저자: JB · 한국인
요약 보기
JB는 어제 나스닥 보합과 애플 낙폭 과대 반등, 중국의 화웨이 7nm 칩 이슈로 인한 반도체 하락을 짚었다. 일본 GDP 하향 수정으로 엔화 약세·달러 강세 기대가 나와 미국채가 강세였다고 봤다. 중국 공무원 아이폰 사용 금지는 과도한 충격이 아니라고 판단했다. 다음 주 CPI 전 SOXL 반등을 기대하며 매수했고, 채권 순롱 포지션 축소와 9월 장기채 발행 감소를 근거로 금리 안정을 예상했다. 단기 청산 가능성도 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. This is JB. Although I mentioned it in a post on the community board last night, I have entered into a buy order for SOXL. For the past few months, I had essentially not made any additional purchases, only securing cash by partially taking profits on SOXL and TQQ near their peaks. However, I will explain why I entered into an additional buy order for SOXL specifically at this timing while discussing yesterday's market conditions, so if you are interested, please listen until the end.
First of all, the Nasdaq market ended flat yesterday, halting the downward trend of the past few days. I believe this was largely due to the impact of Apple stopping its decline, which had been plummeting due to negative news from China. Morgan Stanley took a favorable stance for Apple, stating that the stock 's plunge over the past two days was excessive, which had an influence.
This is because the market's concern was that the Chinese government's ban on iPhone use among civil servants might trigger an impact on the entire Chinese population. However, given the current economic situation in China, it is unlikely they will go that far. This is because Apple's major iPhone production factories are located in China...
You know, thanks to this, a huge number of high-quality jobs are being created around China. However, given that China already has a high unemployment rate, they would n't go out of their way to do something that wouldn't benefit them. Also, for the Chinese economy to recover, foreign capital ultimately needs to flow in.
But if they impose severe sanctions on Apple, who will invest in China in the future? So, for this reason alone, there was an opinion that the decline over the past few days was excessive, and as a result, Apple's stock price was able to halt its downward trend. Now, however, the semiconductor sector ended with a decline again.
The reason for this is that three major players were shocked to find that the latest smartphone released by China's Huawei uses a 7nm semiconductor chip. Naturally, the hegemonic power, the United States, was bound to take the most sensitive stance. So, from the US perspective, they were essentially saying, "Hey, you imposed export restrictions on all the latest equipment and things going to China, so how on earth is this possible?
Is there a semiconductor company that ignored us and secretly exported to China just to make some money? Anyway, just let us catch whoever it is," and declared that they would conduct a thorough investigation. The Department of Commerce issued a statement, and the White House released a similar one.
As the atmosphere shifted in this direction, a sentiment spread throughout the semiconductor sector that a massive wave of sanctions related to exports to China might be unnecessarily imposed later, making a decline inevitable. Now, let's talk about bonds. Although bonds gave back some of their gains towards the end of yesterday, they still rose quite significantly in the early and mid-stages, and the overall sentiment ended on a positive note.
The reason for this—though this is just my personal opinion—is that Japan released revised GDP figures, which were lower than previously announced numbers. Furthermore, the details revealed that the Japanese economy is somewhat weak. Consequently, until recently, there had been various talk threatening US bonds, such as claims that Japan would now shift to austerity.
However, there was a sense of relief regarding this. People thought, " Looking at the current situation in Japan, it seems they won't be able to tighten. Then the yen should weaken. And a weak yen means a strong dollar, and if the dollar strengthens, US bonds are fine." I believe this led to US bonds being largely correct.
Besides this, there are a few other things I think... There are further reasons for the bond rally, but since they are all connected to my purchase of SOXL, I will discuss them at the end. So, I think that is enough for you to understand regarding yesterday's market conditions. Now, let me talk about why I chose to buy SOXL at this specific timing.
First, and this might be the most important point, I felt that the market had dropped too excessively in the short term due to negative news related to China. Of course, this might not be just a short-term setback. Cases where it doesn't end as a short-term setback are like this: the U.S. really sets itself up and creates an atmosphere of sharp confrontation with China again, pouring out massive sanctions on semiconductor companies and heading towards a war of mutual destruction.
If the U.S. government obstructs foreign capital from entering China and acts as if to say, "Let's see who dies first," the situation could become quite serious. Of course, in that case, China would naturally die first, but the damage to the U.S. would also be quite significant. In particular, as I mentioned in a video I uploaded recently, I believe the U.S.
needs to tolerate China's economic recovery to some extent, if only to save its bonds. And what unfolded as a result of this is what happened last time with the U.S. I view it as a meeting between the Minister of Commerce and the Chinese Minister of Commerce, and the atmosphere at the time was very positive.
Therefore, I do not think the situation will suddenly worsen now. However, looking at the current situation, some might think China struck first and wonder why they unnecessarily created such discord by banning iPhones for government officials amidst a good atmosphere. I share a similar sentiment; it would have been better if they hadn't created this conflict.
But on the other hand, if you really think about it, I wonder if this measure is really that serious. They did n't issue a directive for a nationwide boycott of iPhones. I see this simply as a strategic move to provide a stepping stone for Huawei to make a comeback. The justification is also quite plausible; it was simply presented as banning foreign smartphones for government officials for the sake of national security.
Of course, while this itself is a bit of an exaggeration, I do not think it is a negative factor that will escalate to that extent. Therefore, I expect the market to make a cool-headed assessment of this matter, and I am anticipating a rebound in SOXL's stock price as a result. Now, the second reason is next week...
There are no particular issues until Wednesday. There isn't much to see before the CPI announcement, so I think the stock price might recover, at least to the extent that it has fallen too excessively. For reference, I haven't decided yet whether to take a short-term profit and exit the SOXL position I entered yesterday or hold it for the long term.
However, if I decide to close it out as a short-term trade, I think I will likely do so before the CPI announcement. Also, thirdly, I bought SOXL because I believe bonds will stabilize next week. JP Morgan released the results of a survey conducted among government bond clients, stating that their net long positions in government bonds have fallen to their most neutral level since the end of May.
For reference, selling pressure on government bonds was strong prior to that. The fact that it has now reached a neutral level suggests there might be room for bond yields to stabilize next week. Furthermore, corporate bond issuance, which influenced interest rate increases over the past few days, has almost completely ended.
Since issuing corporate bonds by solid companies is practically on par with government bonds, demand tends to flow heavily into these corporate bonds. Therefore, over the past week, the US There was a period where bonds showed overall weakness. However, corporate bond issuance is almost complete. Also, the absurd concentration of long-term bond issuance to the Treasury in August contributed to the rise in bond yields.
Starting this September, however, issuance volume will definitely decrease significantly. If $ 1,500 billion worth of long-term bonds were issued last August, only $90 billion will be issued in September. So, in any case, you can consider the expectation that bonds will flow more calmly and stably next week as one of the reasons why I was able to buy SOXL.
Well then, that’s all for today’s video. I’ll see you in the next one. Thank you.
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