저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 미중 무역전쟁이 결국 다시 악화되어 약세장을 촉발할 것이라고 봄. 시장 전반: 현재 미국 강세장이 역사상 가장 길지만 끝나지 않을 이유는 없다고 하면서도, 2008년처럼 부채가 쌓여 있어 다음 약세장은 끔찍할 것이라고 경고함. 약세장은 보통 아무도 보지 않는 곳(라트비아, 터키, 베네수엘라 등)에서 먼저 시작된다고 설명. 약세장 시작 시점은 2020년일 수도 있다고 봄. 무역전쟁: 트럼프 대통령이 무역전쟁이 좋다고 믿고 있어 나중에 미국 경기가 나빠지면 그 탓을 무역전쟁에 돌릴 것이라고 주장. 무역전쟁에서 이익을 보는 사람은 소수라고 봄. 금: 과거 보유분은 그대로 갖고 있지만 최근 몇 년간 큰 폭으로 사지는 않음. 금이 더 큰 폭으로 조정받으면 대량 매수 기회를 기다리는 중. 버블이 형성되면 팔겠지만 지금은 아니라고 봄. 은: 역사적으로 금보다 더 많이 하락해 있으나 지금은 본격적으로 사지 않는다고 함. 현재 매수 대상: 러시아 주식 일부를 매수 중이라고 밝힘. 베네수엘라 투자를 원하지만 미국 시민권자 신분상 불가능하다고 함. 투자자 조언: 매우 조심하고 경계하라고 권고. 공매도는 일부 가지고 있지만 본격적인 공매도는 아니라고 함. 중국·북한 관련 트럼프의 조치는 시장에 호재가 될 수 있으나 강세장 막바지에 가까울 때 나올 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
well it's been far too long so I thought we'd start with a market overview here we've had a lot of action this summer we just wrapped the g20 and really the trade war talk and narrative between US and China has taken center stage how do you think this plays out is there a resolution anytime soon well yes they're gonna announce something it's gonna make us all feel good but that's one reason the markets are rallying now but later this year or next year when the economies around the world are getting bad mr.
Trump is gonna blame everything on the foreigners the Chinese the Germans the Japanese everybody the in the trade world will come back Daniela and then it's all over so all the market euphoria is just all over welcome to ballmart gets over you know we've it's been the longest in American history we have not had a bear market it doesn't mean the county don't go on another ten years it doesn't have to end just because it's the longest but we have huge amounts of debt we had a problem in 2008 because of too much debt since then the dead skyrocketed the next time we have a bear market is going to be horrible compounded by too much debt and by trade war because mr.
Trump is gonna come back mr. Trump believes in his soul and his brain that trade wars are good and that he can win trade was he mr. Trump knows he's smarter than everybody else so he knows he can run a trade war and it will come back strong when the American economy gets bad eventually he's gonna blame it on trade trend the trade war and it's gonna be terrible oh that's an interesting perspective is there any good in trade wars Jim well I have never found any good in it maybe you have and certainly some people benefit from trade wars but the great and vast majority of people in the world have never benefited or from a trade war other than a small minority who sometimes benefit but if you know of a good trade war please tell me because nobody none of the stop us no no you're the expert here Jim much much more than I am but I'm happy you brought up the point about the recession because as you noted this month actually marks the longest period of time the US economy has gone without a recession we're seeing the SMP at all-time highs longest bold market in American history now we know you've been calling for a stock market crash for for quite some time now so is it finally going to give is 2019 the year Jim that we see a major correction here for certainly by the end of 2019 I would think the things would be ok but they don't have to end daniela there's no rule that says just because it's been 10 years or 12 years it has to end except for the fact that the deaths worldwide are building up now daniela the way these things have always worked in 2007 iceland went bankrupt but most people had no clue about that and didn't know or care and then later though ireland went bankrupt few more people noticed little while later out to that mayor stearns went bankrupt few more people started noticing few weeks later northern rock went bankrupt then people started catching on eventually Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and by the end it was on the evening news all over the world and everybody knew that there was a problem bear markets always work that way they start where nobody's looking in a few months or whatever later everybody catches on it's already started we're having problems in some places now where nobody notices nobody cares that Latvia went bankrupt nobody cares of turkeys collapsing Venezuela some Indian banks you know people don't notice or care because they're not significant but eventually we're all gonna notice and we're all gonna care of course then it's too late well that's a really interesting point and a good comparison to oh hm and I want to talk about one of my favorite topics now gold and last time you were on you were saying how the metal might actually turn into a bubble and as you know we've been having a very good summer so far for the metal we've hit high as we and seen in six years after being in no-man's land for so long so what do you make of the rally and the excitement that were finally seeing back in the gold space now well I still own all the gold I've ever owned but I still have not bought any serious go for some time I am still waiting for the chance to stock up in a big way I yes go round up a lot mate six years Hoss it's been coming back down coming down smartly since then but I'm still not a major buyer of gold Danijela if gold goes up and I never buy another house it's okay I'll be I'll be happy but I'm hoping that there's a great chance to buy lots and lots of gold before this is over and I know you've always told me this in the past that you would never buy goals at these levels so during these rallies you wouldn't touch gold but would you be selling a part of your metal here no no no I I've never sold any if gold turns into a bubble again then obviously you have to sell bubbles I hope it doesn't because I want my kids to own my gold everybody should own some gold as an insurance policy of nothing else if and when a bubble develops and it probably will it probably will down y'all because the world's facing gigantic problems in the next few years if that happens and I'll have to sell my gold because you you cannot you can but you're crazy to hold hold on to any asset through a bubble once the bubble comes I'll have to sell but banan yo don't worry that's still awake but we're still a long way away it's not happening this week don't worry Jim what about silver prices the metal just so depressed would you be stalking up on silver now well if I had to buy one silver gold I'd rather buy silver silvers more depressed on a historic basis than gold I'm not buying either in any serious way y'all buy these things and give them as gifts to people but no I am not buying serious silver or gold until there's a very sharp collapse and it may not happen but don't worry Daniella I still have silver and gold so is there anything you are buying right now Jim well I'm buying a let's see a Russian the Russian share I'm buying which is collapsed you know when I can find serious disasters I try to I would like to be investing in Venezuela but I cannot I'm a citizen with the land of the free Danielle and we're not very free in America anymore so we're not allowed you probably can invest in in Venezuela I'd like to I have learned that when countries collapse normally if you invest when the country has a catastrophe you make a whole lot of money over the next four or five years but I cannot do anything in Venezuela now Jim finally before I wrap and let you go many of our viewers and investors are eager to hear your your thoughts and points of view so what are you telling investors right now what should they be watching well which FS is what I would always tell be very careful we're in precarious times I've said we've had the longest bull market in American history I don't see an end to it yet except I do see signs in other countries that we're starting to see problems developing I would suspect that sometime in the next few weeks or months the but the bear market will come but it may be 2020 I mean it doesn't have to happen this year I am NOT I'm not short in any significant way I have a few shorts I always do but no no I'm not selling short but I would urge people to be very very alert and aware of what's going on Danijela that could be great news coming if mr.
Trump does something with the Chinese the markets will love it if he does something with North Korea the markets will love it but those would probably be near the end of the bull market but I don't see that happening yet not yet all right well you heard it here first Jim Rogers I always appreciate it thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us today it's always great fun Danielle let's do it again someday all right thank you so much and if you have any comments or questions you can tweet me at Daniela come Boni we'll see you tomorrow
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