administrative costs associated with actually distributing and hiring the Nike staff who come up with and design these shoes, and then of course the retail staff.
And then at the end there's some leftover margin at Nike. Point is the Federal Reserve says 100% in 2018 of the tariffs were borne by US importers in 2018. So this explains why our washing machines got more expensive, our dryers got more expensive, and products that were tariffed got more expensive in 2018.
And US consumers ended up in part having to pay for higher prices. It's the way it is and that's just the science or the economics of it. Now, a lot of people when I explain the economics of it and I actually provide data will say things in the comment like, "But Kevin, Kevin, we want fair trade. Don't you know the difference between free trade and fair trade?" I can't relitigate this every single freaking video.
The best case scenario is free trade. And there are better ways to get to fair and free trade than using tariffs. But hey, if Donald Trump wants to go through this path, that's fine. That's his prerogative. He's the president and we just knock on wood that we could get through this crisis obviously without uh an economic recession, especially since the impacts of these uh tariffs really aren't going to hit probably again until July or August.
Chinese imports of these goods declined by roughly 40% in 2018 to late 2019. A stunning reversal for a trading relationship that had grown almost without interruption for decades. As Chinese imports receded, other trading partners filled the void. Imports from Mexico and the European Union uh in increased gradually relative to the levels of early 2018, basically offsetting the Chinese imports.
So in other words, somebody else is picking up the trade when we do less business with China. Okay, interesting. And we're paying more or higher prices in the meantime. Now, what else have we found? Well, in 2018, there were certain categories that did get hit the most with price increases. What we saw is motor vehicle parts, hand and sport and recreation vehicles, household supplies and furnishings, clocks, carpet, household appliances, household cleaning supplies, sewing kits, vehicle items.
All of these saw about a 6% price increase just before the pandemic. So in other words, from early 2018 to just before the pandemic, we did see that feed through to actual consumer prices. Again, when you think about it from a margin point of view, it's a little bit easier to see that it's not going to be that full 10% or 30% or whatever because again, the tariffs apply to the goods in just the COG sector of a corporation's income statement.
Okay. Now, the Federal Reserve also acknowledges that TVs continue to get more inexpensive during the tariff war. That is likely because TVs have been so mass-produced by even lossleading connected TV companies like Roku just to get clientele. All right, this makes sense. Uh then we have another piece out and and mind you, I'm going through this because Donald Trump yesterday said, you know, oh, his tariffs never increase the prices for consumers.
It's like, all right, that's a nice thing to say, but it's just not an economic reality. Okay, that's not trying to bag on Donald Trump. It's just trying to say like the data says he's wrong. It's that simple. All right, here's another piece. Oh, uh, let me just intro this piece really quick. So, this piece is by the American Economic Association and it's called the impact of the 2018 tariffs on prices and welfare.
Basically, very much the same conclusion. We find that US import tariffs were almost completely passed through into US domestic prices in 2018. Not great obviously. So that the entire incidence of tariffs fell on domestic consumers and importers up to now with no impact so far on the prices received by foreign exporters.
In other words, foreign exporters were still receiving the same prices. Now that may not be true of today's prices, price tariff or or tariffs rather because tariffs are so high and China has overbuilt to some extent its manufacturing abilities. So there may be more give today where you know countries or manufacturers within countries like China are more willing to take part in some of this but at least when we look at history same administration same style of tariffs much smaller in 2018 definitely hit the US consumer and the US consumer or US importers basically pay all of it and that ultimately slows down our growth the deleterious impacts of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2018 2018 have been largely in line with one might what one might have predicted on the basis of simple supply and demand frameworks.
During 2018, prices of US-made, intermediate, and final goods rose significantly in sectors affected by tariffs relative to the unaffected categories. All right. Well, that makes logical sense so far. Uh okay. So, what uh what else we had was a little bit talk a little bit of talk on dead weight loss.
