저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 전기차·자율주행 확산으로 석유 산업이 붕괴하고 유가가 장기적으로 하락할 것이라고 주장한다. 석유 산업 전망: 자율주행 전기차는 하루 약 60%를 운행하는 반면 현재 내연차는 약 5%만 운행하므로, 차량 주행거리(VMT) 기준으로 석유 수요에 큰 영향을 준다고 봤다. 유가는 2008년에 정점을 찍었고 이후 고점이 계속 낮아지고 있으며 이 추세가 이어질 것이라 주장했다. 유가 전망: 개인 의견으로 10~20년 내 배럴당 55~60달러 수준에서 한 자릿수(단일 달러)까지 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 단, 자사 리서치로 검증한 것은 아니라고 밝혔다. 중동 지정학 리스크로 단기 급등 가능성은 인정했다. 전기차 가격 전망: 테슬라가 가격을 낮추고 있어 2년 내 평균 전기차 가격이 도요타 캠리(약 2만5천 달러) 아래로 떨어지고, 2023~2024년경 평균 1만5천 달러 수준이 될 것이라 예상했다. 이미 전기차의 총소유비용(TCO)이 낮아 우버 기사들도 테슬라 비용을 묻는 등 전환을 고민 중이라고 언급했다. 전통 자동차 산업: 정비 매출 비중이 큰 전통 자동차 산업과 딜러 모델이 큰 타격을 받을 것으로 봤다. 철도 산업: 현재 철도 화물 운송비는 톤마일당 약 12센트이나, 자율주행 트럭 군집(platoon)은 약 3센트로 가능해 철도를 처음으로 저가로 앞설 수 있다고 주장했다. 철도 산업은 이에 대비가 안 되어 있다고 평가했다. 철도 노선은 사라지기보다 고속철도 등으로 용도 변경될 가능성을 언급했다. 리스크: 중동 지정학 변수로 유가가 단기 급등할 수 있고, 철도 노선 전환은 통행권 등 재협상 문제가 따를 수 있다. 출연자는 아크 인베스트 CEO이며, 영상 제목·설명란에 별도 인물 정보가 없어 주 출연자 소속은 아크 인베스트로 표기했다.
다듬은 글
arkhamvest is an investment firm which focuses on disruptive and innovative technology from gene editing to robotics and 3d printing kathy wood is the founder ceo and chief investment officer at arc invest she has gained famed recently as her fund outperformed the market she even caused a lot of controversy by suggesting that tesla stock would hit fifteen thousand dollars per share tesla is currently the largest holding of ark innovations etf which has currently beat the market multiple times over it has outperformed both the s p 500 index and warren buffett's berkshire hathaway if you wish to find out how they did it let's dive in yeah yeah yeah come in there yeah go ahead smash that like button for the youtube algorithm that allows us to continue creating ould like have invested be sure to notified when i release future stock and another industry we see disrupted is the oil industry if you if you look at how um you have to you can't go by electric vehicles sold you have to go by electric vehicle miles traveled to understand the impact of autonomous vehicles on demand for oil autonomous vehicles will be electric and they'll be used 60 percent of the day whereas we just use our gas powered cars now five percent of the day so the vehicle miles traveled are going to grow we think exponentially i'll give you an example a personal example of how quickly my demands have changed effort oil i got my tesla model 3 a year ago in september now i grew up in southern california and so freedom as a teenager in california meant you get your license when you're 16 years old and um and i did and i've been uh going to the gas station every saturday every step is rhythm you know and built into my life for these many years right every saturday since i got my tesla model 3 i've gone to the gas station once look they've lost me they lost me commodity prices are made at the margin this is going to destroy commodity pricing and i mean oil pricing now we may have flare-ups with saudi arabia you know and and and we've seen that recently and you know there could be all kinds of geopolitical uh turmoil that you know will levitate oil prices but from a secular point of view we think they peaked in 2008 and each high has been lower than the last one and we think that will continue and we'll probably unwind oil prices and this is my personal opinion we haven't actually crossed teas and dotted eyes in our own research but i think we will go back into single digit oil prices per barrel you know from 55 60 where they are today um you know within the next 10 to 20 years wow and when do you see almost this mass adoption of electric vehicles happening when you know we've all been told about you know driving around the streets everyone's got a tesla how how realistic is that in the years ahead we believe that the average electric vehicle price mostly because tesla is pushing the envelope here will drop below that of the of a toyota camry within two years so that means that it will drop below 25 000 and that it will continue down and that by 2023 2024 we will be looking at the and this is us dollars the average vehicle price at 15 000 it'll be a no-brainer to switch to an electric vehicle already the total cost of ownership is lower for an electric vehicle so much so that i've had uber drivers ask me about my tesla the costs and so forth so they're seriously thinking about switching over so as soon as that happens the price is going below uh gas powered more and more people will be trying out these electric vehicles and they'll see that they're a better driving experience so we think the shift is going to be pretty rapid and that and the traditional auto industry and traditional auto dealership model with a servicing as such a big part of their revenue base is going to be in real trouble and and another industry we see disrupted since you're asking about value traps and these are all value traps is railroads and the railroad industry today now this is in the united states and i'm sure it's different in each country but not too different the cost the cost per mile for freight to go from point a to b in a human uh driven truck is about 12 cents per ton mile by rail today that that number is four cents per ton mile now it's this isn't point to point uh but still you know that's a big gap so there's a lot of freight transportation by rail we believe that autonomous truck platoons will be able to deliver freight for three cents per ton mile and so it will undercut rails for the first time ever and i don't think the railroad industry is ready for this we don't we don't hear many people talking about it well so no railways no petrol stations no car parks none of that required going forward you know i'm sure there won't be a disappearance i mean there will be a repurposing of rails i've we've been thinking about it could it be that we'll finally get our first you know high-speed rail system which we really don't have one in the united states no here yeah so maybe the rails which have been used for freight can be repurposed in some way you know i don't know if they can it may have to do with property rights rights of way and so forth that might have to be renegotiated but it is one uh possibility arc invest yeah yeah yeah yeah come
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