저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 미국이 세계 최대 채무국으로 상대적 쇠퇴기에 들어갔다고 보며, 21세기는 아시아, 특히 중국의 시대라고 주장한다. 미국 경제: 국가부채가 사상 최대 수준으로 빠르게 늘고 있어 구조적 쇠퇴가 우려되며, 일시적 반등은 있어도 장기 쇠퇴는 멈추지 않을 것이라고 본다. 달러는 '나쁜 동네의 좋은 집'처럼 상대적으로 낫다는 이유로 보유 중이며 단기 약세장 반등 정도로 평가한다. 원자재: 30년간 생산설비 투자 부족으로 원자재 강세 사이클이 아직 끝나지 않았다고 본다. 농업 인력 고령화와 투자 부족을 이유로 농산물 가격 상승을 전망한다. 금은 11년 연속 상승 후 조정 중이며, 보유를 유지하고 추가 하락 시 더 살 의향이 있다. 중국·아시아: 중국 주식은 폭락 시 사들였고 위안화를 보유 중이다. 원자재를 통한 중국 투자가 가장 좋은 방법이라고 본다. 인도는 부채비율 90%와 관료주의로 사업에 부정적이고, 일본은 최고 수준의 내부부채와 인구감소로 우려되며 엔화·주식을 5년 뒤에도 보유하지 않을 것이라 말한다. 한반도·기타: 남북한 통합 가능성을 언급하며 흥미로운 기회로 보지만 투자 방법은 찾지 못했다. 미국 주식은 대부분 공매도 상태이고 주식 보유는 적다고 밝힌다. 미국 국민이라 미얀마 투자가 제한된다고 언급한다. 리스크: 미국 부채 문제가 해결되지 않으면 장기 쇠퇴가 지속되며, 중국 시장은 변동성이 크다.
다듬은 글
Jim Rogers thank you for joining us my pleasure let's go a little bit of history you teamed up in the early 70s with George Soros and a great fund got out in the early eighties quick quickly recap recapture what what what you did and how you did at such a young age well we had a successful ten years and I had always wanted to have more than one life so I set off to have more than one life I didn't want to wake up at 75 and still be looking at a computer screen I wanted to have more than one life so off I said to have more than one life we retired I was 37 and set off to have a I said off to have more than one life any motorcycle trips in the offing any any more books on exotic places the world I say I went around the world in a car 1999 to 2001 and I really haven't been on a motorcycle much since then it grieves me that you ask because you know there's nothing some of finest times of my life were on on motorcycles including the trip around the world on the motorcycle but now I'm doing other things I've got two little girls are living in Singapore which is not a great motorcycle place so now I'm doing other things I can't imagine you're speeding there speed limits 90 kilometers an hour that's not it's not a great night right and I'm not negotiable right exactly talking about Singapore when you move there you cited three dates 1807 you moved to London 1907 you've got to go to New York 2007 year in Asia specifically Singapore why well the 20th century is going was the century of the US the 19th century was the century of the UK the 21st century will be the century of Asia and it's becoming more and more evident and especially of China I wanted my children to grow up knowing Asia and speaking Mandarin I think the best skills that I can give to girls born at night in 2003 and 2008 it's to know Asian to no manners so they I couldn't do it in New York I tried I tried doing a new awkward it was not possible so there we are what what do you see is the problem with the u.s.
