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테슬라 주가는 2년간 1000% 이상 올랐지만 최근 일론 머스크의 주식 매도로 약 16% 하락했다. 머스크는 트위터 투표(58:42) 결과에 따라 주식을 매도했고, 세금 납부를 위해 주식을 팔 수밖에 없다고 설명했다. 이 매도는 나스닥·S&P500 대비 테슬라만 크게 떨어지게 만든 시장 영향력 있는 발언이었다. 밸류에이션 측면에서 주가매출비율(P/S)은 2020년 대비 매우 높은 수준이고, 시가총액은 1조 달러를 넘어 폭스바겐 약 1.5개 규모의 손실이 발생했다. 머스크는 콜옵션(행사가 6.24달러)을 행사해 약 200만 주를 매수했고, 그중 약 78.5만 주를 약 1000달러에 매도해 약 7.9억 달러를 벌었다. 보유 주식이 약 1억 7천만 주, 옵션 약 2천만 개가 남아 있어 매도는 이제 시작 단계라는 분석이다. 머스크는 주식을 담보로 대출을 받았으며, 주가 하락 시 추가 매도를 강요받는 악순환 위험이 있다는 점이 공시에서 드러났다. 매도 이유로는 약세 전망, 대출 상환, 트롤링 등 여러 가설이 제시됐다. 마이클 버리는 테슬라가 아마존 닷컴 버블 때처럼 95% 폭락할 수 있다고 주장했으며, 그의 운용사 Scion은 풋옵션 포지션을 보유했으나 이후 포지션은 롱으로 바뀐 것으로 보인다. Damodaran의 DCF 모델은 테슬라 적정가치를 약 570달러로 추정해 현재 주가의 절반 수준이라고 평가했다. 매출 성장률 35%, 영업이익률 16%, 자본비용 6% 등 매우 낙관적 가정을 사용해도 그렇다는 점에서 영상은 테슬라가 고평가되어 있다는 결론을 내린다. 진행자는 머스크, 버리, 다모다란 모두 고평가 쪽에 동의할 것이라고 정리한다.
다듬은 글
tesla's stock price over the last two years has been truly spectacular with returns of over a thousand percent but of course recently there's been a bit of a setback and some people think that's because of actions of its ceo elon musk who's been selling shares but there's also been some very public spats on twitter between elon musk and other people such as michael bury the big short guy so in this video we're going to look at what elon musk is doing and why we'll also look at what michael bury has said and remember that if you do want to support us you can always subscribe to our channel so let's look at the price of tesla to see whether it's overvalued or not in a bit more detail for comparison here i've shown tesla's return over the last two years and i've compared it with qqq which tracks the nasdaq index in the us and spy which is the much broader s p tracker now if you'd have invested a hundred dollars into tesla at the beginning of 2019 that would now be worth over 1 600 whereas if you'd have gone for qq that 100 would have doubled but it still looks like nothing in comparison with tesla and the s p 500 is up by a mere 87 percent now elon musk himself said that the share price was too high in fact this was in the middle of last year when the price was much lower than it is today so this top panel here shows you the share price of tesla going back to 2017 and when elon did that tweet it was only worth 140 now for a growth company sometimes people look at the price to sales ratio in order to gauge how expensive a company is so in this middle panel i've shown you the trailing 12 month revenue for tesla and despite this plateau which lasted about six months you can see that in 2021 that's been rising very rapidly but when we divide one by the other we take the price of the company divided by the sales of the company you can see that at the time of the tweet the price to sales ratio was actually reasonable it was about five times whereas if we look at the price to sales ratio right now it's at very high levels compared to where it's been historically so i think it's fair to say that there's a lot of optimism baked into the price of tesla today particularly when you look at any reasonable valuation metric now if we look at the market capitalization of tesla which is the number of shares which are available to trade multiplied by the share price then you can see that it's absolutely huge it's just breached one trillion dollars so if we express the recent fall in the market cap of tesla in terms of the market cap of volkswagen it's lost about one and a half volkswagens part of the reason for that sell-off is what elon's been doing this is a recent twitter poll which elon ran which was asking whether he should sell some stock they voted 58 to 42 percent to say yes sell your stock and he went on to say that he'd abide by the results of the poll and in fact he did and he went on to say that he doesn't take a cash salary from tesla nor does he receive any kind of bonus from them so the only way he can pay his taxes is by selling some of his stock now that selloff in tesla's stock since he made that tweet was not a result of a broad market sell-off in fact qq and spy have pretty much kept their value since the beginning of november whereas in contrast tesla's stock is down by about 16 so this was definitely a market moving tweet now what elon didn't mention in that tweet is that he's actually been planning to sell stock for some time so this was a youtube interview which he had with his frenemy kara swisher where he revealed many interesting facts about his stock options but also his plans to sell stock and what he said was that he's been very reluctant to sell stocks so far in fact he said that he was the first in and he'll be the last out with tesla and spacex he also pointed out a large number of stock options which are about to expire so those are going to have to be exercised and when you exercise a call option what you have to do is buy the stock which you can then sell into the market at a presumably much higher price and he said when he does sell the stock he'll incur a marginal tax rate of over 50 percent because some people have been complaining that billionaires weren't paying their fair share of taxes and if we look at the timing of the expiry of those options he said that a big bunch of them would expire in q4 next year now we can learn a lot about his option position by looking at the regulatory filings and you can see above me that the price at which he can buy tesla's stock with his options is only six dollars and 24 cents we can also see the date at which these options expire and that in august 2022 and we also know that the number of derivatives which are left now is just over 20 million so what do these options let him do well he can buy tesla's stock at six dollars and 24 cents when it's trading at around a thousand dollars so it's not unreasonable to expect him to exercise those options i mean wouldn't you so if we look at this trade what he did was kind of interesting because he exercised the options on november the 15th and he exercised over two million options that means he bought two million shares for six dollars and 24 cents so that