저자: 짐로저스 · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 2012~2020년 전 세계 중앙은행의 동시 대규모 통화 발행이 역사상 처음인 거품을 만들고 있으며 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이라고 주장합니다. 미국 경제는 개선되지 않았고 다우지수 신고가는 중앙은행 유동성의 결과라고 봅니다. 통화전쟁(근린궁핍화)이 심화되고 있다고 경고합니다. 자신은 미국 주식을 거의 보유하지 않고 통화와 원자재(은, 쌀 등 실물자산)를 보유하며, 일본·러시아 등 일부 주식을 보유한다고 밝힙니다. 셰일가스 붐은 생산량이 빠르게 감소해 미국 경제의 게임체인저가 아니라고 평가하며, 천연가스를 직접 투자 대상으로 언급합니다. 시추기 수는 1년 반 사이 75% 감소했다고 합니다. 중국은 주택 거품을 완전히 해소하지 못했고 위안화 태환이 이루어지기 전까지 인플레이션 문제가 해결되지 않을 것이라고 봅니다. 중국에서 금 구매 열풍이 불고 있다고 언급합니다. 금 가격은 장기 강세장이 끝나지 않았으며, 35~40% 조정 시 1,200달러까지 갈 수 있다고 말하지만 그 가능성은 낮다고 합니다. 금이 1,600달러 아래일 때 소량 매수하고 있다고 밝힙니다. 금과 은 가격 조작 음모론에는 회의적입니다. 인도 정부의 금 수입 비판과 같은 정치적 리스크로 금 가격이 하락할 수 있다고 언급합니다. 청년 투자자에게는 본인이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고, 인터넷·TV의 투자 조언을 맹신하지 말라고 조언합니다. 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이며 아시아(중국·일본·한국 등)가 주요 채권국이라 아시아 쪽 투자 관심을 권합니다. 산업금속은 중국의 재고 축적 중단으로 최근 약세지만, 원자재 장기 강세장과 공급 측면의 강세는 계속될 것으로 봅니다. 농산물에 산업금속보다 더 긍정적이라고 말합니다.
다듬은 글
mr. Rogers thank you very much for taking the time I really appreciate the opportunity why did it be here Johan let's first talk about the United States the US economy somehow limps along there's no cross dynamic at least in my opinion yet we got the Dow Jones Industrial Average go into a new all-time high it's the flood of central bank liquidity looking for it turns creating a new gigantic bubble in front of us and it's the first time in recorded history where you've have all major central bank's printing money at the same time you know the Japanese said in December we will print unlimited amounts that's their word unlimited amounts of money so the American central bank said we can we can print more - then the English said well we will print more and did you know Europeans are printing more so this has never happened before obviously there's an artificial something going on because it's all based on printed money staggering amounts of printed money this is going to end very badly do you see that we were in any foreseeable future you go back to a more conservative approach to monetary policy or will this just go even more money printing it even more money printing how high do you envisage that sure I thought in 2012 we would go back to some more conventional monetary policy but unfortunately it's it's all getting worse they're all trying to top each other this as soon as the Japanese do something somebody else does it every every time somebody does something then another one jumps in and says we will top you everybody's trying to drive their currency down and this is this is not good in the 1930s as you know everybody tried to beggar-thy-neighbor now we're all trying to beggar that currency this isn't this is this is absurd so are you buying United States stocks and the Dow transit Australian in any sector no no I don't have you know I don't think I have any United States stocks if I do it's very few it's so few I can't even remember no no I own some currencies I own commodities because normally one of there's a lot of money printing you protect yourself by owning real assets whether it's silver or rice or whatever it happens to be because if the world economy gets better commodity should do better because of shortages if the world economy doesn't do better then they'll print more money I own some shares in Japan I own some shares and Russia I do on some shares around the world but mainly I've invested in other things there is some sort of shale gas boom for the production of gas and oil from shale reserves in the United States but if when the Chinese have been buying bhutya buyers well is that a sector which is interesting for next years for an investor well if I were going to invest I would invest in the natural gas itself because natural gas has come down a lot the the natural gas boom you know there was a huge amount of drilling but unfortunately what we're finding now is that the number of drilling rigs has gone down by 75% in the last year and a half because these wells are very short-lived wells and they're not so profitable it turns out it's all sounded great at first also the number of pumps to keep these wells going and is controlled by 50 percent in the last year because it's just not the Bonanza everybody thought the US Department of Energy has projected the natural gas production will be up a little bit this year but it will be down in 2014 so the press is full of all this talk about America is going to be energy and to be independent at cetera et cetera out there in the ground not there close to the ground it's not happening quite the same way that the PR would have it and apparently for oil and the oil hasn't been going as long as the natural gas but the wells also there was apparently decline production by 38% in the first year so right everybody's running around doing all these drilling because it's so wonderful but the production we're finding drops pretty quickly so this is no real game-changer for the US economy so with a structural shift down in prices and everything will be good from that standpoint is that going to be it's wonderful if it were true and if it's if it does last if for these wells if we can solve the problem some maybe it's and maybe it's a problem of nature maybe we cannot solve the problem but if the problem could be solved sure then there's a there's a lot of shale gas in Europe there's a lot of shale there's a lot of shale gas everywhere China you Russia Australia no it could be could it could bring the price of energy down a lot for everybody in the world and then we would all be much much better off now this is not going to happen overnight because in Europe they haven't even started yet in right most of the world they haven't even started yet so it would take a while for the production to come on stream but if if I experienced in America's accurate it's not a game changer at all it's a short-term kind of thing but it's not it's not long-lived enough so when it comes to China they got whole different problems than Japan for example Japan has deflationary problem they have low growth in China they have potentially too much growth and high inflation so they're trying to to fight inflation are they going to be successful especially in the in the housing sector they said okay we're in sorry about that well China has been trying to do something about its housing bubble which had been going on for the last decade and every two or three years they try to tighten up and cool it off and they do but they never stay tight long enough at least in my view they never killed the housing bubble and there they've loosened up again will they solve the inflation problem I don't in my view not until they make the currency convertible one way to solve the problem would make the currency convertible then prices could adjust money could move in and out of the country and