저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 AI 2~3년차 강세장을 전망하며 2026년 기술주 20~25% 상승을 예측한다. AMD와의 6GW 딜(수십억 달러 매출), 엔비디아를 AI 최선두로 보고, 테슬라·팔란티어·마이크로소프트 등 미국 빅테크 우호적 견해를 밝힌다. 중국 기술은 격차를 좁히고 있으나 미국 기술 중심 투자를 권한다. 최대 리스크로 에너지(전력) 제약을 꼽고 원전을 해법으로 본다.
다듬은 글
need to have enough AI compute. And so, yes, what we announced today was a six gigawatt deal. It will be, you know, tens of billions of dollars of revenue uh to AMD um over the next few years. Um and it's really an opportunity for us to even partner deeper uh with, you know, the clear market leader in AI.
And so, uh you know, we're talking about building six gigawatts together. Um you know, the first instantiation will actually go into place uh the second half next year. um we see it ramping to you know double digit bill. To me it truly comes down to how AI's second, third and fourth derivatives are developing.
Look you mentioned Tesla and its commercialization in terms of consumer AI and autonomous robotics. It's the next stage particularly for Apple and I believe that this year will be a pro year but that really makes me more optimistic because I believe that we are entering the next stage of artificial intelligence.
I predict a 20 to 25% increase in tech stocks in 2026. It's not just big tech though. It concerns a manifestation of second, third, and fourth derivatives. I will find it fascinating to observe. Nothing is formally expected in my opinion. However, you're attending CES, which is not only the world's largest tech conference, but also the most significant gathering for automakers.
It will be interesting to see whether Tesla releases any other items there or if there are significantly more robotics and automation products. Yes. And according to your look, Jensen, the AI godfather, is where it all begins. He'll be there wearing the black letter jacket because, in my opinion, his address on Monday is crucial since it truly begins the strategic development of AI.
He will discuss the two greatest physical AI plays now available as well as autonomous robotics in terms of physical AI. It's Nvidia and Tesla. And I believe that tells you something about Tesla that everyone is interested in. The autonomous chapter that Tesla is about to embark on. I believe Musk is currently the wartime CEO and that's the focus when it comes to AI.
However, keep in mind that only 3% of US companies have followed the AI path thus far. Are these robots anticipated to be B2B robots that build things in factories or like Roombas for consumers? What kinds of products do you think they will monetize? Indeed, autonomous humanoid robotics will be prominent at Seook and you'll see a lot of flying automobiles.
The presence of Chinese companies is going to be a monster in terms of what we see there and I think it's doubled over the last few years. However, I think it's really going to be about humanoid robotics. It's going to be about autonomous, but it's also going to be about more embedded AI devices that consumers are going to see.
We're not just talking about talking refrigerators and flying drones. In terms of who's who, these are now considerably more prominent. All of the major tech companies will be there. They are there to search for acquisitions, even if they aren't there formally. I adore the thought of having the refrigerator ask, "Do you really want that when you open it?" Additionally, I can envision the future of moving over to the Olympics.
This raises a question of what some of the late 2025 moves mean as well. And I'd love your opinion on this because at a time when businesses are suddenly saying, "Hold on, what are we paying for this? And what are we actually getting?" We've seen some acquisitions made by companies like Meta and Nvidia.
I just wonder if there's more cost consciousness and a competitive advantage that they're looking to solidify. Look, I believe you made a really good point because in actuality, this is an arms race. That's what's happening with big tech, which is currently at the top of that mountain. And when you consider Google's victory over the DOJ and antitrust, for example, it seems like big tech is getting ahead.
Additionally, I believe there will be an increasing number of acquisitions. We have discussed a wide range of topics, not just energy and enterprise in my opinion. And that really illustrates what we're witnessing here, which is that it's not just about big tech expanding, making deals, and spending money.
There will be 600 billion in capbacks and big tech, but other players will also be saying, "Remember me, look at AMD, you know, and then look at Cisco, look at IBM, and look at something else." I mean many other gamers will be saying things like hey we want to join that AI party you know unlike many bears we don't wish to gaze to the windows we were discussing BYD's victory over Tesla as the largest producer of electric vehicles worldwide in 2025 big tech in China has also outperformed from the standpoint of the equities market.
