저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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미국 경제 공포는 과장됐다고 주장. 해외 미국채 보유는 여전히 증가 중이며 중국·인도 매도는 성장률 부담 요인에 그침. 정부부채/GDP 100%는 성장으로 낮아질 수 있고 재정 긴축·세제 감세로 적자가 줄 것. 1970년대와 달리 통화증가율은 낮게 유지. 감세·규제완화로 미국 자본 수익률이 해외보다 높아지며 혁신 인센티브가 강해 달러 강세 전망. 미국 예외주의 종말은 과장이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
From the narrative out there, you would think that every central bank is selling Treasury securities and that the dollar's day is done. And from this chart, you can see that's just not true. There has There have been some sales. We know both uh China and India have been selling. Um but for the most part um and they have been a drag on the growth rate here.
Uh but uh for the most part uh the Treasury securities held abroad are still are still increasing. For years, investors have been told that America's debt is spiraling out of control. Inflation will stay elevated for years. The dollar is losing its dominance and the economy is headed toward a painful reckoning.
Those concerns have shaped everything from interest rate expectations to investment decisions. But what if many of those assumptions are built on outdated comparisons and incomplete data? Few investors have challenged conventional thinking as consistently as Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest.
Whether she's discussing innovation, monetary policy, or the future of the global economy, Wood often builds her outlook by connecting long-term macro trends with structural technological change. In her latest market update, she argues that many of today's most widely accepted fears simply don't match what the data is actually showing.
Before we hear Cathie Wood's analysis, take a second to support the channel. If you enjoy thoughtful macroeconomic and crypto market coverage backed by expert insights, please give this video a like. Subscribe if you're new loads. Now, here's why Cathie Wood believes investors may be looking at the US economy through the wrong lens.
Here, uh starting with fiscal policy. And you can see, as usual, deficit relative to GDP. The green line there is where uh Treasury Secretary Bessent uh is aiming to take the deficit by the end of '28 or at least fiscal '28, so September of '28. Uh we think uh that he and this administration will achieve a much lower deficit because growth is going to be much stronger, we think, uh than than is in most forecasts, including the government's own forecasts.
Uh so, on the next slide, uh want to con- tinue here with fiscal policy. Uh here is uh a chart. The green line is debt, government debt relative to GDP. So, it's over 100%. Uh and that has many people very concerned. Uh now, you can look at the purple line, and that's debt relative to equities in the United States.
Uh and you can see that is on a down slope. Um we like to think of equities as representing wealth out there, so debt uh relative to wealth uh going down. Nonetheless, as I was traveling around, this debt to GDP ratio has been getting a lot of press, mostly because uh people think that interest rates and inflation are going to be stuck at these levels for a very long period of time because the debt seems intractable.
Uh and uh we can only bail our uh self out of this uh problem by inflating it away. Um we disagree entirely. We're not as alarmed by this number. Uh we do think that as this government uh focuses on getting that deficit down, uh that debt relative to GDP will start to come down again, especially if we are right that uh growth uh is going to surprise significantly on the high side of expectations.
So, here I wanted to take a look at both fiscal and monetary policy in a single glance uh to show the contrast between today um now that we have pretty much uh we are on the other side of the COVID boom bust uh and the '60s and '70s. And you can see how different uh it was back then. Uh the the purple line was federal outlays outlays, and you can see what so-called guns and butter did back then.
Guns, we were in the Vietnam War, so defense spending was booming. And uh guns and butter, uh the social programs that were put in place back then, all ballooned uh government spending. And you can see from the green line, while it didn't accommodate it altogether, uh over time, uh money growth accelerated and uh and really by the late '70s was accommodating all of the spending.
Uh and it was an intractable problem until Volker came in in the early '80s, late '70s, early '80s, and just slammed on the brakes. And you can see he slammed on the brakes, and he kept anytime uh inflation fears uh uh were reviving, he slammed on the brakes again. So, money growth did slow down quite significantly.
Uh so, that's that's some of the history. You can see why so many people were afraid that we were going back into that environment. And it was because of what happened during COVID and also because of '08-'09 trying to get out of that mess and then having to deal with COVID. So, these are very long-term in terms of their four-year annualized rates of change.
So, you can see we're on the other side and federal outlays, while they have picked up recently, defense big reason for that. They are still from a growth rate point of view on a four-year moving average basis still near the lower end of where they have been in this chart's history. As is money growth.
So, we believe that fiscal and monetary policy after you know, the shock shocks of '08-'09 and COVID that we have reset and we are in a good place and that fears about debt as a percent of GDP continuing to climb are misplaced. Cathie Wood's argument isn't that America's debt suddenly doesn't matter.
Instead, she believes investors are focusing on one headline number while overlooking the forces that ultimately determine whether debt becomes manageable or dangerous. In her view, stronger economic growth, improving productivity, and tighter fiscal discipline could change the trajectory of debt much faster than many economists currently expect.
