저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 무제한 유동성 공급으로 주식시장이 'liquidity melt up'처럼 급등했다고 진단. 마이너스 금리 가능성이 커졌고(영란은행 총재 발언 인용), 금리 인하·인플레이션 상황에서는 주식과 부동산이 상대적으로 유리하다는 논리. 다만 단기 과열 후 하락 위험을 경고하며 고품질 주식·부동산 분산 보유를 권고.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet Kevin here I wanted to talk to you about a new potential form of stimulus from the Federal Reserve that could not only affect our money but also the entire economy have you ever heard of a market melt up well this morning CNBC contributors on live TV suggested that it's possible we might be seeing is something called a liquidity melt up and that got me thinking so for the past few hours I've been researching this and I wanted to give you my bottom line on the possibility of a melt up the easiest way to picture a liquidity melt up is basically picture this a firefighter whose name is Jerome Powell with a really big hose and a lot of water coming out of the hose the water represents money and the Fed is the firefighter right the fire is the pandemic all of the water going on to the house is money trying to solve the pandemic but it's also flooding the house and so all of a sudden you got a lot of money in a system in the stock market that wasn't there before and then it kind of makes you wonder are you left with a really soggy house after that that is is the economy really going to bounce back as fast as we just dumped water onto this house that was on fire and so this is where I want to talked about the potential for this recent stock market run up being a market melt up and what happens after a melt up are you left with normal are you left with a meltdown let's get into it but first remembs down below deposit $100 with we bowl get two free stocks worth up to $1400 and of course get the life insurance that Lauren and I have by the way Lauren is about to post another vlog as well so make sure to show Lauren some love go subscribe to her channel so let me start by reading what investopedia calls a market melt up a market melt up is a sudden rise in the price of an asset class stocks due to investment by a stampede of investors interested in profiting from the gains in price basically prices have started going up so all of a sudden you get a steam of investors that come in and throw money to those increasing prices as well and that these investments are quote not indicative of fundamentals and quote don't provide a picture of the health of the economy hmm what the golly that actually sounds oddly familiar see we've definitely had a surge in pricing over the last 30 days heck even last 60 days valuations are stretched and it's starting to sound really familiar so how the heck do you survive a market melt up if that happens I mean look it still sounds better than meltdown but I just want to know what happens afterwards okay and you know we gotta ask ourselves is this happening this like increase in pricing because you know the stock market is just looking out 18 months and they're like Oh 18 months everything I'll be ok no worries that millions of people have lost their job and a ton of people are on unemployment no worries we're looking down with like you know a telescope down 18 months down the road is it because corporate tax rates are cut and we're finally seeing that surge in pricing that we expected from the corporate tax cuts back in 2018 or is this really just because Jerome Powell just doesn't turn the hose off and he just keeps watering this house that's on fire aka run in the Mundy printer which remember the money printer goes okay we got that well the money printer as we know got really lubricated in March when the Federal Reserve suddenly dumped interest rates to zero that was a shocker right they did that on a Sunday I made a video that damn like what is happening why is the Fed coming out on a Sunday before their scheduled meeting slicing rates and heck you may have even heard of negative interest rates right right now we're at zero which means the Federal Reserve's interest rates are zero mortgage rates have come down borrowing costs have come down all to kind of incentivize the economy well what about those negative interest rates we know the Fed hasn't been super jazzed about those but let me give you a quick primer in case you don't already remember about negative interest rates let's say you lend me a hundred dollars you're supposed to get paid interest right you lend me a hundred dollars so I get your hundred dollars and I pay you five bucks until that money is due back I pay you five bucks an interest every year that'd be like five percent interest right well now what if I took a hundred dollars from you and instead of me paying you interest you paid me a dollar every year as a thank-you for holding your money well that would be a form of negative interest and the Fed has already told us look there's not a chance in fact both the Fed and the Central Bank of England have numerous times for decades possibly even centuries have said no well the Fed hasn't been around for centuries but the Bank of Atlantis anyway they've numerous times told us nope no negative interest rates not worth it not happening not for us too complicated causes too many problems too many negative implications basically no way negative interest rates are going to happen well at a time where we have Congress kind of stalled and they're stupid sort of wait-and-see approach let's just see how many people are really suffering as if you can't turn on the news and see who's suffering anyway take a look at what the Wall Street Journal just published regarding negative interest rates and this is a little freaky here we go this is a Wall Street Journal article about the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve these people are like buddy-buddies Bank of England does something feds like oh they're doing that maybe we should do that too they hang with each other okay Fed says no negative interest rates Central Bank of England's like okay no negative interest rates well is that now changing take a look at this line right here pushing its policy rate below zero aka negative would represent another milestone in the institution's 326 year history officials have for years said that negative interest rates a warrant an attractive option for the UK economy because banks would be forced to cut lending strangling credit just when it's most needed yet apparently that economic fallout has not actually been proven as clearly and maybe negative interest rates are actually an option because take a look at what this dude here says this dude here is a Governor Andrew Bailey he is the governor of the Bank of England he is the money printer for England okay so when you think more money pretend think this guy for England and take a look at what he just said according to The Wall Street Journal all right popping over here I have changed my position a bit mr.
