저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
톰 리는 2026년 말 비트코인 30만달러, 이더리움 2만달러 전망을 제시하며 2026년 1월 신고가 가능성을 언급. 펀드스트랫 내 션 패럴은 상반기 비트코인 6만달러, 이더리움 1,800달러 하락 기본 시나리오를 내놓아 불일치 논란 발생. 패럴은 포트폴리오 50%를 현금·스테이블코인으로 전환했다고 밝힘. BMNR은 이더리움 매입 가속 주장과 달리 실제 매입 규모는 둔화됐다고 분석됨.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, Tom Lee is getting himself in a little bit of a drama right now. So, if we end up going on, I'm going to show you guys a clip, but people are essentially calling Tom Lee a liar and that he's saying different things to the public than what he's saying behind closed doors to his own personal clientele.
I'm going to show you guys what has been releasing from Tom Lee, from his team. They're all coming out and giving their own perspectives of what has just happened. I will talk about that here in a second, but I need to show you guys a clip of what ended up stirring the controversy in the first place because Tom Lee is very bullish on Ethereum.
Let's go have a look. End of 2026. So, a year from now, first of all, I don't think there's a four-year cycle. So, I think Bitcoin makes new highs in early 2026. And well, we'll find out, right? We'll find out. Um, but if that's the case, then I think Bitcoin is going to basically pattern match what happens to the S&P.
And I think the S&P next year could be doing do really well. I think the first part of next year S&P might have some headwinds, but I think it's really going to take off in the second half. So, I think I think Bitcoin is 300,000ish at the end of next year, but if that's the case, I think Ethereum is lights out.
I I think it's by the end of next year, it could, you know, be over 20,000. He is calling for Ethereum by the end of next year at 20,000. He also said that we're going to hit new all-time highs by January. This has been pushed back from December where his price targets were obviously a little bit too bullish, a little too early, right?
But essentially stating that we're going to break new all-time highs. There could be some bearishness in in first half of 2026, but then we're going to skyrocket on the second half of 2026 to $20,000 of Ethereum. However, there then came out this article saying that one of the head leads for Fund Strafer, the crypto team, Sean Frell says their base case, okay, this was in the report, his base case for the first half of 2026 is that Bitcoin is falling to 60,000, Ethereum to 1,800, and Salana to $50.
In that same breath, Tom Lee was hinting yesterday that he believes that Bitcoin can hit all-time highs at the end of January. Like, these two articles do not match up one day apart from each other. So, obviously, there is still a possibility that this could both work. that we end up breaking new highs in January and then see a 70% correction by July and then find new all-time highs again even higher by you know December by by the end of H2.
So this is extremely confusing. However, the main part that people are trying to bring up and what Tom Lee ended up retweeting here whenever this drama started to surface user named Cassian on X who is a paying member ended up putting out this long tweet. So, let's go ahead and have a little read, but I'm not 100% sure I agree with everything, but it is still good perspective.
Bunstrad is not a one-man shop, and it's definitely not just Tom Lee talking to himself. Different senior people have different mandates. Tom Lee is the head of research, public macrovoice, runs Granny Shots, ETFs. He's the chairman of Bitine. He's big picture cycle and liquidity thinker. However, Sean Ferrell, head of digital asset strategy, owns the crypto model, portfolio, and actual positioning.
He's cryptonative. he's focused on uh he's focused on flow and risk focused and then Mark Newton who we're not actually going to talk about his side here but he's the TA guy and looks for sort of where we are in that cycle. That being said, where they all agree is that there could be some headwinds in early 2026, not just for crypto but markets broadly.
Potential US government shutdown, legal uncertainty around Trump tariffs, new Fed chair nomination and bond market stress, Treasury volatility testing policy credibility. The consensus is that the first half of 2026 is choppy and unstable, but yet choppy and unstable is also going to lead to new all-time highs in January.
Even though potential US government shutdowns, one of the bare cases for late January. So, doesn't all add up. But this is what they're saying to their clients that are paying them, right? Anyway, where they diverge, Sean Ferrell is responsible for the crypto calls. That was his base case, not his bare case, but his base case.
and he has his own reasonings, tax loss dynamics, minor selling pressure, posth having flow exhaustion, this sort of stuff. And because of that, he's moving roughly 50% of his crypto portfolio to cash and stable coins, saying that's risk management. It's not a long-term call. I completely get that. Of course, he's he's bullish on crypto, but Tom Lee is not stating that the bearishness is this big where you're rotating half of your portfolio into cash and stable coins.
And then they go on to say that Tom Lee's operating on a completely different layer here. His core beliefs is that we're losing the four-year crypto cycle. Bitcoin and Ethereum have likely already put in structural lows. Structural lows. But if we end up hitting midway through first half of 2026, that would be new lows.
$60,50 in Salana, $1,800 for Ethereum. We did not hit that recently. So they are saying different things. He said, "Tom specifically is structurally bullish, but he's also been largely right. Since 2008, we haven't had a true secular bare market. We've had violent corrections inside a broader liquiditydriven regime.
Most serious bears would agree with this framing. understanding who is speaking and for what purpose over what horizon matters. But Tom Lee is talking in specific months what price he believes that Bitcoin and Ethereum will be in by the end of January, where they will be mid year and then where they will be by December of 2026.
