저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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블랙록 25주년을 맞아 글로벌 자본시장 확대와 인프라 투자 성장을 강조. 사모신용·인프라 투자 확대(GIP 250억달러 펀드, MGX·MS·엔비디아 파트너십 300억달러 지분+1000~1200억달러 부채 추진)를 설명하고, 미국 경기는 2~3% 성장으로 연착륙이 아닌 지속 성장을 전망. 시장이 반영한 과도한 금리인하 기대(포워드 커브)는 과하며 연내 추가 인하는 제한적이라고 봄. 중국은 공급망 다변화 추세로 구조적 부담이 있다고 평가, 유럽은 자본시장 통합 필요성 강조.
다듬은 글
[ I am delighted to be joined by the one and only Larry Frink of Black Rock Larry thank you so much for joining us first of all happy anniversary there was that prospectus the 1 of October 1999 where're Black Rock went public so you're 25 years young was great reading wasn't it yeah it's a really good day for us it's our 25th anniversary uh it's our day that we are closing in GP and right around this time we're going to have our 30th Anniversary here in Germany so it's it's a good day I'm very pleased that our stock performance is up you know close to 11 ,000% over over that time uh actually 20 times greater than the S&P so the market has changed so much in that time and it's amazing 25 years you know there's a lot more private there's a lot more credits you're gone into infrastructure I'm not going to ask you what the 25 years to come will bring but what are you most optimistic about in the next 3 years well I think one of the reasons why our stock has done so well is I think we we understood that more and more of the global economy would be moving to the capital markets and I think all the things you suggested is just an indication of all the movements towards the capital markets and I think this is going to be broadly a world event we're we're seeing more and more countries focusing on their Capital markets a great economy is an economy that has a strong Capital markets and a strong banking system we've seen here in Europe historically a strong banking system and a weak Capital markets that's changing right now here in Europe but in other countries like Japan you had the kashida government doubling down their retirement up U uh tax deductibility for for a product they have a desire to building out their Capital markets in India Prime Minister Modi is focusing on retirement to build out their Capital Market to broaden their entire economy and I think that's that that's the movement for the next 25 years in front of us a further broadening of the global Capital markets whether that is private debt infrastructure debt uh private Equity venture capital and I think this is important and if I look back over the 25 years one of the strengths that I see is because of the strength of the US capital markets the US uh influence in the world has become broader and greater than it was 25 years ago and that is because of the depth of the capital markets in all of this Larry where do where do you find the best deal so for example in infrastructure if you look at the closure of GP it's today this was a massive play what does it mean for integration what does it mean for how we fundraising for infrastructure well Gip is in the midst of closing a $25 billion uh infrastructure product uh the old black rock uh our our infer team is is going to be raising another $10 billion and then we announce um a partnership with Microsoft Nvidia and mgx um we have aspirations of raising $30 billion of equity and then beyond that um more debt Associated when we built out these AI data Center so so to me this is the dawning of infrastructure when I look around the world today I see the inadequacies of infrastructure in almost every country so we need to be decarbonizing we need to be digitizing we need to be moving forward we need to be building out more and more and I think this is one of the big issues as I wrote in an editorial a few months back in the ft and I spoke of the G7 I spoke about every economy needs to focus on growth there's too much focus on should we lower taxes should we raise taxes not enough how do we stimulate growth and I think infrastructure is a major component of how we stimulate growth and we don't because of the breath of the Capital Market we don't have to rely on federal spending or state spending there is enough capital in the private sector that will be able to fund these new projects and so to me this is a dawning of a of the new reality that we're going to see broad broadening of public and private Investing For infrastructure is is there a worry that it becomes quite political so there are a couple of projects Malaysia Minnesota that have been politicized is there a danger that infrastructure becomes a new ESG I I see a very different outcome of that this is helping government build out their infrastructure there is no question there there may be one project or another project that may be politicized for one reason or another but overall in my conversations with politicians worldwide there they know they're in need of more private Capital so I dearly hope it's not politicized if it's politicized in one location it means money is going to seek another safer spot and so you always have those type of risks but capital is free moving and capital is going to be seeking a safe Sound Investment you know we are the largest retirement manager in the world our job is to try to be finding Investments on behalf of our retirees to find safe uh outcome over a long period of time so if there is a an event that politicizes it money will leave and money will seek another destination where does the smart money stay away from is there anywhere in the markets where either price Perfection or it's too risky I know we talk about commercial real estate markets