저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 모디 정부 3기 체제는 연합정부이지만 안정적이며, 인도는 고성장국으로 순풍이 지속된다고 봄. 유가는 공급 과잉과 사우디의 공급 확대로 65~75달러 박스권이 예상되고, 이는 인도에 유리한 환경. 유가 하락은 인플레이션 둔화와 금리 인하로 이어져 소비를 살릴 것으로 전망. 다만 발언에 한국 자산·미국 자산에 대한 직접 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
One thing I want to know from you. When this third term started, it seemed that BJP had got very few seats compared to both the terms. The least has come from politics and in the beginning people were thinking that this situation of the big Polish government is coming again after 10 years. Ok. After a year, do you remember that somewhere it seems that this is a government of compulsion and not of strength.
No, no, even at that time when the mandate came, of course I was disappointed, yes I was thinking that 510 extra seats would definitely come. It was correct but it came a little less but even at that time it did not seem like anything because if you look on the other side there is no one. So it is not that we are completely organised, a fully well led party or a single party, they themselves are scattered after creating trouble every day, so I think their base was very consolidated, it was big and with the coalition we had a complete majority, right, so such a thing was not necessary, I mean even at that time I felt that things will be good and stable, I was not that scared even after the mandate.
That means you can run a coalition government with strength. We have seen this in the last 1 year. A lot of money has been made in the last 11 years. I want to ask you a personal question. You also got a good amount of money in your portfolio. How much is your or the market's contribution? How much of this is Modi ji's?
Now this is very difficult to do. I mean, look at this, only the person sitting there gets the credit. Got it? So I don't think you can take away the credit of the current government. Because there was so many things. This is a very complex country, it is such a big country with so many problems. There are problems with the neighbourhood, there are problems with defence, there are problems in politics, there are internal problems, there are problems with state-central-state relations, like the biggest problem is in Chhattisgarh, where I come from, that is a huge problem, so there are problems and problems and poverty and population is a big problem in that, running this country in a very cohesive way is a very big thing, that is to give good governance, the promise of this government, the same promise of the BJP government is that we will give good governance, because the governance was not great, I think before that their understanding was that we will give a very authoritative good government, good governance to the economy, I think they have done it to the best of their capability, they have done that, so that is definitely a change and that is the same feeling of disappointment that was there.
It is given in optimism and I feel that now whatever environment is being created, then if you try to look ahead, then what are the forces and from where can the tail wind come. In this sea country, you are the fastest growing economy, which means you are a tail-winded country, brother, you are the fastest growing country in the entire world, even in the larger economies, you are growing like this till 6-7, so that itself is a tailwind, but can it go to 8 and a half?
So, I feel that the atmosphere that is being created, the atmosphere that is being created, it seems that a storm is brewing in which there is a possibility, your base is of 4 trillion, so you have savings, you have resources, you have forex of 700 billion, then what after that ? Look, your service economy is very strong.
Third, now see, there was a problem of oil which was permanently persistent, you know $80 $90, so 70-80 taka is your oil import. Correct. That Seems To Be Under Control. Meaning, I feel that the current situation is that the market is oversupplied and on top of that, Saudev is ready to give more supply.
Because they don't want, as per my understanding, they don't want Shell Oil to become bigger. Because if oil sales increase, Saudi Arabia will have to reduce it. So I think Saudi Arabia is saying that brother, $65 is their break even point, so I will supply as much as is required at $65. Take it from me.
Take it from me. So I feel that if the oil remains around 65, then consider 65 as low and 75 as high. Average of 70. I think India is an very sweet spot. Very very sweet spot. Good. What happens is that as soon as the energy price decreases, the price of coal decreases, the price of petroleum decreases, the price of all petrochemicals will decrease, the price of all raw materials will decrease.
So the entire deflation has a big contribution in reducing inflation, direct and indirect contribution, due to reduction in crude oil, the same thing has happened on inflation, I am talking about the same thing. The entire inflation will come down. As inflation comes down, your rates will be cut. If there is a rate cut, then the consumption basket which has less purchasing power of the people will also increase.
So I think the rate cut has just been done by the Governor. We are in last week. Yes, its effect will be felt in all communities. This is what I am saying. And I feel that by chance, the first cut they should make is in petrol diesel. Now it is a little difficult to understand when it will come and how much it will come. That too will have an immediate impact. Will you definitely put it?
Comments 0