저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
대법원의 트럼프 관세 위헌 판결(6대3)을 호재로 해석. 관세는 세금이므로 제거되면 성장에 긍정적이고 인플레이션 압력도 낮아진다고 주장. 미국 실질 GDP는 1.4%로 예상보다 낮았으나 무역적자 수정, 셧다운 왜곡 때문이라 설명. 자본 유입·감세·규제완화로 미국 투자자본수익률 상승을 기대하며, 방산 기술주의 하락은 알고리즘 과잉반응으로 봄. 실질 인플레이션은 1% 미만으로 추정하며 향후 3~6개월 내 0% 근처 또는 마이너스 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
this administration. Uh the Supreme Court just struck down uh Trump's tariffs. Uh the the ruling passed 6 to 3. So, uh not even close, actually. And uh there are a couple of things we're taking away from this. Uh number one, what the Supreme Court is saying is uh President Trump has to go through Congress in order to put tariffs or other tax increases in place.
And as you know, we've called tariffs tax increases. I don't like tax increases. Most people don't like tax increases. Uh so, you'll notice that the equity markets are up today, and the bond market is not selling off that much. So, uh this was getting into the market, I think. There was um uh there there were a lot of people suggesting that the Supreme Court would do just this.
Now, of course, um President Trump has come out uh and said, "Okay, fine. 10% tariff across the board then." Uh and again, that will probably have to go back to the Supreme Court. Um I think that Trump doesn't want to lose negotiating leverage with the rest of the world. Uh but there's something else going on.
If you've noticed uh what he's been doing in recent weeks, um in response to the affordability crisis, is he has been taking tariffs off of categories like uh beef and coffee and furniture. Uh and, you know, necessities. So, that's very interesting. He also wants to see inflation, headline inflation, going down.
Uh and so, I think that um this 10% tariff talk uh is just that. He doesn't want to lose leverage in negotiating with other countries. And if you think about it, he has been getting some very significant deals having to do with foreign direct investment in the United States uh to res restore our manufacturing base.
And of course, a lot of that is around technology and and the new tax law which accelerates depreciation dramatically. So we do think the return on invested capital in the United States is going to go up because of deregulation and tax cuts and we're going to have a lot of foreign direct investment.
Now, one of the characterizations of trade deficits which President Trump believes are disastrous uh is that, you know, the rest of the world is really taking business from the United States because of unfair trade practices. And he has been using this negotiating leverage around tariffs to create a more even playing field.
I don't know how much leverage he's lost here, but if if you look at the last year of the trade deficit, it has not gotten better because of tariffs. In fact, if you measure it in terms of goods, it's gotten worse. As many of you know, our position on trade trade deficits is different from that of President Trump because the other side of a trade deficit is a capital surplus.
And a capital surplus, we think that is going to go up because of foreign direct investment, because of our new tax rules. Now, algorithms in the market and when there's fast-breaking news, it is the algorithms and high-frequency traders that Uh, take advantage uh, of the breaking news. Uh, I think the first response uh, was, you know, to take the market down from what was a very nice update to something uh, lower.
Uh, not lower on the day, but just taking some of the gains away. Now, the markets uh, the equity market's coming back. The bond market uh, sold off, uh, but it too is coming back. And uh, the yield curve interestingly uh, has has flattened a bit uh, as uh, long rates have not reacted the way that people expected them to, meaning uh, go up a lot.
So, I think the markets are treating this with a bit of a yawn. I will say that uh, the uh, more uh, innovation-oriented growth portfolios, especially aggressive growth portfolios, um, are having a bit of a setback. One of the reasons is defense tech. Uh, I think that uh, a lot of people feel that the uh, the that the uh, defense sector will be hurt uh, because we're going to have less revenue coming in from tariffs uh, to spend on defense.
And I just think that is I don't think that's going to happen. I think defense spending is going to continue a pace if not accelerate. Uh, so that's that's when you know algorithms are taking over when uh, something like defense uh, tech responds to this piece of news. Um, one other thing I'll just note since the numbers were out today, real GDP growth uh, was surprisingly low.
At one point, I think the Atlanta Fed estimated that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter would be 5.3%. Uh, it came out today at 1.4% and what happened? Well, the trade the trade numbers were revised down in other words into more of a deficit. So you can see even recently the tariffs haven't helped our trade deficit.
There also was the government shutdown and so we do think there were a lot of distortions in that number and um if anything with tariffs coming down if they are tax increases and tax increases hurt growth we believe. The opposite should be true now that they have been struck down. This should actually accelerate growth tax cut encourages more growth and it also will take some upward pressure away from our inflation statistics.
So the true inflation number as we've been saying for quite some time is lower than 1% now having peaked at 12% at the peak of the covid crisis. These are 10,000 consumer prices monitored 24/7 continuously. And so those pressures had already started coming off the inflation rate before this tariff announcement.
So they could get us the tariffs coming down actually could get us closer to zero or negative during the next three to six months. We shall see. So we're not worried about what's happened in a way as I've described it is a positive. I think we've been pretty consistent saying tariffs are a tax. Taxes are negative for growth.
We take them off and I think we'll probably see more growth this year than we otherwise would have. Uh so with that, I'll wish you all a happy weekend and uh look forward to next time.
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