Bailey told lawmakers last month when asked about sub-zero rates not sub-zero refrigerators like negative rates okay he's talking about negative rates the policy is being looked at again as part of a regular review of the central bank's armory he added that's actually a really big deal in fact that's why the Wall Street Journal titled their article coronavirus prods the UK to consider the once unthinkable negative rates gosh I feel like this is like a Halloween story it is so weird but take a look at this this is where we kind of see the old stuff that we new evidence of the effectiveness of a negative rates is mixed the ECB concluded in a recent study in that blah blah blah blah blah that negative rates boosted bank lending and aided economic growth yet in 2019 the US Treasury Department thought that negative rates in Sweden prompted banks to reduce lending rather than increase it so you kind of have these mixed conclusions here but even with these mixed conclusions the futures markets in both the United States and in England indicate that negative interest rates could be a reality even though there's tough talk or I should say there's been tough talk against them now the Bank of England is softening their tough a tough talk and is the Fed to follow and if negative rates are actually to come what is that going to do to the market melt up we're seeing now is it going to perpetuate the market melt up and how do we prepare ourselves I always like to research this because I I mean you know I'm gonna say it here but selfishly I like to know for my own money in my investments as well I just like to share that with you as well because well I think it's the right thing to do and I appreciate you all so much for watching the channel and supporting and subscribing but here's the thing if this happens and we see negative rates at the Bank of England which now they're actually talking about where the governor is saying you know I've changed my mind well that does also mean that the Federal Reserve in the United States could just change their mind and print even more money and push us into the negative interest rate territory with the flick of a switch or the snap of a finger well look in my opinion it's overly simplified to suggest invest consistently and throw your money into an SP 500 index fund I personally don't love the SP 500 index funds because the SP puts more into companies that support tobacco sales and actually sell cigarettes then they put money into companies like Starbucks or Kraft Heinz and the sp500 does not include Tesla now I'm not upset that the S&P doesn't include Tesla and it puts more money into cigarette companies under covers whatever it's an index fund right it is what it is if I don't like that I could pick from hundreds of other index funds but what I suggest is that we specifically focus our attention at least this is what I'm going to do and don't sue me bro if I'm wrong or you don't like my information but what I'm going to do is I'm specifically going to focus on investing in real estate and some choice sucks and I'm going to bring up what those stocks are in just a moment because I teach you how to invest in real estate in stocks in the programs a link down below but we'll forget that for a moment let's think for a moment what happens when rates go negative and debt becomes really cheap while companies and real estate tend to go up in value because their borrowing costs go down which means their income is up borrowing costs down income up makes sense but that's not super sustainable right but what happens in the short term is rates go down asset prices go up it's like the ocean is filling up with more water because Jerome Powell's standing at the North Pole plugging into the ocean somewhere between the icebergs and is pumping in more water into the economy well that's all great I mean we know that stocks and real estate prices go up but what about inflation when that dreaded eye comes in what happens then well generally when inflation happens central banks will tend to increase interest rates to try to put a lid on inflation and push inflation back down and higher interest rates are bad for stocks and real estate but what's really interesting is guess what happens when inflation occurs well generally when inflation happens you want to be in stocks and real estate you only don't love stocks and real estate when rates are high so in a weird way as rates go down or negative you want to invest in stocks and real estate I'll give you my suggestions in just a moment okay we got that and when inflation happens well you also want to be in assets like stocks or real estate simply things like Bitcoin or gold no to diversify a little bit for some inflation protection or you could vest in like tips right Treasury insured or inflation protected Treasury bonds tips you could look those up TI PS anyway those are things you could invest in to protect against inflation but in a weird way think about it that you're investing in stocks in real estate when rates are going down you're investing in stocks in real estate when inflation goes up the only time you