저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Bitcoin이 3분기 연속 하락 중이며 4분기 연속 하락은 역사상 없었다는 점에서 6월~9월 반등 여부가 중요한 테스트라고 주장. 현재 가격은 생산원가보다 약 5% 낮고, 생산원가의 50% 아래로 떨어지면 네트워크 유지가 불가능한 수준으로 봄. 블록체인의 신뢰 없는 거래 해결 가치는 유효하며 월가의 토큰화·스테이블코인 구축은 계속된다고 강조. 매크로(긴축 전환), 클래리티법 지연, AI로의 자본 쏠림이 역풍이지만 구조적 훼손은 아님. 연말 비트코인 10만 달러 이상, 이더리움 5천 달러 회복 전망. 주식은 2027년 S&P 이익 컨센서스 350→400으로 상향, PE 18.4로 연초보다 저렴해졌다며 강세 유지. AI 리스크(전력 인프라, Anthropic·OpenAI IPO 연기 의문) 언급.
다듬은 글
비트코인 시장의 인내심 시험
I think investors' patience is clearly tested, because Bitcoin has been down three quarters in a row, but it has never been down four quarters in a row. So if they don't bounce from June to September, then you're right, maybe something's broken.
비트코인 생산원가라는 기준선
For Bitcoin, the way to look at it is its production cost, because there is a cost of mining to find the next block. I think Bitcoin is about 5% below production cost right now. If Bitcoin falls below 50% of production cost, it literally means you just take down the network. You can't support managing the Bitcoin network at its current price. To me, that would be the equivalent of JP Morgan trading at half of book value.
블록체인이 여전히 중요한 이유
The reason we were bullish on crypto at the start of this year, and really for the last 10 years, is that cryptocurrencies and blockchains solve an important problem: how do you trust transactions between two untrusted parties? That type of settlement and finality has been proven, because Bitcoin and Ethereum have never recorded a fraudulent entry in their entire history. That is why Wall Street is building tokenized assets and stablecoin rails. Over time, I think blockchain will actually replace a lot of the legacy financial rails. For instance, there's a Goldman Sachs conference in London today in Europe, and the number of attendees has almost tripled from a year ago.
AI 시대의 에이전트와 블록체인
I'm also bullish on crypto because agents and AI are becoming much wealthier. We're starting to see agents and robots create wealth for us. The opportunity is that we may reach a point where agents actually own more wealth than we do. I'll call that the uncanny valley of wealth. There may be a point where, if our delegated agents make more money than we do, we'll wonder whether we work for them or they work for us. That is why crypto and many technologists are starting to realize that crypto is one of the ways for humans to control the future of agents.
가격 하락의 원인: 매크로와 자본 이동
Those two megatrends are still in place, but crypto prices have been absolutely terrible this year. Part of it is macro. Monetary policy is not dovish. It looked dovish six months ago. The market was expecting two cuts, and now it's pricing two hikes. That's a headwind. The Clarity Act, which was supposed to create federal preemption over crypto rules and let the CFTC take purview over the industry, is still stuck in Congress. And AI has done so well that it has not only taken away attention, it has taken away investor capital. Those are headwinds, but they are not creating what I call intermodal replacements. Blockchain will still be central to the future of financial services and to how we manage AI.
하락은 사이클 안의 변동폭
Crypto is hyper-volatile. Bitcoin falling from 120,000 to 58,000, and Ethereum, which is beta to Bitcoin, falling from 5,000 to 1,600, is still within the historical parameters of crypto bull and bear cycles. So the price hasn't moved to a level that says anything is broken. What has broken is that stocks have done well this year while crypto has done badly. Part of that is macro: the Fed turning a bit more hawkish, AI pulling capital, and the Clarity Act's positive effects not arriving yet. But none of those break the crypto story, because blockchain is still the best way to transmit and store value and record transactions without trust. That's why Wall Street keeps building on blockchains. It just isn't reaching everyday life yet. The same logic explains why AI engineers are experimenting with blockchain to manage future agents and protect us, since as AI becomes wealthy, humans might be taken out of that economic loop. That's why I believe Bitcoin will make a full recovery. I expect Bitcoin to be above 100,000 by the end of the year and Ethereum back above 5,000.
손절 기준선은 생산원가
Investors' patience is clearly being tested, because Bitcoin has been down three quarters in a row, but it has never been down four in a row. So this is a test: if it doesn't bounce from June to September, you could be right that something is broken. Is there a price at which you would say the story is broken and it won't work anymore? For Bitcoin, the way to look at it is production cost, since there is a cost of mining to find the next block. Bitcoin is about 5% below production cost right now. If it falls below 50% of production cost, the network itself can't be sustained at that price, which would be like JP Morgan trading at half of book value.
