저자: PensionCraft채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 제러미 그랜섬은 미국에 단순 버블이 아니라 '슈퍼 버블'(주식·채권·주택 버블 + 원자재 반(半)버블)이 形成되어 있으며, 향후 10년 미국 주식 수익률은 사실상 0에 가깝다고 본다. 그랜섬의 버블 정의와 과거 이력: 그랜섬은 2000년 인터넷 버블과 2006~2007년 미국 주택 버블을 맞춘 것으로 언급된다. 이번에도 여러 자산의 고평가를 지적한다. 밸류에이션 근거: 쉴러의 CAPE(경기조정 PER)가 장기 평균(약 17.3)에서 3시그마 이상 벗어났다. 1929, 2000년에 이어 2021~2022년에 세 번째 3시그마 사건이 나타났다. S&P500이 추세선(연 8.2% 성장) 대비 3시그마 이상 위에 있어, 그랜섬 계산상 적정가치는 약 2500선이며 이는 2021년 말 대비 약 50% 하락을 의미한다. 다만 영상은 하락이 아직 그 수준에 이르지 않았다고 설명. 밈주식 과열: 게임스톱·AMC 등 밈주식 급등(한 달 100배 등)을 '전례 없는 광기'로 규정. 주택: 일본 1980년대 버블(닛케이·부동산 동반 붕괴 후 30년 미회복)을 반면교사로 제시. 미국 집값은 소득 대비 역사적 고점이나 30년 고정금리가 역사적 저점이라 주택 버블은 주식 버블보다 덜 우려. 채권: 미국 채권 시장 고평가, 금리(10년물) 역사적 저점 후 급등. 듀레이션 리스크 회피 권고(단기채·현금으로 헤지). 원자재: 유가 120달러 가능성, 식품·금속 상승이 가계 가처분소득을 압박하는 '소득 효과' 우려. 미국 에너지 물가 전년比 50%, 육류·가금·생선·달걀 12% 상승 사례 언급. 포트폴리오 시사점: 미국 주식 대신 비미국 주식(일본·영국은 상대적으로 덜 고평가), 성장주 대비 가치주 선호, 신흥국(특히 신흥국 가치주) 선호. 진행자 본인은 수익률 조정 밸류에이션(초과 CAPE 수익률 등) 기준으로 그랜섬보다 덜 비관적이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
a very well-known and well-respected investor in the united states jeremy grantham has said that there's not just a bubble in the united states but there's actually a super bubble so in this video we'll look at what he means by that and the evidence that backs up his argument but also what it could mean for your portfolio so let's look at the super bubble in a bit more detail let's start off by looking at who jeremy grantham is here he is in an interview on bloomberg making many of the same points which we'll be discussing in this video he's chief investment strategist of a company called grantham mayo and van ottalu usually known by its initials gmo he was also a co-founder of battery march financial management that's actually a company which was instrumental in creating index funds he's also a big philanthropist he has the carnegie medal of philanthropy and this isn't his first bubble he previously called two massive bubbles the first one was the internet bubble in 2000 2001 and another one was the housing bubble in the united states in 2006 and 2007.
so when jeremy grantham says there's a bubble it's always a good idea to listen to what he says now let's look at what he means by super bubble one of the things that characterizes the us markets right now is that there isn't just one bubble according to grantham there are actually three and a half the first one is the obvious one which is the equity market the second one is the bond market which also has high valuations and the third one is the u.s housing market and then the half bubble is in commodities now a bubble is characterized when valuations go way above their norm so if the norm is measured by the mean the average then we also have to know how far above average we are right now so one of the things grantham uses for that is called standard deviation don't be scared by the name it's just the average difference from the average so if we're multiples of that average difference from the average you know that we're at an extreme level so that average difference is called sigma and if we're multiples of sigma away from the mean then we're in a massive bubble so this is robert schiller's cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio going back to 1871 and what this measures is how much people are willing to pay in dollars for every dollar of profit generated by the s p over the previous decade so it is a backward looking measure of valuation and historically it's been pretty good at picking up bubbles now what i've marked here in blue is the average or the mean of robert schiller's measure which is 17.3 but notice that there are long periods when the cape goes above or below that average and if we measure the average difference from the average that's around 7.1 times as a multiple so if we're one standard deviation above that average that would take us to 24.4 if we're two standard deviations above it would take us to around 32 and three standard deviations would be just under 40.