I like that the economic paper actually talks about the dead weight loss where uh they actually don't think the dead weight welfare cost was that high in 2018. They only saw it as about an $ 8.2 billion hit during just 2018 when the tariffs were newer. Would have been nice to have gotten these numbers for 2019 when the tariffs had a full year out.
But uh as of December of 2018, they cost about $1.4 billion per month in just like evaporated money. Remember dead weight loss is just that evaporated money. But it's interesting because today's tariffs are probably an order of magnitude of I don't know 10 times larger than what we had back then. So uh it's expected that the dead weight loss to our economy will be substantially higher.
Uh unless of course we can you know pair back these tariffs. Now uh obviously a lot of different banks and institutions are trying to figure out okay what what are the prospects for ultimately what's going to happen with tariffs. Deutsche Bank has a good piece on that this morning. So Deutsche Bank writes the following.
They say turning to the impact of tariffs we find today because this was written in 2025. Contrary to uh conventional wisdom they could actually narrow the deficit to some extent. This is partly because foreign retaliation to aggressive US tariff policy may prove to be more hesitant and muted than in the past.
This is interesting. It's basically saying, hey, if we keep some of the tariffs, maybe we can actually gain more revenue because we might not actually get as much retaliation as we had in the past. Mostly because everyone's economy is kind of moving in somewhat of a slow motion environment right now.
Nobody's really booming, so there's less of a desire to add sort of fuel to the fire and fight fire with fire, if you will. However, Deutsche Bank does acknowledge that while that could be an upside, the downside is tariff policy comes at a substantial cost in terms of increased prices and reduced output that are scheduled to show up in the months ahead and last for years.
Now, that's really interesting because it basically tells you that like, hey, like no duh, we're not seeing anything in the data yet from tariffs. It's still going to take until June, July, August to see it. And the real downside is these tariffs are going to be an economic burden on our economy, probably for the next 3, four years until Donald Trump leaves office and likely the next administration just undoes them, unless we have free and fair trade before then.
Deutsche Bank goes on and says, "The administration has already shown a readiness to reverse course in the face of potential economic pain. The tariffs on China were reduced sharply in exchange only for China unwinding its retalatory moves. We can expect that the unpopularity of US tariff policy with the US public will grow as the negative economic impacts Allah higher prices and reduced impact and employment growth in other words negative employment growth become more evident in the months just ahead.
This implies that public pressure would likely build to the point where further reductions in tariffs from current levels are forthcoming. So in other words, people are going to get pissed along, you know, with that it's possible we slowly start deteriorating a little bit in markets. Who knows? You know, this isn't a video to say like, oh, you know, everything's going to crash tomorrow.
It's just saying like that the pain is still ahead of the impact of these tariffs. I actually thought great martyrs here had a very interesting and sort of eerie Dow Jones industrial average comparison to 2008. Now, in fairness, some of the recent damage in the Dow was probably because of United Health.
But when you compare 2025's setup to 2020 or to 2008's setup, it's kind of scary because you see sort of like the double top, the deterioration, the double top, the deterioration, the rebound over the period of, you know, a couple months, two to three months, just like what we've seen now. And then of course what happened in 2008 was we finally hit a shock.
Not not ideal but then again who knows maybe that's just technical analysis fugazi and it doesn't really mean anything. It is worth noting though as I've mentioned before that uh Walmart, Home Depot, Ralph Lauren, they've all been talking about how the consumer is holding up. William Sonoma turned uh saw its furniture division turn positive for the first quarter 9.
Uh their comp sales were positive in Q1 3.4%. 4%. Advanced auto sales were down 6.8% year-over-year, but that was actually better than expected. Uh, so some of the consumer spending numbers from Q1 that are coming in, they're still good. But then again, January, February, March, does anybody really care about those consumer numbers from then?
