저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
BMR(Bitmine)의 이더리움 매입 속도 둔화와 MNAV 0.98배(1배 미만) 하락을 지적. 스테이킹 개시(약 4.8만 ETH, 연 3% 보상)는 긍정 요인이나 수익의 핵심은 ETH 가격. Tom Lee의 ETH 목표가(2025말 1만~1.2만 달러)는 크게 빗나갔고, 진행자는 BMR을 계속 보유 중이며 매도하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 단기 ETH 하락(1,800달러 시나리오) 가능성을 언급하며 분할 매수 주의를 권고.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, it looks like what we feared most might actually be coming true. BMR is slamming the brakes on their Ethereum purchases, which to me only means one thing. The assumption that Ethereum is going to go into some sort of winter or potentially even a crash is their primary assumption.
Now, as we can see from BMR over the last 5 days since our last update or over the last week essentially is that we've seen quite the sell-off from $32.60 now down to $28.54 while Ethereum has stayed for the most part flat during the exact same time period. Now, if we go back, the assumption that we were referring to was Sean Ferrell, head of digital asset strategy for Fundstrat, said that Ethereum would likely be around 1,800 to 2000 as their base case for the first half of 2026.
Now, to be fair to Sean, he also feels that crypto is going to be testing brand new highs in second half of 2026. So, a slight shortterm bare market leading it much lower. However, Tom Lee said by the end of January, we're going to be hitting all new highs for Bitcoin and Bitcoin and Ethereum are going to be trailing essentially one to one.
So, if Bitcoin goes up, Ethereum will trail that as well. Ethereum and Bitcoin's ratio, which would cause it to continue to follow, has been staying flat consistently. So, we're not seeing any struggles here. Although Ethereum might be down slightly, it's seeing the exact same trend for Bitcoin. So that ratio is staying intact.
Tom Lee's assumption is that not only will we stay at this level, but we actually should go up even higher than Bitcoin. So Ethereum might do better than Bitcoin over time. Now, this update was a little bit special because although they did tell us how much tokens they ended up purchasing, they also announced that they started staking, which is quite interesting.
We'll talk about that later on, and their cash and moonshot holdings as well, which we'll go through. But we also ended up getting a BMR video update which the entire multi- like three minute video was just saying please please please vote yes on their additional dilution that they want of up to 50 billion total shares.
They literally went through each individual brokerage and how to vote and where to vote and how to possibly do this. Little bit of a a beg and plea to vote yes and the deadline is January 14th. If you can see over time, the BMR Ethereum holdings has just continued to climb. There's no problems there.
Getting closer to the 5% total stake of Ethereum. But look at this ad. 44,400 new Ethereum added was a new record low. They've not added this little of Ethereum since they've started acquiring Ethereum as a digital asset treasury. Not good at all. Cash had stayed flat at $1 billion for essentially the past four weeks.
and they only raised about $131 million in order to acquire this 44,000 Ethereum, which roughly means that they added about $4.4 million new shares at roughly $30 per share. If we end up looking at the amount that they raised, this is an all-time low. Like, not even since this point where we only raised 205 million, we only raised $130.7 million.
This is really depressing whenever you look at the amount that they've raised over time. Yes, we are hitting new higher highs on the total amount of Ethereum, which at the end of the day is what we care about. And if they stop doing this or sell, that's where the real problems are going to emerge. But in terms of the idea of getting to 5%, yes, we are slowly getting there.
I've been showing this off for the last maybe 6 weeks or so. But the last 3 weeks I find very interesting. And this time we found something interesting. Zero cash has been added in the last 3 weeks and the amount of Ethereum that's been adding has just been getting smaller and smaller and smaller. Now down to 736 million total added which only 130 million was this week.
Very very depressing whenever you consider if you believe that we're going to hit all-time highs in Ethereum at the end of January. That's a month from now. Now the cheat sheet for BMR that I have created which shows what I believe the total share count to be 448 million that's by taking the amount of money that would be needed to raise in order to increase cash or increase the Ethereum holdings and at the average price that they sit at versus the average price of the stock price at the time in order to dilute the stock.
That's how we get to that share price. We end up getting the share sorry share count and the share price ends up leading us to a market cap and then we can compare that to the Ethereum holdings. This ends up getting us to an MNAV. Now, this MNAV is at 1.06 times. Now, once we add in the cash in all of their moonshots in in Bitcoin holdings, which for some reason, they also said that they went from 193 million Bitcoin down to 192 sold a single Bitcoin.