so you can see there are three periods in the past when cape spike the first one was in 1929 that was just before the huge stock market crash and in fact that was a three sigma event but not using today's standard deviation if we measured standard deviation up to that point in time it was definitely a three sigma event as grantham calls it then the next three sigma event was the dot-com bubble which you can see here that was also correctly called by grantham at the time and then recently cape has crossed the three sigma threshold again and that's the 2021-2022 bubble so when grantham talks about a three sigma event it simply means that we're at a very long way from the average valuation that we've seen historically and calling it three sigma just shows that it's a statistical extreme compared to history so we saw that there are three sigma events historically in the us the first one was 1929 the second was in 2000 and then we've got today but he also points to a fourth example from another market which was japan in the 1980s and we'll see more of that example later on another way of thinking about trends is to look at the trend growth in the s p since say 1990 which is what you can see in this graph below me the actual s p is shown in blue and then the dash red line is the average growth since then assuming an 8.2 percent growth rate now there are long periods when you deviate above that trend and then you get long periods below that trend but what's noticeable is that we always go back to that trend and after a big deviation above it the fall is usually more severe as we saw in 2008 so that's what worries grantham about the current valuation which is that we've deviated well above the trend for several of these valuation measures and that in turn suggests that the correction when it comes will be more severe so according to grantham's calculations recently we were three standard deviations above trend which would have been an s p which was at around 4 500.
in fact at the end of 2021 we were well above three standard deviations above his trend so if we revert to just two standard deviations above trend that would mean a 27 full relative to the end of 2021 and if we return to trend which he says is 2500 for the s p that would mean a 50 full relative to the end of 2021 and we're still nowhere near a fall of that magnitude even though the s p has been wobbling recently so this is what's got everybody's attention it's the scale of the fall to get back to grantham's definition of fair value now to reach these very high levels of valuation takes a lot of euphoria or craziness as grantham calls it and he uses the examples of meme stocks these were stocks which were very popular with some retail investors such as gamestop and amc which you can see in this graph beside me so amc is in blue and gme is in red and they've been scaled such that their value was 100 at the beginning of this period which was at the beginning of 2021.
he says that this meme stock style of investing is something no one has ever seen before happily and hopefully we'll never see it again and what he says makes it crazy is that companies which were worth very little increased in value hugely over a very short period of time so gamestop was up over 100 times in a month an amc similarly went up hugely 40 or 50 times over a very short period and he says these are levels of craziness that we'd not seen even in 1929 when there was a huge rally just before the crash or even in 2000 with companies like pet.com he says that this time around there's more money involved bigger moves involved than there were in those huge bubbles of the past so he thinks a big driver of this super bubble is craziness the second bubble he describes is the housing market in the united states and he uses the analogy of japan in the late 1980s as an example of what not to do so he says whatever you do don't have gloriously overpriced housing markets at the same time that you have a stock market bubble so here you can see the japanese stock market the nikkei 225 since 1955 and at the same time you can see the average residential property prices in japan and that's the blue line notice how both of them peaked in 1990.
the other thing to notice is that they still haven't recovered these are both markets which are in drawdown so if you do get two of these bubbles popping at the same time the recovery period can be very long as it was in japan so this is a 30-year period and those two markets simply haven't recovered in fact i made a whole video about the japanese equity and property bubble if you look at the total value of land in japan in 1991 it was worth about 20 trillion dollars that was at the same time that the entire u.s property market was worth about a fifth of that just four trillion dollars and to put that into context global wealth at the time was only 100 trillion dollars and equity markets were only worth 10 trillion dollars so the japanese property market made up a huge proportion of global wealth in fact the emperor's palace in tokyo at the time was worth as much as all of the real estate in california now if we look at the average price of homes in the united states this is the case schiller index in blue in the top panel you can see that recently it's been rising very sharply and in fact if we look at the euro on your growth in this bottom panel you can see that recently that's been around 20 percent and that's even higher than the growth rate we saw just before the dot-com bubble burst in 2007.
