저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
차마스 팔리하피티야는 2014~2015년 테슬라에 전환사채로 투자해 큰 수익을 냈다고 밝히며, 테슬라를 전기화·탈탄소·분산형 에너지(가정용 태양광·배터리·소프트웨어) 기업으로 재정의하고 장기 보유를 권했다. 테슬라 에너지 사업 수익성과 소프트웨어 확장을 근거로 들며, 주가가 현재 수준보다 몇 배 오를 수 있고 S&P500 편입이 임박했다고 주장한다. 단기 실적 논쟁보다 3~5년 복리 관점을 강조하고, 공매도 세력과 헤지펀드의 시장 조작 가능성을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
hello everyone some people look at the time I bought Tesla in 2014 or 2015 I had a lot of convertible debt that seemed like the best way to bet on Tesla and it paid off big time there's no doubt in my mind that Elon Musk is the most important person alive today people are finally ready for the real car company after 15 years but when I put money into the business I thought it would be the start of something bigger I believe Elon is done starting a car company it will be another one from him they know there's safe so they can do a lot of damage to the environment or look at pan and still get away with it but something strange is happening which is the total pants this can only get out of hand if the energy balance changes the law or a big competitor won't make you do it one day every home will have hydroponic panels solar panels batteries and software lets them live off the grid and store extra power in batteries Solutions and other things that are controlled by cities towns and governments will in turn turn off their usage of peers at a minimum and then over time will have very different usage characteristics from traditional utilities this is what Tesla is powering and this is what makes it a multi-trillion dollar company does it have the same return profile as when I bought it for say $25 or $30 a share No but it can be many times higher than where it is now I think this is a really important example of a much bigger Trend that's happening in the the stock market which is that retail investors now have access to so much information that it's almost on parity with people that work in traditional investment organizations and what we've seen is that's happened is that the quality of that analysis and the ability to see around the corner is as good and in many cases better than traditional investment firms and the way they view the problem so from day one you have had this massive tension between the Bulls and the Bears on this company and the Bulls basically saw a long-term Trend around electrification and the Bears tried to play with balance sheet mathematics of course if I said you can sell 990,000 cars but then if you negative sell 100,000 you've not sold 10,000 and you would say what does any of this mean you can use any convoluted logic to try to be short this stock and what you would have done is just lost an enormous amount of money and so what we're going to see now is that the stock is going to become part of the SN p500 it is is the Leading Edge when it comes to electrification and decarbonization and here's the thing Andrew what the Bulls will get right and what the Bears will ignore from hears that this is no longer about cars that that's the first wave of growth and I think people are pricing an evisceration of traditional autos and an enormous shift to EVS of which Tesla will get the disproportionate share so now what is the bet if you ask me as an investor who loves that company it was in page four or five of their quarterly earnings release where they talk about the energy business and they said a couple of interesting things the first is that it was profitable and the second is that they're also producing software now that allows effectively anybody to become a distributed utility now think of that for a second you were talking about one of the most predictable reasonable businesses that have raised hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars of debt and what tesle is going to do with their battery packs and their software is all of a sudden allow each of us to be in the business as well again people will get angry they will not understand they will try to push back and they will be wrong and what's going to happen is that this stock is now going to represent the totality around decarbonization and sustainability so it was really great to own this thing around cars for the first four years I did it I made a lot of money but now I underwrite this company as a bet towards decarbonization towards deregulated energy and towards the ability for all of us to become our little micro utilities observing from the sidelines for Tesla bulls and those with a Keen Eye for uncovering the next stock market gem this page has a lot of details about Tesla how much should Tesla stock cost what Tesla came up with and everything Elon Musk that is if you click on one of the ads in the text and then buy something I may get paid let me explain let's say you had a million chances to hit a golf ball off the pier and into a teacup I suspect that in a million times you would not be able to do it um but if you then took somebody else and they were able to do it nine times out of 10 you'd say wow that person is a great golf for the analogy that I would make is helon basically did that equivalent he was able to send a rocket into space to all kinds of interesting enormously productive useful things for the world while in space and then come back down and land on a boat in the middle of the ocean the kind of technical sophistication that he has in his mind that he's been able to apply across his companies is second to none quite honestly so when we looked at Tesla what we thought was a company at an inflection point that was as close to an its version of an iPhone moment and what I mean by that is a company that had been growing up taking risks and had finally found the mass Market product that would unlock an enormous amount of product Market fit and that was the model 3 and so far what I would say is he's living up to what he has signed up for which is to commercial electrification to commercialize an incredible user experience at price point that has frankly cannibalized its competitors and what you see in the results in my opinion is a company that is now maturing under all of that demand and so again is it the best suited company if you want to drive and observe quarter over quarter precision and performance no but if you want to take a step back and take a 3 fiveyear view and say where can I compound my money and particularly with the converts what's so beautiful is its downside protected because it sits on top of all the equity and the other debt and so if you have any concern that there's liquidity issues or if you have any concerns that the company may have to sell they get paid first so to me it was a riskless option on the Edison of Our Generation the reason is because the common stock is not controlled unfortunately Enough by him or the Insiders what it's controlled by are a bunch of vulture like Venture and hedge funds mostly hedge funds who like to preon that company if you look at for example the Twitter traffic or if you look at the Forum traffic around Tesla the amount of hyping or under hyping the amount of sniping is enormous all of that signals to me that it is a market that is out of the control of the founders and the executives and firmly in the hands of financial manipulators perspective is by the bonds you're protected and allow Elon to execute well all I see frankly is that he has tried to execute to the best of his abilities he puts out aggressive numbers he tries to meet those numbers but that's okay because in the course of the year or in the course of the 5 years if you take a fiveyear step back and say what does he promised in 2014 what is he doing in 2019 you'd be ecstatic similarly if you take a step back and say from 2019 to 2024 let the man do his job will we be better or e
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