I personally don't think so. Another one to consider is L3 Harris is being considered a big beneficiary by Goldman Sachs of the uh Golden Iron Dome. the Golden Dome that Donald Trump wants to spend about $175 billion on may lead to a lot of money for L3 Harris and uh Goldman sees over the next two to three years an additional like 23% upside in the stock because of the Golden Dome.
So interesting little snippet there to keep in mind. Uh the Federal Reserve also now sees a 72.6% chance of a se September cut. And when I say that, that sounds like the Fed is forecasting that. Markets are forecasting that the Fed will cut once uh with a 72.6% chance in September. Full cut being delayed until October.
And a second cut has a 92% chance by December 10th. This did go down following the sort of threat of European Union tariffs. I'm a little concerned about these because I do think the European Union is going to be a little bit more aggressive against Donald Trump than China was. That's just my take. We'll see.
Hopefully not. We do know that we have Mr. Besson who yesterday was starting to talk up again. Hey, you know, maybe instead of cutting so much from our debt, we should just focus on growing the economy. Oh my gosh. All right. This is like economics 101. Okay. There are three ways to pay down the debt or make the debt meaningless.
Okay. Number one, you inflate your way out of the debt. Not great. It's painful. raises consumer prices. You don't want to do that. Number two, austerity to some extent. This is kind of like what Doge tries to do. Cut, cut, cut as much as possible. Do more with fewer people. And this is sort of like the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
Think like Greece 2012, 2013 or whatever where they didn't even have enough money to collect the trash. Just look up Athens sovereign debt crisis trash collection. You'll see it. Nobody likes austerity. That's a bad way to get out of debt. Uh, I mean, I get it. Sometimes it's necessary. Sort of like a Javier Malay chainsaw, but it usually forces you into a recession.
Argentina went into a recession after the chainsaw came out. The third option is simply to grow your gross domestic product faster than the debt is growing. You can measure this with debt to GDP, which when we look at debt to GDP charts, uh, we're actually not doing so terribly. I know it's obviously frustrating that the nominal level of our debt is as high as it is, but when we look at the total public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, we are definitely elevated.
We're not as elevated as we were post the pandemic. That's because our economy grew. Our debt didn't go down. Our economy grew. So, how could you get this percentage down? Grow the economy faster. It's just sort of another way of suggesting, hey, we can make money for this country. Now, I'm a big fan of that.
I'm a big fan of growing your way out of uh debt, mostly because it's the least painful. It's the best for consumers. It's kind of like buying real estate and getting a 30-year mortgage on it, and then your income goes up over time while your payment stays the same. It makes that debt easier to pay off over time.
No. Steven Moore, who's a Heritage Foundation chill, had an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, and he bags on the Congressional Budget Office, saying they're basically unelected bureaucrats bagging on Donald Trump's tax plan. In fairness, that's their job to say, hey, like over the next 10 years, this tax plan is going to cost us $4.6 trillion.
Sure, it might be deficit neutral over the next few years, but over the long term, it's going to cost us money. Their job is to tell us that. So our representatives, hopefully they can actually do their job for us, look at it and go, are we willing to pay that bill? Because if it said hundred trillion over the next four years, I'd guess they'd all vote no.
If it said negative $11 trillion over the next 10 years, I'd guess they'd all say yes. When they say 4.6, it actually gets some people going, "Huh, all right." You know, should we add in another source of revenue? Should we take out some of the cuts? it. Let's debate happen. Stephen Moore from the Heritage Foundation doesn't care.
He thinks this is an unelected body. And uh we must be, as he says in his words, saved from the Congressional Budget Office. See, save us from the CBO. Put that on my trash pile. I have now read it. Recycle pile. Kevin, recycle. You are German. You understand the difference of this recycling bins and recycling programs.
All right. Uh so now we got to talk about China a little bit. for house hack 5% yield and all the upside in the stock uh you know post conversion is available at houseack.com. So if you want to diversify a bit from all this craziness in the market house.com check it out. Uh at least 30 days away from closing the round but the sooner you invest the sooner you get your 5% yield.
