저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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결론: 나스닥은 약세장에 진입했고 캐시 우드는 연준의 긴축이 과도하다고 보며 중간선거 이후 정책 변화(공화당 우위)로 헬스케어·원격진료 쪽 기대를 드러냄. 시장 상황: 나스닥은 고점 대비 20% 이상 하락해 약세장이며, 우드의 ARK 이노베이션 ETF는 연초 이후 53% 이상 하락. 자산 규모도 2021년 12월 330.8억 달러에서 2022년 1분기 말 239.5억 달러로 축소. 연준 긴축: 연방기금금리 상단 기준 0.25%에서 1%로 약 4배 인상. 연준이 추가로 50bp씩 인상을 계속할 가능성을 우려하며 시장이 이에 반발하고 있다고 진단. 세계 경제가 추가 긴축을 감당하기 어려울 수 있다고 봄. 기업인 발언: 머스크(극도로 나쁜 경제 느낌), 다이먼(JP모건, 허리케인 대비 발언), 골드만 사장(전례 없는 충격의 합류)을 인용해 경기 둔화 신호로 해석. 테슬라 5월 판매는 글로벌 60% 증가라고 언급. 재정·정치: 바이든의 WSJ 기고문에 대해 연준 독립 존중, 적자 축소(증세 포함), 헬스케어 비용 절감, 에너지 투자의 3가지 방안을 언급. 우드는 올해 증세·재정 합의는 어렵고, 헬스케어 비용 절감과 에너지 투자는 장기 과제라고 봄. 중간선거에서 공화당이 하원·상원을 가져갈 가능성이 커지고 있다고 전망하며, 이 경우 기술 규제 부담 완화와 원격진료 기업 수혜를 기대. 리스크: 물가 상승, 고금리, 지정학적 긴장으로 성장주 투자 심리 위축. 바이든 지지율은 39%까지 하락, 응답자 70% 이상이 물가·기름값 대응에 불만. 출연자 전망: 우드는 나스닥 약세장 속에서도 긴축 정책 완화 및 공화당 우위 시나리오에 따른 기술·헬스케어(원격진료) 반등을 장기적으로 기대하는 입장.
다듬은 글
uh now we're in a bear market essentially certainly the nasdaq is uh down 20 percent or more than 20 percent from its peak uh and uh i always say to my team it's darkest before the dawn and i do think we're moving into some cathartic moments uh we're certainly seeing uh the equity market rebel against uh what we believe is um monetary policy that will end up being too tight in terms of the uh midterm elections one of the things that is happening here is investors are beginning to think about a shift to a republican house and maybe a republican senate mostly because of how badly things have gone in this this year founder and ceos at arc investment management kathy wood has had a difficult start to the year last time the global markets faced a people during 2020 wood came out as one of the best performing hedge fund managers and returned 170 percent in the year this time around the negative markers are less unique than a pandemic with sky-high inflation rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions turning investors away from risky growth stocks her flagship arc innovation etf has fallen by more than 53 percent since the start of the year and her portfolio size has shrunk from 33.08 billion dollars at the end of december 2021 to 23.95 billion dollars at the end of q1 of 2022.
