저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 경기가 전쟁 후 재건처럼 빠르게 회복된다고 보며, 성장주 중심의 강세장이 경기민감 가치주로 넓어지고 있다고 진단한다. 시위 사태와 관련해 ARK는 인종차별 반대 연대를 표명하고, 직원들이 선정한 단체에 기부하며 회사가 매칭 기부한다고 밝혔다. 고용 지표: 4월 비농업 고용은 2,070만 명 감소했으나, 5월은 시장 예상(750만~800만 명 감소)과 달리 250만 명 증가했다. 실업률은 4월 14.7%에서 5월 13.3%로 하락했다. 주간 평균 근로시간은 전월 대비 1% 증가해 연환산 약 12%에 해당한다. 임금 지표: 시간당 평균 임금은 전년 대비 6.7% 상승했으며, 주간 평균 임금은 전년 대비 7.7% 상승했다. 저축률: 4월 33%로 충격적 수준이었고, 5월에도 소폭 상승할 수 있다고 봤다. 정책: 재정·통화정책이 강하게 부양적이며, 트럼프 대통령이 급여세 인하 의지를 재확인했다. 이는 올해 고용 회복을 앞당길 것으로 기대된다. 시장 신호: 에너지·금융·소재·산업재 등 가치 섹터가 최근 강하게 따라잡고 있으며, 이는 강세장이 넓어지는 신호로 해석된다. 2016년 4분기 선거 후 가치주 강세 사례와 유사하다고 언급했다. 반면 헬스케어·필수소비재·소비서비스·기술은 상대적으로 약세다. ARK는 여전히 성장주에 더 집중하며 장기 지수함수적 성장을 중시한다. 혁신 테마: 스탠퍼드 연구에서 CRISPR Cas13 계열로 바이러스를 무력화하는 예방적 치료 가능성이 제시됐다(초기 단계). Excision Bio는 HIV 치료 가능성을 실험 중이다. CRISPR는 베타지중해빈혈, 낫적혈구병 등에서 치료 가능성이 확인되었고 유전자 치료 전반의 새 장을 열 것으로 보인다. 단기 요인: 옵션 만기가 시장 상승을 가속했다고 봤다. 전반적 분위기는 1주 전보다 훨씬 낙관적이다. 출연자 전망: 경기 회복과 강세장 확대에 대해 낙관적이며, 성장주 장기 우위를 유지하는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
as protests continue across the United States we believe it is important for us to speak up ARC our company and every team member stands in solidarity with the black community in their fight against systemic racism and oppression we ask our listeners to join us in speaking up against racial discrimination and please consider donating to an organization fighting for the equal treatment of fellow human beings hi everyone again this is Cathy wood CEO and CIO of arc invest well certainly never a dull moment and of course the events of the last 10 days 10 almost 2 weeks have been heartbreaking if you go to about arc on our web site at arc - invest calm you you can see our team and you can see the diversity of our team and you can see how we are all feeling a little bit down or we definitely have been feeling a bit down when when that happens in an organization like ours we want to lift each other up and so what we we have done in the last week is we've educated ourselves more and our our employees have selected some organizations to which we are going to contribute individually and Ark is going to match so if you'd if you'd like to learn more about those organizations you can you can go to our site about Ark we've certainly seen the tragedy of the last ten days to two weeks and I think the first assumption was ok now this is going to extend a recession it's this is going to be terrible and while it is terrible on one level on another level it is not going to extend the recession now I am speaking only in GDP terms here and what what reports we're going to see during the next a few quarters I think the analogy here is it's a little bit like wartime and in wartime there is of course destruction but then quickly the rebuilding effort takes place and and and what happens then is GDP increases and we know that the rebuilding phase is going to take place everyone wants it to get to get back on track and so this is actually going to be a boost to GDP certainly hasn't been a boost to our morale but it will be a boost to GDP so again the wartime analogy war time tends to be a stimulant to GDP and as you know when we've been thinking about the coronavirus we've been using an analogy the shock to the system with October of 87 and 9/11 being the two comparisons that made sense certainly to me having been through them both while being in the market and today's employment report corroborates that I think everyone was pretty shocked this morning to see non-farm payroll employment up for the month of May now just to give you a sense of the drama last month so April 4 April employment dropped twenty point seven million by twenty point seven million people and then the expectation was May would be another serious decline perhaps not as serious so the consensus expectation was seven point five seven point five million jobs lost in the month of May instead what happened is the economy created created 2.5 million jobs so the canoe since this estimate was off by roughly 10 million jobs that's how quickly this economy is turning around and it makes sense we know that the coasts were harder hit and we know that other states were basically saying come here we're open to do business certainly in the month of May and some of that may have happened the unemployment rate which last month was fourteen point seven percent and which most economists expected to go to twenty percent in fact the estimate for May was nineteen percent instead of going up it dropped from fourteen point seven percent to 13.3% nothing to brag about but the trajectory is in the right direction now and the hoursworked numbers were phenomenal the average weekly hours worked I increased in just one month by it was well in the manufacturing sector two point one percent that's the manufacturing hours worked and the average weekly hours worked for the entire economy went up 1% many people don't know this but that number actually moves the needle more often than the employment numbers themselves that work week is a very powerful number and I've rarely seen it go up by one percent over one month that's annualizing at roughly 12% rate so this was a pretty surprising report the average hourly earnings I know were up actually they declined they declined and it's a