This ended up leading us to a BMR MNAV including their cash of 0.98 below one times multiple meaning that if you were to just hold Ethereum or something like this it would actually be worth more. It's cheaper to buy BMR than it is to buy Ethereum. How about that? So that's not a great sign but that's where we are right now.
It means that it's going to be very hard for them to continue to dilute to buy more Ethereum. But on the next breath, as for us as investors, the lower it gets into an MNAV premium, the more we are sort of incentivized to buy because it's actually cheaper for us to buy BMR now than it is for us to buy Ethereum.
Not by much, but 0.02 times. Now, for the staking update, this is where there could be sort of a saving grace for sure. We ended up seeing multiple updates saying how BMR was starting to stake, and this actually got double checked by Look on Chain. They completely agree and they've been, you know, extremely accurate on these checks.
Now, Bitmine also stated that they are now staking 48,627 Ethereum and they are on track for the Maven staking solution for Q1 of 2026. So, currently they are staking roughly about 10% of their total holdings. What are they going to do with that? Well, they could continue to hold the new Ethereum because the stake is not paid out in cash.
It's paid out in Ethereum. They could just hold this Ethereum to get closer to their 5% holdings. They could potentially sell that Ethereum to buy back shares if we're under a onetime MNAV. That might be the best thing to do. Or they could pay out a dividend to shareholders, which we just got a dividend payment.
So, congratulations to all those that are holding BMR for receiving that very small dividend. the current BMR staking. If they did end up staking 48,000 Ethereum at a 3% staking award, potentially this could go up to maybe 4%. But that's still 12,258 Ethereum for free that we weren't receiving before on an annualized basis.
Okay, this at roughly a $3,000 price per Ethereum, which is not where it is at the end of the day, but pretty well it's been trading in that range, is about $36,700,000. Now, if they were to stake their entire amount, 4.1 million ETH at 3%, that would actually net them 123,000 ETH annually. That's the Maven solution.
That's the hope. But we're continuing to climb up on the amount of holdings. So, let's quickly look at this. If we get to 5% ETH holdings, which is roughly 6 million Ethereum at a 3% stake, that's 181,000 Ethereum annually. This at $3,000 per ETH is roughly $543 million of just pure dividend potential buybacks or potentially just adding even more onto the Ethereum holdings.
Nice 3% yield. Pretty good. However, if Ethereum continues to climb, this is going to change that stake reward potentially all the way up to $95 million. or what Tom Lee just recently said, his hope for December of 2026 is that Ethereum gets to 20,000. This could lead to $3.6 billion of total just pure net income cuz that interest income that they're receiving doesn't cost them anything to get it.
So, it would just completely net them, you know, an amazing $3.6 billion. That's the hope. Okay. But the real thing is not them just staking. I mean, it is a good benefit to get a 3% yield, but the real increase in earnings here is going to be on the price of Ethereum. So, if Ethereum doesn't run, BMR doesn't run.
That's essentially where we're at right now. So, honestly, I'm a little conflicted right now. Obviously, Tom Lee cannot come out and truly say that he believes that Ethereum is going to crash over the next couple months because then he's going to incite that panic that everyone doesn't want to believe in.
In the next breath, he also said, "Hey, at the end of the year of 2025, Ethereum is roughly going to be at 10 to 12,000 per ETH. We're roughly 25% of the way there. So, it's actually fallen roughly 30% from when he made that assumption, not that we actually, you know, had doubled or 2.5x to even get anywhere near his price prediction." That is a very sad truth.
And he staked his reputation on that. And obviously you can see it from any of the comments, even the comments of this video. People are not happy. I get that. You know, there's got to be some risk mitigation. Do not pour a large percentage of your holdings even now while we're down to try to chase this mass selloff.
It can get a lot worse before it gets better. And if Ethereum does end up going down to 1,800, BMR stock price is only going to fall from here. Now, I'm not calling for that, but it is definitely what BMR is believing because they didn't raise anything. They are not spending their $1 billion of cash.
If they thought that we were at a low here under $3,000 for ETH, their cash would be bottomed out and they'd be holding a lot of Ethereum waiting for it to go higher. But no, just like anyone else's portfolio, they have a lot of cash because they're expecting the worst. Hopefully that's not what we end up seeing, but it's what BMR and potentially Sean Frell is also believing in and Tom Lee is listening.
And by the way, I'm holding all my shares of BMR. I'm not selling. I like the way that they're raising without raising debt or any, you know, there there's no cause for bankruptcy here. Even if we do go down to 1,800, it doesn't threaten the business. It's just hard on our portfolios potentially in the short term.
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