저자: Kevin · 외국인
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케빈은 자신이 보유한 7개 종목(GoEV/캔오, XL Fleet, 펠로톤, 타투드셰프, 시프트, 퀀텀스케이프, 마이크로비전)을 소개한다. 캔오는 월 단위 차량 구독 모델과 NVIDIA 자율주행 파트너십을 근거로 제시하고, XL Fleet은 고객사 재구매 부진과 회수기간 8년 이상을 들어 이미 매도했다고 밝힌다. 펠로톤은 프리코어 인수, 웹사이트 트래픽 증가, 헬스장 회원권의 해지 저항성을 근거로 3배 가능성을 말한다. 타투드셰프, 시프트, 퀀텀스케이프, 마이크로비전은 각각 성장성·저평가·기술 잠재력을 근거로 긍정적으로 언급한다. 과거 수익 실적과 보유 규모를 강조하며 개인 의견임을 명시한다.
다듬은 글
seven stocks that i have over 700 000 invested in i'm going to break down exactly what these stocks are and we'll do an overview of each one let's get right into them after i mentioned that if you want my insights to help you build wealth for the long term consider joining me on the private live streams that i hold every day the market is open and of course the courses below on building your wealth use the holiday coupon code down below it expires in four days and email me if you want a bundle coupon code real estate youtube stocks and the psychology of money all linked down below all right first up canoe stock now this one trades under ticker symbol go ev anyway this is a company that made it onto jay leno's garage and merged today with hennessy that used to be ticker symbol hcac and now it's go ev the company promises to basically let people rent out their customizable box style cars that sit on a skateboard interchangeable style frame which will hold your battery so in other words think of it as kind of like a car and then you can really customize what kind of box you want to put on top oh you want an amazon delivery van no problem we got that for you you want something with a bench in the back for a family no problem we got that for you and the interesting thing about this company is something that actually initially made me somewhat skeptical they're going to rent out their cars on a month-to-month basis with no contract just like you could rent out an apartment month to month kind of when i first heard this it bothered me a lot i thought about wait like why would people rent a car that doesn't make sense like you could go to hertz and rent a car you could uber and not even have to have a car you could honestly robo taxi probably in a few years when these things start hitting the road and then i got to thinking no maybe the month-to-month model could actually be genius especially when you pair it with an oversimplified design see you're now getting people into their own autonomous vehicles that could probably be introduced into a robo-taxi network as well that people can rent on a month-to-month basis so they could really try it before they buy it in essence and they never actually have to buy it which is kind of cool they're electric vehicles which means people are getting into the vehicles without being concerned that the battery's going to fail or some sort of maintenance issue because well after all they're just leasing it on a month-to-month basis essentially they get canceled at any point and then there's no commitment i don't even think there's a down payment and i'm not certain about that i guess we'll see when the pricing comes out but really it's kind of like really almost renting a car versus even having a lease contract or a purchase contract i personally like owning things but in today's culture and society especially since this is going to start out in la i kind of think this could be an interesting play that might target more of that millennial minimalistic culture and don't get me wrong i was still skeptical because i know the management is like oh yeah we're going to target millennials and i'm like well i mean i'm a millennial and i i still kind of want my own car you know i mean i get it if i rent it month to month it is my car but it is it really anyway i was skeptical did a little bit of research and apparently car subscription services like this have been tried before and on average people tend to rent these things for 16 to 17 months not specifically at this company but in general with car subscription services so to me i thought that's actually not bad you know that gives people a lot of flexibility it gets people over sort of the ev fear like hey just try it out you don't like it after 30 days forget about it just rent it for 30 days then you know maybe you get in at a cheaper price than if you were renting a day-to-day or probably ubering and it'd probably be i would imagine a little bit more expensive than if you bought it or leased it but then again they'd have to be competitive as well so we'll see how that works and also since they're evs they've got less parts that actually have to be maintained which could help lead to more profitability for the company in the future so this company really started peaking my interest especially since you've got that selling pitch to customers of freedom people love freedom i know that because when i try to tell people to buy a house they're like i don't want to be tied down by a 30-year mortgage and i'm like ah it's the best investment you can make is real estate but hey whatever topic for a different video i suppose you can watch the videos on my channel just type in meet kevin retire early watch those videos anyway i mean think about it you're really now giving people cars without them inheriting depreciation or the hassle of selling your trade-ins which might not be so good for shift stock but you know we'll talk about that one later but anyway worst case scenario if the company's subscription model doesn't work out they could always just switch to selling the cars the company is partnering with nvidia for their self-driving technology and i currently invested 70 500 into this company so hey fingers crossed it's a spec so we've really only got pro forma financials we're not going to do a deep dive on pro forma financials in this video so instead let's go on over to that's my transition for