저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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멍거는 장기 복리와 소수의 좋은 기회에 집중하는 투자 철학을 강조한다. 분산투자는 지식이 부족할 때 표준 결과를 얻기 위한 수단일 뿐이라고 본다. 그는 자신의 투자 방식은 확신이 있는 소수 종목에만 투자하는 것이며, 대부분의 투자 전문가들이 많은 종목을 아는 척하는 것을 비판한다. 기대 수익률에 대해서는 미국 주식의 장기 실질 수익률이 과거보다 낮아질 수 있다고 보며, 실질 수익률 2~3% 수준도 가능하다고 언급한다. 따라서 기대치를 낮추라고 조언한다. 중국 우량 기업이 미국 우량 기업보다 저평가되어 있어 중국에 투자 기회가 있다고 본다. 다만 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않는다. 자사주 매입에 대해서는 주가가 너무 높을 때 자사주를 사는 것은 대부분 나쁜 결정이라고 비판하며, 정치권이 기업 경영에 개입하는 것에는 신중한 입장이다. 결론적으로 과도한 지출과 질투를 피하고, 드물게 오는 좋은 기회를 기다려 집중 투자하라는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
I had a grandfather was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a pioneer he came out to Iowa with no money but youth and health and took it away from the Indians he fathered a black boy he was a captain Blackhawk Wars and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town on the bank highly regarded huge family a very happy life and he had the attitude having come out to Iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and that we stayed there until that blacktop so created the modern rich civilization and some of the best land in the world his attitude was the favored life like his when you were located in the right place he just got a few opportunities if you lived to be about 90 and the trick in coming out well was that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren around him all summer and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but I'm not my mother's natural imitator and I knew grandpa was right and so I always knew from the very first boy the opportunities that were important that we're gonna come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude that they have and a big investment counseling thing they think if they study a million things they can know a million things and that and of course the result isn't almost nobody can outperform an index where as I said here was my daily journal stock my Berkshire Hathaway stock my holdings of Lee Lewis Asian fun my Costco stock and of course I'm performing everybody 95 years old a friend we never have a transaction and the answer is I'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing you want the standard result and not be embarrassed of course you're going to add the universe of money nobody's entitled with a lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that two and two equals four and but the investment professionals think they're helping you by arranging a dirt Dirk diversification maybe it could diversify a portfolio and or a computer for that matter and but the whole trick of the game is have have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get a few opportunities that's enough carry on three securities and JP Morgan Chase owns 100 you know what's wrong why no he says he lived a growing town and you owned stock and three of the best enterprises in the town isn't that diversified enough the answer is of course it is they're all wonderful places and that is - could you like stories here's an apocryphal story that has very instructive a young man comes to visit Mozart Mozart pieces I want to break symphonies and most services how old are you in the man Psalm 23 says you're too young to write symphonies he said that Mozart he says you were writing symphonies when you were ten years old yes but I wasn't asking other people how to do it now there's another mozart story here's the greatest musical tell him maybe that ever lived and what was his life like it was bitterly unhappy and he died young that's the life of Mozart what the hell did Mozart do to screw it up to make himself what he did to things that are guaranteed to create a lot of misery he overspent his income scrupulously that's number one that is really stupid and that other thing was to expose jealousies and resentments if you'll spend or spend your incoming be full of jealousy and resentments you can have a lousy unhappy life and die young all you've got to do is learn from Mozart you can also learn from that young man was asking Mozart how to write symphony the matter is that not everybody can learn everything some people are way the hell better and of course no matter hard you try there always some guy that cheats more some guy or gal and my house is so what do it does any of us need to be the very top of the whole world it's ridiculous people do like their guard is amazing is the abilities an enormous mausoleums I think they figure they want people to walk by that mausoleum and say gosh I wish I were in there anyway you can see we've had some fun as we go along and it works so well but if you actually figure out how many decisions were made in the history of the daily journal Corporation or the history of Berkshire Hathaway it wasn't very many per year that were meaningful it's a game of being there all the time and recognizing the rare opportunity when it comes and recognizing the normal human allotment is to not have very many now it's a very confident bunch of people who sell securities who act as though they've got an endless supply of wonderful opportunities those people are the equivalent of the race dragged out they're not even respectable it's not a good way to live your life to pretend to know a lot of stuff you don't know one pretend astonishing and my advice to you is avoid those people but not if you're running a stock brokerage firm you need them but it's not the right way to rank make money and this business of controlling the costs of living simply and that was the secret how much money born mine had tiny little bits of money we always under spend our incomes and we invested well you know if you end up rich it's not very complicated and now there is a part of life which is how do you scramble out of your mistakes without them costing too much and we've done some of that too if you look at Berkshire Hathaway think of its founding businesses a doom department store doomed New England textile company Doom trading stamp company out of that came Berkshire Hathaway no we handled those losing hands pretty well when we bought into the Murray cheaply but of course that's came from changing our ways and getting into the better businesses and it isn't that we were so good at doing things that were difficult we were waiting things that were difficult hello mr.
monk Rahman your right eye you speak about the importance of fishing in waters with ample fish if you were starting out today what you know see would you be fishing in other than a China of course well other than China but if there's one good place in the world that's more than my share there are others I'm sure but it's hard for me to believe that they get better for the mongers in China I can't help you I thought my problem you'll have to saw yours by the way the water is fine in China and some very smart people are waiting in and in due course I think more will wait in the great companies of China are cheaper than the great companies in the United States hi mr.
Munger my friend Miguel and I were from Barcelona and I have a question for you regarding long-term investment and compound interest so I try to remember if it was your Einstein that said that compound interest was the strongest force on earth and in the last few years with very low interest rates out there it's been difficult to find opportunities for having a long term compound interest based strategy so beyond investing in Berkshire body investing or index funding where would you invite us to find opportunities for long term investment where compound interest is really that horse my advice for a seeker of compound interest that works ideally is to reduce your expectations because I think it's going to be tougher for a while and it helps to have realistic expectations makes you less crazy and I think that you know they say that common stocks for me aftermath of the Great Depression which was thor's in english-speaking world in hundreds of years to the present time may be an index is produced ten percent that's pre inflation after inflation and it may be seven percent or something and guessing seven in ten in terms of those consequences are just hugely dramatic over that long period of time and if that's seven in real terms that may achieve starting in the perfect period through the greatest boom in history starting now it could well be three percent or two percent in real terms it's not unthinkable you'd have 5% returns and three percent inflation or some gas becomes like that and so the ideal way to cope with that is that if it handles if that happens I can have a happy life because why should you be happy in spite of the fact that it was the right generation and now beyond that when it gets more difficult how should you do it well the answer is B because it's gonna be very difficult you should work at it oh it gets you a 6% for a lifetime of work instead of five you should be cheerful about it you want to hit it out of the park easily you should talk to Jim Cramer hi charlie my name is Julia LaRoche last year we saw a record amount of share repurchases and now we're hearing rhetoric out of Washington DC specifically legislation to curb stock buybacks what's your take on stock buybacks and do you think politicians should be telling companies what to do thank you so much well generally speaking I'm restrained in my enthusiasm for politicians telling corporations what they should do but I will say this when it was a very good idea for companies to buy back their stock they didn't do very much and when the stocks got so high-priced and it's frequently a bad idea they're doing a lot welcome to adult life this is the way it is but it's questionable at the present levels whether or not it was smart was Eddie Lambert's hard to buy back so much no and there's a lot of that kind of mistake that's been
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