저자: ChamathPalihapitiya외 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 FTX 붕괴 이후 암호화폐 시장 전망을 다루며, 비트코인이 추가 하락해 12,000~13,000달러까지 밀릴 수 있다는 분석을 소개하지만 발언자들의 직접적인 가격 예측은 뚜렷하지 않다. [FTX 사태 배경 및 경고 신호] Chamath는 SBF(샘 뱅크먼-프리드)를 처음 만났을 때부터 신뢰도가 낮다고 판단했고, 투자 은행들의 평가와 달리 자금 여력이 없다고 예측했다고 밝혔다. FTX 매출은 약 10억 달러 수준이었는데 알라메다 등을 통해 막대한 유동성과 정치권 기부를 하는 점이 이해되지 않았다고 지적했다. [거버넌스 및 투자 조건] Chamath 측이 이사회 구성, 듀얼 클래스 구조, 관계사 거래 보증 등을 요구했으나 거절당했다고 언급했다. [규제 전망] Chamath는 SEC가 유사 구조의 토큰 및 토큰 세일을 면밀히 들여다볼 것이라고 전망했다. [Brian Armstrong 의견] 이번 사태는 일시적 차질이며 미국이 암호화폐 규제 틀을 마련해야 한다고 주장했다. [시장 전망] 비트코인이 FTX 파산 여파로 약 1.5% 하락 중이며, 일부 분석가는 12,000~13,000달러 바닥을 예상한다고 소개했다. [종목별 언급] 비트코인: 하락 충격 후 12,000~13,000달러 바닥 가능성(분석가 의견 인용). 이더리움·도지: 발언자가 콜드월렛 보관을 권장하며 긍정적 언급, 구체적 가격 전망은 없음. [출연자 전망] Chamath는 SBF 사태를 예견했다고 강조했으나 향후 가격 방향은 명확히 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
I've never heard of him, but then a ton of people were telling me he had huge amounts of money he wanted to invest in the Twitter deal. I talked to him for about half an hour, and my butt meter was redlining, so my impression was, "This dude..." Then I met everyone, including major investment banks, and everyone was talking about him like he's walking on water and has a zillion dollars. That's not my impression. My prediction to the investment banks, some of which you've seen in texts because it came out in a court case, was that this dude just has something wrong with him and doesn't actually have capital. Anyone who came through that was my prediction, and that's definitely what happened.
[Intro: Billionaire investors Chamath and Elon Musk giving their reaction to the recent collapse of FTX. The crash in Bitcoin has been a significant event in the crypto space as well. Chamath says there were warning signs, as well as a massive amount of negligence that most weren't aware of. He talks about the Silicon Valley venture firms that were involved and how unsuspecting investors were the ones left holding the bag when the crypto tokens were dumped. He believes the SEC is going to take a very close look at many token sales taking place around this time that have the same framework as FTX, with enormous capital and a lack of governance. It's no wonder people are just looking the other way. Let's listen to this interview with Chamath and Elon Musk as they react to the crash in Bitcoin, as well as the current state of the crypto market and what we can expect next.]
I'm not an expert on crypto, but I think this probably is the future for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Doge. I can't really speak to the others. But if you have one of those three in a cold wallet, not on an exchange, my guess is it works out well. Maybe some of the others too, but I don't know about the others. If you have crypto, you should have it in a directly accessible cold wallet, not on an exchange. That would be wise.
Is Twitter looking at launching a crypto wallet? We're looking at a lot of things, but a crypto wallet is not soon. Maybe something down the road will be open to it, but right now Twitter just has to get the basics right. We want to elevate the voices of people who are directly involved in something and often have a better understanding of the situation than a journalist who doesn't understand the space and isn't there or isn't super familiar with it. You can see this when you read about anything in a newspaper and you actually know the details of what happened. The perspective in the newspaper is often really very wrong. And that's not just true for things you know about; it's true of truthful things in general.
