저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Palihapitiya는 2014~15년 테슬라 전환사채에 투자했다고 밝히며 Elon Musk를 가장 중요한 기업가로 평가한다. 테슬라를 자동차 회사가 아닌 에너지 탈규제·탈탄소화 플랫폼으로 보며, 분산형 에너지(태양광·배터리·소프트웨어)가 전통 유틸리티를 대체할 것이라 주장한다. 테슬라 주가가 S&P500에 편입될 것이며 전기차 전환의 수혜가 불균형적으로 테슬라에 돌아갈 것이라고 본다. 단기 주가 전망은 명시하지 않고 3~5년 장기 관점에서 매수를 권유한다. 공매도 세력과 금융 조작 가능성도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
people. Look, I bought Tesla in 2014 or 15. I was one of the largest owners of the convertible debt. You know, I felt that that was the best margin of safety way to bet on Tesla. Um, it's turned out to be an enormous winner. Um, and I really believe in what Elon is doing. I think he's the most important entrepreneur of our of our lifetime right now.
Um, it's taken people 15 years to embrace um that they're going to be now a legitimate car. Look, folks, I purchased a Tesla sometime in 2014 or 2015 among the biggest holders of the convertible debt was myself. You know, I thought it was the greatest approach to gamble on Tesla with a margin of safety.
It has proven to be a huge success and I have complete faith in Elon's abilities. He is in my opinion the most significant businessman of our time. It has taken them 15 years to accept that they will now be a real automaker. My wager, however, was on something larger when I underwrote the investment.
Additionally, I believe Elon is much beyond starting a vehicle company. The deregulation of energy is the next arc of innovation, and I believe it will take another 5 or 10 years for people to realize what it is. A closer study reveals that utilities worldwide spend tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars annually on capital expenditures.
They are subject to strict regulations. They feel totally secure. Uh they believe they can keep issuing debt because they are uh protected. They can do a lot of harm to the environment or to other things. Just take a look at PG&E and yet escape with no harm except that something is occurring. the total disruption of energy from the bottom up.
Something no one anticipated. And it is the one method by which this matter will be deregulated. It won't be required by law or decree. It will not be a giant monolith of arrival. You know, the reason for this is that each residents has hydro panels, solar panels, batteries, and software that essentially enables them to live off the grid.
Eventually, they will utilize their extra energy to power battery solutions and other devices that are within the jurisdiction of cities, municipalities, and governments. They will thereafter, at the very least, stop using peers, and eventually their consumption patterns will diverge greatly from those of typical utilities.
Tesla is supplying the electricity for that. It is able to be a multi-trillion dollar corporation because of this. Does it have the same return profile as when I purchased it? And if so, is it currently trading at $25 or $30 per share? Obviously not. Can it, however, be several times greater than it is now?
Of course. This, in my opinion, is a very significant illustration of a much larger trend in the stock market. Ordinary investors now have access to so much information that they are nearly on level with those who work for traditional investing firms. We've observed that the quality of that analysis and the capacity to see around the corner are on par with and frequently better than traditional investment companies and their approach to the issue.
Thus, there has been a great deal of conflict between the bulls and the bears on this business since day one. The bears attempted to manipulate balance sheet calculations while the bulls essentially recognized a long-term trend toward electrification. Naturally, you would ask, "What does any of this mean?" If I told you you can sell 90,000 cars, but if you negative sell 100,000, you've not sold 10,000.
You could try to short this stock using any complicated reasoning, and all you would have done is lose a ton of money. Consequently, we will see that the stock will join the S&P 500 stock index. In terms of electrification and decarbonization, it is in the forefront. The problem, Andrew, is that the bulls will see that this is no longer about automobiles while the bears will continue to disregard it.
That is the initial growing wave. Additionally, I believe that people are pricing in the demise of conventional cars and a massive switch to electric vehicles of which Tesla will receive a disproportionate amount. What is the wager? Now, as an investor who adores that firm, I I would say that the energy industry was discussed on pages four or five of their quarterly earnings statement.
Um, additionally, they made a few intriguing remarks. For starters, it was profitable. Additionally, they are currently creating software that enables anyone to become a distributed utility. Now, consider it for a moment. you're discussing one of the most dependable and sensible companies that has amassed debt of hundreds of billions and even trillions of dollars.
Additionally, Tesla's plans for their software and battery packs will suddenly enable everyone to participate in the energy industry. People will become irate once more. They won't comprehend. They will attempt to resist, but they will be unsuccessful. Furthermore, this stock will now be used to symbolize the entirety of sustainability and decarbonization.
So, for the first four years, I had this thing around vehicles. It was really amazing. I earned a great deal of money. However, I now underwrite this business as a wager on decarbonization, deregulated energy, and our collective capacity to develop into our own tiny microities. It's not enough to merely watch Tesla's remarkable rise from the outside.
With the most recent information on Tesla, stock price target the . You know, if you step back, I have a suspicion that you wouldn't be able to hit a golf ball off the pier here and into a teacup, even if I gave you a million chances. However, you would think, "Wow, that person is a great golfer if you picked someone else and they were able to accomplish it nine times out of 10." Elon essentially performed that equivalent, to use my comparison, in orbit.
He was able to launch a rocket, do a variety of fascinating, highly productive and beneficial tasks for the planet, and then return to Earth and land on a boat in the middle of the ocean. To be honest, that the level of technical complexity he's been able to implement throughout his organizations is unmatched.
We thus believe that Tesla was at a turning point that was as near to its own version of the iPhone moment as possible. And by that I mean a business that had been maturing, taking chances, and eventually discovered the mass market product that would enable a great deal of product market fit, the Model 3.
As of right now, he is fulfilling his commitment to commercialize electrification and offer an amazing user experience at a price point that to be honest has sucked its rivals out of the market. And based on the findings, I believe that the business is currently developing in response to all of that demand.
Therefore, once more, is it the ideal organization for you to drive and monitor accuracy and performance from quarter to quarter? No. However, if you would want to stand back and consider the next 3 to 5 years and ask yourself where can I compound my money because it sits on top of all the stock and other debt, it is particularly attractive for converts because it is downside protected.
Therefore, they receive payment first if you are worried about liquidity problems or that the firm could have to sell. In my opinion, it was a risk-free choice for our generation's Edison. Um, the argument is that neither he nor the insiders have adequate control over the common shares. It is run by a group of vulture-like venture hedge hedge funds, the majority of which are hedge funds who like taking advantage of that business.
For instance, if you look at the activity on Twitter or the forums around Tesla, you can see how much sniping and underhyping there is. All of it tells me that the market is firmly in the hands of financial manipulators and not under uh the founders or executives control. Um the idea is to purchase the bonds.
You're safe. Let Elon do the job. To be honest, all I can see is that he has made an effort to perform as well as possible, releases numbers that are aggressive. He makes an effort to reach such figures. That is okay though since you would be thrilled if you were to go back 5 years and ask yourself what did he promise in 2014 to what is he doing in 2019.
Let the man do his job too. If you stand back and say from 2019 to 2024, as a species, as a planet, as people, and as consumers, will we be better off or worse off? It will benefit us. Well, you could have over the line. You're getting sucked into the window decoration, which is what I'm trying to say. I'm concentrating on the main dish. On the table is the main meal.
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