저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금 가격 폭등 주장 제목과 달리 본문은 자산별 방향 예측이 거의 없고, 거시 구조(부채·부의 격차·강대국 경쟁)와 분산투자 원칙을 설명하는 영상이다. [거시 배경: 부채 사이클] 제로금리에서 정부가 구매력을 필요로 하지만 세금으로 걷지 못해 부채를 늘리고, 중앙은행이 돈을 찍어 그 부채를 사들인다고 설명한다. 2008년 이후 금리가 0으로 떨어진 뒤 같은 일이 일어났으며, 부채 사이클의 끝에 가까워지고 있다고 본다. 이는 화폐 가치 하락(인플레이션)으로 이어진다는 주장이다. [부의 격차와 정치적 갈등] 역사적으로 돈과 권력이 항상 갈등의 원인이었고, 큰 부의 격차와 경기 침체, 특히 부채가 겹치면 정치적 갈등이 커진다고 말한다. 코로나 때 지급된 보조금을 예로 들며, 그것이 없었다면 혁명 수준의 사태가 났을 것이라고 언급한다. [강대국 경쟁: 미국 vs 중국] 1945년 이후 미국 중심 세계 질서가 형성되었고, 현재 중국이 이에 도전하는 첫 강대국이라고 본다. 중국의 평균 소득이 30배 증가했다는 점을 들어 비교 가능한 강대국으로 평가한다. [투자 원칙] 과거 잘 오른 투자 대상이 좋은 투자라고 착각하는 것이 가장 흔한 실수라고 지적한다. 고가 자산은 더 비싸지고, 순진한 자금이 뜨거운 자산이나 많이 떨어진 자산을 쫓는다고 설명한다. [분산투자] 모든 투자는 경쟁 관계이며 어느 것이 나은지 알기 어렵고, 전문가도 최고를 고르기 힘들다고 말한다. 따라서 분산투자는 수익을 줄이지 않고 위험을 낮추는 핵심 수단이라고 강조한다. [종목별 방향 언급] 금·주식·채권 등 개별 자산에 대한 명시적 가격 전망은 본문에 없다. 제목의 '금 폭등' 주장은 자막상 뒷받침되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
the most common mistake of investing thinking that the investment that did good is a good investment there are three things that are going on now the two great extremes that have not existed since the to 45 period and it's important to know those three things and then to understand them well uh the first is what is going on with money and credit when you get to something like a zero interest rate and you need buying power the government needs buying power but they can't tax it so what we have is the production of a lot of debt that the central bank prints money and buys that debt to spend and the last time that happened in the last few years it happened starting in 2008 interest rates hit zero they couldn't lower their interest rates so they had to print a lot of debt and the government went in and bought it okay and we're coming to the end of a debt cycle okay so this is a big thing like because where does the money come from and who will get what the government will now determine that and then they'll print it and it'll devalue money okay this is and how money flows a big deal so that's number one the second one are wealth and political gaps that are causing great conflicts throughout history there's always been the main things that everybody's always fought over is money and power particularly political power so what we have is a situation when you have a large wealth gap and you have an economic downturn particularly if you put a lot of debt having at the same time you you have a fight i mean that's been true through history and it's reflected in the political gap so the political gap is it's classic political debt left right capitalist socialist well how do you distribute it how are you going to deal with that that becomes the other and how you fight so that's the second of the two this wealth political gap that's causing the conflict and it's coming at a time where we don't have much money because we don't have a good financial position we're printing and putting it out with made-up money meaning what happened like kovid was such a good example a lot of people and companies had falls in their income that would be ruinous if checks didn't go out we would have had a revolution and so those checks and how do you save everything and so on okay so and it's not like the government had real money so they made more debt and then the federal reserve printed it you know the checks went out which diminishes the value of money and so on and changes things so then the third thing is the rise of a great power to challenge an existing brake power so the rise of china to challenge the united states in all history there are world orders what that means are the dominant power you know it's like in nature almost so the big bull or something anyway there's the dominant power and then what happens is in 1945 we entered the american world order the united states won the war and then in 1945 the winners of the world carved up the world we had 80 percent of what was considered money at the time gold 80 of the world's money essentially we counted for half the world's economy and the rules were set in the united states basically that's why the united nations is in new york the world bank and the imf are in washington dc because we began the american century and then we are now at a time we've never had somebody another power challenge us the same way there was the soviet union but they were always a fraction of the size economically so couldn't compete on that same basis they had nuclear weapons but they didn't have the economic power and so on but now we're dealing with china coming on as a power i spend a lot of time in china over the last 36 years by the way and i admire how they're doing a lot of things i mean i know it's controversial to say that but in terms of like they're a power whoa like since i started going there their average income has increased by 30 times so they're a comparable power and they're also growing faster and so that has an effect so those three things are things that never happened in my lifetime before but happened before in history which led me to do the studies of what happened in history and the lessons i could gain the most common mistake of investing thinking that the investment that did good is a good investment people rather more expensive the things that quite often those markets that did really really well became more expensive and everybody smart money is all the time comparing them and competing so what happens is the naive money buys the thing that was hot or is hot the thing that has been terrible which might be the thing that's beaten down so i would say also an important element diversify because what i learned about this is that first of all all investments compete and it's not easy to tell whether one investment is better than the other because if people could do that life would be easy and everybody make a ton of money and this is a competitive game that's very difficult to compete in so it's very difficult to say which one's better or worse you can take experts and do all sorts of tests and you'll find out that they can pick that and you can't tell whether the worst ones are going to be better so because of that you understand that even picking the best ones is difficult and particularly if you're naive like we spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year on research to try to give us an edge okay now you've got to compete with us so competing in the markets is more difficult than competing in the olympics but there are more people who try harder in order to do that so it's a zero-sum game but diversification will reduce your risk without reducing your return so if you know how to diversify well that's critical
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