saying next company and the next company is excel fleet which makes you think it's extra large i don't know what it stands for but excel fleet anyway so today this company merged with the spac pic and so now this company trades under ticker symbol xl and xl fleet to me is kind of like the hylion except where hylion tries to make semi trucks hybrids which i've already done a deep dive on highly on you can see that video just type into youtube meet kevin highland xl fleet is more of like the hybrid company trying to do the same thing except not to semi trucks but to ambulances ford transits ford trucks and kind of thing like medium duty instead of uh semi trucks like u-hauls right anyway basically this company takes regular gas trucks and retrofits them with a hybrid system and they suggest that they save you mileage so you get a return on your investment by doing this as as a company now medium mid-sized cars and trucks you know they they don't do the same thing that semi-trucks do semi-trucks they're on the road usually more hours than mid-sized cars are and you get more miles on them so sometimes those hybrid and efficiency plays can be better suited for well distance hauling like semi trucks but anyway okay so the company's got some sales and uh you know when i did a little bit more deep diving i um i started unveiling a few issues so the company boasts on its you know website and its blog and its social media that it sold products to big names like coca-cola dhl safelite fedex even the seattle fire department and you know when i hear about that i'm like oh wow that's that's great and the way they sort of present it to you implies that these are all recent customers but unfortunately what they don't tell you is the following they wrote this down fedex's last order with them was apparently in 2013 when they bought 10 systems from excel fleet uh and then five years later instead of buying from excel fleet again fedex bought electric trucks from a different company called fdg dhl was a customer and then they bought electric trucks from workhorse tyson krupp the elevator company bought some systems from excel fleet in 2014.
seattle fire bought 10 systems in 2016. coca-cola bought 10 systems between 2010 and 2013 but all these companies at least as far as i can tell haven't been buying from excel fleet since then so from what i could tell and i could be wrong here but when you got companies like fedex and dhl definitely buying excel fleet products and then buying other people's stuff thereafter it's a little bit of a a diss to excel fleet okay like if i were excellent i'd be like how could you but it might also be a signal that maybe your product just wasn't anyway that made me a little nervous so i did a little bit more research and i know that jim cramer pumped them up and uh i bought a little bit of shares of the company initially and then i did some more research i put in about 17 000 into the company which is is a lot of money don't get me wrong but relative to some of my other investments in this video it's the smallest investment and uh after doing my further due diligence which i should have completed beforehand but you know sometimes you do your initial research and then you put in a little bit of money and then you do more research and you could always sell right that's what happened in this scenario okay so we're not gonna complain about the timing made a few thousand bucks sold out of this position i rarely rarely sell but excel fleet if you see that ticker symbol xl it's just my take on it okay but it got worse see i did a little calculation if a pickup truck is retrofitted with an xl uh fleet hybrid system and let's say that pickup truck gets 25 miles to the gallon and they drive 200 miles per day the pickup truck would then be spending about 24 dollars of money on gas per day it's about three dollars per gallon and 25 miles to the gallon uh and at 220 working days per year you know with vacation and sick time for workers and stuff usually you're working around 220 to 240 days per year that works out to about 5 280 in gas assuming it drives 200 miles a day well when excel fleets did a study of their partnership with coke xl fleet boasted that they saved about 20 on fuel economy for coke okay so 20 using their number they're 20 20 times 50 to 80 in gas for a pickup for a year works out to saving about a thousand fifty six bucks a year okay i mean that's good like you're making money right but wait a minute the system costs you nine thousand dollars so it would take you over eight years just to pay back the system and the average length of ownership for a car is usually six to seven years a commercial car who knows could could potentially be shorter or pick up truck we'll see it depends i guess how much is driven but anyway to me that was a little bit of the uh nail in the coffin so uh let's just say uh xlfleet hey thanks for the few grand i've moved on all right next stock this is a high flying one peloton yesterday peloton stated that they would acquire precor which is a gym equipment manufacturer peloton's website and data by the way has been skyrocketing even when compared to nordic track who is actively trying to compete with peloton peloton's website data over the last six months is up 43 compared to nordictrack which is only up about 16 the bounce rate at nordic track is 48 which means basically 50 of people are bouncing out of their website at the same time peloton's bounce rate is only 30 which is a little less than one-third also people spend about one minute longer on peloton's website than they do on nordictrack's website which might help explain why peloton has a really long wait time to get the peloton bikes or treadmills these are backordered months to the point where i even heard some people had december delivery dates that got cancelled