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결론: 마이클 버리가 대폭락에 베팅했다는 헤드라인은 오해이며, 실제 포트폴리오는 소비재·일본 가치주 등 강세 성향이 강하고 풋옵션 비중은 제한적이다. [헤드라인 검증] '16억 달러 대폭락 베팅' 보도는 풋옵션의 명목가치(노셔널)를 합산한 수치로, 실제 지불액은 약 3천만 달러 수준으로 추정된다. 풋옵션은 100주 단위 계약이라 수치가 부풀려진다. [버리의 과거 성적과 발언] 2008년 금융위기와 닷컴버블 때 풋옵션으로 큰 수익을 냈다. 그러나 2015년 이후 트위터 경고(금융위기 임박, 지수 ETF 버블, 2023년 경기침체 등)는 대부분 빗나갔고, 2020년 폭락 후 대형 랠리를 놓쳤다. [포트폴리오 구성] 주식 비중의 절반가량이 소비재(Expedia 최대 보유)이며 미국 소비 회복에 베팅한 구조다. 에너지, 헬스케어, 산업재, 통신주도 일부 보유. 2023년 2분기에 일본 ETF 4종(광범위 일본 노출, MSCI Japan Value, 일본 소형주)을 신규 매수했다. [중국 투자] 1분기 기준 알리바바·JD닷컴이 포트폴리오의 약 1/5이었고, 4분기 대비 포지션이 2배 이상 증가해 회복 플레이로 수익을 냈을 가능성이 언급됨. [에너지 포지션] 2022년 중반 이후 에너지 가격 폭락에도 유지했고, 최근 가격 상승으로 보유 종목 대부분이 급등해 좋은 판단으로 평가. [풋옵션 해석] QQQ와 SPY 풋옵션은 AI 테마로 밀어올려진 메가캡 기술주가 꺾일 경우를 대비한 헤지 성격. 결론적으로 '롱은 가치주, 숏은 광범위한 시장'의 롱·숏 구조로 해석. [투자 조언] 버리의 포트폴리오를 따라 하지 말고, 대부분의 개인은 인덱스 펀드를 장기 보유하는 것이 바람직하다는 입장. [출연자 전망] 개별 자산의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음. 미국 경기 침체 시 소비재 타격 가능성 및 AI 기술주 조정 시 풋옵션 수익 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
Michael burries in the headlines because people say he's repositioning his portfolio for a big market crash I think that this is a misinterpretation of his position the truth is more nuanced but also more interesting and in this video I look at exactly what he's doing and the reasons which I think underlie his choices this video is sponsored by trading 212 which is a UK commission free investment platform so let's look at Michael burry's positions and the reasons behind them in a bit more detail so this is the kind of headline which I'm talking about and I think these are quite misleading for example it says that Michael burry has bet more than 1.6 billion dollars on a Wall Street Crash as we'll see that's just not true but who is Michael burry and why do we care what he says well he's very wealthy because of his own Investments but also presumably money he made on Wall Street and in 2000 he set up his own fund to manage his own money this is called cyan Capital but in fact 2008 wasn't his only good call he made another one with a.com bubble where stock prices fell he bettered that markets would fall and he made lots of money in that sell-off as well but as we'll see his track record isn't that great if you just go by what he says and another reason why people pay a lot of attention to Michael burry is that he was the star of the film The Big Short and here you can see he's being played by Christian Bale how do we know what he's buying and selling well because he runs so much money in Sign capital he has to file things with the Security and Exchange Commission something called a 13f now these are in perfect records because they're only filed every quarter they're backward looking so they have to be filed within 45 days of the end of the calendar quarter and they don't show everything they only show us listed stocks American depository receipts ETFs and some derivatives so if there are non-us listings cache positions or just straight short positions we're not going to see those so in case you were wondering what short means let's just quickly delve into how he makes money when stock markets fall so if we go to the first quarter of 2023 say May the 17th and let's say that the NASDAQ tracker QQQ is trading at about 330 dollars if you think the price of that index is going to go up when you could just buy the ETF for 331 dollars but how can you make money from it if you think it's going to go down well in that case you can do something called buying a put option that gives you the right to sell QQQ at a price that you choose now of course if you choose to sell it at a high price well you have to pay a lot for that usually people will choose this so-called strike price to be below the current market get price let's say we choose something twenty percent below so we buy a put option that gives us the right to sell at two hundred and sixty five dollars that means that if the price of the NASDAQ Falls below that say to 250 dollars then we can buy QQQ in the Market at 250 we have the right to sell that to somebody for 265 dollars and we've made fifteen dollars profit so you make money with these put options one for one if it goes below the strike price so this allowed Michael burry to make lots of money in these falling markets in 2000 and 2008 by having these put options so these come back into the story in just a moment so now let's look at his big short if we plot the total amount outstanding in his portfolio in other words we just add up the value of all his positions quarter by quarter you can see that gradually it started to increase from q1 of 2022 you and it was a pure stock portfolio there weren't any derivatives visible but then in Q2 of 2023 we got this massive increase in the value of the portfolio dominated by two huge positions if we break it down by sector and also type of investment you can see how those two positions dominate the put options in his portfolio is shown here in green there's the QQQ put option and there's also put option on the S P 500 tracker spy this is what the filing looks like itself on the sec's website and you can see those two put options highlighted here in red now the reason why those positions