why main problem is the staggering debt I mean it's just we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world Steve as you you undoubtedly know but you probably read Forbes it's amazing how about how high the debt is and it's going up by leaps and bounds it's just it's my environment how fast is going up and nobody seems to understand or care what the significance and the consequences will be in it's not good it's not good news in the past we've had some rough periods I remember the malaise of the 70s and the US has come back you don't see that happening again or are we just digging the hole so deep we're not gonna be able to get her so there will be rallies the UK and tooth in 1918 was the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two but by in three generations they were bankrupt now in that period of time they had some some rallies as you probably well know they won the second world war for instance where they had some big rallies but basically they were in the club I would like to think that there's something which is going to save us I can think of some things which will give us rallies but I cannot see anything let me look at Japan and Japan at staggering internal debt there's still a creditor nation they still externally a creditor nation they still have a balance of trade surplus with the largest external debtor nation in history and the largest internal debtor nation in history will have rallies receive I don't see what can cause us to you know we peaked in perhaps the 70s we're in relative decline I don't think that's maybe you would like to debate that I don't think so I don't see that we that the relative decline will stop now in terms of investing commodities you have the Rogers global resources equity index you don't see the dollar eventually getting strong again do you think my own the dollar I actually own the dollar as we stand here I bought the dollar 15 16 months ago 72 bare market rally its market rally yeah in my view although I may buy more in the when I walk out of here I may buy more no I don't see it anything more than a little bare market rally but you know some of the other current several currencies around the world some of the others made the Miska maybe a time-saving the foreseeable future when we all of us are going to be getting rid of our paper money because it's being debased all over the world one reason I own the dollar is because everybody's panicked about to the basement are these other currencies paper money is is suspect so it's just the best house in a bad neighborhood not even sure it's the best house in a bad neighborhood but it's a good house in the bad they would for the moment at the moment getting back to to commodities what makes you bullish on commodities there's been a huge dearth of investment in productive capacity for 30 years now I mean you know the last LED smelter built in America was built in 1969 but no gigantic elephant oil fields discovered since the 1960s I can go agriculture Steve we're gonna have huge you should start an agriculture magazine because the profits in agriculture unless the observation you made about somebody majoring in public relations and agriculture yeah okay well done more people in America study public relations than steady farming we have no farmers you went to Princeton nobody you went to school with became a farmer I went to Yale nobody I went to here with became more formal let me tell you that the average age of farmers in America is 58 years old in Japan the average age is 66 in Australia it's 58 hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers commit suicide every year it's a disastrous business in the UK the highest rate of suicide is in agriculture it's been a horrible business for thirty prices have to go up have to go up a lot but we're not going to have any food at any price so unless unless you're going to become a farmer then we truly start but you have pointed out we have two hundred thousand PR graduates twenty thousand farmers coming out of our schools and you have a wonderful phrase you can't eat press releases that's exactly right you cannot eat press for you but it was actually 200,000 MBA we have coming out that's even worse we have more people doing MBAs than doing PR so no it's it's it's gonna be a huge shift in American society American culture in the places where one is going to get rich the stockbrokers are going to be driving taxis you know the smart ones will learn to drive tractors so they can work for the smart farmers the farmers are gonna be driving Lamborghinis I'm telling you you should start Forbes for me and in the 1970s we heard the same thing and it didn't happen why well farmers did make a lot of money in the 1979 lost it all in the 80s well yeah yeah but that's but actually it started before that's my point these things go in cycles there has never been any bull market which is lasted forever no bull market in the history of the world has lasted forever these commodity cycles come and go on average they've lasted eighteen to twenty years in the past I have no long idea how long this will last but it's it's not over yet thoughts on gold you were suspicious in late 2011 not without reason where does that go from here well I own gold I'm not selling my gold I'm not even hedging my gold at the moment although I'm thinking about it Gold's up eleven years in a row which is extremely unusual as you know for any asset class its correcting right now I would suspect it's going to continue to correct there's some things going on in the world I mean the Indians are coming down hard on gold and they are the largest consumer of gold in the world so it may continue to to correct if so and if it goes down further I hope I'm smart enough to buy to buy more to buy a lot more the bull market in gold is not over yet Steve going back to Asia China you have not been a big fan of stocks you are the currency how do you play China now well the best way to play China is commodities because they have to buy commodities if you've got cotton they will take you to dinner they will pay for your dinner and they'll pay you on time you don't have to worry about corporate governance or any of that kind of stuff they don't care who the head of the Federal Reserve is if you have cotton because cotton is its own world and many other commodities as well the renminbi I own the renminbi as well it's a good way to play China I don't buy Chinese shares except when they collapsed they collapsed last in November of o8 I bought more