would have cost him just over 13 million dollars now what he could have done was take all two million shares and sell them immediately into the market at a huge price differential of a thousand dollars minus six dollars but instead what he chose to do was only sell about 785 000 of the shares he sold them for about a thousand dollars each although the price fluctuated during the day and he made about 790 million dollars as a result now at the time of that tweet elon owned outright about 170 million stocks of tesla so if you sold 10 of them that would be about 17 million shares so how far along are we in those sales well bloomberg's done a lovely completion bar which shows that we're under half of the way through those sales if we are going to reach 17 million sales of stock so as of november the 15th he has about 166 million stocks remaining which he owns outright and he's still got over 20 million options which he has to exercise before august next year so really this is just the beginning of the sales of stock by elon there's much more to come now before all the sales really kicked off he owned in total about 244 million stocks either directly or indirectly by those call options and that meant he owned about a quarter of the company now after all of these sales he'll still own about a fifth of the company now many people are asking why is he doing it now the options won't expire until august next year so if he thought the share price was going up further he might have been better off from delaying or at least keeping his mouth shut and not tweeting about it well it turned out that we learnt in another regulatory filing that elon's been borrowing against his stock ownership of tesla so investment banks have been lending him money using his holdings in tesla as collateral so why would that have to be mentioned in regulatory filing for shareholders well it actually poses a material risk to the share price of tesla that's because if the share price starts falling the banks could always turn around and say you're going to have to sell more stock in order to pay off some of those loans and that could create a negative spiral where elon sells more stock the share price falls further and the banks insist on him paying back more of the loan now this kind of positive feedback could cause a spiraling down of the share price of tesla so if elon is worried about the share price of tesla falling sharply then that might be a reason why he'd sell some stock and repay those loans that he's made now one of the people he's had a spat with on twitter is bernie sanders who says here that we must demand that the extremely wealthy pay their fair share of taxes and his fairly unpleasant reply was that i keep forgetting that you're still alive bernie but then he added if you want me to sell more stock bernie just say the word now there are various theories as to why elon is selling now one of them is that he's bearish on tesla stock we already saw that he was bearish in 2020 so you'd expect him to be even more bearish now a related theory is to do with those loans which he secured against his tesla holdings so if he is bearish on the stock he probably wants to repay those as soon as possible and the third theory which i think holds some weight is that it's not so much about money as doing some really first-class trolling on twitter now if you're enjoying this video and you want to learn more about investing a great way to do that is by joining our patreon community that way you get to vote on content which is available only to you and you get to talk to other members of the community as we all learn together so if you want to learn more about that just click on the link beside me and in the description beneath me now let's look at what michael bury is doing and saying now he's deactivated his twitter account again but what he said before he did that was that tesla could fall very sharply a previous episode in which michael bury made a lot of money when equity markets fell was in 2000 with a dot-com bubble and he says that amazon fell by 95 in that episode so by analogy tesla could fall by a similar amount and clearly michael bury thinks that elon doesn't need the money from the share sales that's because he's borrowed against 88 million shares in tesla he also sold all of his mansions and he moved to texas so barry doesn't think this is about getting cash he thinks it's about being bearish on tesla and he also refers back to that statement in 2020 when elon said that tesla's too high and that he wasn't kidding now elon who's not shy on twitter replied to barry via this tweet from bloomberg which quoted barry and he said that bury is a broken clock and effectively he's saying that michael bury is a perma bear someone who's always bearish they always think that stocks are going to fall and if you've got a clock that's stuck two minutes to midnight then obviously that's going to be right two times a day so eventually michael bury will be right and stocks will fall but remember most of the time stocks go up so it's not good to be bearish now if you are bearish how would you express that view on tesla well one way is to buy a put option on tesla's stock so in this graph you can see the value of a put option as a share price goes up or down so that's on the x-axis the share price of the stock and when you buy a put option you have to pay a premium up front so on day one of the trade you're initially making a loss and the size of that loss is simply how much you paid for the option so that's called a put option premium now built into the option is the price at which you can sell the stock and then once the share price falls below the strike you start making money one for one on the downside so in order to make money with one of these put options you're betting that the share price is going to fall now michael bury has his own personal hedge fund to manage his money and it's called scion asset management and this is a regulatory filing from cyan asset management which is called a 13f and that was for positions which he had in summer 2021.
