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shout out to otis linked below for sponsoring today's video we'll even be talking about crypto punks with oti various different updates are regarding cryptocurrencies we're going to talk about price action that we're seeing we're going to talk about some updates regarding what happened in singapore we'll talk about and crypto as an inflation hedge we'll also talk about myanmar a bloomberg's price target for crypto what happened with solana uh but more importantly the broader market what's happening with the broader market these are all things we're going to cover in this video so if you're curious about what the heck is going on in the crypto world here's the update for you uh for december 13th quick no because so many of you been asking there is now a christmas coupon code for all in real estate stocks the psychology of money investing real estate agents making youtube videos you name it use that before christmas okay folks let's get right into this we'll go ahead and first just get a quick little preview of the day look at this folks bitcoin just dropped below 47 000.
ethereum is now below 3800 and so far we have seen nothing but this slip trend continue if we drop on over or jump on over rather to uh our weeble here we can see generally we keep revisiting this a 47 100 ish line for btc i do have a double set of supports here a drawn a softer one and a stronger one the stronger one is that 47 one level and 46 8 is the softer one this is really where we see sort of that pain extending and right now we're bouncing off of this again at 47.1 here bouncing around again you can see the price over here so these very very very important lines here this is on the one hour chart if we go out to the one day you could see the pain that we've kind of been playing with right here so it's a little less evident on the one day chart but on the one hour chart you could definitely see that these have been holding when we get larger liquidations that's when we get these pull throughs uh but even if we go back a little bit we see some of these same levels come into play like at the beginning of october and of course if we jump in over here towards where we've been playing uh since about the beginning of december we could see these lines pretty pretty consistent uh similarly with ethereum except ethereum breaking past its 4k level and when we break past the ethereum 4k level we do have a support line at 37.64 and that's essentially what we're stretching down to right now and we just bounced off of that sitting at about 38 so watch that in terms of levels now in terms of cardano worth noting that we've so far and it's unfortunate we've been pretty much perfectly following the fibonacci right down and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see cardano get back to about a buck o2 this is where in the summer i did a substantial amount of buying on cardano and it ended up being a phenomenal investment because the thing almost tripled actually it did triple i didn't sell for a triple i sold for a double but i'll take it but anyway this is one to watch sheba did a lot of a similar move here with the fibonacci so watch for that uh similar retracement that we're seeing here now let's go ahead and talk about some of the news this is a little bit of the price action that's been going on let's talk about some of the news and try to make sense of some of the madness that's going on so in order to do this i think it's easier for us to just hop on over to our uh our outline over here it's just easiest to flow and a lot of you seem to appreciate the outline so first it's worth noting that 90 of bitcoin has been mined as of today so congratulations that doesn't mean the next 10 is going to be the hardest coin that has ever been mined but it is a big milestone for bitcoin uh also binance uh binance had an application to run an exchange in singapore they bloomberg just reported that they have withdrawn their application to operate an exchange in singapore they'll wind down and close operations for this particular branch by february 13th of 2022 uh this was originally singapore was speculated to become the global headquarters for binance so it came as a little bit of a surprise some folks are indicating that maybe this is why we're seeing crypto sell down a little bit now binance later came out and said hey look they have an eighteen 18 a percent stake in the hg exchange which operates in that region uh and that kind of made their application quote somewhat redundant and they ended the message on twitter with onwards which in my opinion when you kind of end a message with onwards it's kind of like you're kind of rolling your eyes like ah well it wasn't meant to be i guess and you're kind of moving on which kind of implies they wanted the permit but still withdrew the permit for some reason and and this kind of reiterates not only the regulatory difficulties that we face but the regulatory uncertainties that we face it's kind of like what we heard in the congressional hearings about hey should we have a single regulator should we have multi-regulators versus having nothing you know should we just use the regulatory regimes that we have now or stick with nothing and really the worst is having nothing and that's kind of what we have now is very little crypto regulation and that makes it very difficult to jump through hoops because you don't know what the hoops are supposed to be when you're trying to apply for things like for example a bitcoin etf not talking about a bitcoin futures etf an actual bitcoin etf like if we just got hey if you follow these rules you can provide lending services coinbase hey if you follow these rules you can have a stable coin if you follow these rules you can you have an etf great then then at least it gives us a path but we don't even have that path right now and so that's where congress is lost uh in in trying to regulate crypto and honestly i don't think they even remotely understand it but then again i think the vast majority of folks who get into crypto realize that the