저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Fed가 인플레 둔화로 결국 금리인하로 선회할 것이며, Clarity Act 통과로 기관 크립토 유입이 확대된다고 주장. 이더리움은 토큰화·스테이블코인 결제 인프라로서 가치가 과소평가됐다고 봄. 금은 안전자산으로서 장기 보유 권고(약 1%), 단기 10% 조정 가능성 언급. 반도체 메모리주는 40% 하락, 이더리움은 약 30% 상승 대비.
다듬은 글
The bond market is hawkish, thinking the Fed has to hike. Our bet is that inflation is going to undershoot expectations. People are too focused on oil as a driver of inflation, and we've already had the oil shock. Uh so, I think we've had peak inflationary impact from oil. The underlying inflation drivers are weakening cuz housing is weak, wages aren't really accelerating, and that would put the Fed in a position to actually cut rates, um which would be dovish.
And now, the Clarity Act is on the as they say in the one-yard line. That will open up the floodgates because the Clarity Act is going to provide a single agency to have oversight of the entire crypto economy. The market feels like it's holding its breath. Despite Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies showing renewed strength over the past week or two, crypto sentiment still feels strangely subdued.
Retail participation remains muted. Many investors are still waiting for confirmation, and a large portion of the market continues to act as if the next major breakout needs one more catalyst before it can truly begin. According to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, that catalyst may be much closer than most people realize.
While many traders have become convinced that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish for the foreseeable future, Lee believes the exact opposite may happen. His view is that inflation pressures are already cooling beneath the surface. Housing remains weak. Wage growth is no longer accelerating the way it once was, and the inflationary impact of higher oil prices may have already peaked.
If he's right, the Fed could find itself moving toward rate cuts sooner than markets currently expect. At the same time, another potentially game-changing development is approaching the finish line in Washington. The Clarity Act is now closer than ever to becoming reality, creating a regulatory framework that could finally give institutions the confidence to enter the crypto market at scale.
In today's video, Tom Lee explains why he believes the Fed's next move could surprise investors, why the Clarity Act could unlock the largest wave of institutional crypto adoption in history, and why he believes Ethereum is uniquely positioned to benefit from the rapidly growing tokenization trend. If you enjoy these deep dive market breakdowns, make sure to , and let us know in the comments whether you think the next major crypto rally begins before or after the Fed pivots.
Thanks, and enjoy the video. This crypto, you know, the this neglect, is this is that going to end soon? What would What would it take for crypto to be as exciting as it was not very long ago? Well, I think you're describing a bear market, you know, like uh in bear markets, people don't talk about stocks, you know, uh when them when Apple was down, no one talked about Apple, right?
So, we know [clears throat] price drives sentiment, and crypto's been in a drawdown, but you'd expect at the bottom to people to be bearish. Uh in fact, that's exactly what makes a bottom is, you know, it's a deal you you deleverage people, and then you uh reset expectations. Crypto has [clears throat] so many catalysts.
I mean, since the end of June, Ethereum has outperformed memory stocks by 72 percentage points. I mean, that's pretty huge. Um you know, people have lost 40% in memory, and they've made almost 30% in Ethereum. Um and now the Clarity Act is on the as they say in the 1-yard line, that will open up the floodgates because the Clarity Act is going to provide a single agency to have oversight of the entire crypto economy.
Um that doesn't exist today. It's all it's state regulated, and there's fragmentated fragmented regulation. Japan and other countries are already taking a similar version of Clarity Act. Russia just passed one. So, the US obviously has to catch up. This is going to create institutional adoption of crypto.
That's a bigger market than anything that's existed in crypto before. So, I think it's, you know, if someone's been in crypto a long time, they've been in the hobby phase. I I'd call it Ethereum 1.0 because it was meme coins and NFTs. This future market is stable coins, payment rails. You know, Robinhood wants to tokenize everything.
And by the way, they could have built on any blockchain. They built Robinhood chain on Ethereum. They launched it. It's already a breakaway success. More than a billion dollars of volume daily on Robinhood chain. And it's generating Robinhood might make a billion a year from this chain that they just launched.