And remember, there's risk with every investment, but we think it's kind of a cool private investment to get 5% and the upside in the stock. Uh, check that out at houseack.com and you can invest directly through there. Now, uh, China open to nonacredited investors, by the way. So, you can even invest with a credit card.
I mean, I'd prefer you a because it costs house hack less money, but if you wanted that flexibility, you could do it. All right. on China. Through the tariff warfare, we have seen China become more self-reliant over time. Uh in fact, in 2018, they regularly pitched how their goal was to become a nation that's almost wholly reliant on their own manufacturing.
And what I think is kind of wild is that when China manufactures robotics, like humanoid robots or arm robots or whatever they're doing, 90% of the parts of those robots are coming from China. And that's because starting in 2018, they started plowing money into incentives in critical industries like semis, AI, EVs, rare earths, etc.
They don't have some of the government spending burdens that, well, frankly, the US economy does. uh and this has really enabled them to subsidize companies like BYD and CL to receive billions of dollars US dollars. All of this is US dollars based uh and uh both those companies have spent a combined $20 billion USD on research and development just over the last 3 years.
It's mind-blowing because you're seeing this explosion and advancement in technology. And in part, it's because China is doubling down on reinvesting in its own country. Now, this is what Donald Trump is trying to do. The problem is it's very expensive because of uh expensive labor costs, expensive union uh associations with labor.
Uh and this is not an argument for against unions. It's just simply to say it is what it is. Uh the additional taxes that we have to pay in in the programs that we have to pay in the United States relative to what you can pull off in China. This is now enabling China to really expand their own SpaceX style competitors.
Uh, however, you still have, I mean, which we have here as well, but you still have fraud and government waste problems in China. You have a real estate slowdown in China that really mask some of the true progress that they're making in some of these more critical industries. But it is interesting because China is really paired back on their reliance on not just the United States, but other countries.
In 2024, imports to China fell to less than 18% of their GDP. That's significantly smaller than what it previously was. And the idea is China's trying to do everything they can to have everything they need in house so they can really never be threatened by the 2018 style tariffs that caught China off guard in 2018.
They were ready for them this time alone. And this is why a lot of people think that China can really get through these 2025 tariffs at even the levels they are now or maybe even a little bit higher and that the US could bear the brunt of some of the challenges with it. So, uh, with that said, let's get into a before and after.
Uh, some of you had asked me to do another before and after on house hack. So, here we go. All right. Welcome back to another before and after on house hack. So, this is a property we bought in 2023. And, uh, as you could see, this is a very unlivable property. Some of you have been asking me to show before and after Matterport scans of some more properties.
And so, I always like this one just because it's it's a crazy hoarder mess and we have the 3D tour of it. Sometimes we'll buy a hoarder mess and then we don't end up getting a 3D tour before it's all, you know, before it's cleaned up. So, in this case, we were able to get a scan before it was cleaned up.
And I mean, you can see flooring is missing. There's decay and trash and debris everywhere. Uh, I mean, this is there's poop on the floor. This is not a livable property, right? This is not a safe property to live in. You can see the landscaping here. Overgrown disaster back here. I mean, there's there's a lot going on inside of this property.
And it's really sad because, you know, this is an elderly person who just doesn't have the help. They can't really do anything. You know, they they need help to get out of this situation. There's too much stuff. There's too much debris. There's too much grime. I mean, this is a very unsafe living environment.
Again, poop on the floor, debris everywhere. I mean, look at that dishwasher. It's just absolutely nasty. Every part of this property is just pretty bad. I mean, we could go over to the stairs as well. Uh, and here we'll just go straight into the second floor. There we go. So, if we jump in over here, a lot of poo on the floor.
Look at this. I mean, this is not a way to live. There's poo everywhere. This is highly unsafe, highly disgusting. And so, you know, people always say or, you know, very few people because most people have like brains and and they realize that what we're doing is a service to communities. We're adding to the housing stock, right?