Tell us about SBF. I've spent time with him, I've met him a bunch of times, and I have to say I did not see this coming. He appeared to me to be a very bright, credible, competent person, perhaps a bit young, perhaps a bit reckless at times, but not unethical, and not committing fraud. I definitely did not see that. If I look back to see whether there were any warning signs I should have thought twice about, one thing I noticed was that in 2021 Coinbase had a good year. We did seven billion in revenue and four billion in positive EBITDA, and we became a public company at that time. FTX did about one billion in revenue. I knew how much money we had for our venture budget and the different investments we wanted to make, and I knew their revenue, and I had to scratch my head a bunch of times. I was like, where is this guy getting all this liquidity? He was buying nine percent of Robinhood, he was putting a billion dollars into this, and he was donating to all these politicians. It did not make sense to me where he was getting all this cash. People kept telling me, "Oh, his market maker Alameda is just printing cash." I guess, okay. It seems like a conflict of interest to own an exchange and a market maker, which is why we haven't done it, but more power to him, I guess. I was surprised I didn't speak up. I can't explain the psychology of it at this point, whether he's a pathological liar or whether he started off good and somehow under the pressure of this whole thing went bad. But you can go watch the interviews: he's lying to people about why he's bailing out Voyager and BlockFi. He knew at that time, most likely, that they were not solvent, and Alameda was not solvent. That's where he crossed a major line in my book.
I mean, story after story here: SBF was going to create this billion-dollar philanthropy to save the world and improve humanity's long-term prospects, the number two donor to the entire Democratic Party, and on and on. Quite frankly, what this shows is, if you want to know what effective altruism means, it means you steal other people's money while bragging about saving the world, while taking a big chunk for yourself. That's what it means. Who did SBF give all this money to? He was touted as one of the future biggest donors to the Democratic Party. If you want signals, there are some pretty big signals here. Number one, he said he's going to donate a billion to the Democratic Party, and he kept touting this effective altruism, save-the-world stuff. Why do you need to do that unless you're reputation laundering and trying to buy political protection? Come on. Don't you think that was a little bit of a signal?
I'll tell you an even more explicit signal. He pitched us in that 17-billion-dollar round, and I did a Zoom with him. After the Zoom I'm like, this doesn't make much sense, but I'll have my team do some work. We did some work and sent him a two-page deck saying here are our recommendations for taking the next step. One was the formation of a board. The second was the creation of dual-class stock. The third was some reps and warranties around affiliated transactions and related-party transactions. The person who worked there called us back and, literally, I'm not kidding, said "go yourself" was, quote-unquote, the response to us. We're like, okay, so that was the easy decision, but message received. Message received. I still thought, okay, I'll just put that in the bucket of these guys being unbelievably arrogant and smug. But, Brian, I thought what you thought, which is maybe it's because they've created some money-making machine in the Bahamas, and so they have that level of confidence.
But then to see this thing to the extent it is now, we're only scratching the surface, guys. We're going to find that stuff every day. The platform is going to be crazy. But, Brian, to the question I asked before about the SEC and what should happen, you said, "I want to pick up what you said, which is the SEC doesn't seem motivated." Why is the SEC, in your mind, not motivated?
Well, I think you're right. I hope they use this as a moment to come together and help local companies being built here in the U.S. end up in a better place. I do believe, David, you said it right: it is a political issue at this point. There's going to be a major impetus to get clarity here in the U.S., and hopefully to help build the companies here in the U.S. that are going to serve the rest of the world and every major financial hub. So we're committed to building that together with regulators around the world. Crypto is here to stay. This is a temporary setback, but I'm here to keep building and make this thing happen. The most important thing at this point, Brian, is that the United States makes a decision: do we want to be in crypto? Do we want to have a say in this, and create a regulatory framework that entrepreneurs like yourself can deal with?
One thing is clear: the collateral damage from this recent crash in cryptocurrency will be felt for weeks and months to come. Bitcoin is currently down nearly 1.5 percent as a result of the FTX bankruptcy, which has caused market chaos and risk-off sentiment. Many analysts believe Bitcoin will reach the bottom soon, at 12,000 to 13,000, which is a likely scenario given how much panic there is in the crypto market right now. What do you guys think about Chamath and Elon Musk's sentiment on the current state of the crypto market and where we're headed next? Comment below.
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