and delayed till february but now look paluton picked up pro pre-course so what does that mean well pre-core acquisition could actually be priceless see they've got a massive facility to manufacture high quality gym equipment in fact if you just google pre-core gym equipment you'll see that it's it's not the cheesy kind of gym equipment it's that that higher quality equipment that you'd see at maybe the nicer hotels or like when you go into the gym at a hotel it's like oh they got all the nice new stuff yeah pre-core does a lot of that stuff really nice aligns with peloton's brand if anything peloton got a deal they bought these for just about 420 million dollars and quite frankly the company's got more value pre-core has more value than 420 million in it so i feel like peloton got a sick deal here because pre-core is having trouble selling product to hotels and peloton instead is like let's go bottom feeding peloton's got like 2 in cash so okay what 20 of their cash got burned on getting massive factory capabilities and not only that but now they also have the ability in theory to expand into get this peloton weight machines peloton ellipticals peloton you know stair climbers precor does all that stuff peloton doesn't have to reinvent the wheel they could literally buy a company that makes the wheel slap the brand on it and boom peloton subscription service me up anyway in terms of peloton and their staying power the interesting thing about peloton is peloton wins from something very fascinating known as the stickiness of gym membership uh and they also win from this pandemic but not just because it's a stay-at-home play and i'm to explain the stickiness of gym membership thing in a moment but see the the cool thing about peloton is palestine used to sell and they still do in malls that have reopened but they used to sell almost exclusively in person in malls with commissioned sales people that would take like 25 cuts on the profits on these machines because of the pandemic peloton has gone so almost sustainably viral when people think of gym equipment they think of peloton and now the sudden people are buying this equipment through the website without peloton having to pay out a commission which sucks for the sales people but leads to significantly more profit at peloton this is actually one of the reasons i started buying peloton at 29 a share and i've been mentioning it on this channel i've mentioned it in my course peloton's always been in my 1333 it's been in my top list of uh stocks as well since the since march you can actually go to medkevin.com top and you'll probably still see my older top pie redfin etsy uh tesla's in there you could look at those great stocks some of my largest holdings uh but uh see not only does peloton benefit from this but they also benefit from something known as the stickiness of gym memberships and this is really evil too like they've got a couple really evil things going on here uh beyond just being a stay-at-home play peloton's stickiness of gym membership aspect is um well let's put it this way more than half of all americans have a or with a gym membership don't go to the gym so you've got about 50 million americans who have a gym membership some estimates say 60 million americans and only half of them are actually going to the gym you get more than half of the people not going to the gym and why do you think that is like seriously think to yourself why would somebody have a gym membership and not go like why don't you just cancel the subscription well here's the psychological trap and if you go to the gym all the time this isn't gonna make sense this is gonna sound like blasphemy okay but you gotta think about the people who don't go to the gym all the time like the people who come in january for a couple weeks and then they'll come the rest of the year okay the fact is when you have a subscription to a gym and you don't go you feel guilty about not going to the gym you know you've got the gym subscription you know you've got the peloton subscription but you keep telling yourself that you're gonna go that soon you'll be back so you keep paying the subscription because guess what happens if you cancel the subscription you subconsciously failed some people just blatantly feel like they failed it's like cancelling yourself canceling your health and this is why peloton has a relatively low churn rate they've got a churn rate on a monthly basis about 0.9 percent their average over the last 12 months has been a retention rate of 94 and even if their churn rate was 10 to 15 percent this company is growing subscribers at an insane base they have literally doubled their revenues in 18 19 and 20 and probably will do it again in 2021 their growth will slow by 2022 probably down to like 30 percent instead of doubling which yeah they're going to slow down after the pandemic but we'll see if they continue to introduce new product lines with this pre-core acquisition this could be a 3x stock and don't get me wrong the other companies i'm investing in as well canoe could be a 3x stock uh xl could 3x but i don't want to be a part of it canoe paluton much more interested these these are companies that along with the other ones i'm about to mention these are real potential 3x stocks here even at where peloton is now this acquisition game changer for peloton especially considering the other facts so we're not doing a deep dive obviously on on these in this video but let's get to the next uh three exer it's gonna be tattooed chef tattooed chef oh tattooed chef oh tattooed chef this is a a company that i pitched in uh well to course members and then a couple days later we did a video on the channel on it this is just my holding in weeble here uh this is about half of my holding in tattooed chef so you can see i bought it for 1875 and 1863.