일시적 고통과 구조적 훼손의 구분
Lee's argument comes down to separating temporary market pain from permanent structural damage. Crypto has dramatically underperformed expectations, and headwinds such as tighter monetary policy, delayed regulatory clarity, and the rise of AI have pulled attention and capital away from digital assets. But none of these change the reason blockchain exists. If blockchain remains the most reliable system for transferring value without trust, today's weak prices may reflect an unfavorable macro backdrop rather than broken technology. That distinction is why he still forecasts a meaningful recovery, even while acknowledging that investor patience is wearing thin.
주식시장과 실적 전망
The conversation widens to the broader market. Lee remains constructive on equities despite valuation concerns, and he weighs whether the AI-driven rally can continue and what risks would appear if the AI narrative lost momentum. 2026 is tracking to be the fourth year of double-digit gains. When markets post three years of strong gains, as in 2023, 2024, and 2025, the fourth year has tended to be solid. At the start of this year, the thinking was that earnings would drive the market, and that has held. The 2027 S&P earnings consensus was about 350 at the start of the year and is now about 400, up 50. The forward P/E on 2027 earnings was 19.4 then and is now 18.4. So the stock market has actually gotten cheaper than it was in January, even though it's up 9%. Earnings could be revised higher further, supported by AI and energy infrastructure buildout, onshoring, and residual government infrastructure spending.
마진 부채와 펀드매니저 성과
Sentiment hasn't become buoyant, but two factors need weighing now that we're mid-year. Margin debt is much higher than at the start of the year, up 55% year over year, which is the fifth-highest annual increase in almost 70 years. Historically, that has been associated with traders running out of firepower. On the other side, 76% of large-cap growth fund managers are trailing their benchmarks this year, a historically high number. Large-cap blend is at 60%, less extreme. Growth managers probably missed much of the semiconductor and DRAM rally, and they may chase it in the second half, which is why I'd stay bullish.
AI 버블 우려와 불확실성
Do you fear cracks are starting to show in the AI story, and that this would ripple through markets? There are many ways the AI story can go wrong. We have to build a parallel amount of power and infrastructure to support it, and that is an enormous lift. We won't really know what it means for residential electricity prices, environmental damage, or quality of life near hyperscaler data centers. It's also curious that Anthropic and OpenAI both delayed their IPOs, since each would benefit from the other going public first. It might relate to the US government throttling new models, since Mythos faced scrutiny and Fable had to be pulled. Maybe the government is now reviewing all the models and throttling plans, but I don't know. I think SpaceX is a huge success, so I don't think its IPO has anything to do with OpenAI and Anthropic delaying theirs.
극단을 피하는 시각
One of the most interesting aspects of Lee's outlook is that it refuses to fall into either extreme. He isn't declaring everything fine, and he isn't saying Bitcoin's long-term story has failed. He's acknowledging what many investors have felt for months: this market has become much harder to navigate. Crypto has struggled while equities keep reaching new highs.
AI가 전 세계 투자 자본의 엄청난 몫을 빨아들였고, 통화정책에 대한 불확실성 때문에 펀더멘털이 탄탄한 자산조차 많은 사람의 예상보다 오래 압박을 받을 수 있는 환경이 만들어졌습니다. 그럼에도 제가 처음 강세론자가 되게 만든 힘들은 사라지지 않았다고 생각합니다.
금융기관들은 여전히 블록체인 인프라에 많은 돈을 투자하고 있고, 토큰화는 이론 단계에서 실제 구현 단계로 넘어오고 있습니다. 스테이블코인도 글로벌 금융에서 점점 더 중요해지고 있고요. 그리고 가장 흥미로운 부분인데, 자율 에이전트들이 디지털 경제에 더 적극적으로 참여하기 시작하면 인공지능 자체가 오히려 탈중앙화 블록체인 네트워크의 중요성을 키울 수도 있다고 봅니다.
제가 보기에 이것들은 오늘의 시장 사이클을 훨씬 넘어서는 구조적 변화입니다. 그렇다고 투자자 여러분에게 경고 신호를 무시하라고 말씀드리는 건 아닙니다. 비트코인이 역사적으로 중요한 시험대에 가까워지고 있다는 제 발언이나, 감정적인 시장 등락보다 생산 비용을 지켜봐야 한다는 강조는 규율 있는 투자가 끊임없이 근거를 다시 점검하는 일이라는 뜻입니다.
시장은 변하고, 내러티브도 바뀝니다. 그러니 아무리 강한 장기 확신이라도 새로운 정보 앞에서 검증받아야 합니다. 그래서 다음 분기는 이것이 여전히 고통스럽지만 평범한 크립토 사이클인지, 아니면 투자자들이 정말 가정을 다시 생각해야 하는지를 확인하는 가장 중요한 시기 중 하나가 될 수 있습니다.
그래서 앞으로 몇 달은 크립토 투자자뿐 아니라 앞으로 10년 동안 자본이 어디로 흘러갈지 이해하려는 모든 사람에게 특히 중요합니다. 이번 분석이 도움이 되셨다면, 비트코인과 크립토, 거시경제, 시장에 관한 영상에도 관심 가져 주세요. 음.
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