look absolutely massive is that each of those put options gives you a right to sell 100 shares so if you have 20 000 put options as Michael burry does then that looks like two million shares 2 million times the value of QQQ or spy gives you these massive of numbers that we saw in those headlines which add up to 1.6 billion but how much of the options actually worth well the total value of the stocks in the portfolio ignoring the options is just over a hundred million dollars and the notional of the derivatives is 1.6 billion but that's not what he paid because of the huge amount of Leverage in options you pay a small amount today to control a very large position in the underlying asset given the 60 times plus leverage which he likely had this means that he probably paid just tens of millions one estimate is that he paid about 30 million dollars for the overall positions now the precise numbers are completely unknowable because the 13f doesn't have the strike of the options or the expiry date of the options the longer the expiry the greater the price of the options and the closer the put options strike to the current market value the greater the price you'll pay up front but using reason assumptions of when your expiries and twenty percent downside protection this is how we came up with about 30 million dollars but this is much less than the 1.6 billion which is quoted in many headlines now many of the stocks which we're discussing today trade on U.S exchanges and are not available on some UK platforms but trading 212 which is kindly sponsoring today's video allows you to trade those stocks directly now it's a platform I've been using for some time here in the UK I like it because it's very low fee but it's also very Innovative so let's say that you want access to those U.S stocks if you've got a trading 212 real money account then you can trade many U.S stocks such as this Berkshire Hathaway class b share so if you want a slice of Warren Buffett's portfolio management you can trade that using trading 212.
now one of the things you can do is convert your money from Sterling in into another currency like Euros or dollars and keep it in your account in that currency this means you can separate the decision about when you convert your money and when you buy stocks so by converting it when there's a favorable exchange rate and then trading around in that currency without having to convert it back you could potentially increase your returns so just to demonstrate this I put 10 pounds into my trading 212 real money account and if I wanted to convert that into US dollars I could do that very easily you can see the fee here would be about two cents for the conversion then if I chose to sell my us shares I wouldn't have to convert it back into pounds straight away I could go off and buy other us shares in US dollars so this way you can save on your FX fee if you are someone who does trade on other exchanges now as a viewer of pensioncraft you get a special offer from Trading 212 where you can claim a stock worth up to 100 pounds in order to claim that you need to create a new trading 212 account you have to fund it with at least one pound and verify the account and then use the promo code which is my first name r-a-m-i-n to really understand the thinking behind Michael Barry's trades I think it's helpful to look at the sector composition of his portfolio here that is when we've stripped out those two option positions just looking at the single stocks which he holds now the kind of dark blue color here is the consumer discretionary sector and that certainly dominates his portfolio at the moment now is this a bearish position far from it consumer discretionary remember is the kind of stuff that you don't really need it's luxury goods cars voluntary things which you can spend your money on now if U.S consumers are coming out of a recession and have money to spend this second would benefit so clearly Michael burry is pretty bullish on the U.S economy right now despite all of the stuff he says in his Twitter account Expedia group is currently the biggest holding which he has and frankly if the US goes into a recession it's unlikely many people will be booking holidays so the largest sector allocation is for Consumer discretionary that makes up about half of his portfolio and then we've got the energy position which is held for a while now which we'll dig into later but also some defensive stocks in the form of Health Care we've also got some Industrials and we've got some telecom stocks then we've got a new position for Q2 which is in Japanese stocks so let's dig into the consumer discretionary sector Holdings and you can see those are faring pretty well they're not soaring upwards like the Magnificent eight stocks such as Nvidia but they're steadily increasing including what was then his biggest holding which was XP media not all of his stocks are doing well for example curate is doing pretty badly and I heart media is too but still he's chosen some pretty good stocks here in terms of performance now it's kind of interesting that he's taken a long position on Japan and he's done so via exchange traded funds now I made a whole video about why Japan is currently popular