move up and down you always see you mentioned like commercial real estate you see too much money moving in one one area then it then it runs away from it I think that's that's what markets do they we test the outer boundaries of pricing and it becomes maybe um a a level in which that we don't find it's a great outcome for a long-term investing and then money moves to another another destination I think that's a natural movement so I'm not worried about one area versus another area the one other thing that I think everybody ask me is you know is a market so pricey and yet all this geopolitical issues I would argue today because of the the expansion of the global Capital Market markets we're diffusing more risk than ever there is actually less systemic risk today than ever before you imagine private credit private credit is chiefly matching a liability and an asset together it's not leveraging 8 to1 like in a banking system that's a good example of diffusing some uh systemic risk but as more and more capitals broadening out how they invest where they invest that actually reduces less concentration in one area of course we've seen especially in cities um a a a decline in commercial real estate but that's a natural process but there's nothing systemic about it you may lose money on one building but you're moving into other destinations like data centers you're moving into different cities that may have Rising population growth but you know you can't fight demographics so there are some cities that are shrinking obviously commercial real estate in those cities are going to be declining with that declining population Larry what's your your your play in private credit how much bigger do you want to how much you want in this SP we have large aspirations as we wrote about it last year and we continue to be building out a private credit area and there's more to come um we're we're very excited about our position if you just think about the role of infrastructure debt if you think about what we what we announced with mgx and Microsoft raising $30 billion of equity but we're going to have to we're going to raise 100 to 120 billion doar of debt associated with those data centers so I actually believe as we move out and build building out more and more infrastructure investing you're going to see more infrastructure or private credit associated with that and so that will also represent a great great opportunity that that you know you have a hyperscaler like a meta like a Microsoft like a Amazon uh that are you have their credit that you're going to be able to leverage it up and provide returns stable returns over 15 20 years because that's what those leases will be on these data centers and so you have a great opportunity for long-term investing Larry on the US economy and when we talked about us exceptionalism do do you worry that actually there are two very different outcomes with the US election that could bring the economy in different ways uh both candidates um have in many cases very similar views on making the US even stronger both candidates in their interpretation how that may happen May May differ um our job is to work with any political position our job is to be working with the US government like we we're here in Germany we're working with the German government there's going to be election here next year too our job is to be working with societies and building u a platform together and so we're not trying to make any judgments but but you deploy Capital differently under President Trump than under President Harris on a margin not I mean not that much no I I think we're over conflate what it means I mean I don't think the us is going to be pivoting that much depending on one outcome um you know we're not focusing on the day day to-day movements of markets we're focus on is the US an exceptional place to invest for 5 years 10 years 20 years that's what we're focusing on yes there may be moments where you could have a 10% or even a 15 or 20% uh downdraft is does that represent a major shift or does that represent an opportunity and so you have to look at it that way in most cases over the last 30 years anytime you had a 10 or 20% downdraft you wanted to be there standing by and buying and those who ran away over a 20-year Horizon have lost a lot of possible return are you optimistic about Europe so you're one of the biggest shareholders in unit credit you're one of the biggest shareholders in the Commerce Bank yes does a combination needs you know does it make a bit of impetus for Europe does it make sense I am a very large believer uh on a banking and a capital markets Union I think that's the strength of the United States but Europe needs to do that I've read the drogy report because we are large sholders in both I don't talk about any uh any any activity uh about one organization versus another but technically I'm a I'm I I look at the strength of the United States and much of the strength is because of the strength of our Capital markets and our banking system Europe needs a stronger Capital market system and it needs a more unified banking system and I think that's going to be urgently necessary for Europe to go to the next step so as a shareholder you don't get involved have you spoken to the chief Executives I I'm not going to talk about it and two I don't do any of the voting at Black Rock myself that's not my responsibility um let me just say I I speak to a lot of Executives on this I speak to a lot of um um politicians on these matters and that's between me and the politicians what's your take on China