more you get into crypto the more you realize you don't know a lot about crypto because there's such a vast amount of knowledge it's like when you first get into crypto you think you know everything and you're just saying unconscious incompetent like you don't even know that you're incompetent in crypto then you get to like the conscious incompetence where it's like oh man there's a lot to learn like i consider myself there like i'm aware that there is so much more learning to do but that excites me because it gives me so much to read and research every day i love it uh and and this was one of them okay now you might think this person was a little fudd-ish but they had a little uh they had a very unique perspective about when you want to invest in crypto as a hedge and when you don't want to use crypto as a hedge and i thought this was very very unique so it's worth talking about now for a quick message from our sponsor thank you to otis for sponsoring today's video otis is a stock market for 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below and sign up for free that way you can follow the weekly drops and choose the collectibles that you want to invest in some of my favorite drops on otis right now are a psa 10 charizard card and they even have a crypto punk this means using otis you can have fractional ownership for as little as a dollar in nfts or pokemon cards so take a look at this uh well actually you know what i'm just going to jump to the bottom line on this you can kind of pause the screen here and read a little bit of the back story but a lot of this was the back story here i think what's most important is let's just look at the summary here so the summary of this person's opinion piece it was an opinion piece in bloomberg this was written by aaron brown he's the head of research at aqr capital and this was his summary his summary was first you should buy crypto if you think the dollar is going down or into the toilet and he believes that a drunken congress can lead the dollar to collapse and you can pull up the value of the dollar by looking at for relative value of the dollar by looking at the dxy chart i'll pull that up in a moment but i want to explain drunken congress so their argument of what a drunken congress is is this is that democrats like to raise taxes and spend republicans like to cut taxes but they don't cut spending as much and he believes that right now we're in the state where you kind of have nothing like democrats can't do anything republicans can't do anything but republicans have a good chance of winning power in 2022 at least in one of the houses of congress which would mean we would need some kind of bipartisan action to actually get anything done in congress and when you have republicans and democrats working together you tend to get more spending less tax or less less spending cuts so again more spending which is inflationary less spending cuts which is inflationary potentially tax cuts which is inflationary uh and and usually you don't get as many race taxes when you get this coalition here so he's basically saying you have a lot of inflationary pressures uh when you have this drunken congress that is when you get bipartisanship between republicans and democrats it's actually good for crypto which if you look back at the last year and a half a lot of the bipartisanship between democrats and republicans led to the three stimulus packages and virtually on every single stimulus package we hit new highs when we got this crazy amount of spending of our government right and it also weakened the dollar which again you can look at the strength of the dollar because crypto globally is really denominated in relative terms to the dollar and if you look at the dollar chart here you can see that every time we took stimulative stimulative action the dollar weakened right so over here in april we passed our first massive stimulus package boom the dollar weakens we pass our next stimulus package in december the dollar hits an all-time low we pass our next stimulus package in uh in in january the dollar remains at an all-time low and it kind of vacillates then later but every time we stimulate it and government had their sort of bipartisan efforts we saw the dollar fall to new level low levels uh in in that consistently is at least deemed to be something that leads people to fly into crypto because they see a weakening dollar as a hedge uh or they see crypto as a hedge to a weakening dollar so if you think the dollar is going to keep failing or the or maybe not necessarily continue to fail because it's actually been strengthening lately but if you think that the dollar is going to weaken in the long term buy crypto if you think we're going to get more monetary stimulus because the economy is weakening so this is like your economy is slowing down he actually argues you should buy real estate and not crypto so if the economy is shrinking and slowing down he says the last thing that you want to be exposed to is a startup and he compared crypto to kind of like being a venture capital investor without needing to be an incred accredited investor so like you want to invest in the next startup hey look that's great when the economy is booming but startups suck when gdp is declining and the economy is shrinking and crypto acts a lot like a risky startup so if you if you think that gdp is going to decline and our economy is going to slow down probably stay away from crypto was his argument if you think the dollar is going to lose power that's where you want to get into crypto if we have a war he says buy crypto so he's got a lot of reasons for buying crypto so war by crypto dollar loses power by crypto financial conflict buy crypto supply so this would be like banks having over leveraging issues or collapse risks right 2008 style risk which is really what created crypto anyway supply chain issues so for supply chain issues interestingly he thought that if you are investing in crypto as a way to hedge against inflation risk but you think the only reason that we're having inflation is because of shorter term