저자: 스탠리드러켄밀러 · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 비트코인을 금의 대체 가치저장 수단으로 보며 장기적으로 유망하다고 평가하나, 이더리움 등 다른 코인과 도지코인에는 회의적이다. 비트코인 관련 과거 경험: 2020년 중반 약 6,000달러에서 뒤늦게 매수를 시작했고, 목표 1억 달러 중 2,000만 달러를 6,500달러 부근에서 샀으나 이후 매수를 중단했다고 말한다. 현재 일부 보유 중이며 최근 3만 6천 달러 부근에서 원금 일부를 회수했다고 밝힌다. 과거 설명으로 예측이 아님. 비트코인 평가: 발행량이 2,100만 개로 고정된 유한 공급이 핵심 근거다. 2020년 코로나 대응 중 연준의 무제한 통화 완화를 계기로 법정화폐에 대한 불신이 커졌다고 설명한다. 14년 된 브랜드 가치와 디지털 금으로서의 가치저장 기능이 강점이며, 1위 자리를 빼앗기는 것은 매우 어려울 것으로 본다. 이더리움 등 스마트계약: 이더리움이 결제·스마트계약 분야 선두지만 지위 유지에 회의적이다. 페이스북 이전의 마이스페이스, 구글 이전의 야후에 비유하며 더 빠른 후발주자에게 밀릴 수 있다고 주장한다. 스탠퍼드·브라운·MIT 등 우수 엔지니어들이 코인 분야로 몰리는 점을 우려하며, 아직 없는 통화·결제 시스템이 승자가 될 가능성을 언급한다. 도지코인: 일론 머스크 관련 밈 현상이자 과도한 통화정책의 산물로 보며 공급 한도가 없어 실용성이 없다고 평가한다. 공매도는 하지 않겠다고 하며 무시하려 한다고 말한다. 금: 비트코인과 함께 불확실한 시기의 가치저장 수단으로 언급되며, 비트코인을 '하이베타 금'으로 표현한다. 금과 비트코인이 앞으로도 우위를 가질 것이라는 견해다. 기타 언급 종목: 팔란티어 보유 언급(기관이 비트코인 수용 발표에 대한 긍정 맥락). 파월 연준 의장의 통화정책을 시장의 핵심 변수로 지목한다. 리스크·조건: 비트코인 가격 변동성이 크며 과거 17,000달러에서 3,000달러로 하락한 사례를 언급한다. 연준 및 중앙은행 통화 확대가 지속될 경우 법정화폐 불신과 코인 수요가 유지된다는 전제가 깔려 있다. 출연자 전망: 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없고 장기적 낙관 견해 위주다.
다듬은 글
one ben here and welcome to motivation to invest in this video i'm going to reveal the legendary billionaire trader stanley drucker miller's thoughts on investing into cryptocurrency does this legendary trader own bitcoin years ago i said more than once um crypto and bitcoin are a solution in search of a problem right so what the hell are these people all looking for we already have that it's called the dollar right okay so for the first move in bitcoin i think it went from what 50 bucks to 17 000 i just sat there aghast and by the way consistent with our earlier conversation i wanted to buy it every day it was going up even though i didn't i didn't think much of it i just couldn't stand the fact that it was going up and i didn't own it so um fast forward i i never owned it from like fifty dollars to seventeen thousand felt like a then it goes back down to three thousand again and then a couple things happen and this this is consistent with the fundamental and then let's make something go up or down so solution in search of a problem i found the problem when we did the cares act and chairman powell started crossing all sorts of red lines in terms of what the fed would do and wouldn't do the problem was jay pal and the world central bankers going nuts and making fiat money even more questionable than it already been when i used to own gold then the second thing that happened is i got a call from paul jones and he says to me uh do you know that when bitcoin went from 17 000 to 3 000 86 of the people that owned it at 17 000 never sold it well this was huge in my mind right here's something with a finite supply 86 percent of the owners are religious zealots i mean who the hell holds something through 17 000 to three thousand and it turns out none of them you know eighty six percent of people never sold it and i had this new central bank craziness phenomena the other thing that happened um it had been you know it had a few more years under its belt so it goes up to 6 000 in the middle of the last spring and i go well i got to buy some of this just because these kids on the west coast that are already worth more than i am and they're going to be making a lot more money than me in the future for some reason they're looking at this thing the way i've always looked at gold which is a store of value if i don't trust fiat currencies um and then the thing that paul told me and then the fact that it had been around 13 years it had become a brand right so it's funny i tried to buy a 100 million at 6200 it took me two weeks to buy 20 million i bought it all around 6 500 i think and i said this is ridiculous you know it takes me two weeks i can buy that much gold in two seconds so like an idiot i stopped buying it um next thing i knew uh the things trading at thirty six thousand uh i took my costs and then some out of it and i still own some of it my heart's never been in it i'm a 68 year old dinosaur but once it started moving and these institutions started upping it i could see the old elephant trying to get through the keyhole and they can't fit through in time um i own this company called palantir and i see they announce with their earnings today they're going to start accepting bitcoin and they may invest that's happening all over the place and you know this thing is never going to have more than 21 million it's it's a it's a fixed supply so i think because it's a brand it's been around for 14 years because of the finite supply it has sort of won this store a value game is it going to beat gold i don't know it sure as hell doing a good imitation of it um the last year or two but is it going to beat the other cryptos in terms of digital gold store value i would say it's going to be very very tough to unseat then you go to what i call the commerce facilitators which obviously the lead in smart contracts and that kind of stuff would be ethereum there i'm a little more skeptical of whether they can hold their position it reminds me a little of my space before face facebook came along or maybe a better analogy yahoo before google came along google wasn't that much faster than yahoo but it didn't need to be all it needed to be was a little bit faster and the rest is history and i'm so impressed one of the ways we've always invested in the private sector is to try and figure out where the engineering kids from stanford and brown and mit where those kids are going and so many of them are in love with crypto and that's where they're going i i'm worried about the talent that's like 23 to 28 years old somebody we don't even know who they are yet coming up with a payment system or whatever and unseating so again i don't know but my guess is um the winner in the commerce facilitating alcohol whether you want to call it payments or smart contract whatever on there's a good chance that company hasn't even been in or that currency hasn't even been invented yet i think gold and bitcoin and bitcoin seems to be high beta gold are going to have the win behind them hi beta gold that's a never heard them so that is a fantastic uh terminology well it's so fantastic i'm wondering why the hell i didn't just own bitcoin two years ago instead of uh just gold it's a little bitcoin so uh just uh just to put the cherry on top of the crypto combo you mentioned it once earlier dogecoin is it just to you ridiculous and elon's involvement in it like what how does what is your reaction to all that it's just a you know flex nfts it's just a manifestation of the craziest monetary policy in history right and i think since there's no limit on supply i don't really see the utility of this thing right now it's just this wave of money and the greater food theory um no no just enough now having said that i've i'm i wouldn't short it because i don't like putting campfires out with my face um so i just try and pretend dogecoin doesn't exist right i think so little of it it doesn't even bother me when it goes up right bitcoin used to go up i'd go crazy that i didn't own it when dogecoin goes up i just i just started laughing but to me it's all about jerome powell right and if you guys did find any value in this video at all feel free to give it a big thumbs up that helps out tremendously the channel and with that being said i hope you guys all have a tremendous day and i'll see you in my next video invest safe
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