저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 확산은 인도 IT에 경고 신호이나 두려워할 필요는 없다는 시각. 인도 소형주는 18개월간 부진했으나 현재가 매집 적기라고 주장하며, 방산·소재·광업·제약 등 로컬 제조 섹터의 강세를 언급. 장기적으로 멀티배거 기회는 항상 존재한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Anthropic 2700 companies 2700 employees market cap Indian IT fully Indian IT is it some kind of warning sign for us? No, I definitely seen that what you're referring to Anthropic and all. So, what I did somewhere that they are having the 2700 or 800 employees and the market cap of this company is the you know, combined all the IT company in the world more than that.
Of course, it is a wake-up call for India. There is no doubt about it. If you will close you will shut your eyes. That means you are still sleeping, you know. So, this is certainly a wake-up call and I think that obviously we should also do There is a you see it is like a catch-22 situation. I read somewhere like if you are not investing in AI and all then chances are that if you are investing suppose blindly in AI and all chances are that you will lose your capital.
At the same time, if you do not invest in AI and all chances are that you will lose your company. Then you have to decide whether you are happy with losing your capital or you are happy losing your company. So, this is certainly a wake-up call for for India and for the entire world and mainly for India.
But I personally feel that ultimately we will rise to the occasion. I think we will also find our own way and to deal with this situation. Okay, you know when Let me just add one point to what you said. You know, the interesting stat I found yesterday was we all talking about Anthropic and how it's dominating the world of computing now.
But what does Anthropic use for a CRM system? It uses Salesforce, which is an old enterprise level software company. So, they will coexist. I think both these AI will be used to make enterprise software much better. I think AI software because of the scalability order to auditability and importance will not be taken over you know, you're You're to get a kid 20 year old kid to write code or enterprise system.
And the fact that Anthropic itself is a sales force probably tells you that. Yeah, you know, overnight Jack Dorsey's company sacked about 40% people. So, there's a bit of a risk that are we looking at some kind of jobless growth going forward? So it's just headline news. I don't think that's going to happen.
Oh, okay. Ramesh, you've seen many cycles, right? 2003, 2007, then we had the post-COVID bull market. Post-COVID bull market is when retail investors really came into the market. And this is something that you always envisage that you know, you want to see a bull market where retail participates. That happened.
But you know, when when I walked in this room, a lot of people were disappointed, despondent because you know, they have not made money in last 2 years. The market's been very tiring. And the Nifty might be at 26,000, but people's portfolio here might be at 22,000 if they're lucky. And some people's portfolio may be around 18,000.
What's your message in that case? Yeah, Anuj, you know, first of all, the idea that in the equity markets, you get linear returns, like 15% a year. You know, go to fixed deposits if you want to do that. The returns are by definition lumpy. They will never be linear over there. So, you'll have four good years and maybe three bad years.
That's part of the game. But what is the CAGR over 7 years? You have to look at it from that perspective. Secondly, I believe there's some rotation going on in the market that you're moving from the favorites of the market to other sectors. So, I think sectors that are still performing well are defense, perhaps, materials and mining, all the physical goods that are being manufactured.
Because the two trends that are very obvious to me that all countries want to localize their defense. We can't rely on a rules-based America hegemony defining the world. So, whether it's Europe, whether it's Japan, whether it's Asia, or whether it's America, each one will promote their own defense industry.
And B, everyone will promote their own local manufacturing. So, local mining, metals, uh local sourcing and supply will do good. So, I think they're disarming because perhaps they're looking at some wrong stocks. And if you start looking at metals, pharmaceuticals, defense, you're probably seeing some appreciation.
Absolutely. Uh So, Madhu, phir paisa kaise banega is market mein because, uh you know, we are stuck with only 10 or 12 stocks that are moving every day. Uh otherwise, it's been, you know, a bit of a downward journey for broader market in particular. So, Anuj, you know, again, it's the question is that you can choose the point from where you want to judge make a judgment about your investment returns, right?
I would choose a low point of COVID and say that if I had stayed invested in the markets, I would still done reasonably well, right? Very well. Yeah. And if you choose a point of time that, let's say, last 12 months may be not even 18 months. We need more. So, I've been around for 35 years and we have seen much uglier cycles of negative return or prolonged, if you may call it, bear market.
But, I think that time and again, these have always been proven to be opportunities. So, let's say uh what has happened in last 18 months has been literally no return on 18 months. The small cap index is still down, maybe 11 12%. Roughly, out of 1,000 companies, uh 350 companies are down more than 35 40%.
And PE contraction between large cap and small cap index is between 15 to 35%. In this time frame, while earnings have caught up. So, I remain really very positive at this point of time about investing specifically in a smaller companies. This is not random. You can't make a case that you invest in any small cap or any small company and you'll make money.
But, I think there'll be a steep correction. Prices have fallen a lot. There is literally virtually no investor interest because every large mutual fund has compulsion to invest and look at only large companies, right? They don't have the bandwidth or nor the intent to invest 50 hundred crore rupees even in one small companies.
So, at this point of time, if you can selectively get it right, this is the best time to accumulate stocks where, you know, whatever 3 6 9 months, and we have seen whenever we have bought stocks in this kind of environment is when we have really made uh serious money. Mhm. Okay, of course that the three gentlemen here are some of the best stock pickers generating returns of thousand times, two thousand times, uh sixteen thousand times.
Um Mr. Kedia, you know, of course uh is it getting tough to pick up multibaggers now in this kind of market because of AI and because everything gets discounted so fast? Are you finding it tough uh to sort of find those kind of winners that you identified say 15 or 20 years ago? So, [clears throat] regarding the 16,400 times whatever you said, Anuj, I would like to say that oh as they say, you know, ki samajh mein aata hai ki jaise aap AI aapko increase Is sorry changes so sala me dekhte hue aaye typewriter use hota tha uske baad computer computer aagya Y2K aagya internet agar aap pitch per tick ho to sab kuch aap sab kuch jhel lete ho aur apna rasta nikal lete ho.
I think that is what applicable even now also. And the second thing as you said that finding a multi-bagger, there is a quote of mine that you know, bull market or is like sunshine. It is always there somewhere. So, you are the only thing you have to agar aap ek cheez agar dekhoge to 1970s ke andar mein jo top 10 industries India ke andar mein the agar unki aap agar list agar dekhoge samjho Birla the Bangur Birla Vijay is saying.
Up Indian market multi-bagger could make a परेशानी bold here. Even in an American market which is like 60-70% of the world overall market capitalization. If you look at how many multi-baggers have been there in the last 5 years in a minute American markets, you will be amazed. Okay, what's that? So there is there there will always be in an opportunity to make disproportion money disproportionate money in equity.
This is only after 5 or 10 years you will realize what were the multi-baggers which were available today. Okay. I mean I don't know Nvidia was earning 3-4 which were available today. Okay. I mean, I don't know if Nvidia was earning 3-4 years back $4 billion a year. Mhm. Today it earns $45 billion a quarter.
A quarter. So, you know, opportunities are always staring us in the face. it's still kept you know getting bigger on this basis still giving 73% year-on-year. And that's what I say, if you can't see multibaggers, you got Nvidia. 20 years back, go back to Google. You got Meta book if you bought it at 100 bucks.
When will India create our own Nvidias? When will India create our own Nvidias? You know, at Rising Bharat I think it's it's an logical question. going to happen. We are not really into a tech-driven research. We are better in services because of sheer population. We are better in conserving capital because we have shortage of capital in India always.
So, I think we'll focus on what we're good at. Are we good in leading at research? I don't see that signs here. Okay.
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