Do you believe that will continue and that China will either surpass or consolidate its current tie with the US? In my opinion, the United States has surpassed China in technology for the first time in 30 years. And that in my opinion is crucial. Clearly in the lead are Microsoft, Palanteer, Nvidia and others.
However, in China, we have a lot of faith in Chinese technology. We discussed Alibaba, 10 cent and many other names there. In terms of the AI revolution, we said that it's third inning, one out. The bears, as I mentioned earlier, can see AI in the spreadsheets, and I believe that 2026 will be another bull market year for both TAC and AI.
I believe that what you're seeing is a narrowing, but it's something where you're seeing autonomous EVs, BYD, and others in China. However, when you think about how to play it, you have to play US tech companies. Since we've seen so many reports this morning regarding BEu's chip unit applying for an IPO, I had essentially the same query as Lisa once more.
I believe Brier, another chip designer, had a very successful first public offering today. One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal is about a cheaper artificial intelligence, which could be another mini Deepseek moment. Customers are thus keeping an eye on China's AI developments. How would you wager on that?
Do you actually purchase the individual stocks? Do you have a favorite ETF? Are some of these stocks included in your ETF? Yes, of course. Therefore, it goes without saying that the AI30 is the main focus of the Ives ETF. You know who are the 30 winners. Some of the Chinese players are present. I believe that BEu considers Huawei's level of success.
As you can see, Nvidia is currently four to 5 years ahead of any other chip manufacturer. And that is, I believe, widely recognized. That's why regardless of Beijing politics, even a third rate H200 restricted China big tech will line up. It's an arms race, though. It's the closing of the gap. You know, some of those Chinese tech guys are the ones you want to play.
However, Nvidia and AMD are the realities in the US. We discussed our top five. Tesla, Palunteer, Crowd, and Cyber Security. and I believe this will be their most significant year to date. I believe Microsoft is currently on a hypers scale. I consider Microsoft and Oracle to be table pounders in terms of what we're witnessing.
After a while, Apple finally joined the AI party rather than continuing to run at 2.0 pace and they are now beginning to make headway in the consumer AI revolution. With shares trading between $75 and $100, Microsoft is the only corporation on your list that you failed to mention. In terms of outperforming Google, where is Microsoft?
Who is its primary rival? As far as Redmond is concerned, this is their backyard. When you consider businesses that are embracing AI, Nadella is the first person you contact. And based on what Jasse is doing, I believe that Google, Amazon, and others are closing the gap and succeeding. However, Microsoft has an additional 25 to 30 billion in revenue that I don't even consider when calculating street statistics.
Yes, it is correct. In the end, the stock has a six in front of it. And I believe that January will mark the start of the earning season. That seems to be the sort of show me story that goes, look, this isn't stopping. As previously stated, the AI party began at 900 p.m. and is currently at 10:30 to 10:45 p.m.
Lisa and I are both completely sleeping. I was saying precisely that. However, the party ends at 4 in the morning and there is our current location. Is your iPhone usually blue when you send texts on it? I am something of a neopite. AI has only a single godfather. He goes by Jensen and is dressed in a black leather jacket.
Thus, the supply and demand for Nvidia chips are currently 12 to1. However, AMD is the reason why you will see other players in that game, and you will see Google in terms of what they have done on that game from a chip viewpoint. That is a long-term wager. When Apple wagers on processors to eventually outperform Intel, it is no different.
5, 6, or 7 years passed. However, these are long-term participants in the ongoing weapons race. born in the third year of an AI revolution that will last 8 to 10 years, year three and a revolution that lasts 8 to 10 years. There will be obstacles to overcome. What do you think is the biggest danger to your optimism about this positive story?
Energy, energy, energy. The large you see, I'm not concerned with stuff like the layout of the Oracle data center. In terms of capital, I don't worry about use cases. As someone who has witnessed it firsthand while traversing the world, I believe that this is the real fourth industrial revolution. It is not a fad like the AI revolution.
And the largest problem facing the US is energy. In my opinion, the problem remains that 3% of US companies have chosen the AI route. And when you get to 20%, it's kind of midnight. For this reason, I believe nuclear is still the solution. And from a US perspective, we're ahead of China in terms of technology at the moment.
In terms of energy, China is ahead. Does a worry about energy constraints and restrictions manifest itself in 2026? If so, how does it manifest itself? I believe it's me. This, in my opinion, is a significant turning point when it comes to government administration. You guys wholeheartedly support
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