kathy wood believes inflation and joe biden poor handling of the economy may affect the chances of the democrats during the midterm election this view aligned with a recent pool which shows that americans say gas prices economy will dictate midterm election votes americans deeply disapprove of president biden's handling of the economy inflation and soaring gas prices and say those three issues will dictate how they will vote in the midterm elections this fall when control of congress is at stake a poll released sunday shows more than 8 in 10 americans 83 cite the economy as an extremely or very important issue in determining how they will cast their vote in november according to an abc news poll before we listen to kathy wood and her views on why she thinks the economy has fared badly please give this video a like and consider subscribing if you are yet to do so thanks for watching our videos in the last month uh the fed did tighten up we are now in the fed funds range between .75 percent and one percent so from basically zero to 25 percent uh we have our 25 basis points uh we've now gone if you use the high end of that range from 25 basis points to effectively one so up four-fold and the reason i'm giving that as perspective is we are beginning to wonder if one of the policy mistakes here is not understanding that we're starting uh with interest rates at such a low base that when you quadruple them or go up tenfold which which many people think the fed will do before all is said and done so going from 0.25 to 2.5 percent uh that's a 225 basis point increase that's up tenfold uh we've already gone up fourfold on to the economy well we've had some very interesting comments on the economy by business leaders just yesterday i believe elon musk said that he has a super bad feeling about the economy and we're trying to figure out what he's looking at we know his own sales were up tesla sales in the month of may i believe were up globally 60 and almost every other auto manufacturer sales were down and some of them down by a lot so it's not his own sales except perhaps at the margin maybe something that he's seeing in orders he may be reflecting on the decline in total auto sales and so that's interesting jamie dimon at jp morgan talked about a hurricane be prepared for a hurricane he doesn't know what kind of hurricane is it going to be a mild one or is it going to be a hurricane sandy which would be quite serious um but uh i think he's changed his tune a bit in in the last month since uh since jp morgan reported earnings so what what is he saying well he sees a lot of business activity and must see it slowing down if i if i had to guess and the president of goldman described this environment as a confluence of shocks that in his career has been unprecedented so again he has a very good perspective a global perspective every sector and so i would say at the margin these three business leaders are seeing uh the economy in in some uh in some form of stress we think the fed is probably overdoing it i think that certainly in terms of its intention to go up uh another two or three fifty basis point increases um uh the market's railing against that and it is perhaps because of this very low base that i mentioned in the beginning we've already gone up fourfold from the low still at a fairly low rate one percent on the fed funds but the market seems to be saying that this is more than just letting the markets work and letting interest rates go up uh the economy may not the global economy may not be able to take too much more kathy wood also talked about fiscal policy of the united states fiscal policy is the use of government spending and taxation to influence the economy governments typically use fiscal policy to promote strong and sustainable growth and reduce poverty the role and objectives of fiscal policy gain prominence during the recent global economic crisis when governments stepped in to support financial systems jump start growth and mitigate the impact of the crisis on vulnerable groups through fiscal policy governments can decide to spend money to provide public services support the economy and reduce inequalities they can collect this money via taxes or by borrowing from financial markets on the fiscal policy side it was very interesting to read president biden's op-ed in the wall street journal and his focus was inflation top of mind inflation is a big deal this midterm uh election year uh and it could uh it could make the difference between winning and losing so his three answers to inflation include let the fed do its work now that's really interesting as normally a democratic administration uh would expect a little more of a dovish uh fed they'd be arguing for less restraint but he's saying let the fed work and so i guess that's the fed is an independent uh body so the president doesn't shouldn't have any influence over what they do but it is interesting in an election year to have uh the president saying let the fed do its thing keep those interest rates going up the second is pull the deficit down the government deficit down that would be more of a republican argument so again a surprise and he uh has suggested ways to get it down uh that include tax increases uh we do not believe any of these will go through this year this is a midterm election year it's going to get it's going to be very difficult to get a agreement on tax increases this close to the midterm elections and then the other ideas he has include and this is predictable trying to whittle down health care costs especially for medicare that has been a weight on health care stocks recently including the genomic stocks which again if genomics companies can evolve cures that should save a lot of money but it just won't be this year it'll be over the long term and then he also is suggesting investing in new energy and so forth again that's a longer term solution so nothing really is going to come out of that for this year so in terms of the uh midterm elections one of the things that is happening here is investors are beginning to think about a shift to a republican house and maybe a republican senate mostly because of how badly things have gone in this this year and one of the things we're hearing is that there will be uh less pressure uh on on technology and and maybe more of movement towards it for example telemedicine in in uh medicare that's a great way to reduce costs and so we believe that the telemedicine companies are probably going to be benefited by a shift if there is a shift towards a republican wins in the house and the senate over 70 percent of americans disapprove of president biden's handling of soaring inflation and gas prices indicating that economic security remains a high priority for the voting population biden's approval rating has been sinking for months dropping to the lowest level of his presidency in late may at 39 percent satisfaction with his leadership has been declining for the last year of his tenure in office according to a recent poll conducted by the associated press and national opinion research center at the university of chicago while many issues have played the biden administration economic uncertainty and dwindling consumer purchasing power seem to be contributing most to americans negative outlook for the country you believe the current economic situation will have a huge impact in the coming midterm elections let us know your thoughts in the comments thanks for watching you
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