supply chain issues then maybe you don't want to be in crypto and the reason for that uh is is again going back to that venture capital style speculativeness is that hey if that temporary inflation i know that's like a hot tamale to talk about right now but if that supply chain inflation goes away then then you might lose some of the benefits of of using crypto as an inflation hedge as inflation potentially goes down now in theory uh that would mean the worst case scenario would be supply chain issues going down the and then all of a sudden so we we get inflation going down so inflation goes down but on top of inflation going down you also potentially have gdp going down maybe as you turn into this sort of deflationary spiral this in theory would then be the worst case scenario for crypto like best case scenario for crypto would actually be inflation going up in gdp going up right startups are good when gdp goes up inflation uh goes up which is good for for crypto right worth noting uh it's also worth noting that i just ran a poll and just as many of you seem to invest in a crypto as a way to protect your dollar's value as a hedge against inflation which it's worth noting those are different things right the dollar's value is relative to other currencies the uh amount of inflation we have is how much prices are actually going up and and take a look at this i ran this poll on twitter what's the number one reason you invest in crypto first of all 51 of you just invest in crypto because prices trend up which is probably not the best reason to invest in something in fairness trends can change okay like trends do not have to continue but but in hey you know what then again a lot of people invest in the s p 500 because stunks go up but then again if you take out the top 10 uh companies in the s p 500 the s p 500 is lower than where it was before the pandemic kind of crazy uh and then of course you guys are match guys and gals are matched between investing in crypto as an inflation hedge and a hedge against the end of fiat which would be you know dollar collapse right so it kind of really ties into what we're seeing here and then uh if the economy is stagnant uh then then again you also don't well we already talked about that you don't necessarily want to invest in crypto so that was kind of interesting now i do want to mention i saw i put a little kevin note in here we had the highest inflation reading like in the last 39 years on friday and crypto fell why because crypto tends to consistently fall on cpi days now you'd think when we have these high inflation reports crypto would go up but that's not when crypto goes up so there's not really a a great link between cpi going up and like bitcoin or the other cryptos going up if anything it's the opposite it's when we get these high reports i almost wonder if folks are trading crypto as as a potential uh risk asset and that they're trying to escape to some degree when we get these high cpi reads because we think that uh oh well if rates go up then maybe that means cheap money is going to go away and and potentially crypto goes down so that's another thing that's worth noting is every time we get these cpi reports ironically they come in high and crypto tends to fall that could be because the beta between i can't draw beta very well but anyway the beta between the the nasdaq and uh crypto is actually increasing and what that means is that if if you have a beta of one and the nasdaq goes down one percent then you would expect crypto go down to go down one percent uh that we're getting closer to one between the nasdaq and crypto so crypto's trading more like a tech stock than it ever has before and that relationship has doubled over the last few months which is also quite interesting uh so anyway then some other information that's worth noting is that in myanmar the national unity government which has been recognized by france and this government has offices not officers i guess they also have officers but anyway offices in the u.s uk france the czech republic australia and south korea they have come to recognize tether as uh their currency of choice and they are doing so to prevent government seizure of their money and increase privacy it is common to peg to the us dollar as well if you have an uncertain or like unstable currency and this all comes it's also worth noting that they're not technically the government in power right now this comes after the current regime took power via coup d'etat back in early 2020 now a military junta runs myanmar and so this national unity government is kind of like a shadow government that's trying to operate outside of the military junta and they're using tether to try to create a government uh the official central bank of myanmar has actually banned crypto but again this shadow government is like f the government f the central bank f the military we're creating our own government and we're using tether which kind of surprising like a little surprise they wouldn't use usdc which is a little bit potentially more backed right latest research suggests that a tether might only be somewhere between 20 to 30 actually backed by like treasury bonds or cash and the rest are it can frequently be just any kind of speculative corporate asset which could be uh you know in theory it could be junk corporate bonds you know leveraged loans whatever now another thing that's worth noting in in just sort of the pain regime right now is you do have a lot of institutional investors investing in crypto and when you have a lot of institutional investors investing in crypto especially bitcoin and ethereum which ethereum lately has become a lot more popular for institutions uh but either way both of them are very very popular you do have bloomberg frequently reporting that uh bitcoin seems to be heading to about forty thousand now that could be straight up fud or they could be right but no matter the more they say it the more you have institutions reading this and i just want to let you know what the institutions are reading they're reading bloomberg saying we're going to 40.
