저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 경제는 금리·세율 여건상 7%대 성장에서 8%대 '열망적 성장'으로 올릴 여지가 크다고 봄. 시장 밸류에이션은 높지만 분산투자로 대응하면 되며, 현재 이익·금리 환경은 큰 문제가 아니라고 평가. 유가 하락·지정학 완화 등 순풍 언급. 5년간 연 12~14% 복리 수익 기회로 제시. 인도의 국방·국제적 위상 상승도 성장 요인으로 언급.
다듬은 글
It's been a year, and now there are four more years left. What special should this government do in the next four years, in terms of the economy and the market? It's a complex matter. But from an economic perspective, I think this is the greatest opportunity to push growth, not by a little.
I'm not talking about 9 or 10 percent. Let's make it seven into eight, meaning eight is enough. Even eight is too many; every half point is massive. When you pay tax and see what happens: the government runs on tax, that's correct. But if the tax base is at 6.5 percent of GDP, then at 7 percent you get about 20 percent extra tax. If the tax rises by just 1 percent, your tax collection increases significantly, and once it does, government expenditure also starts increasing significantly.
In infrastructure, there can be a huge boom. So by pushing that growth, we will shoot for a little bit of aspirational growth. This time, look at what the Governor said in his statement: we will shoot for aspirational growth. That word is perfect, "aspirational growth." No one can measure it exactly, but it means they want higher growth, higher than 7 percent.
Earlier, the Governor often felt ashamed to talk about growth, saying "it's not my job, I have to control inflation." But this Governor is moving toward aspirational growth. So whatever has to be done to increase growth, let us now look at it from the market perspective.
Is there anything negative left in the market, when right now everyone sees everything as good? We're talking about our India. Outside, there are problems, but in India, is there something to fear? Yes, there is a risk in the market; anything can happen. You should always be wary of the unknown risks we don't know about. Earnings are high, valuations are high. If you go and buy at these levels, you will definitely get hurt.
But I don't call that a risk. If you buy something at a high price and its price falls, that's not what I call risk. So what is risk, then? Diversification is the only free lunch in the stock market. Keep your portfolio diversified, and you can't drown. Diversification will save you.
If your diversified portfolio sees a 10 or 20 percent correction, especially a correction after a rise, that's a problem. Right now the market is correcting again. But I don't think the current earnings environment or the interest rate environment is causing much trouble.
This is your opportunity to earn 12, 13, 14 percent compounded in the market over the next five years. What's the second point? There will be some tailwind in the meantime. What is a tailwind? It never comes after giving notice. For example, the price of oil fell by $15. Suddenly, such things happen. You have seen a lot of geopolitical tension affecting the economy.
It seemed both sides' attacks were over, and then we should move on the path of world peace. But there's no sign of that. Mr. Trump is trying to find a way to stop the war on both sides. We have forgotten that the fighting has been going on for two or three years. How long will we keep fighting? The entire environment will be such that we just do defence production. Everyone has formed alliances, NATO, India, China, America, which means all the defence factories are running at full speed. What kind of atmosphere will this suddenly be?
You should learn from us. We ended the fight within two or three days, and the work was also completed. Meanwhile, others have been trying for two years with no results.
So I think this environment, well, what else is there? India has remained an island, a kind of center of peace. Everything is fine here. That Pakistan episode was very forceful and unnecessary, but it showed that there is a lot of peace in India. We'll disturb it a little bit. This is your chance.
Another thing: whatever happened is not in anyone's hands. But after this, whatever India has shown has established another kind of power. We have converted adversity into opportunity, proving what we are building. We will not cross the LoC, and yet you give jobs.
That's what I'm saying: the biggest thing is the rise of India as a formidable power. Reputation is created for everything. We build brand equity in the global economy. So I think this is a very good time to convert this into growth. The RBI has also done so, and now growth will go to 8 or 8.5 percent. How much earnings will come from that?
I'm telling you: buy this and sit quietly. You may be a little worried that consumption might increase a little. Yes. That might bring some growth back. Taxes should be reduced a bit, right? This is what you want. Now look, our understanding is limited. It's a very complex subject. Sir, it's not ours; ours and yours, limited, isn't ours at all. But as we've seen, tax collection is very good, so now the time is coming when you should give something back to the consumer.
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