Chinese shares if and when they collapse again I'll buy more my Chinese shares for my children they're not for me now while looking at China itself can they become as the US has been a innovative economy instead of a catch-up economy are they gonna draw the real value added stuff do you see the changes coming on that as a dramatic first time I went to China 25 or 30 years ago there was one radio one TV one newspaper one way to dress one everything that's changed dramatically as you know in China now they they produce something like I don't know 20 times as many engineers every year as we do they didn't in the past it was you know it was a very close and and traumatic society an autocratic society that's changing rapidly I suspect yes some of these engineers are gonna turn out to be hotshot engineers I don't know when I don't know where about China has a long history of entrepreneurship and capitalism they've been disastrous at times in their history but they've also been spectacularly successful and sometimes in their history so teach your children Mandarin teach your grandchildren Mandarin you're not a fan of India no I'm sure did you as a matter of fact I'd love to go with it if you can only visit one country in your life Steve I would for whatever reason I would urge you to go to India there's nothing quite like it from a tourist point of view but as far as bureaucratic maze it's the worst bureaucracy in the world they don't like foreigners they don't like capitalists they don't like people making money it's a fabulous country to visit but I wouldn't I wouldn't try to do business here so what's happening in high-tech is just an outlier yeah very much so I mean you can probably name four or five companies I doubt if you can name four or five you could probably name two or three high-tech con Steve there are billion people in India we hope that somebody is successful we hope to some of them and and most of the outline outliers which other successful Indians that you know live in Europe or America very few great success stories in India itself there are they exist out of a billion people of course Japan the hell are gonna get out of this right I own the currency and when they had this tsunami I bought shares as a matter of fact that they collapsed as you know and it's always been a good thing to do when there's a huge unknown being a natural disaster and it's usually a good thing to do to buy into the market I doubt in five years I will own them I doubt if I'll own the currency or the shot so I mean Japan it's got staggering problems they've got the highest internal debt in the world and they've got a declining population I mean they've got serious problems about it India's piling on debt too I know as well I'm sure India that's one reason I'm sure it is because they've got this huge debt which for some reason they're all these bulls walking around and don't seem to understand that India has a debt to GDP ratio of 90% and they're still bullish I they don't do their homework you're going in Myanmar I'm extremely optimistic if I could put all of my money into me and Mauro I would I cannot because Steve you and I are citizens of the land of the free and in the land of the free we cannot invest in Myanmar everybody else can the Japanese that everybody's pouring into me and more except all of us from the land of the free it is it is it is so exciting it is like my in Japan and I mean I'm sorry China in 1978 it's exactly the same place it might be more exciting because it's been such a disaster such a disaster for 50 years and now they were opening up there right between India on the Left China on the right huge natural resources 60 million people disciplined hard work educated oh my gosh it's such an exciting opportunity but oh you and I can do is I can read about it in Forbes I can't do anything or else.you doing things well the other place that I'm the wild exciting things is North Korea but we can't do anything there's no market in North Korea but there's going to be a merger soon of North and South Korea and that's going to be very very exciting place then you'll have a country of 75 million people right on the border of China huge labor pool lots of natural resources in North Korea and they're gonna run circles around the Japanese the reasons the Japanese don't want it to happen is because they don't want a huge new competitor they got their own problems North Korea I wish I could find I'm looking for ways to invest I have a couple of ways but they're not you know not a great interest these are the places that I have find the most exciting but as far as stocks for the most part I'm short stocks I don't own many stocks in the world my own I own commodities I own currencies basically and you're it not even your's no that's a good idea I don't own or need no I don't know what anything injures yeah I drink the stuff I don't I don't bro it takes too long to grow it so I've had to drink it and so just to sum up the u.s.
long-term secular decline Asia certainly certainly relative secular decline there's no question about that there are we we may have a lot of oil you know when the UK had a big rally when bankrupt in the 70s it had a big rally because the North Sea oil started flowing I know Morgan Thatcher takes credit for it it was a North Sea there were no one cos started flowing in 1979 same here Margaret Thatcher came to power if you give me the largest oil field in the world I'll show you an extremely good time as you can imagine we may have the largest oil field in the world with all this oil shale and naturally our shale gas if they can solve them environmental problems that would cause a huge rally in the US we're very good at agriculture or have been that could cause a big rally in the US so don't give up on the US I own the dollar I'm a US taxpayer US citizen so don't give up on the US but it's I'm afraid it's nothing more than a secular rally because we are the largest debtor nation in the world and nobody cares except I mean nobody sent me and you I know you care but other than two of us nobody seems to care so why aren't you running for president no no I do better than I did that's why I'm not because I know I wouldn't and second of all I mean I you think I want to spend my time being nice to people I don't want to be nice to you tried that I can't imagine it's a lot of fun going out day to day being nice to people you don't want to be nice to and I don't want to do that Jimmy thank you thank you Steve good fun as usual
Comments 0