It is a massive massive hit for them. So, I think every Wall Street firm is watching what Robinhood did and realized there's a lot of money to be made tokenizing assets onto Ethereum. Any thoughts on gold and silver? Have we, you know, are we seeing something similar to what we may be seeing in crypto?
Yeah. Well, you know, gold's have made a huge move. Uh like it you know, gold isn't as volatile as other assets cuz it's a store of value. And if you look at the last 3-year move, it's probably uh in its entire history. I'm talking, you know, 12 centuries of history for gold. It was like a five standard deviation move.
So, it makes sense gold has to consolidate that rise. Um and I think you know, maybe I don't know, maybe it's got 10% downside, but that's pretty much it. I think gold is proven to be a real store of value. Uh so, at Fundstrat, we've legitimately uh advocate to own a portion a stake in gold. I don't know, less than the Bitcoin holdings, but let's say it's 1% in gold.
And I think it's a good hedge because in the future uh you know, whether it's debt uncertainty or AI's disruption or social unrest, these are kind of things that could make gold incredibly important in the future and I nothing's changed because in an AI world, gold's safety haven as a store value probably hasn't changed.
So, I I think you you know, everyone should own it, but you know, it it had a big move, so it needs to consolidate. While regulatory clarity may be one of the biggest catalysts for adoption, Lee believes another force could have an equally important impact on markets, monetary policy. If inflation continues to cool and the Fed ultimately shifts toward easing, the implications could extend far beyond stocks and bonds.
According to Lee, sectors tied to innovation, artificial intelligence, software, and crypto could be among the biggest beneficiaries. That brings us to another area where Tom Lee sees enormous opportunity, Ethereum. While Bitcoin continues strengthening its role as digital gold, Lee believes Ethereum is becoming something very different.
Through Bitmain's aggressive accumulation strategy, he's effectively making a long-term bet that Ethereum will become one of the foundational layers of the future financial system. As Wall Street increasingly embraces tokenized assets, stablecoins, and blockchain-based settlement networks, Lee argues that Ethereum sits directly at the center of that transformation.
What are the themes that you see for the second half of the year for the equity markets? Well, I think that our strategy has been working so far this year because you know, uh if you look at what we've liked, um our best sort of execution that is our Granny Shots ETF, GRNY, and uh year-to-date it's outperforming the S&P 500 by of like 120 basis points.
And it's a top decile fund this year. So, we're outperforming more than 92% of all fund managers with Grayscale. And uh and that's because we stuck with long-term themes. You know, we still believe in AI as a downstream story and we still believe in cybersecurity and security. And we are betting on monetary easing by the Fed even though the market's gotten hawkish.
And in fact, small caps are doing exceptionally well this year. And that's probably the biggest clue that the Fed's going to be dovish. So, uh I'd say that we didn't make a lot of changes to our view on in Grayscale for the second half. And I think we're sticking with sort of the idea that uh earnings growth is accelerating and we're in earnings season now.
I think the AI story is very much intact. But we are willing to buy the downstream story. So, like what Mag 7 software and crypto should are the downstream of AI stories. And they're beginning to outperform. And the other piece is I I do think the Fed is the bond market is hawkish thinking the Fed has to hike.
Our bet is that inflation is going to undershoot expectations. People are too focused on oil as a driver of inflation. And we've already had the oil shock. Uh so, I think we've had peak inflationary impact from oil. The underlying inflation drivers are weakening cuz housing's weak, wages aren't really accelerating.
And that would put the Fed in a position to actually cut rates, um which would be dovish. Tell us you what the difference is between sort of the idea Bitmain how it's executed versus something like strategy. Well, just to clarify, if Bitmain is the largest Ethereum treasury, you know, and actually the largest holder of Ethereum in the world uh with almost 5.78 million ETH coins.