it's uh at 25.24 right now so up about 35 percent so uh it's been a it's been a pretty good trade so far i plan to hold this one not gonna sell out uh i rarely rarely do i sell stocks when i buy them yeah and and i always i generally always make a video on even on the public channel when i sell stocks because it's it's so freaking rare that i sell a stock uh i just like buying and holding it's bad anyway here's a 19 stock well it was a 19 stock uh here's now a 25 stock that uh in my opinion could easily go to 60 dollars that is triple from when i first recommended it uh the best thing that i could recommend to you and i'm not sponsored here the only thing that's really sponsored on in my videos is you actually using that platform like weeble to get yourself four free stocks when you deposit a hundred dollars or getting life insurance in the link down below which you can get in as little as five minutes without talking to anyone anyway those things are sponsored tattoo chef not sponsored it'd be kind of cool if they want to sponsor me i'll take it but uh order some of their food okay just an idea like i i personally hate the idea of plant-based pepperoni salami or cauliflower burgers but let's just say when i tried some of their food i was pleasantly blown away like usually i gag at the thought of like is this plant-based and then i'm like like my throat's just sealing up maybe i just really enjoy meat sorry if you don't like me uh but i know that plant-based meat is way healthier so let's just say tattooed chef might might make me a believer so far i'm very excited uh this stock by the way has about a 19 short position against it which uh that's a good chunk you know lemonade had a short squeeze not too long ago lemonade's a stock that i've been pitching for three months on this channel and to course members and that went from 48 to now it's 114 dollars oh my gosh i got some uh you can go over to robinhood here we got some lemonade calls here these are my total returns on lemonade calls here's one that's 53k 43k on lemonade there's another 43.7 k geez the lemonade calls the only loser on this picture here is dominos the hell dominoes anywho uh yeah so tattoo chef love it lemonade a little pricey right now you know i'm not gonna sell any lemonade i got some longer term calls here uh 2023 calls on lemonade we'll just let those ride for now but on tattoo chef i did invest around uh 180 to 200 000 depending on how you know i gotta add this all up but anyway uh i showed you the weeble the other ones are the other shares of tattoo chef that i have are in m1 finance and jp and they've got about a similar cost basis so that's my position in tattooed i don't know that i'm going to keep expanding that position i i think i can kind of let this one run if it dips though if i see tattooed chef go down to like 23 i'll probably add another 50 or something like that we'll see all right next up is shift shift is a used car company focused on e-commerce i did a deep dive on this one so also not going to go crazy deep here but let's give you a little overview here this is a company that delivered 2 946 used car e-commerce sales which the e-commerce business is expected to 10x over this next decade here probably even sooner they delivered sales along expectations their revenue was higher than expectations uh you know everything was good until their advertising expenses in the last quarter they really shocked wall street with uh unusually high advertising expenses the management says this was because of covid but it led the stock to sell off i bought after the sell-off i thought okay yeah like this could be a good entry point and like the high sevens is is where i bought in mid to high sevens i bought in over a few days uh anyway management thinks their advertising will actually catapult them forward substantially and the best way to look at this is just think about like a vroom or carvana these are shifts competitors they advertise like crazy and they're growing market share because of that and shift really operates in like one-sixth as many markets as carvana and it's sort of the baby of the group but it's also the cheapest on a valuation basis and a multiple basis it's it's very inexpensive bloomberg even says they have like a 0.02 chance of default like next to nothing so uh to me this is a 4x stock once uh and not not like 4x like international currencies not like 4x like a four banger uh as of uh november 13th for example btig an investment group says they've been tracking shift's inventory movement and things are moving along at a quote strong clip anyway the problem with this company is they've got some downward pressure from lockups after their spac merger so you know we've got some short-term risk at this company as original investors might just flock to the next big thing like the next canoe or quantum scape or whatever uh but uh you know you know i i think that'll end up being a regret especially since we're going to see this e-commerce used car sales business explode probably even over the next five years it'll 10x and uh to me you know there's no reason why in the used car space somebody would not want to price shop carvana especially