저자: TonytheBaptist · 외국인
요약 보기
2023년 10월 3일 시장이 저점 근처에서 급락(SPX -60, NASDAQ -246, 변동성 지수 상승). 발표자는 0DTE SPX 브로큰윙 버터플라이(캐치 어 폴링 나이프)와 AVGO 10폭 풋 크레딧 스프레드(IV랭크 높음, 과거 성과 근거)를 제시하며, 두 전략 모두 소폭 수익(크레딧 수취)을 노리는 중립·수익 추구 구조임을 설명. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome to option trades today I'm Tony the Baptist and I have not one but two trade ideas for you today October 3rd 2023 where has the year gone let's take a look at where the Market's going &ps trading near their lows you can see their lows with just two handles at 4262 &ps down 60 A5 NASDAQ down 246 it's Carnage across the board with the Russell down 28 and the Dow down almost 400 volatility 1955 look at where it is it has reached this level on numerous occasions and then falling back obviously volatility can go higher it can certainly go lower we've seen it lower just a few weeks ago in the 15 handle key on volatility if you see volatility start down ticking start going to 1940 1935 1920 then maybe this Market can catch some legs to it but first I want to take a look at a trade that I looked at as catching a falling knife SX is what I'm going to you can see here that volatility is expanding in SPX The Ivy rank is 34 and man this spread is probably trading right there right now with the &ps making new lows let me show you what I did I did this live on the show just before we stopped the programming I did this at a 30 C Credit you can see it's oscillating back and forth between a 20 30 40 Cent credit the higher credit you put on this trade the better off it is for you why did I pick these strikes it's a broken wing butterfly which I've done numerous times on this show you've got a $20 expected move for today these are zero dated options we're getting questions on zero dated options and how would I look to trade them today with volatility expanding the way they are what would I do well I go to around the expected move and I put my break even near that expected move you can see the stock is trading 4225 if we go down $20 from here let's say uh from this moment on that the move is all to one side to the downside we should close around 42 and change which would make this spread worth money meaning I'm long 14225 put I'm short to 4215 puts this spread one by one would be worth $10 if we close at 4205 the spread that I'm synthetically short this 4215 4205 synthetically short that one because I'm long to $41.95 $10 lower that's how I have almost $1,000 in Risk on this trade this trade would be worth zero it would be where I would collect the 30 Cent credit right at 4205 if we close at 4215 that that $20 expected move 10 of its to the upside and we come back down to the downside this spread would be worth ,000 I collect $1,000 plus the 30 c credit that I put on for this trade so all I'm looking to do here is Catch A Falling knife either stay right here maybe I sell this spread for two or three or $4 if I get lucky that would be a $4 credit if I get lucky or if the stock rallies and the market is saved I just make my 30 cents that's how I would trade this trade that's how I would trade the zero day options for today all right let's take a look at what we normally like to look at I'm going to have this already set for ivx 5day change what am I looking to do I'm looking to trade something that has Ivy rank that's expanding I'm looking to trade something that doesn't have any earnings the first one that pops up is avgo down around $17 right now you can see over the last 5 days volatility expanded by 125% a matter of fact it's the largest across the board now you got to take that with a little bit of a grain of salt because avgo is an 800 plus dollar stock and avgo has wide markets that can skew volatility especially when you've got you know volatility uptick the way it is right now today but I will show you what I did in vgo I will load this up for you I put this trade on at $2.90 I went to around the 15 Delta on the on the put side that's 730 on the 45 day options and I bought to find risk because it is a $7 800 stock it's going use so much buying power you can't trade this in my opinion you can't trade this with undefined risk it just uses too much buying power I'm going $10 wide you certainly can go $20 wide I'm going $10 wide here 730 720 uh with the short Delta around the 15ish 16 Delta now with the stock down 17 and change and I'm doing an equal distance or an equal Delta to the upside I guess I could have gone to 920s with my short strike I went to the 910s the 910 920 and I did it for $293 credit you may be asking why avgo I get it that it's uh implied volatility is high get it that it's been expanding but when you go to Bob the trader here and you go to avgo and filter by avgo you could see here that I've had good success by putting these trades on uh when the ivy rank was lower than where it is right now and look at the credit I was receiving 288 282 I'm able to get 15 16 cents more for this uh spread that I'm putting on I was able to get $298 I I apologize $2.98 on this trade that I put on I thought I did it for 293 my eyes are not what they used to be 298 is what I was able to get for this spread it's not going to change the probability of profit it's that same 65% it does have a Theta of $460 that means I'm collecting $460 um on the overall trade the Delta is basically delta neutral my Max profit is obviously what I collected for the spread 298 what am I really looking to make on a spread like this 50 cents to a dollar what type of spread is this this is the type of spread that you put on when you already have other positions that you know are have a lot more risk in the overall Market avgo uh Market correlation is 61 so it's on the relative high side it will follow the market although you see it's been kind of going a lot more sideways what that same down return to the market that maybe the overall Market is is look at what's going on with this Market em S&P down 65 and change and volatility making new highs man we've got ourselves a market today and you want to know something you need stability in your trading account too go to tastytrade.com take advantage of all the different features that we have on the platform plus they'll even give you some cash for bringing your account to 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