But, it's actually not the first Ethereum treasury. It was probably the fourth or fifth. But, we became the biggest uh and we just crossed 1 year of operations because we had a very simple strategy. Uh we kept the capital structure very simple uh and we wanted to accumulate Ethereum. Uh and so, that's how we've been able to grow so rapidly and we're I think five times bigger than the next Ethereum treasury.
And uh to contrast us to MicroStrategy, you know, MicroStrategy I'm I'm still quite bullish on. In fact, we own it in the Granny funds cuz I'm bullish on Bitcoin. But, we take a very different approach. One is Well, the two biggest differences maybe I should highlight three. But, the first is the native asset.
Bitcoin is a store value. And the ecosystem around Bitcoin wants to quote ossify Bitcoin. You know, not introduce changes, make it always a store value, like digital gold. By contrast, Ethereum is a yield-bearing asset, roughly a 3% yield. And that's because it's proof of stake. So, the security work is done by those who are staking ETH and in return, they get paid a yield.
Uh and the ecosystem is developing and it's the largest ecosystem in crypto, bigger than even Bitcoin. And they are trying to position and successfully so far to make Ethereum the financial settlement layer for Wall Street. So, the entire financial rails probably will run on stablecoins, which run on ETH.
Ethereum. The second difference is that uh MicroStrategy has a a some arguably somewhat passive approach to Bitcoin. Meaning, they own it and they want to create digital credit. Bitmain is very active in the ecosystem. You know, we've funded the three We're the lead investor in in three spin-offs from the Ethereum Foundation.
All of which are targeted to strengthen Ethereum and either focused on improving price or strengthening the ecosystem. And there's more. Um so, we are really part of helping shape the future of Ethereum. And the third is balance sheet complexity. Uh MicroStrategy by design has a complex balance sheet.
They have um convertibles, and they have four classes of preferred stock, and they have common equity. And in some cases, those components of the balance sheet compete with each other. And because Bitcoin has no native yield, they have to sell stock in order to fund the dividends. Bitmain has a very simple capital structure.
It has common equity, and it we just launched a perpetual preferred. The staking yields that we're generating today at the current price of Ethereum is about $6 million a week. Um about 300 million a year. If Ethereum goes to 5,000, then this gets close to a billion a year. And it would be almost 20 million a week.
But our perpetual preferred offering has a 30 million a year in dividend requirements. So, we can fund our preferred easily with our staking yield. And so, I think we have a simple capital structure. We are betting on the future of Ethereum as a settlement layer for not only Wall Street, but for how robots communicate.
And we're part of the ecosystem. So, I think you should think of Bitmain as highly highly integrated into Ethereum. When you step back and look at the bigger picture, Tom Lee's thesis isn't really about one specific asset. It's about the convergence of several major trends that are all moving in the same direction.
Inflation is gradually cooling. The possibility of monetary easing remains alive. Regulatory clarity is closer than it has ever been. And traditional financial institutions are increasingly exploring how blockchain technology can modernize the movement and settlement of capital. For Ethereum specifically, the opportunity may be even larger than many investors currently appreciate.
The tokenization movement is no longer a theoretical concept discussed at conferences. Major financial firms are actively experimenting with tokenized securities, tokenized funds, digital payment rails, and blockchain-based settlement systems. If this trend accelerates, the networks processing those transactions could become some of the most valuable infrastructure platforms in the world.
That is why Lee's conviction around Bitmain and Ethereum extends beyond simple price speculation. His argument is that Ethereum's role within the financial ecosystem may continue expanding as more institutions build products directly on top of its network. If tokenization becomes a defining trend of the next decade, Ethereum may benefit from a level of adoption that today's market has not fully priced in.
Whether or not every aspect of Lee's outlook ultimately plays out, one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The combination of improving regulation, potential Fed easing, growing institutional participation, and accelerating blockchain adoption is creating a very different backdrop than the one crypto investors faced over the past few years.
The market may still be waiting for confirmation, but according to Lee, the foundations for the next major phase of growth are already being built. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to an update. Also, share this video with anyone following Bitcoin, Ethereum, or the broader crypto market. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you in the next video.
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