when carvana openly says that they're profiting over 4500 per car on average probably shouldn't go on jim cramer's mad money show and brag about that makes people want to price shop anyway briefly want to touch on quantum scape and microvision these are the next two we're going to touch on ooh fix or fix or fix or bring contractors you got to get those redfin notifications folks might have a real estate deal here anyway quantum escape oh which by the way if you want to find real estate it's a great way to basically put yourself in front of sellers for a very inexpensive price by purposefully targeting homes that look distressed and trying to get those properties before they hit the market anyway quantum scape is a recent stack merger with the former former tesla co-founder uh he's running this company it's a battery tech company and they promise to have found a breakthrough in solid-state battery technology with batteries that can be charged up to 80 within 15 minutes which is insane and over and basically last over 250 000 miles of drive capability without battery degradation that means these batteries could easily last over two million miles before actually breaking however the problem is this company only has a lab sample of their product thus far they don't actually have a real product that does make me nervous i have a little bit of money at play with this company uh i shouldn't say a little bit money i'm sorry uh relative to my portfolio this is a very it's a small slice but it's a good chunk of change i have 30 000 invested in this company it's relative to portfolio it's very small because it's speculative uh always look at percentage base anyway uh quantum escape is one that continues to run it kind of makes me feel like it's going to bubble crash sometime soon which honestly i wouldn't mind because i kind of would like to buy this thing a little cheaper anywho the next one but quantum is is one that could 3x if their battery technology continues to prove itself we'll see then we have micro vision micro vision is a lidar play it is the cheapest out of the velodyne and luminaire lidar stocks with apple's recent announcement of electric vehicle ambitions coming in 2024 microvision shot up and mostly stayed up despite a short seller coming out to rag on them uh and uh quite frankly the fact is you know microvision and quantum scape are both speculative companies uh microvision and quantum scape are actually no better than nano dimension see the problem is micro vision and quantum escape they don't actually have a real product yet so uh all of these three companies here i guess towards the end of the video they're they're a little bit more on the speculative side i do have money invested in quantum scape and microvision uh mviz and qs i do not have money invested in nano dimension i have a full breakdown video on nano dimension great video you should watch that you get all my thoughts on nano dimension just type it into youtube me kevin nano dimension a really great company you know obviously uh uh looking back at the stock price now it's like oh i should have invested when i made the video and that's okay you know i think i gave a very uh fair and balanced explanation of my thoughts on the company and i see the potential for for nano dimension i think it's a great company i don't i don't regret not investing in nano though because i i'm very concerned that we don't actually have an end user yet for skin adhered circuitry or multi-layered printed circuit boards made with additive technology and if none of that just made sense watch the nano dimension video but i i don't see an end user for that yet whereas with micro vision micro vision could be bought by apple or really any ev company for their lidar technology uh they're dirt cheap relative to like even the valuation and neo i mean you could take like 140th of neo break that off and boom you'd buy microvision uh so uh yeah a relatively cheap company here i mean this is like penny stock level almost i mean they just graduated from penny stock and uh then you've got quantum which also no product yet but the uses for that battery technology endless in fact honestly for nano dimension to succeed with especially their like skin adhered circuitry you need better battery technology so it's almost like quantum has to succeed for nano to succeed not really but i think you know what i mean anyway i've got about 203 000 invested uh in shift and about 30 to 50 of each of these kind of smaller ones with the exception of nano all in all out of all the stocks i mentioned here i'm in about 700k and uh probably could break that down a little bit cleaner but i think you got my overview here and uh yeah hopefully you appreciated this and if you did consider sharing it it's just my perspectives and if you lose money well don't sue me bro and we'll see in the next video instead just check out the courses down below and email me for the bundle coupon code it'll make you feel better you'll get a discount i'm a good discount which expires at the end of the day on christmas so yeah anyway thanks for watching folks we'll see in the next video
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