저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아는 중국 시장 접근이 필요하며 H200 등 제한 칩 허용 논의가 이어지고 있음. 구글 TPU 경쟁 우려에도 엔비디아의 기술 우위는 수년간 지속된다고 봄. 매도 국면은 매수 기회로 보며, 테슬라는 로보택시·물리적 AI를 근거로 장기 낙관. 엔비디아 목표가 240~250달러(발언자 개인 의견), 테슬라 베이스 600·불 800달러 언급.
다듬은 글
Look, Nvidia needs access to the China market. It's not just about 20 billion per year. It's about by Nvidia not having access to that market, whether it's H200s or other restricted chips, call restricted black chip that maybe we see in part of negotiations, it it makes Huawei and domestic that much more powerful.
Now, I can tell you from my conversation, all the work that we've done throughout Asia, like big China attack, there's one chip in the Look, Nvidia must have access to the Chinese market. It's more than 20 billion annually. It has to do with Nvidia's inability of access to that market, whether it be for H200s or other restricted chips, also known as restricted Blackwell chips.
That may be discussed during discussions. It increases the power of Huawei and homegrown companies. I can now tell you from our talk that despite all the work we've done around Asia, big Chinese tech just wants one chip. It comes from Bay Jensen, the Godfather. Which would you prefer? Quick food or cuisine from a Michelin star restaurant?
You'd prefer? The basic idea is that even if Nvidia's older processors are years ahead of China's and Beijing is probably aware of this, both parties need Nvidia to sell to China because in my opinion, it's an arms race and the US has the biggest chip at the table. Why did Trump permit this at this point?
Trump understands that preventing Nvidia from selling to China allows Chinese technology to close the gap and eventually China will adjust to a world without Nvidia chips. And you're not interested in that. You want AMD and Nvidia to enter that market. That's why I believe there was a push and pull between national security and I believe Jensen himself will discuss it.
He will say something like, "You want to sell into one of the biggest and best economies in the world, China, but the stocks aren't rising as quickly as I had anticipated. Given the news, how do you expect the stock prices to rise further?" Investors, I believe, are cautiously hopeful because they are constantly worried about the arrival of China's big brother.
There will be an increasing amount of noise. It will not come to pass. One step forward and two steps back will be the pattern. Because of this, the stocks may not have responded to the level you anticipated. Oh, would this be a chance to make a purchase? We see as a fantastic chance to acquire these names.
In our opinion, possibilities are created whenever there are sell-offs like this. Additionally, I believe that it's really simple to become engrossed in some of the stories at times. However, the truth is that US big tech will benefit greatly from this. Additionally, the US is ahead of China in big tech for the first time in 30 years.
However, others question whether China actually wants this H200. Big tech in China wants it. Even while the government may not want it, China's IT industry, robotics businesses, and largest tech corporations all desire Nvidia chips, and they will eventually obtain them in one way or another. Once more, it is my opinion of the stock's potential trading price, which I believe to be between $240 and $250.
At the moment, it seems like Nvidia is the only company in town. But when I take a step back, I see that Google is using its TPUs quickly and has a significant data edge. Thus, the key question is whether Nvidia will still be the top player when we interview them in 2026 or if a competitor like Google might push them out of the market.
Yes, there's a greater likelihood that Google will take over and I will play in the NBA. Will be seated here in 2030. You see? Yes, and Nvidia will be the world's top chip. Will others now gain big tech companies like AMD, Huawei, and Microsoft use Google, Meta, and of course manufacture their own CPUs.
However, Nvidia is years ahead of the competition. However, from a TPU standpoint, it does explain why we are so optimistic about Google. Oh, I see. That enhances the narrative. Some claim that Nvidia is purposefully letting Google and other businesses into the market in order to create and grow this ecosystem.
The ecosystem has a 12 to one demand for Nvidia CPUs. Oh, the main idea is that there aren't enough Nvidia chips. Oh, I see. To provide the market. Thus, this all explains why Nvidia, you know, congratulates Google and you're aware of their achievements. whatever you need. Look, it's the Apple concept, similar to how you required other companies to manufacture devices when Apple started making iPhones again.
Yes, being the only one is not an option. That in my opinion is the perfect philosophy. In order to increase the pie, they are opening the market. The goal is to increase the pie while maintaining it health. Oh, and to confirm the requirements there. And as everything unfolds, I believe that to be crucial.
What do you know? In reality, I don't have Nvidia, I have Google. When people like me sell their Google and use the money to purchase Nvidia, it feels like anything is possible. I wouldn't declare that I would only because I really believe in Goo. It's more like my ETF in my opinion. You must have components.
Although you own Nvidia on sell-offs, I believe you should own these were the stock. So, I believe that there are still opportunities and the sell-offs, in my opinion, produce the best purchasing opportunities. Yes. Now, let's discuss Tesla. There have been several high-profile actions on Wall Street lately due to concerns over valuation.
Even longtime Tesla bull Cathy would have begun reducing her stake. You still seem to be a Tesla fan, though. What do you think they're lacking? For example, do you think Tesla is still the best in its class or do you acknowledge that there may be better short-term returns in other industries? Consider the short term from a growth perspective.
I believe that Tesla's autonomous robotics will be the biggest chapter in its history. Of course, we talk about hyperscalers and other tech companies, but from a physical AI standpoint, Nvidia and Tesla are the two best physical AI companies in the world. That's why I look at Tesla. I'm not saying that deliveries could be low on a quarterby quarter basis.
However, when I consider the innovation that is taking place in the field of robo taxis such as Tesla base case 600 bullcase $800 stock, I believe that it is only the beginning and that you should not get caught up in the short-term dynamics that can occasionally skew. Do you think it would be similar if I consider the next 3 years?
Yes. and I could own a single business such as Tesla, which I plan to do so for the next 3 years without participating in a bodybuilding competition. Yes, he is mostly responsible for the million followers I have. Before you know it, he's going to receive a marriage proposal. In any case, I'll conclude by saying that it's hilarious how contrarian we are.
And in a positive sense, as most people always enjoy attempting to come up with a headline and we're trying to make sure that the headlines we bring in are ones that are composed and forwardinking when always focusing on the process and planning, but when things go wrong, we'll say it's like going back to April.
I know. So, I'm saying that it's not like we're smoke and mirror. We'll say when it's bad, but it's also navigating the times when it's not you. You have to navigate a lot of these things as we go through it. And you know what? I could probably pull out six or seven instances this year where all eyes were on a story that was so catastrophic about what was not going to happen and you held your ground.
It was an earnings story from Nvidia. It was about lowering and interest rates. In my world, I don't think we'll have a bump in the road or a pebble in our shoe. But at the end of the day, we're looking at the long game. And the long game is an industrial one. The fourth industrial revolution extra amazing.
Very, very. So, I just want to say thank you, thank you, thank you, and I'll be seeing you soon. There were a lot of things that happened this year where you literally the nine out of 10 people said that's going to happen. Thank you to everyone who watched and see you soon. Happy birthday, Legend. We'll be in Vegas. Thank you, friend. They are the greatest.
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