Like this person needs help. They need to like live in somebody else's home or in a care facility. They can't live alone. And as long as they're here, a family is prevented from living here in a healthy way because this isn't safe for even this person. So, if we can come in and clean it up and make it livable again, a family can live here.
and should we sell it at some point in the future? Then uh somebody can buy it. But right now, we're adding to the rental stock by renovating these sort of properties. So, let's go into the uh the master over here and uh you'll see a little bit more. I mean, here's the laundry room. Just nasty and filthy.
Pretty gross. I guess it's still Christmas time for her. I mean, there's your bathroom. Look at that. Do you want to Do you want to sit on that and go to the bathroom on that? At least they got the big gulp. It's disgusting. It's It's really really sad. Uh and it's not fair to anyone to live like this.
You know, just throw your Coke bottles, your bean cans, and just subsist so hot because your AC doesn't work. You need three fans just to survive. This is sad. So, what Houseack did in this case, because they were going to go to foreclosure, is we bought it and uh we we paid cash for it. So, we were able to close before the foreclosure and uh and then, of course, we renovated the property.
All right, here is the after. So, take a look. This is what House Hack does. Absolutely gorgeous. 2-in faux wood blinds over here. Clean light fixtures. All the screws are aligned. New paint, new flooring. Did you recognize there was a fireplace last time? you probably didn't, which is kind of awesome.
We're able to do this. You know, you clean up the bathroom, you make the bathroom nice and clean and functional again. Uh, you come in over here, get into the kitchen. The kitchen's actually I mean, you remember they had this like weird little island cart over here, and the dishwasher was disgusting.
So, we have a new dishwasher. Hardware, faucet, fridge, kitchen cabbies updated. the garage. I mean, you can see it's cleared out and it's an epoxied floor over here. It doesn't look like we have a scan in there, but um this is gorgeous. This is the kind of stuff we do and this is what adds value to neighborhoods and to people, but also to House Hack.
You know, House Hack makes money by doing renovations like this. So, uh you know, the equity that we gain by doing a project like this is sometimes somewhere around $100,000. uh which is remarkable because you know maybe we buy it for you know $450,000 put $60,000 into it it's 510 and let's say it's worth $610 that's $100,000 of equity right for uh for for doing the work for doing the countertops the bathrooms the toilets this is so much better and so if you want to join us in what we do what we do is we basically raise money we pay a 5% yield on our convertibles through conversion so we just pay that from our rents and uh and we use the money to go buy more real estate and then we get more rents and then we can raise more money.
You know, it's sort of a a cycle of just buying quality properties and upgrading them. Now, in this particular neighborhood, it depends on the value of the neighborhood. Usually, at a certain price, I don't like doing carpet upstairs. Uh usually, once we get into like the $800,000 plus range, we'll go all uh you know, laminate or or hardwood or whatever we're doing.
Um luxury vinyl plank, you name it. But uh in this case for this particular neighborhood, carpet upstairs was actually very common and potentially even preferred. Some people like living with carpet upstairs. I don't see a problem with that. Uh but anyway, that said, this is uh this is the complete remodel over here.
Gives you a nice 3D before and after. If you found this interesting and you want to join us over at Houseack, go to houseack.com. do read the paperwork for investing in Houseack. you get 5% upside or 5% yield paid uh from uh the uh you know where our valuation approximately is right now which is great.
Uh, I've invested $5 million into the same exact round because I really believe what we're doing is awesome. And as we scale this business, uh, we're going to be able to, in my opinion, uh, introduce some fintech products related to buying fractional shares of of real estate. Uh, that's all down the road, years down the road.
We're focused on building out the portfolio now, but when we get to that point, we think we can really sort of Robin Hoodify real estate. We're really excited. So, come join us. Uh, check us out at hassac.com.
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