Okay, so they are differing in opinions on the same time horizon. But it is important to understand that Fund strat is not BMR. Okay, they are different. There's a lot of uh overlap in terms of the customers that are are there and Tom Lee is in the head of both of them but they are not the same. Sean Ferrell at least to my understanding does not work at BMR.
Now Sean Ferrell this got very very popular so he ended up replying. Fundstrad is home to several analysts with independent frameworks and time horizons designed to serve different client objectives. My work is geared towards cryptoheavy portfolios and more active approaches to the market. Tom's work caters to big money managers and investors who allocate 1 to 5% of their portfolio to Bitcoin and Ethereum which requires disciplined long-term thinking about secular trends to outperform over time which I think is fair.
I also think the people who are buying BMR should be putting roughly 1 to 5% and no more than that if you are looking at BMR right that's sort of where my position in BMR also holds is between those ranges as well but he's not just talking only about the long term he's giving specific price targets about next month he's talking about all-time highs in January then he goes on to talk about Shawn Ferrell's track record and I've got nothing against Shawn Ferrell I mean he he could be amazing at his job and he be very right, but then Tom Lee is not translating that same message to his clients.
So, if he is doing very well and all of these things, but then Tom is going on these podcasts and saying, "We're going to hit new highs," that is the the the stressing part. He said, "For those who tuned into this outlook, I expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new all-time highs by year end, effectively ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, shallower bare market." He's bullish longterm, but he believes that there's going to be a an extreme sell-off down to 60,000 Bitcoin, $60,000 in price for Bitcoin.
Going back to Cassian's post about Bitmine is still accelerating purchases rather than slowing them. Yes, they just made, you know, a $230 million purchase in Ethereum this week. But whenever we actually look at how much money they're raising to acquire Ethereum, this is not accelerating. And that's just a complete facade.
I mean, it's not true at all. It's slowing and in fact this is the second lowest week of raise that we've seen since Bitcoin or since BMR has been acquiring Ethereum. Then we look at the amount of ads on Ethereum. The amount of uh total Ethereum that's been added each week. This is not accelerating.
Crypto or Ethereum has essentially got its price cut in half and we're not seeing even the same amount of you know 200,000 plus ETH being purchased over the weeks. So that's not true. Okay. accelerating what from 50,000 a couple weeks ago whenever Ethereum was at some of the lowest prices that it was at.
This is whenever you should be buying the most that you could get your hands on. Tom Lee is suggesting that hey, we're going to see new all-time highs and all of these things. They are acquiring more cash. So, I do think that Tom Lee believes what Sean Ferrell has to say. He he's positioning a little bit the portfolio to have a stronger cash position.
He's not diluting nearly as much. And honestly, if he did believe it went down to 60,000 completely, I think that he should raise even more cash. But they they still have a premium. They can still do the the BMR strategy, but they're not talking the way that they should be. Like like the the cash ra the cash raises whenever he was talking about it hitting structural lows and we've bottomed in Ethereum didn't make any sense to me.
And now, you know, you have people on their team that are sending out messages to their paid customers that are saying, "Hey, there's a lot lower to go and we're actually going to break new lows." So, no wonder it got leaked. Cuz I think even the paying members were a little bit surprised with that messaging.
But right now, this is where BMR's cheat sheet sits at. If we end up getting down to 2,800, I mean, expect BMR's price under $20 a share. You could see them in the teens essentially. Uh, so we don't want to see that. Hopefully, it's not what ends up coming true. And if it does come true, hopefully BMR can take advantage of that by raising enough cash in order to buy those dips rather than focusing on buying Ethereum here at, you know, $3,000 plus prices.
I'm not changing my positioning in BMR. I'm also not buying anything. I I think that there is ways to say, hey, this is fair that that individual analysts can have their own independent views of the market and that does not all need to be co-signed by Tom Lee. I completely agree. But I also think that Tom Lee is not giving his full perspective of how large this potential headwind in 2026 might be.
He's saying like, hey, you know what? It might be a little choppy of a market, but having a 50 to 70% draw down from all-time highs in January is an insanely huge move. That would be a massive massive correction. So, if he does believe that, uh, it should be let known to customers and and if he doesn't, then that should also be known rather than just saying to the Cassian Post, "Hey, well said.
We all have different perspectives." I don't know if that's enough for me. So, I'm not buying anything right now in terms of BMR. I'm going to continue to hold out my position because I do believe in Ethereum, but honestly, I don't think that this is a great look for Tom Lee or BMR. And I think that they really need to start ramping up their transparency, including even showing us what their total share counts are and average cost of Ethereum.
It's crazy that we don't really know what the MNAV is other than where it is currently. What's the book value versus the actual market value just like a micro strategy would or really any other digital asset treasury. I think it's one of those things that whenever everything's going well, you can kind of excuse some of those problems because it's going well, but once everything starts falling apart, you're not happy with some of the transparency that could have been given.
Cuz I can handle, you know, a a stock going down, especially if I can see all of the potential problems that could be arising. But without that transparency and a lower share price, it's just a lot to handle in a short term. Thank you all so much for watching. Really do appreciate your time. Bye-bye for now.
Comments 0