저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테슬라 33% 급락 후 기술주 조정이 이어지며 일부 위험 요인이 있지만, 테슬라는 피보나치 지지선(약 330달러) 부근이라 소액 분할 진입은 고려할 만하다는 입장. [기술주 조정의 네 가지 근거] - 실적 발표에도 주가가 오르지 않는 종목은 고평가 신호로 본다. - 재택근무 수혜 종목에서 오프라인 소비·외식·여행 등 경기민감주로 자금이 이동 중이라고 본다. 경기민감주로 항공, 호텔, 소매, 외식, 전통 완성차를 언급했다. - 2020년 11월 대선에서 바이든이 앞서고 있으며, 바이든 당선 시 자본이득세·법인세 인상으로 주당순이익과 순이익이 낮아질 수 있다고 우려했다. - 기술 대형주가 S&P500의 약 25%를 차지해 지수 쏠림이 크고, 애플은 1조 달러에서 2조 달러까지 21주 만에 올랐는데 자사주 매입·주식분할·회계 기법 영향이 크다고 지적했다. [자금 흐름 및 소프트뱅크] - 소프트뱅크 비전펀드가 40억 달러어치 기술 대형주를 사고팔아 수익을 냈고, 대규모 선물 거래가 시장 거래량을 키웠다고 설명했다. [캐시 우드(ARK) 매매] - 최근 매매 내역에서 ARK가 테슬라를 소량 추가 매수해 비중을 약 10%로 맞췄고, 애플은 매도했으며, 닌텐도를 매수했다고 밝혔다. [테슬라 기술적 분석] - 피보나치 되돌림 지지선이 약 330달러이고 현재 주가가 여기에 있다. - 분할 전 기준 약 1,650달러에 해당하며 여전히 고평가 구간이라고 본다. - 다음 저항선은 320달러 위(약 10달러 차이)로 제시했다. - MACD 골든·데드 크로스는 과거 추세 전환을 비교적 잘 맞혔다고 주장했다. [결론 및 리스크] - 큰 포지션이라면 더 하락할 때까지 기다리고, 작은 비중이면 지금이 진입 적기일 수 있다고 봤다. - 조정은 어떤 우량 기업에서도 발생하며 상승 폭이 클수록 조정도 크다고 경고했다.
다듬은 글
breaking news guys tech stocks have continued to sell off with tesla having its largest ever decline of over 33 percent from its recent highs the other tech stocks have also continued to sell off such as amazon facebook alphabet nvidia and even zoom who do the video conferencing services it seems many of these work from home names which have had a major run-up are now facing a big pullback but what has caused this correction and could this be a great opportunity for you guys to buy on the dip well in this video i'm going to answer these questions and more if you watched my previous video i highlighted how to identify the buy points on many of these great stocks it was a live stream so you can check that out on the link below but in this video i'm going to go over four rational fears which could spur even more selling in addition i'm going to reveal kathy woods latest trades for arc invest has she been buying more shares of tesla on this dip all will be revealed in this video and if you appreciate more live updates like this feel free to give the shows this video to more people so if that being said let's get into it rational for year number one and this is a red flag you should watch out for you should watch out for stocks which don't increase upon great results we saw this last week when some of the tech names produced earnings and they didn't see a major increase in their share price to me this says that the stocks are overvalued and it's something you should watch out for rational fear number two this rotation is about a return to normality during the health crisis we saw many of these tech giants benefit massively from people staying at home but with lockdowns being lifted across the globe are some of these names now overvalued as people start to shop in more brick and mortar retail stores go outside more eat out in more restaurants and even travel more money is an interesting thing in the capital markets it's neither created nor destroyed a little bit like energy it's only converted from one place to another so if tech stocks are selling off where's the money going well according to major analysts and traders a lot of this money could potentially be going into cyclical stocks which do very well during great economies so what are some examples of cyclical stocks well we have airlines hotels retail restaurants automakers and i'm talking traditional automakers here not tesla they all benefit from a booming economy and these are the stocks as the smart money moves from tech into those stocks and the third rational fear is the presidential contest now even if you're from the uk you should keep up to date with the us economy because it's the world's largest economy and whoever's running that big juggernaut affects the world and the capital markets massively and it turns out biden is currently leading trump as far as the polls are concerned as to this election but at this point you're losing first of all i'm not losing because those are fake polls they were fake in 2016 and now they're even more fake however the issue is biden is not as business friendly as trump and he wants to roll back capital gains and corporate tax cuts which trump introduced this means lower earnings per share and lower net profit for you investors and number four on my list is the major rational fear which is the high valuations and large concentration of capital in tech the tech giants make up around 25 of the s p 500.
