저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 연초 대비 2배 이상 상승했으며, 매출은 전년 대비 증가하고 데이터센터 매출이 급성장 중이다. 매출총이익률도 상승(78.4%)하고 순이익이 62.8% 늘었다. 8/28 실적 발표에서 매출 280억 달러(전년 동기 135억 달러), 매출총이익률 74.8~75.5%를 전망한다. 차세대 Blackwell 출시 일정 지연 여부가 관건이다. 선행 PER 30.59배로 여전히 합리적 밸류에이션으로 본다. 실적 전후로 분할 매수(반반)를 제시한다.
다듬은 글
nvidia's stock price has more than doubled year-to date in 2024 however following its stock split the company's stock price has faced some headwinds the company on August 28th after the markets Clos so investors are curious should they buy Nvidia stock before it announces earnings I'll answer that question in this video I'll let investors know what they should look for from Nvidia coming out from its quarterly earnings release so let's take take a look at those and let's take a look at my answer for if investors should buy Nvidia stoc more than doubled year-to date in 2024 rising from around $50 per share to start the year up to $115 per share as of this recording of course that makes me happy because I've place here in 2024 I've had it on this list all year long since December 29th of last year when I made that video of my top stocks to buy for 2024 in its latest quarterly release Nvidia reported revenue of 26.04% year-over-year phenomenal growth for NVIDIA in the latest quarter its gross profit margin also increased to 78.4% up from 76% in the previous quarter and 64.6% in the same quarter the prior year that's what made nvidia's performance so exceptional is not only Revenue growing by hundreds of percentage points but also profits and cash flow are growing along the lines of Revenue growth other companies in the AI sector have demonstrated growth of similar magnitude perhaps but not with the similar profit and cash flow expansion Nvidia is one of the rare companies right now that's demonstrating this level of top and bottom line growth as you'll notice net income jumped to 14881 billion in the latest quarter that was up by over 62 8% from the same quarter last year now driving this growth for NVIDIA is the data center the AI data center revenue from this segment jumped to 22.56% buildout is coming from large hyperscaler companies like alphabet Microsoft Amazon web services which have all announced tens of billions of dollars in investments in building out AI data centers and in their late latest quarterly earnings releases those companies I highlighted earlier all mentioned that they are likely to continue spending tens of billions of dollars going forward for at least the next couple of years because you can see how that's resulting in soaring Revenue as the company's AI acceler Ator gpus facilitate the growth in that market that's why those companies that I mentioned earlier the hyperscalers are investing in upgrading their data centers is because they're noticing a huge Improvement in innovation in nvidia's gpus that's driving the development of AI data centers that along the lines with the large language models that are creating a use case for artificial intelligence that these hypers ERS cannot turn away because their customers are coming to them and saying they want to buy these Services these large language models these business services that are enhanced with AI and so the market is just growing and growing and growing and this growth is expected to continue throughout the next several years at the very least driving huge improvements in Effectiveness productivity and cost savings and viid saying that these increases reflect higher shipments of the Nvidia Hopper GPU Computing platform which is used for training and influencing with large language models recommendation engines and generative AI applications now the hopper GPU platform is its current generation platform Nvidia announced its next Generation platform the Blackwell technology that is expected to come out later this year but there are some rumors that it might be delayed by several months that's a key item that Nvidia stock investors should pay close attention to when Nvidia announces their quarterly earnings on August 28th you want to look out for that technology and the shipments is it on schedule is there any delays is there anything that investors should be concerned about regarding the Blackwell technology and then the generation after that they already announced the generation after Blackwell which is the r technology that's coming out at the end of next year Nvidia told investors that they're going to come out with Innovation roughly every one year so if the Blackwell technology is delayed and there's difficulty in that roll out does that put a question mark on that one-year rollout schedule was that perhaps too ambitious those are some questions that Nvidia is going to have to answer in the upcoming earnings release and when nvidia's CEO and Nvidia manager ment faces questions from Wall Street analysts in the conference call that typically follows an earnings release Nvidia is forecasting 28 billion in Revenue when they report their quarterly earnings release and gross margins of between 74.8% and 75.5% now if the company does indeed deliver revenue of $28 billion that would be a increase from the same quarter last year when they delivered 13.5 billion in revenue and gross profit margins of 70% are expected to increase to 75% now interestingly in the same quarter last year that they reported on in their Q2 2024 their revenue was up 101% and they're now forecasting Revenue to grow from 13.5 billion to 28 billion so another 100% increase in Revenue not only did they increase Revenue 100% last year another 100% now so double and then double again just to give you a picture of how quickly nvidia's sales are rising and they're Rising with lucrative profit margins last year their gross profit margin was 70% in the second quarter this year they're forecasting gross profit margin above 75% so even more profitable than they were last year this is why nvidia's stock price is performing the way it is the company's delivering tangible evidence of success this isn't driven by hype this isn't driven by enthusiasm this isn't driven by Promises of something five years in the future this is driven by tangible growth in Revenue profits and cash flow right now every quarter the company delivering better and better results so even with nvidia's phenomenal increase in stock price it's still not expensive when measured on a forward price to earnings ratio because the companies delivering on those price increases through fundamental improvements in business like I shared with you growth in Revenue growth in profits growth in cash flow so with the increase in stock price you're not paying a higher valuation because you're getting more as an investor the company's giving you more profits more Revenue more cash flow and so Nvidia stock investors are still paying a reasonable valuation a forward PE of 30.59 for Nvidia stock so to answer the question should investors buy Nvidia stock before it announces earnings or after or should they not buy Nvidia stock at all I would say Nvidia stock is a buy now whether or not you buy it before or after earnings it seems like an equal weighted risk to me nvidia's stock could jump meaningfully following the earnings release if the company gives a reiteration that its technology will continue on that one-year Cadence that the Blackwells on Pace to come out later this year and everything is going according to plan then nvidia's stock price could jump following the earnings release also nvidia's stock price could fall meaningfully if there is any indication of a Slowdown for nvidia's performance because the stock price has already performed so well and the expectations are already so high for NVIDIA so if you want to lower your risk if you're thinking about investing $500 in Nvidia stock you could split that up into two $250 increments buy 250 before earnings and buy $250 after earnings if I was planning to buy Nvidia stock around this earnings release that's how I would do it I would do half and half do half before earnings and half after earnings that way I split my risk into two I split my risk of downside by saving some of my investment for after the earnings release and I reduce my risk of missing out by doing half of my investment before earnings so that would be my advice for those interested in Nvidia stock around earnings
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