저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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Vijay Kedia는 장기 투자의 핵심은 지식·인내·용기이며, 소형 산업 내 점유율이 작은 기업(작은 시장 내 소형사)을 선호한다고 설명한다. 그는 단기 실적을 기대하는 것을 잘못된 접근으로 보고, 10~20년 보유 관점에서 경영진의 청렴성과 성장 가능성을 본다고 말한다. ROE·ROCE 같은 재무비율보다 경영진 품질과 제품 생존력을 중시한다고 밝힌다. 구체적인 종목 가격 전망이나 수치 목표는 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
needs no introduction. Mr. Vijay Kyia joins in right now on the show. Vijay, thank you so much for being with us on Alpha Mogul. Thank you very much for inviting me here, N. It's a pleasure having you. Um, you know, I I've seen we've spoken about your history. I've seen some of uh the interviews that you've done with us in the past as well on different forums on different platforms.
You started off with very humble beginnings maybe a one lakh rupees in 1990 or 1991 and since then your wealth has compounded at an astronomical rate. I can't even begin to imagine could it be 40% 50% 60% 70% or maybe even more. Some of your ideas some of your stocks have worked beautifully. I mean I know of a couple of names like ages or some of the others which have compounded or which have grown 100 times since the time you bought them.
Uh it clearly shows that just like politics investing is the art of the possible and you've clearly believed in that. Yes, of course I do believe. I think it's the art of luck also. It's a law of attraction also as you are saying that if you think that you want to achieve I remember one dialogue of Shah Rukh Khan movies.
So this is what actually I truly believe uh that if you really love something or if you are passionate about something certainly universe certainly helps you to achieve that. So this is what my love towards investing is and as I said that I I have said that in various platform also that certainly investing is into my love, sweat and tears and joy and laugh and everything.
So maybe that might have played uh the trick. Yeah. But a lot of people uh Vijah who be who will watch this interaction we believe that and they do I mean they have the passion for equities they have the love for the equity markets but surely beyond love there is a process there is a method to the madness which leads to some people creating the kind of wealth that Vijay Kadia has created and some people not being able to create that kind of wealth.
No first of all let me tell you I have not done something great. I'm still far behind than the people who started with me investing into stock market. So as I actually I look at myself and I think that I'm a work in progress. So this is the first thing and how did it happen? If this is what you actually wanted to know, you are asking me that how did it happen.
So I would tell you that you learn from your mistakes. Until unless I have said this thing again said this thing in the past that if you have not failed in your life, you have actually not passed anything you know. So this is what failure actually teaches us a lot of thing. So I have also failed initially in my early in my career.
I have failed a lot of times maybe hundreds of times 500 times I don't remember actually. So if you learn from your mistakes then it's a lesson to you right? So but one thing is very important in investing which I have learned over the years is this as this is a a common quote of mine that knowledge courage and patience it this actually plays the uh trick you know but the most important thing is this.
Let's talk about knowledge. Sometime you can borrow the knowledge also like whatever Warren Buffett is doing for example you get to know maybe after after a month or maybe next day or after a year but that does not mean that you can also make the same amount of money right so knowledge can be borrowed to some extent and second thing is patience patience also maybe suppose if I am watching Warren Buffett that how did he make his money I can also sit buy the stock and sit tight that can be to some extent can also be copied but so far courage is concerned that is one thing which will come from your own senses it comes from your own body from on your character from it's a part of your personality because so that is very important so whatever little bit success I got into this market that is maybe because of the courage because the kind of quantity I bought you know so uh so that actually played an important role uh in my journey so far
so allocation becomes very important very important and would by courage would you also mean riding out the tough times or routing out the times where not necessarily tough but people tend to invest and want reactions to their investments with a certain bit of urgency stock it should it should move up in the next 1 month next 3 months next 6 months people tend to get disheartened if it doesn't move for a year do you believe that what by by courage you also mean that at times you got to ride a long lull in portfolios
of course you have to take everything in your stride if you ask me forget about one month I usually buy a stock which I know that is not going to perform maybe for next 6 months. Yes, because that is the time actually I'm taking to accumulate stock from the market and maybe the company has a turnaround but it will take at least 6 months or maybe 9 months or sometime maybe one year to reflect into the numbers.