this is incredible the fact that those stocks move so high actually dragged the entire s p 500 up despite the economy going through troubled times to put things in perspective about how much these tech stocks have actually run up it took apple 42 years to reach one trillion dollars in value however it took just two more years to get to two trillion dollars and even more stunning all of apple's second one trillion dollars came in the past 21 weeks while the global economy shrank faster than ever before so how did apple increase by another one trillion dollars in just 21 weeks well apart from a lot of the exuberance into these tech stocks they also went and did a hell of a lot of buybacks they did a stock split and they did some accounting trickery so with apple their revenues and profits are not balanced with this current valuation so i believe they will see a major correction although i do believe the company is a great business the way they have inflated their stock price needs to be taken into account apple was just buying back their own shares to inflate the price for example if berkshire hathaway did this they have over 100 i believe 120 130 billion dollars of cash on hand and if they decided to buy back their shares you'd see that share price effectively double but they're not doing it because berkshire hathaway and warren buffett they're more long-term investors so they're not just trying to satisfy the short-term shareholder apple is trying to satisfy the short-term shareholder now this is just something you guys need to be aware of and that is why for me personally i'm not purchasing any more shares of apple at the moment and even during this crash so apart from the exuberance behind these tech stocks which occurred during lockdown softbank fund which has been called the whale of the stock market this is a hundred billion dollar vision fund which allegedly said that they would just be investing into startups um such as wework and many other of these sort of disruptive technology companies however kind of turned into a high frequency trading firm and they bought four billion dollars worth of the high-flying tech giants and then they sold them off and made four billion dollars in profit now this whale making these big moves in the futures market does have a knock-on effect to the stock market traders will see this increasing volume four billion dollars flowing into these tech stocks and they will trade with this volume imagine it's like the tides coming in and the traders will all row with the tide not against it but when this company sold its futures options it made four billion dollars profit and that could have been the straw which broke the camel's back so what about arkhamvest we all know kathy wood is a major tesla bull and she has to keep tesla at 10 in her portfolio now i did a video a few weeks back and i told everybody kathy wood was selling and she was taking some profits to keep her fund below 10 as were many of the great hedge funds and i did videos on this which you guys can check out now this was a word of warning for all you investors out there because at the end of the day i want the best thing for you guys and my mission on this channel is to help as many of you guys become financially free through investing and trading so i gave this warning to everybody i said the major investment firms are selling off um goldman sachs was selling off i said kathleen wood was selling off and i said the technical analysis said tesla was going to fall and a lot of you guys some of you listen some of you said ben thanks for that video very informative i've just rebalanced my portfolio some of you said no i'm ignoring it it's no problem for me i'm fine and it's fair enough i'm just giving you guys um the facts and then you guys can make your own decisions because like i say on this channel it's not financial advice but let's say you did listen to those videos you would have rebalanced your portfolio cash and profits at the same time the smart money was cashing their profits but then when the dip happened you could have got back in at a better price and now that and that's exactly what kathy wood has done so i just got these latest trades through for the 8th of september and as you can see here kathy wood has been selling that some of the tech stocks who sold facebook um only small stakes for their rebalancing um they've bought shares in nintendo and they've been buying more shares in tesla as we can see here they've been buying a few shares in tesla just to keep tesla at 10 in their portfolios they've been buying more shares here in tesla they've been buying a few more shares into you apple they've been selling so maybe she's maybe she's watched one of her previous videos um on apple's buybacks and these firms aren't stupid they know what these companies are doing if apple's just buying back shares to inflate its share price these companies know apple's a great company but it can still be overvalued tesla another one there so she's been buying shares of tesla just to keep their position at 10 and then another one here all on the 8th of september but the irony of all these trades is what i've been saying on my past three to four videos portfolio rebalancing is great because it forces you to sell high and buy low remember all these profits in the stock market are only paper profits until you sell so the idea really when you're rebalancing is to know what position do you want these certain stocks to take up in your portfolio like kathy wood has tesla taking up 10 of her portfolio when it gets over she sells makes profits and diversifies her portfolio across multiple stocks when it drops she buys more and gets the stock at a better price it makes sense this also adds another warning to investors for those of you which have just started investing in the past few months or during the market crash this is a word of warning stocks don't only go up even those in great companies there is always a correction there is always a pullback no matter how great the company is and usually the bigger the run-up the bigger the pullback that's why tesla's seen the largest pullback so far so here we go i've got the the technical charts up for tesla i went over this in the previous video just to show you guys and we'll see how my predictions have been so far so from the fibonacci retracement it put a support line at around 3 30 um and that is roughly where we're seeing the price right now at 3 30 down minus 21 i did say to you guys previously that is actually not a bad time to get in there if you missed out on tesla and you want just a small stake it's not a bad time but the stock still does have a high valuation even at these levels because remember this is post stock split so 330 times five remember prior to the stock split that's still one thousand six hundred and fifty dollars per share prior to the stock split now if you remember looking at the stock price then in saying one thousand six hundred and fifty dollars a share for tesla that's a lot then it's still that price now even with this thirty percent correction however we are in a new market the stock split has happened it may entice more retail investors so if you want a chance to get into tesla this could be an opportunity for you guys it has broke through this fibonacci line here my next resistant line is at 320 dollars per share so there's not a massive amount in it if you're buying a small stake so that's a ten dollar difference in price um if you're buying a big position then it's worth waiting for it to drop more if you just want a small position now could be a good time to get in there just as kathy wood has done on the macd we can see the signal and the moving average has crossed over and basically when when a crossover occurs that means a trend reversal is lightly so at the top here we had a crossover on the overbought and then there was a sell-off so it's been fairly accurate on the past few runs of tesla here for example there's a little bit of a crossover and then it shot up and these are just technical indicators so another cross over here the stock has broken through slightly through this line but 330.
so that's just a brief overview of tesla for the other stocks and more on tesla's buy points check out my previous video for reasons why tesla wasn't included into the s p 500 check out my video on that so who can't wait for the market to open if you guys are in the uk just to let you know the market opens in new york i believe at 9 30 a.m in eastern time which is around 2 30 p.m in the uk the market closes in the uk at 9 00 pm um which is around four four o'clock in new york eastern time that's just to give everyone an update there so what do you guys think of the tech sell-off what do you think of tesla's largest decline in history let me know in the comments below let me know if you're buying the dip let me know if you're invested into cyclical stocks i want to hear all your thoughts below and if you want more of these live update videos let me know in the comments and i'll do more of these off the cuff updates if you appreciate valuable content like this feel free to appreciate it a lot will see you guys in the next video invest safe
Comments 0