mix so this is the opposite of what happened during the crisis so those jobs lost tended to be the lower wage jobs so last month the average hourly earnings month-to-month again were up 4.7% a clue that that a lot of us were working from our homes this month or the for the month of May they the average hourly earnings dropped one percent year-over-year they're up 6.7% still which is roughly double where we were before the coronavirus and the average weekly earnings were up on a year-over-year basis seven point seven percent so last week we talked about the saving rate up at 33 percent for April and that was pretty shocking I still think it could go up again slightly for the month of May but if it doesn't it's because the economy really is kicking up in it kicking in in a big way and and we're on our way what I'd like to talk about now is what we're seeing in the markets from a signaling point of view and and this is partly because fiscal and monetary policy are highly stimulative and today we just saw that President Trump reiterated his desire to cut payroll taxes my guess is that is for this year to get people back to work much faster so hopefully that does happen the confluence of this information is that the the market the stock market is smelling a big cyclical recovery we've talked about the value sectors really lagging behind the rest of the market and the value sectors primarily energy financial services materials and industrials they had been lagging badly and in the last week 10 days they have started to catch up pretty significantly now and and and those those four categories were the best performers just an even month to date for June those are the four best categories healthcare consumer staples consumer services and tech are the the weakest categories and of course they have been the strongest now how do we feel about this we are very much more focused on growth than anything else future growth and in fact exponential growth but we feel it's very important for cyclical sectors to start participating in the bull market if for no other reason than cyclical cyclical reasons and the the reason for that is this means that the bull market is broadening out it's becoming stronger we had a similar experience in the fourth quarter of 2016 in the fourth quarter right after the election with the promises of tax cuts and so forth the stock market took off against expectations and value the value space was the strongest part of the market for that quarter the market was up value was the strongest was was even stronger and actually growth most of the growth sectors had a negative quarter and I remember saying when we had to explain ourselves back then that we actually thought this was a good thing from a bull market perspective and we believe that that it would be a launching pad at some point for the next leg of the outperformance of the kinds of stocks that Ark focuses on and that turned out to be the case 2017 was the strongest the strongest performance that I've had in my entire experience and I've been in this market for more than 40 years so I do think that we're in a little bit of a replay mode there and and then I'd like to just focus on some interesting developments in the innovation space and this is very early stage but just gives you a sense of how much is happening in the genomic revolution Stanford University put out a study it involved castes 13 not caste 9 which is what we're primarily involved with right now this is very very early in the research stage but provide such hope and it seems as though caste 19 is going to be able to disable viruses by scrambling the genetic code and so here is a case of using CRISPR a different flavor of CRISPR not just for Diagnostics but actual for actually for therapies and not even for therapies after the fact but prophylactic therapies to prevent any corona virus and I'm sure it goes beyond corona viruses so that was pretty exciting and even earlier perhaps is another piece of news CRISPR using being used by excision bio therapies and which is licensing IP from Temple University basically announced that again very early-stage very early clinical studies but they're experimenting and they believe that they will be able to cure HIV so right right now HIV is a chronic disease Gilead has been the the maestro in terms of controlling bringing that disease under control but it is possible that CRISPR therapies in the future could cure that disease and that's true for CRISPR generally where we're looking at potential cures we've seen again very early stage and we've seen cure beta thalassemia sickle cell disease HIV I don't think this is out of primate studies yet but if HIV is possible we're on to a whole new chapter for for CRISPR and gene therapy broadly so today as an exciting day because the market the bull market has broadened out I do think one reason is options expiration so I think that turbocharged things a bit so with the good economic news and and and a broadening bull market I'm in a good mood and this is certainly a much better mood than about a week ago in general and I'm looking forward to the rebuilding of our economy and relationships and we look forward to staying in touch with you so thanks very much you
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