저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Dalio는 Fed 금리 인하 폭(25 vs 50bp)보다 구조적 힘이 중요하다고 주장. 부채 증가로 실질금리를 마이너스로 유지해야 하고 통화가치 하락·우상향 수익곡선이 불가피하다며 채권 보유에 불리하다고 봄. 미국은 극심한 양극화와 정치적 분열, 중국은 부동산·소득 침체로 구조조정이 필요하다고 진단. 중국 투자는 포트폴리오의 작은 비중으로 유지한다고 언급. AI는 의사결정 보조 도구로 활용 중.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg audio Studios podcasts radio news I'm hinda ammen in Singapore where the 11th annual milk and Asia Summit is underway we want to welcome blo television viewers as well as radio listeners all over the world well joining us now is Ray Delio founder and CIO Mentor at Bridgewater Associates Ray good to have you with us good to be here global leaders they're grappling with a host of issues but you say there are five key factors forces that are perhaps uh defining and shaping the global economy before we get there though today a big day for the markets the FED front and center 25 of 50 that is a key question and I know you said before that you're right 65% of the time when it comes to Market so what's the bet on I think it's such a silly bet like 25 or 50 it doesn't make a difference I think that's the problem with the new cycle and all of this they're losing sense of the bigger picture Okay fed policy what does the FED have to do fed has to keep interest rates high enough to satisfy the creditors that they're going to get a real return without having them so high that the debtors have problem so now if we're looking at this whether it's 25 or 50 basis points 25 basis points is going to be depending would be the right thing to do if you look at the whole picture as a whole if you look at the mortgage situation which is worse and that affects more people then it's probably 50 basis point but let's get beyond that okay and talk about these five big forces the first of those forces is the force that you're referring to which is excuse me the debt money economy Dynamic and force okay so we have a big debt increase an enormous amount of we have an enormous amount of debt and it's going to keep increasing and one man's debts are another man's liabilities okay so what is that going to mean for monetary policy okay as you have to sell more and more of those bonds what will be done I think the same thing has done in Japan though that what happens is there's not going to be a default of course there won't be a default but increasingly they have to drive down real interest rates so that real interest rates are sign signicantly negative so you're going to have a NE in order to service the debt you have to have a significantly negative real rate and you also have to have then the depreciation of the value of money because inflation Rises so that you have to have a nominal growth rate in other words inflation plus real growth that is above the nominal interest rate and you have to have a real interest rate that is negative and you have to have a positive slope yield curve so that holding bonds is a bad deal what is the state of the US economy I mean we're talking about 25 or 50 based on the assumptions of how the economy is doing okay from the data that we've gotten so far does it justify 50 I mean what does it say um we have a model for estimating what what should be the mar the economy right now is very very very close to an equilibrium level in many ways if you're just looking at what is and you're not looking at the debt problem and it would look like there should be a modest easing of interest rates and a move gradually to a more positively sloped yield curve what we would call normal it's fairly normal except it's not normal in the way that it's so skewed so if we look at the markets and we look at the way the population's income levels are for the various sectors if you look at the bottom 60% if you look at the politics the left and the right and the nature of what is going on the Two Worlds that we live in in terms of that the economy and the values that brings us to the election so if we are talking about let's say monetary policy you have to look at the five forces so back to the five forces the first Force we talked about the second fourth is the force of internal order and disorder that progresses in a cycle there is um hard left and hard right so there's ideological differences that are creating a political situation that leads us to not only have possibly different policies dramatically different policies which will have an effect on the economy and have an effect on the markets but even worse or more concerning is the con that it's conceivable that one side or another might not accept losing okay so how will that will we have an orderly transition of power and will we have an orderly democracy in which there's the ability to have disagreement and the resolve of those disagreements I think that these are really questionable situations so the second force is that internal order disorder Force the third force is the great power conflict in other words throughout history there's a time when the rising power challenging the existing power and there's a world order thing going on and that World Order thing going on has to do with China the United States and so on and of course it becomes even more important than the economy because it is it's considered National Security okay the fourth influence is um all through time is acts of nature droughts floods and pandemics and climate is a big influence it's going to cost us $8 trillion dollar a year it's estimated in one way or another in an World economy that has 100 trillion and the fifth force of course is technology okay man's inventiveness of Technology throughout history those five forces have interacted so when we look at things I think think that there's the 25 or 50 basis points let's get beyond that let's look at the whole Arc of that in terms of the changing of all of those four five forces and their inter relationship let's get back to internal conflict and Link it to the US elections yeah how do you see it playing out how do you see the next few months 50 days of the elections how do you see that playing out well as I say I think that there's two questions first the question of will we have an orderly transition of power that's quite amazing will we have democracy work as it is that cannot be assured right so because behind all of this is that we have irreconcilable differences not just pertaining to taxes and wealth and economic policies and so on but in terms of values you know it's um how do people raise children related to sexuality and all of those things there are those those gaps so I think we hope for an orderly transition of power isn't it amazing that we would think could we not have that and then we go beyond that and then we say what about those policies that are going to be dealt with nobody's going to deal with the debt policy that's going to end up being monetized down the path then the question is issues of Taxation and those issues of Taxation will have an important impact on the capital markets if they're bought for after tax