She also argues that today's monetary environment bears little resemblance to the inflationary backdrop of the 1970s making many historical comparisons misleading. But perhaps her most controversial view comes next. While headlines continue to warn about dedollarization and the decline of American exceptionalism, Wood believes the evidence points in the opposite direction.
She explains why she remains bullish on the US dollar and why innovation could become America's greatest economic advantage over the coming years. From the narrative out there, you would think that every central bank is selling treasury securities and that the dollar's day is done. And from this chart, you can see that's just not true.
There has There have been some sales. We know both uh China and India have been selling. Um but for the most part um and and they have been a drag on the growth rate here. Uh but for the most part uh the treasury securities held abroad are still in are still increasing. Uh so we wanted to put that in perspective because last time around uh you saw we we we showed a chart that um uh where Turkey was basically out of treasury bills.
It was It had uh been supporting its uh its currency uh by selling treasury bills and uh taking the dollars and buying Turkish lira. Uh so we we see that uh currencies around the world, Japan and uh Korea I mentioned before, those currencies, I think Japan's is at a 40-year low. Um at roughly 162 uh yen per dollar.
Uh and so they're probably going to take uh some more concerted action. We had seen that Japan, I think in April, had uh sold, I think, $76 billion worth of Treasury bills attempting to support its currency. It wasn't enough. It went out to an all-time low. So, we we do hear that narrative, but I wanted to present this chart because there's not a wholesale disgorgement of US Treasury securities.
So, on the next chart, we will focus on the dollar, and you can see this is our Kalshi chart. How high will the dollar get this year? And you can see the number is 104.9. And it was higher before today's employment report. And we'll get into the employment report in a moment. But, it was much softer than expected in many ways.
And so, the dollar the dollar predictions went down in terms of the level because most I believe most of the tightening moves have been taken out of forecasts. And most people think that higher interest rates support the dollar, which is true. The dollar does attract more buyers when interest rates here are higher.
But, if you'll notice the you can't see it on this chart. You'll see it on the next chart. The dollar is actually at today this was yesterday's number. Today, it's at about 100.5, somewhere in that range. So, the the betting is that the dollar is going to go up. At least Kalshi Kalshi's um, prediction markets think so.
Uh, and we would agree with that. And and and for a couple of reasons. I've been saying for some time that fiscal policy, so the deregulation and and massive tax cuts, uh, especially for corporations that we've seen over the last year, um, are beginning to increase the return on invested capital in the United States relative to that abroad.
Uh, there's another thing that's become very obvious. And uh, we saw it with SpaceX's debut in the public markets, but uh, which created many, many millionaires and hundred millionaires. Uh, the return on invested capital uh, is higher here and the return on labor is higher here. Uh, the the kind of incentives for innovation in this country, um, are like nowhere else in the world.
Uh, and so I think that's becoming very obvious. And of course, Open AI and Anthropic are soon to follow and uh, that will be the same story all over again. Uh, so we think we are dollar positive. Uh, as uh, as I've mentioned on many calls. I know that's not the narrative out there. Uh, and in fact, the uh, the end of American exceptional exceptional exceptionalism uh, is uh, we think greatly exaggerated.
SpaceX, Open AI, and Anthropic, uh, very important cases in point. Cathie Wood's broader message is that investors should be careful not to confuse popular narratives with economic reality. Markets often become dominated by stories that sound convincing, but history repeatedly shows that consensus can be wrong when the underlying fundamentals begin to shift.
Her presentation challenges viewers to look beyond headlines and focus instead on productivity, innovation, and long-term economic trends. A major pillar of her outlook is the belief that technological innovation is becoming an increasingly powerful economic force. Companies developing artificial intelligence, aerospace technologies, robotics, and other breakthrough industries have the potential, in her view, to increase productivity across the economy, improve returns on capital, and support stronger long-term growth.
If those trends continue, they could reshape many of today's assumptions about government debt, inflation, and economic resilience. Her optimism about the dollar follows the same logic. Rather than expecting capital to permanently flow away from the United States, Wood believes investors will continue to favor markets that offer the strongest innovation ecosystem, the highest returns on investment, and the greatest opportunities for wealth creation.
Whether that ultimately proves correct will depend on how these structural trends unfold over the next several years. But it stands in sharp contrast to the prevailing narrative surrounding America's economic future. As always, no single forecast is guaranteed to play out exactly as expected, and the coming years will undoubtedly test many competing macroeconomic views.
But hearing thoughtful arguments from experienced investors helps us better understand the forces shaping global markets and prepare for multiple possible outcomes. We'd love to hear your perspective. Do you agree with Cathie Wood that fears surrounding US debt and the dollar have been overstated, or do you think the risks are still being underestimated?
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