really don't love stocks and real estate is when interest rates go up to combat that inflation but what's that inflation goes back down interest rates tend to go back down so in a weird way you're usually not harmed by literally just buying and holding high-quality real estate and high-quality stocks now let's talk about high quality stocks and real estate quick primer real estate that's high quality starts with good location population growth low poverty and then ideally if you can buy a below market value deal like how I teach you to do in my program so you're not buying like the the best new construction house on the block the most over improved flip ever as long as you're not buying stuff like that and you're buying things that you could buy below market value whether it's multifamily or single-family like I teach you the programs below but we talked about it on the channel here a lot then you're insulating yourself and you're protecting yourself real estate thing that's good we like that what about stocks well I made this very easy for you and I'm gonna go ahead and pull it up to show it to you but this is my m1 Finance account and so in my m1 finance account I created this little index so let's go ahead and pull it up right here this is this is my current in the m1 finance as of whatever today is what is it June 3rd all right this is my m1 Finance account and you could see how I've broken down my stocks into the percentages that I like by going to met Kevin calm slash index met Kevin dot-com slash index and you will see this nice little breakdown but this is my allocation a sort of breakdown of the stocks that I like for a potential melt up and then slow down environment first the safest companies are probably at least in my opinion during a the end of a melt up are going to be companies that Warren Buffett loves right the realvalue ones the ones with big balance sheets and lots of cash JP Morgan bank of America Apple Amex Visa Amazon Costco maybe even throw in some Lowe's and Home Depot them the companies that are probably going to get smacked are the companies that don't make a lot of money yet and are selling for massive multipliers those are like your zoom your wayfarer potentially even your DocuSign okay now then you also have long-term trends that are going to change I don't think the Simon Property Group as much as I invest in them right now as a recovery stock I don't think they're ever going to fully recover I also don't think that the airlines are going to ever fully recover and when I say ever I mean you know in like the next five years because obviously at some point in the future that companies will sell for higher valuations but I don't think they're going to see that same kind of activity that we had in 2019 so in my opinion you know it's probably a good idea to diversify at least until you know tend to maybe 20 different stocks maybe more a lot of advisors recommend you diversify into 30 plus stocks fine but it's not for me because I like to read the earnings reports and I can only read so many reports there's a lot to go through and there's a lot to read each of these reports are like 100 pages long and and I usually read them to go to sleep because they put me to sleep so that limits the amount of time I actually have to go through them all but I do my miss anyway this is kind of the way of allocated things right now so you could see I've got the Tesla the Google the Amazon the Apple Tesla not necessarily being the safest from a balance sheet point of view but it's got that growth that long-run growth that I'm looking for where I've got more safety in my Google Amazon Apple Etsy's a little bit more of a kind of that long-run growth plan along with Netflix red fin Microsoft maybe a little bit more of a steady one so you can see I'm trying to balance a little bit some of the old versus the new tech but of course this is very tech heavy here up at the front and then I get into my more conservative positions and these are kind of the safer ones and because I'm 28 years old I'm not the biggest fan of having a portfolio of only conservative stocks and this is where I'll have my JP Morgan Disney AT&T Simon Property Group target and some others you know peloton is also kind of like a bit of a spec stock I'd say at this point little bit more tech specs so wouldn't necessarily recommend going heavy on a speculum investment of course a lot of people are gonna say in their comments come on Cove and toast lows the most work you lose Leah that's fine you know go for nickel or what not for then so I don't know about you but if at this point you haven't signed up for life insurance or gotten your two free stocks with we Bowl you got to leave a comment down below and let me know why not also check out my programs down below with a coupon code and also let me know what do you think about the market meltdown should we just sell everything and sit around in cash or am i onto something here for the long run let me know what you think and of course buy and hold folks buy and hold we'll see you next time
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