저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드가 테슬라 로보택시를 직접 체험하며 자율주행이 사람 운전보다 안전하다고 주장하고, 장기적으로 운송비가 마일당 $0.25까지 떨어져 테슬라가 시장 대부분을 차지할 것이라 전망함. 자동차 생산은 2017년 정점 이후 감소할 것으로 봄. 주식 관련 단기 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I've been in a Waymo. I've been in a Waymo that Waymo that is not going to run us over. Thank you. Oh my gosh. Wow, we got a $75 ticket. Wow. This is something we hadn't thought of before. We're going to have to put this into a new line item in our model for Tesla. Tickets. I know. So, how does this compare to Waymo?
The Waymo rides were fine. They were fine. You know, I don't I think a little slow around construction site, but that that's all. So far with this one, no problem. You know, we've been doing our robo-taxi models for 10 years now. This is interesting. For 10 years now, you know, it's happened later than we thought, but as with many new innovations and new innovations, they come slowly, slowly, then all at once.
And I do think that Tesla entering the market is going to give analysts and investors an idea of what all at once means because by the end of this year, they will have statistics that they will be able to use as a basis to forecast next year. And that's when I think it's going to hit them how radically the Tesla model's going to change.
I think one big one surprise will be as the cost of transportation comes down, Tesla will probably start at using Uber's umbrella price, right? And so, they'll probably start, you know, $2.00 to $2.50 per mile, let's say, and it's going to go down from there. So, transportation costs are going to go down.
Tasha and team have concluded after forecasting that Tesla could get the cost down to $0.25 per mile when it's fully scaled out, no one expects that right now, except maybe Elon himself. And then, the other unexpected issue around this is as the cost of transportation falls, we'll get more of it unless a city does congestion pricing.
Uh I think the roads are going to become so much more congested. For every car in the United States, there are five parking spaces. Five parking spaces. With autonomous, let's just say everyone went autonomous, it would be only one. So, think about all of the That would be, you know, we'd be down to 20% of the parking lots.
Think about all of the real estate value that would unlock, but also think about from a city point of view, how much revenue a city would lose because they run a lot of the parking lot. So, you know, there are lots of puts and takes around this. This is interesting. We're just behind a bus which has its lights on.
There was If the Tesla had moved quickly, it could have avoided all this traffic, but it took the safer It waited, which makes sense. That's what Tesla's saying. That's what Elon's saying about, you know, these cars right now, making sure they're safer. Um and and, you know, help people understand how safe they are.
I think what what will what will change, and this is going to be state by state unless the federal government just comes in. Now that we know Waymo has showed this, and I think has shown this, and I think that Tesla will, too. We'll get the data to prove that autonomous driving is safer than human driving.
And it will only get better over time. It's just past humans in terms of driver safety. And so, and as you can tell, I am not worried at all. I'm not paying attention to what the car is doing cuz I do trust this so much, right? So, but when states understand that they're putting their populations at risk by not encouraging autonomous, which is safer than human driving.
We'll be able to count the accidents and the fatalities that have occurred because of human behavior versus the autonomous cars accidents. And I think we're going to learn pretty quickly and it's going to be on regulators. It will be, you know, they will be put to shame if they don't save lives by enabling autonomous mobility everywhere.
This was seamless. Okay, Kathy. It's comfortable in the backseat? Very nice. I tried out the the front seat as well. This is not the only robo-taxi per se in Austin. There's also Waymo's, there's Zoox, there's Avride. Why do you think Tesla and robo-taxi will be the winner in this space? Well, they've been training for 10 plus years with I think they have all together 7 or 8 million robots out there already.
I have two. I have a Model Y and a Model 3 and they've been training on Florida roads and Connecticut roads in my car. So they know all the things that can go wrong. They're called corner cases. Unless you have billions and billions of miles of data, you're not going to have all the corner cases out there what possibly could go wrong in this remote circumstance.
Tesla does. So I think that's one reason, but I also think it's cost structure. It's cost structure will give Tesla the opportunity to lower the price of transportation much more than Waymo and the others. Mostly because they are not vertically integrated and therefore they're dependent other manufacturers, typically auto manufacturers, who need their cut of profits.
So, Tesla will be able to offer rides for for much less. So, I think it will be winner-take-most market. I think Tesla will win most of the market, much like the Uber-Lyft, you know, Uber taking the lion's share of the market. I think Tesla will take Waymo will probably be the equivalent of Lyft. Speaking just like on a a more personal note, how does it feel to like be in a vehicle that's driving itself?
I know you've been researching this and talking about this for so many years, and like now it's happening. Yeah, how does it feel? It feels like I expected it to. Right? We've been projecting ourselves into this world for 10 years, and now we're here, and it feels very natural. So, what's it look like in 10 years from now?
Mhm, robo-taxis will be, I don't know how many more times safer uh than human-driven cars. In fact, Brett Winton, our chief futurist, who has very young children, three young children, he has been saying for years that when we look back at, you know, 10 years ago, certainly, my teenage years, his teenage years, we will describe cars as weapons of mass destruction, right?
Because there are, today, 35 to 40,000 deaths per year because of auto accidents in the United States. More and more of them caused by young people who are texting, and the accident rate had been going down for years and years and years, turned back up. Another call to regulators, we've got to change this.
So, I think the roads are going to be very safe, maybe very congested because the costs will come down so much as Tesla competes with everyone, again pushing people into the skies, air taxis, and so forth. you think will happen to the car industry as a result of robo-taxis? I think they I think they might end up being defense companies or something, you know, because we're pouring so much into defense tech and you know, they have factories and everything, but in terms of the production of cars, we think auto production will go down.
Now, this isn't overnight, right? We think auto production has peaked. It peaked a while ago, I think 2017, because of ride hail. A lot of people already are not buying cars because they use ride hail, right? So, oh, here we are. What do you think? Well, the fact that I was talking to you the whole time and didn't pay any attention to the ride itself means that I think it's completely safe.
That I have had a little bit of experience with it, that I knew that Tesla would be just as safe, if not safer than a waymo. So, that's one thing. And two, I'm excited for Tesla. I'm excited for Tesla shareholders. I'm excited for Arc's clients, because I do think now this slowly, slowly, slowly is moving into all at once.
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