So but people want to result in one one month or two months or six months that is that that is not the right approach to invest for long term and one only one mantra in stock market is to make uh to make money in market is to sit for long term only. You cannot make money until unless you have uh patience to hold for your stock for 10 years or 15 years or 20 years.
You certainly cannot make money in stock market. This is what I have experienced. Sure. Yeah. Okay. Uh one immediate topic before we move to how you generate alpha for your portfolio for your own portfolio and one thing that I heard you speak about very very recently is that people in the current environment should be betting on uh cleaner managements.
M now my question to you Vijay is this that large mid small almost everything looks expensive in the current market scenario or could be argued that it is reasonably expensive and what is not expensive are companies which either are bad or are good companies but have managements who do not get the premium but they are looking to turn around because this I know for a fact that there are enough managements out there who have now realized that Instead of siphoning off the money uh via the private account, it's better to let the market cap grow because their own wealth to the tune of their shareholding in the company grows and that is much more meteor.
Are you do you believe that that is an area that people should completely avoid when you say cleaner managements or are you happy betting on managements which were not clean until now but are now starting to become clean. I'll tell you there's difference between what you are saying and what I'm doing is this maybe uh I'm not a fund manager okay and uh I'm not managing others money and I'm managing my money only and that's of course that is limited so once I am invested in my uh whatever stocks I have selected after that I have to do nothing if I a fund manager and there is a constant flow of fund in my uh of money in my fund then I have to look for the stories is every now and then.
So to me actually there is nothing to do just to just to learn and just to read and just to get information just to keep a track on my investments. So for me five or six or seven or 10 stories are enough that's the size of your portfolio 10 companies 12 companies core portfolio is not below uh 10 shares.
My core portfolio majority of my portfolio if you uh that that would be not more than 10 shares. So for me to get a cleaner management and a management with a uh good track record I have to find only 10 shares. So I'm happy with that. If I have to invest in 100 shares and I have to keep I have to churn my portfolio every now and then just to because I do not have any pressure also that I have to maintain my NAV that I am I'm not accountable responsible uh uh to anybody.
So I think that is the difference uh uh between uh people like me and the fund managers. Yeah, true. Okay. So let's talk about people like you. Um and how do you generate alpha? We we are an alpha. We we call you an alpha mgul because you obviously doing something whereby you are beating the market handsomely by the money that you invest.
That's how you grew your money. You didn't have a large portfolio which has become larger. You had nothing and you've become larger. So you obviously generated alpha for your portfolio. How have you done that? Is it by obeying that principle of smile that you keep on talking about regularly? Yes, actually the smile is the principle behind this maybe my smile also you know uh let me tell you like even uh as per philosophy also if what you are doing and if it if it is not giving you a pleasure
if it doesn't give you a smile in your then you are doing something wrong. Okay. Okay. So now coming to the smile. So whatever uh little bit uh money I could actually create from this market. So after that when I evaluated that how did it happen that only not one stock not only ages logistics even at Loto or for that matter senator they went up 100 times in no times maybe in 10 years.
So how did it happen? Sure. So I just looked back and then I realized that smile was the concept behind that and maybe I was lucky that I I stuck to that principle. Okay. So this is what whatever alpha or beta whatever you are saying that was created because of the smile. So you want me to tell the concept?
Let's break it down. So smile is I think S stands for small or smile. Okay. So now uh S stands for small to small in size. When I say small in size that does not mean a small cap okay in a size small in size if a company is suppose having a market potential of market size of that product is say 2,000 cr and if the uh company size is say 100 cr or 200 cr I mean 300 cr that can also be called a small in size because it is having just 5% or 10% of the market share of that particular product.
So that that is small in size. So that is the phase where this company can give you a multiple return to investors small investor like us I'm not talking about the fund managers and all so any private investors with a small capital so this is what I uh realized so that uh because a large uh size shares maybe few shares can give you return for example like Maroti has given you handsome return in last three years maybe five times six time or seven times but there would be hardly any four five shares which are going to give you that kind of return and whenever you are going to buy those shares it would be it's an expensive buy.