now what really drives house prices is the average level of earnings and if we look at average hourly earnings in the united states that's the blue line you can see beneath me here for a long time it outstripped the growth of house prices which you can see in red so compared to wages houses were becoming cheaper during this period but recently that's reversed so you can see that house prices are shooting up whereas wages aren't so grantham makes the point that house prices are higher compared to your income than they've ever been so if i divide the average house price by the average earnings in the united states i also find that that's at a very high level from the data i've got it looks a little bit cheaper than it was in 2006 but it's still high nonetheless relative to income but grantham's not as worried about the housing bubble as he is about the equity bubble and that's because of very low mortgage rates and that's the blue line you can see beneath me compared to historic levels it remains extremely low and remember in the united states you can lock in a fixed rate for a 30-year period and that's the number you can see here or as grantham puts it the mortgage is the lowest price it's ever been so the mortgage is more underpriced than your house is overpriced as he puts it so if you are willing to keep your house for 30 years and not move maybe you'll choose to rent it out he thinks it's highly likely that you'll do okay the third bubble is bonds and just as with the mortgage rate these are also at historic lows even though recently they've been increasing sharply so he says that shows that u.s bond markets are very expensive and that's true not just in the u.s but across much of the developed world now as a result of that gmo is actually suggesting that you don't take too much duration risk in other words you don't buy bonds which you've got a long time left to run so that means you use short duration funds or cash to hedge your equity position or alternatively other things which act as a hedge when equity markets tank the half bubble is in commodities now here grantham isn't so worried about the markets themselves and that's because most retail investors such as you and i don't get exposure to commodities via the futures market instead what he worries about is what he calls the income effect if the price of oil goes to 120 which he thinks is feasible and the price of food and metals keeps going up it simply squeezes your income the consequence of that is that there's less disposable income for households so for example at the end of 2021 the bureau of labor statistics put out a blog where it looked at some of these price rises now the all items rate which is now actually higher was seven percent of the time but if you look at some components like energy in particular gasoline it was up 50 percent year on year and the price of meats poultry fish and eggs was up over 12 percent over a year so for the average american the terrible combination of factors would be an increase in the cost of living at the same time that your house price falls and at the same time as your equity portfolio drops so there could be a big triple whammy as costs increase and your wealth decreases valuation is something we discuss in the patreon community all the time and it's a great place to learn with like-minded people if you want to join our friendly community and get access to all kinds of goodies like members only videos and also our slack channel then just click on the link beside me and in the description beneath me to learn more finally what does all this mean for your portfolio well according to grantham in the u.s equity market you'll get no returns at all over the next decade to see why that's the case let's look at a couple of graphs here which are actually created by vanguard now the band you can see with the dashed lines here shows you where expected returns would have been based on fundamentals calculated by vanguard now for a long period of time they just kept up at the very higher end of expectations but then since around 2017 or 2018 they've gone far above that expected return why would that be well it was driven largely by euphoria and if the euphoria fades then what we'd expect is that equity markets would normalize and have poor returns as a result whereas if we look at non-us equity markets so that's international equities you can see pretty much the opposite which is for a long period of time they're actually lagging expectations and only recently have they gone into the lower bounds of the expected returns and that suggests that there's much more upside for these non-us equities so if vanguard and grantham are correct then it suggests that you probably do well moving away from us equity over the next decade which equity markets would you use well grantham of course uses a fundamental metric which is valuation so in the graph that you can see beneath me here what i've shown is the cape measure based on valuations at the beginning of 2022 and these percentages are the percentage of time that each market has been cheaper than it was at the beginning of this year so for example the us was cheaper 91 of the time whereas at the cheap end you can see japan's only been cheaper 15 of the time and the uk is roughly in the middle it's been cheaper about 62 percent of the time or as grantham puts it non-us equities are oddly semi-reasonable they're overpriced but they're not too bad and one or two of them like japan and the uk which we just saw are really not materially overpriced and he says that's unusual given how overpriced the united states is right now as well as having a country tilt grantham also suggests that you have a factor tilt so instead of buying growth stocks which you've done really well over the last decade you tilt towards value stocks these are the underpriced stocks which have a low valuation if we look at the forward price to earnings ratio for growth versus value in the united states blue is the forward price to earnings ratio for growth and red is the forward price to earnings ratio for value now by definition value is cheaper than growth always but look at the difference between the two here notice how in 2000 there was a massive dispersion between the pe for value and the pe for growth people were paying far too much for growth at that time and if we look at the valuations now again people are paying too much for growth so people have been saying for a long time now that value is going to be growth but maybe this is it at least grantham certainly thinks so and if we look at regional tilts currently he likes emerging markets despite the fact that china's a big part of emerging markets and there are question marks around the chinese equity market right now but certainly if we look at valuation you can see that emerging markets are currently on a forward price to earnings multiple of around 12 times which is far less than it is for the united states which is at around 20.7 in fact the combination that grantham likes best is looking at value in em which he says is very reasonable right now so there it is that's grantham's view about why we're in a super bubble right now i think personally i'd be a little bit less bearish than he is because i think you have to look at more valuation measures if we do look at ones which are adjusted for yields in other words the level of bond yields then it doesn't look quite as expensive for example schiller's produced the excess cape yield which shows that currently we're not very expensive but also not very cheap so i think that actually the outlook is a bit more rosy than he suggests but many of his points about the superposition of bubbles and the u.s housing market becoming expensive very quickly are very valid and if those do pop at the same time that could be a big problem so remember our offer with patreon you can join our community and you can learn more about that in the link in the description and beside me and as always thank you for listening
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