returns by and large it dep it's the uh important thing you lower corporate income taxes you I raise corporate income taxes it makes a difference to prices so we're going to have those issues a lot of issues to talk about regarding the election I think when we go beyond that most likely there is going to be uh irreconcilable differences and I think that you're going to see more movement to States so there'll be a challenge of what does the central government control and what do the state governments control and is there an an an obedience in a sense so we are coming more to a fragmented set of circumstances what we would need I I think is um strong leadership of the middle to bring the country together and leave and isolate more of the extremists if that was possible and then to make reforms because we do have a very skewed type of economy so is that Camala Harris oh there's no I'm it I don't think it's either of the candidates okay I don't think it's e no it's not either of the candidates I think that the issue of reforms strong leadership in the middle I don't see it we've been talking about a changing Global Order China comes to mind automatically the conversation right now is a massive slowdown in China economic malays but people seem to be missing the point that amidst all the Slowdown China is still innovating Renewables EVS how are you assess I I think that there are uh real issues in in China now and they changed really in the the last um four years and that is that U they they need a um restructuring um a lot of the spending H they they well let's say individuals 70% of their money was in real estate real estate has gone down stocks have gone down salaries have gone down and so and and as a result they're not spending and they're concerned and they're holding money in cash with deflation cash is a relatively good asset class that's kind of the household and the business sector is in that state at the same time you have the government sector as a problem because most of the government spending 83% of government spending is spent by local governments those local governments got their money by selling land for Real Estate okay there are no land sales and they borrowed a lot of money and uh for those that they borrowed the money don't get paid and so the question is how are you going to get money into the those places to operate it it's a situation that's more challenging than Japan in 1990 it needs a restructuring in order to be able to do that and then there's also the question is um the property uh values uh property uh the property ownership um um is it respected and um densha ping during his period said it's glorious to be rich is it still glorious to be rich so you have an environment in China which is changing and becoming a more difficult environment so it's the time right now that you would see either is there going to be a restructuring and a getting past that the Innovation yes there's fantastic innovation in terms of Technology there's nothing likely other than in the United States Europe certainly isn't a competitor in that however it's very much government directed can there still be entrepreneurship and that inventiveness these are big big questions for given the environment that you have just painted for us is China still the place to do business is China still the destination for your investment money you've said time and again that you should be invested in China yes I I just want to be clear about the investing in China uh in all countries there are um cycles and ups and downs and so on and in no country should you invest so much money that it becomes a dominant portion of your portfolio you so in China I I still invest in China the question is the size of the investment and how that investment is structured so um I it's been a good experience for us what's the size and what's how are you invested because report suggesting that Bridgewater for instance has been cutting down its exposure to China is Holdings to CH the it's not my place to talk about Bri fine but how do you see how do you see investing in China I I see investing in China as largely um a very attractively priced place that now has a lot of questions regarding the issues that I've just referred to in other words the economic issues then and the political issues regarding property rights and um whether it's still glorious to be rich and how that'll work therefore there's a small percentage of our portfolio which is in China and will stay in China uh you know through this process one big forces shaping the world today is technology AI gen AI you're big on it you're looking at a bot so that people can have access and have conversations with you I mean what do you see the potential and of course if it's technology technology goes wrong your Bot could go Rogue I mean how are you assessing you know the risks as well as the rewards the benefits of AI and gen well for the last 35 years I've written down principles and decision rules literally many thousands of those and I and they have operated as systems decision-making systems and that now I'm very excited about that because i' but you have to train them very well because it's been all so specified over a period of time it is very educational I've then taken a large team of people and gone through asking it questions and dealing with it and training it and the reason is a lot of people ask me questions I'm at a phase in my life where my main objective is to pass along what I've had that it's of benefit to others and we interact such as this kind of conversation and I thought it would be great if there could be I could answer all those questions or we could have discussions how are you doing and all that so that's what I've created it's called digital Ray at least that's a tenative name and we're beta testing it we're going to have several thousand people test it and see how that goes and then we'll move forward but I think it's exciting when you have you need to have computerized decision making working with you because the time of making all those decisions in your head that's obsolete but you know the smart person who thinks ah I can weigh everything in my head they're obsolete nowadays you have to have a partner in terms of those decision-making with the computer Ray final 30 seconds we also know that jeni sucks up energy they say it's much as a small country surely that is a concern oh of of course it's a important concern the real question is its productivity I think a lot of uh attention a lot of the finances have been in the development with the super scalers I think the real opportunities are going to come in terms of the users and how that's going to change productivity in fact probably invent ways that uh technology wouldn't be so much of R we have to live it there great conversation R Delio founder and CIO Mentor at Bridgewater Associates we're coming to you live from the milk in Asia Summit keep it here with us this is bloombar
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