So maybe small investor would register to buy an expensive shares. So this is what I mean by smalls size company at a reasonable because that time they are available at a reasonable valuation also. So chances are that you can multiply your money uh many times not in percentage terms maybe 10 times 20 times or 50 times or why not 100 times.
So that is why I prefer to invest in a company which is smaller in size. Okay. Smaller in size means smaller in that industry. Not necessarily small cap. No, not a small cap. Not necessary. It might be a midcap company but very small in its industry and therefore has a lot of potential to gain market share and become larger.
Am I correct? Absolutely correct. Understanding it correct? Yes. could be even a 2,000 cr sales company but even then it is very smaller in size because the market size is 50 50,000 cr or 20 30,000 cr got it okay I just have one small followup to that uh whenever whenever we read investment books or speak to general global managers or otherwise everybody lays emphasis on the return ratios the importance of cash flows all of which are very valid points but if your starting point is to buy a small company whereby it is difficult that the ROC, the ROE, the cash flows will all be measuring up to what is an ideal number.
How do you then distill which company to reject and which company to keep because you're starting off the on a on a on a on a slate wherein all of these ratios will not look attractive. Actually I do not give much importance to this ROC and ROC and all ROE and all across your investments. Yeah. You've never bought a stock based on these?
Yeah. Based on these I never bought any stock. It should be reasonable. You cannot get a small company. You cannot get ROC or are you 20 or 25 then stock would also be expensive. It has to be below five. Okay. Or whatever parameters whatever parameters you are you are saying it shouldn't match them.
Then price will be uh dearer. It will be expensive. So I usually do not see all these things. I see couple of things only. One thing is uh which will come into that smile concept which will come which will cover in the smile concept. So I cover I just only see that if the management is okay all right and they have a clean track record and they have fire in the belly and there is a potential the company can uh grow its turnover year on year for next 10 15 years then I can sit in this company for 20 30 years.
Wow. So my approach is very simple. It's very very very simple approach and as I always say that investing is also very simple. It's very uh actually but it's not easy because we sometime try to make things complex. I will give you one example. This example I had given long back on some channel. I would like to repeat that if you allow me.
Of course. You remember that is there and Sablon is there. Okay. Both are doing the same thing. Okay. They are curing your wound. Okay. uh I read a long time back that market share of det is somewhere around 80% plus and savvlon is maybe 15% plus that is manufactured by rakit and recker and savon made by Johnson and Johnson's both are world-class conglomerate so why the market share of det could be more so I realized because when you apply that it burns it gives you odd order like bad smell it gives you feel okay my god I'm getting cured but sealon doesn't burn or doesn't give you any bad smell also so many people thinking it is not curing me.
So this is what h what is happening in in our investing also if I give you a lot of complex data 50 data I will put in front of you then you go mad small investor do not have that kind of capacity to understand those data okay it is better than you invest through mutual fund okay and don't bang your head in the market so my approach as per my education also my approach is very simple
even now even now also Yes, obviously you see once when you come into the market that time you can say a small investor or a new investors uh he looks for EPS he's very much fascinated about EPS or what is the EPS and what is the P ratio and all and when you grow with time then you look for the top line you forget about the EPS EPS grows EPS comes down what is the top line of this company that is more fascinating uh ratio you can call it and after that actually you are looking for the concept what is the concept in this in the product is it innovative or not it it has a mode or not it is competitive or not then or this concept will work or not so this is what you begin your
natural progression progression right so nowadays actually what I am thinking as you said even now see even now I am what I'm thinking that can I be a part of this company for 30 years or not this is what actually nowadays I'm asking myself would I be able to remain with this product with this company till I live this is what I'm educating I'm trying to come to that terms where I have to think forget about this ROC roe or whatever all these things would I be would the product survive for 20 years not because of in the era of this disruption would the product survive for 50 years or 20 years or 15 years or not if it would survive it will keep on taking the market share then I'm with the
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