then you would right now all the money's trapped in China so everybody puts it into real assets or into housing and so it causes prices to go up if the money could go in and out then it wouldn't have that problem will they solve the problem is someday they'll make the the housing make the currency convertible by 2012 they'll make the currency convertible and everything will be okay is that all right you know I don't know why they haven't done it by now they should have done it by now but they have not it's the Chinese central bank buying gold right now well I don't know if the Chinese central bank is but the Chinese are if you go to China you will see shops everywhere for gold now which did not exist 10 years ago you will see ads on the Chinese TV encouraging people to buy gold and people are buying gold is the central bank buying gold I don't know I suspect they are they say they've increased their gold holdings but they don't tell me maybe they tell maybe they tell you all but they don't tell me I read a piece of news piece I guess it was from from The Wall Street Journal writing that the CFTC is about to start an official investigation that there was the LIBOR interest rate manipulation they say that after that it might be possible that even gold and silver prices are being manipulated on the London gold fixing or something around that my question is do you think that gold and silver prices are somehow been manipulated well I don't I have been reading about this conspiracy and silver and gold for at least 25 years now I'm skeptical because with LIBOR was just a few people saying this is the answer but with gold and silver trading its traded on independent exchanges is traded in Japan in China and Australia you know it's Europe it's America it would have to be an enormous conspiracy for them to pull that up maybe it is maybe it is but I'm skeptical myself so do you do you still when it comes to a price outlook for gold and silver do you think that well you would not rule out he said in the past you would not rule out gold prices to go much lower to 1200 I guess was a price target you named given that do you think that this would be a potential end in the bull in the bull run for gold no I don't think the bull market will end and go what I said was that normally the all assets correct 30 or 40 percent every year or two or three it's just the way markets work gold has only been down 30% once in the past 12 years and even then it ended up for the year this is extremely unusual for any market so what I said was that if go were to correct 35 or 40 percent would go to 1200 if no I don't go needs to correct its supposed to correct every two or three years it hasn't which worries me if it did if it did I hope I'm smart enough to buy more it should but that doesn't mean it will it may go to 2400 before it goes to 1200 so have you stopped buying silver and gold right now because you expect the correction to come I periodically by go when it goes down like as it's under 1600 now I bought a little bit more but no I'm not a big buy of gold or silver but I do about it occasion when it goes down a lot just to keep my foot in the keep my foot in the door so a lot yep you know right now the the Indians the Indian government front politicians are blaming India's problems on gold Gold is their second largest import into the country they are the largest consumer of gold in the world if the Indian politicians do something it would be foolish but politicians do foolish things all the time it would drive the price that that would cause gold to go down if something strange happens in the world it could cause price of gold go down if it happens I hope I'm smart enough to buy more because the gold bull market is not over yet not not for a long time so for the younger people are watching this interview what would you say to to a 25 year old today how should she or he invest in today's environment a negative real interest rates there is volatility all around there are all these uncertainties how should she or he react in this environment and nobody should invest in anything unless they themselves know a lot about it I mean if you watch somebody on the internet telling you what to invest in you're gonna go broke you know that's a very bad way to invest she should invest only in what she herself knows a lot about if she doesn't know a lot about something she just keep her money in the bank until something comes along where she sees great opportunity and invest listening to some guy on the television or in the newspaper of the magazine or off the internet you're gonna go bankrupt investing that way don't listen to me maybe listen to you or maybe listen to you and you're your own network but don't listen to me yes boss ago you can get investment ideas but don't listen to me do you think that on the long term we have a huge debt problem so that again on the long term thinking about the long term we have got a huge debt problem in United States in Europe and Japan how is that going to play out how is that going to be solved un that the little that would the woman we were talking about before her investing she should move to Asia you know America's the largest yeah I did my daughter's live in Asia my daughter speak Chinese the largest debtor nation in the history of the world is the United States you know they're huge debtors in the world you know whether you are you can look out the window and see some of them we just look east and you'll see them and look South there are a lot of big debtors but they're not in Asia the largest creditor nations in the world or China Japan Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore Japan has huge internal debt which is a serious problem but but they're the second largest international creditor in the world so yeah gigantic debt problems that you're going to cause us all terrible problems in the West and in Asia so what she should do is go go west go west to whichever way you look at go east go where wind up in Asia my last question is about industrial metals there somehow correlated to economic activity they have been going down at a time when stocks went up what's going on there that's an extremely good question what seems to be happening is that the Chinese have stopped stockpiling out of the working of their stockpiles but the longer term bull market in commodities is not over you know you recently have had Rio Tinto and v8 the big metals companies cutting back and canceling their capital spending programs because they're all very worried so they just means that the bull market the supply part of the bull market anyway is going to go on for a while I'm more optimistic about agriculture than I am industrial metals but I own them all so mr.
Rogers thank you very much for this interesting insects it's my pleasure to end any time
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