uh whether or not that will happen i i don't know but it's just worth noting that i also think that a lot of this comes off of the backs of the federal reserve fears because look again we we know the fed is going to be accelerating their taper this week or at least we expect that which could lead to rates going up sooner and again when you have rates going up sooner you kind of have this like disaster that happens so let's let's draw that out really quick so rates uh go up what happens when rates go up well your gdp might fall right gdp might fall and so the goal of obviously increasing rates is to try to get inflation to go down but in doing so you crimp business borrowing potentially which could reduce and even consumer borrowing which could reduce gdp and remember what this author mentions he says look if gdp goes down and then you potentially over uh overtighten and you go into a deflationary environment well now you're in your worst case scenario inflation goes down and gdp goes down right that would be bad that's bad for crypto so it's possible the market's trying to incorporate like dang it if inflation doesn't fleck down that's why we go down with cpi releases if inflation does go down and at the same time we over tighten then we could have a slowed down economy and that's doubly bad for crypto that could be a little bit of what we're seeing right now some other news and this is on solana specifically which i'm just going to grab solana here really quick on uh what do we got here weeble solana has broken hardcore my 186 support level that i had drawn for it now i don't have many other levels drawn for solana and we could probably try to do those together but i don't know how worth it is right now a lot of the pain though aside from doing some more ta here on uh on solana a lot of the pain here on solana right now is coming because and we're down nine percent it's coming not only because of the same reason i mean look at ethereum's down eight percent so it's not like it's down substantially more right but a lot of this is coming because of uh the problems that we had on thursday and that is another another another ddos attack on the solana network which is not very ideal so on thursday we had a ddos attack that slowed the network and this this has led to a lot more github submissions for solana which some folks are saying hey there are there are more github submissions or you know change submissions for solana because you're having problems others are saying it's because solana is just beating out cardano and uh polka dot which if only i could spell right when i type here on on the ipad but whatever uh and so you've got a lot more solana submissions which some people are seeing that as a bullish sign others are saying well it's because there are more problems and the latest problem really had to do with another ddos attack that slowed the network it's worth noting the following uh in october i did a video on solana and in october you needed 18 entities on the solana network to get you to a 33 network consensus this is a very important threshold this is compared to ethereum where you have about seven or eight validators that you need to get to about 33 consensus which implies that solana is more decentralized than ethereum uh or uh the uh the 10 on polygon where all of a sudden you get to 63 control when you have the top 10 which is crazy like that's not very decentralized right this is sort of your classic solana argument to say look salon is more decentralized but the problem is every time we have these ddos attacks just like kind of we had in september when we had an attack that that led the entire network to shut down for 17 hours and then all of a sudden enough validators got together to decide together to restart the network it leads a lot of people to wonder in question wait a minute how decentralized is solana actually because even though we might have 18 entities that get us to 33 consensus which implies it's decentralized what if you actually have a lot of these entities that are controlled and owned by the same groups of people then then you actually have less decentralization than it appears right uh it's also important to remember that solana is a level one protocol it's not like built on top of ethereum uh and anytime you have a level one solution you potentially uh and you're creating a new one you potentially create stability concerns because you're really creating a new blockchain tech and remember that solana uses proof of history proof of history i wrote it over here just so you can have a recollection of it it's a system that encodes time stamps into transactions before they're sent to the blockchain allowing the blockchain to calculate thousands of transactions at the same time without worrying about trying to figure out what the order of the transactions is because each transaction already has a timestamp and they're basically by default ordered and this allows solana to work more quickly in theory more efficiently and cheaper but again this uh this this attack is not so good and has led grayscale investment to write the following the solana consensus mechanism uses a new blockchain tech that is not yet widely used and may not function as intended there may be flaws in cryptography underlying the network including flaws that affect the functionality of the solana network or that make it more vulnerable to attack and unfortunately that's a little bit of what we're seeing right now so uh you know i think this is just growing pains uh for solana i'm personally not heavily worried about it although the only investment i have right now uh is twofold one uh axi teams about 40k and axi teams probably worth a little less right now uh and another in ethereum uh i'm really watching right now the dip very very closely so that way uh once i feel like we've bottomed i want to have a very diversified portfolio and i kind of want to have like a nice pie where i've got a little bit of you know dot a little bit of a tara luna a little bit of salon whatever right and so i'm working on those allocations of course anytime i buy or sell i send alerts whether it's crypto or stocks probably won't be crypto forever in the stocks of psychology money group but i imagine for at least the next three months or so uh but stocks at least uh for the time being uh no no plans to stop those alerts but anyway you can you can check out all of my programs that i have on building your wealth link down below using the new xmas coupon code that we have for christmas coming up but uh yeah there you go this is sort of an overarching update in terms of crypto for me uh what i would say in terms of btc pricing is is we really want to watch this level here because look we have been watching consistently this laddering down to new lows here i remember when we were dancing between 56 and 58 and now we're dancing at this support i'm nervous that if bloomberg's right we're going to be soon dancing around the 37 to 36 range i hope not because i do think that this is going to drive more liquidations you're going to have substantially more people upside down on their crypto purchases which is not good because then it leads to more paper handing like everybody's a diamond hander when you're still up right like people like oh the market's down but don't worry i'm still up or or it's like kind of like the classic thing that people always say it's like oh uh somebody says crypto's crashing and then they're like what are you talking about cryptos crashing 5 down on btc just a normal monday but if that becomes a problem when like every single day is just a normal monday and it's a normal tuesday it's a normal wednesday as you keep going down five five five five five right now again the broader market is selling off as well so this is no skin off of just crypto i mean look tesla's down 5.6 freaking percent right now you know sofi literally just broke support it's down at 14 freaking dollars and they broke us they broke a major support line so you got some serious pain happening in the market right now real sort of risk off happening right now but uh anyway these are some of my thoughts about crypto
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