right now I would have said before these Chinese actions of last week in terms of the massive fiscal and monetary policy shifts um China was going from bad to worse I think they recognize now that their economy was you know descending quite rapidly there was a lack of confidence and I and I think we're going to have to wait and see is this enough to stabilize the I would say the failings of the of confidence um and as as I spoke to more and more Executives in China uh there was a a fear that you know we haven't found the bottom yet could this be the bottom uh for China you know I think systematically you're going to see more and more companies diversifying their supply chains and you're seeing that you're seeing India as a great destination you're seeing Philippines and Vietnam as Great Destinations closer to the United States Mexico has been an incredible destination for more and more manufacturing and so that's not going to change we are going to see a systematic change in how we manage Supply chains I think Co taught us a lot of lessons on too large a dependency and with all the disruptions of Supply chains everybody's waking up to we need to have a more resilient supply chain his before Co we talked about we need have we we need you know the most efficient supply chain when you have those issues efficiencies didn't work and we had real big disruptions and every company's focusing on a more a broadening a more Diversified supply chain so you don't have these type of disruption and that's a f that's going to be a downdraft for China uh so that's not that will be continuing lar you you seem very bullish about I guess the next two to three years but there's a lot of you know there's China there's a lot of unsettled politics there's AI which I know you're playing through Microsoft and data centers is there anything that unsettles you that the world is living through look it I think every moment it's unsettling uh the war in Ukraine which we haven't talked about is incredibly unsettling and very destabilizing for Europe the war in the Middle East right now with Lebanon and Gaza is very unsettling at the same time as I said we are broadening the capital markets that the even with these type of disruptions we're not seeing disruption in in the energy Market um and we're not we're we're seeing more diversification and so the markets are able to overcome some of these now if they they create more supply chain disruptions they create supply chain disruptions for energy that changes the whole ecosystem but right now I don't see anything that really to me is going to be disrupting this tremendous momentum the amount of trillions of dollars that are going to be necessary for infrastructure investing is going to be vital to uplift the economies worldwide and this is why I'm still you know urging more and more economies to focus on growth focus on how to build out their infrastructure that will lift up the economy and create great jobs and when you look at the US economy you're not you're expecting a soft Landing or is there a danger actually that that we get um I don't see any Landing the economy is going to continue to grow at 2 plus 3% I don't even know why we use a landing Landing last time means it goes to zero it goes you know I don't I I know we use those words it's really fun to talk about not going to crash Ive I've been very consistent we are not we're not going to have a hard Landing but I don't see a soft land we're going to continue we're continuing to move and navigate it that is despite all that there are segments of the economy that are struggling there are segments of the economy that are doing really well we are you know we spend so much time focusing on the segments that are doing poorly and I'm not trying to suggest that's not a the right thing to do but we're not looking at in the holistic way that other parts of the economy are doing really really well look at corporate earnings overall they've been very strong um and I think they're going to continue to be very strong we have you know we we do have segments of the economy that are very strong and I that's why I don't know why we talk about a hard or soft Landing we're continuing we're going to grow at 2 to 3% it's the FED Watchers blame the FED Watchers because they're all who are they I don't follow them by the way let me just tell you one let me just tell you I think the forward curve is wrong we're not going to see and I think chairman pal said that yesterday you know we're going to be patient as we I I think the amount of easing that's in the forward curve is crazy I mean I do believe there's there's there's room for EAS in more but not as much as a forward curve would indicate and this is what a flaw in the markets a flaw in perception analis markets markets move they have to readjust and I think yesterday was a small Readjustment I I mean I I don't look at this as a problem you're talking about the tiktock on the market I don't spend any time on the tiktock on the market I'm aware of it but I'm not you know whether it's you know the Federal Reserve Titan I mean eases another 100 150 we'll see we'll see I mean you know I I think we are I see more policies by more government that tend to be more inflationary than deflationary and so with that in mind it it's hard for me to see another 200 Bas points of decline in short rates I'm going to I'm going to use that you know the Tik Tok of the market is fine but secondary Larry as always thank you so much for joining us Larry think Black Rock chairman
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