maybe he watched that video this is one I made for trading 212 on their Channel on YouTube and in fact he didn't just buy one ETF he bought four of them two of them give broad exposure to Japan and two of them are kind of interesting he's gone for msci Japan value so these are undervalued stocks in Japan and it's also gone for small cap Japan exposure what's interesting about Japan's Market is that many of its largest stocks are exporters so these really feed on global growth and particularly growth in the countries to which Japan exports such as China and the us but if you go for Japan's small caps that's much more of a domestic market so that's a play on Japan's domestic economy which presumably he thinks is going to perform well that hasn't panned out yet that's the most poorly performing ETF you chose but it's an interesting position nonetheless his q1 filing showed that he had a very large position in China which was focused in just two stocks jd.com and Alibaba group that made up a fifth of his portfolio however his Q2 filing shows neither of those two stocks they have been pretty choppy if you look at the share price you can see that it's been very much up and down we don't know the precise timing of his trades but what we do know is that in Q4 Alibaba for example his position was about 4.4 million and by the time we got to q1 which is the previous quarter that had more than doubled as had jd.com it went from 4.2 million up to just under 11 million dollars so presumably probably he made a pretty chunky profit on those two recovery plays in China an ongoing theme in his portfolio is for energy and it's surprising he's stuck with that given the crash in Energy prices since middle of 2022 for example presumably that's because he thinks there's going to be a Resurgence in Energy prices and we have seen them bump up recently and if we look at the stock prices of his positions you can see that almost all of them are rising pretty sharply at the moment so that was a pretty good call now there's a big butt that you have to consider when looking at his portfolio which is his track record and there's a big difference between what Michael Barry says and what Michael Barry does so if we look at his terrible pronouncements on Twitter and remember His Twitter handle is Cassandra which in mythology was someone who's given the gift to prophecy but was also doomed never to be believed the accuracy since 2015 has been pretty appalling so in 2015 he said a crash was coming in a few months well it didn't really materialize then in 2017 he said there'd be a Global Financial meltdown that didn't happen either in 2019 he said there was a bubble in index ETFs which he's just been buying in Japan remember in 2020 he revealed his massive bearish bets in markets remember what happened after that after the big crash was a huge rally then in 2021 he said there's a market bubble crash coming in 2023 there was a massive recession coming so you should sell and we've just seen his bearish positions which aren't really very bearish at all in his Q2 filing so I think it would be unfortunate if you'd have followed all of his terrible warnings because you'd have missed out on a huge rally in the United States over the last decade maybe you should think about moving to China because they're at least some of his predictions would have been more accurate for example the big crash in 2020 one markets in China were down around 42 percent for that crash so I think what you should try and do is separate what Michael Berry says from what Michael Barry does those are two very different things he's come up with these very bearish pronouncements on Twitter or X as it's now called but in fact his portfolio is pretty bullish if you look at the sector composition and I think also the put options that he's got in his portfolio are really just going to benefit if the huge narrative around AI in the United States collapses that's because the QQQ the NASDAQ is very much driven by those Mega cap 8 tech stocks whose share prices have been pushed Sky High by the AI narrative now if their profits fail to deliver on that promise then it's likely those stocks will snap back and who knows it could push his put options into the money so really what he has is a long short position Edition where he's long those value stocks which he's chosen very carefully and he's short the broad market so that's his real position and I think it pays to delve into it in more detail than you get from just headlines more broadly though I'd say don't try and copy other people it doesn't usually make sense use their portfolio to inspire what you do in your portfolio but what a billionaire does with his portfolio is almost certainly not relevant to what you do in yours for most people it's best simply to buy an index fund buy it hold it for a long period of time and just forget about it don't try and be Michael burry or Warren Buffett now don't forget our offer from Trading 212 if you want access to a stock worth up to 100 pounds you can do that by going to trading 212 open a new account fund it verify it and use my name as a promo code uh a-m-i-n and as always thank you for listening
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