now he's not bearish on everything i've only focused on the put options in its portfolio here and you can see there are three of them one is for arc innovation which is the growth fund managed by kathy woods and she certainly pushed back about that position then we've got tlt which is long duration u.s treasuries so here he was betting that interest rates would rise and push down the value of tlt and then finally we've got about a million put options on tesla stock so now let's look at how these probably fared well it's not great you can see that for tesla clearly the puts would have expired worthless so he'd have lost his option premium and probably took a pretty big hit on that position with tlt and ark those have pretty much been flat since may 2021 so he might have made a bit of money on those but certainly not a lot the latest 13f filing from cyan asset management which was published this week shows that there are no puts left in his portfolio at least none that we can see there's still a way of buying puts which won't be visible on this form by the otc market the over-the-counter market in fact he doesn't have any options at all these are all long positions on these stocks so given all this debate what is tesla actually worth well now that tesla has been valued at more than a trillion in terms of market cap aswath damadaran who's the dean of valuation has come up with a new valuation for tesla based on the latest information so this is taken from his video which is available to watch on youtube now damodaran is the master at teaching how to use a discounted cash flow model now of course no model is perfect and the purpose of modeling is not to come up with a fixed price instead it's a way of structuring your thinking about what the fair price should be so what are the inputs to the model well probably the most important input is the revenue growth for tesla how much money is coming through the door and how quickly is that growing year by year and he's assumed that's growing by a very brisk 35 percent the second key input is how much it costs to generate those sales or in other words how many dollars of earnings before interest and tax which is the revenue minus the cost of goods sold are generated for every dollar of revenue and what is assumed for tesla is a very high 16 percent then if tesla's going to be investing a lot which you'd expect with a growth company for every dollar that's invested how much dollar of revenue does it generate and here again he's got a very high investment efficiency of four times and then finally how much does it cost the company to fund itself when he puts all of that together and you can watch his video to see how he does this he comes up with an estimate of about 570 dollars now that's half of the current share price of tesla and what damodaran's assumed is almost like a dream valuation where you've got the best of all possible worlds so if we look at the expected revenues in 2030 he's assumed a capital growth rate which will put it somewhere between toyota and a company that has 20 percent market share damodaran's margin assumption is that it's going to be 16 so bear in mind that the average auto company has a margin of about three percent so this is much closer to a fang stock like microsoft than it is to a car manufacturer like volkswagen the sales to capital ratio is even more competitive than any tech stock or any auto manufacturer the cost of capital is on the highest side for tesla so that's about six percent and that tends to reduce the valuation so i'd say that's the most bearish assumption in this entire estimate and he's also assumed a zero percent probability of failure for tesla through a bankruptcy so as he says in the video i'm telling a really big story for the company so even that only gives him half the current market price of tesla now damodaran's created five fair values for tesla over the years since 2013.
now the story's been evolving over that period of time just as tesla itself has been evolving as a company so initially the estimates were based on a luxury auto company with luxury car company revenues and margins and that suggested that tesla was overpriced during this long period of time then in 2017 his new forecast suggested that it was actually worth much more and that was because it was also a tech company then we had an unfortunate period when tesla looked on shaky ground and elon made a tweet about taking the company private and he also said that the funding was secured and then he lowered his valuation as a result of that saying that the management was unpredictable but that also suggested this stock was undervalued and damodaran bought some stock at that point which then quadrupled in price but then he sold out and in fact if he'd have held on he'd have made much more this is actually a logarithmic plot so i could show you the share price quite clearly so gradually over time he's moved from a luxury brand to something which has mass appeal and that reflects the fact that we all now see tesla model 3s on the roads in most countries so the latest valuation is very high but it's still well below the current market price it's about half so in this table which is taken from damodaran's website he focuses on the two most important variables for valuing tesla so that's the revenue in 2032 is it going to be 200 billion dollars like daimler or is it going to be a trillion dollars which means he has 40 auto market share and almost every car on the road is an ev then if you look at the margin is it 12 or is it 28 which would be truly spectacular so in summary is tesla overvalued i think the answer is yes and that's because you have to make unrealistic assumptions about revenue generation but also margins to come up with a price of around a thousand dollars so i think even elon musk would agree with that based on his own tweets but also his actions and michael bury would of course agree with that now remember if you do want to support us you can join us on patreon or you can just subscribe to our channel and as always thank you for listening
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