저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2019년 2월 시장 점검 영상. 이번 주 Cisco·John Deere 실적으로 미중 무역전쟁 영향 점검, 다음 CPI 발표에서 인플레이션 1.9% 안정 여부 확인, 장단기 금리 역전 완화 관찰, 유가 안정 필요성 언급, 부동산 가격은 하락 지속 후 거래 기간 감소로 상승 전환 가능성 제시, 산업생산 성장 지속 언급. 영상 말미에 교육 과정·상담 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
That's it, friends. The market is playing with us more than that guy from “V for Vendetta” with his mask. Okay, maybe that wasn't the best comparison. Let's get to the crazy market updates and what we should be watching for , especially this week. So, I have seven things for you to take away from this video, especially if you don't want to end up in the shoes of the person Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is now trying to take Trump's job in 2020, is addressing when she talks about the widening wealth gap.
That is, you want to be on the side of the wealth gap where your wealth grows. And I think that's why you're watching this video, to get these seven reasons. And if you want more reasons to help you build wealth, be sure to join my closed live broadcasts. I host four shows a week, usually over four hours each, helping answer your questions about sales and investing.
Link below. Now let's move on to seven things you should learn before you turn off this video . Wow, that sounded like Will Smith. Oh, and if you click the link below but feel sorry for the money, just follow me on Instagram. Number one, my friends, and I don't care if you invest in real estate, stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, or anything else, you need to know about these two companies reporting earnings this week, and how those earnings will perform relative to expectations.
Why? Because John Deere and Cisco Systems, you know, a tractor company and a phone company and a technology conglomerate whose brand is everywhere in the world. Well, these two companies are very sensitive to any trade disputes between the United States and China. And what exactly are we trying to assess?
We are trying to assess the impact of the trade war between the United States and China. So stay tuned to us on Wednesday and Friday this week as we learn about the potential implications of a trade war for two very large American companies. This is very, very important for future economic growth in the United States and is a potential indicator that will tell us: will the market move in the catastrophic direction that some of us think, or will we continue to move forward little by little and recover from the correction and shock of mid-2018, which led to a turbulent end to 2018?
Number two, new CPI data. If you don't know what CPI is, I'll tell you now. This is the consumer price index. In other words, it is the basket of goods by which we in America determine the level of inflation. And what we found out from the video, which I'll leave here, that I talked about last week, is that the thing that the Fed cares about most when deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates, which affects both businesses and real estate, is inflation.
As a result , this Wednesday, wait a minute, yes, this Wednesday we will get new data on the CPI. And the goal is to stay stable at just below 2%, somewhere around 1.9% annual inflation adjusted. If we start to exceed that, if we see numbers above 2% , you know, towards 2.5 % or so, it will be very difficult for the Fed not to raise rates.
So what do we have at the moment? Cisco, John Deere, we want to see the green light. Number two, we want to see inflation at a stable level, as before, around 1.9%. Number three, watch for further stabilization of the inverted yield curve. Listen, this term, inverted yield curve, is yesterday. We've been hearing about this for almost 18 months now.
This is the curve that measures the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds. And, essentially, it's a way of pointing out that, oh, when it turns around, we could be 18 months away from a recession. Well , she hasn't turned over yet. And we see the stabilization of this reversal. In other words, this reversal seems to put the brakes on.
And we're seeing more and more of this slowing and stabilizing, which is a kind of way for our economy to say, "Okay, okay , maybe, maybe we, you know, acted a little prematurely." Let's step back a little and say, "Okay, you know what?" Perhaps we can be optimistic about growth in 2019. We will keep an eye on this , because every time we see a change in this curve and a return to inversion, we run into problems again, but right now we are seeing a small pullback.
That's good. We will monitor the further pullback because we all want the market to continue to grow. I know there are a lot of people who say, "Well, that's enough for you, Kevin." I really want the market to crash because I want to invest some of my dollars. Yes, but market crashes hurt a lot of people.
So, stop being greedy, find a way to buy bargains. And if you don't understand what bargains are or how to buy them in real estate, then, of course, a little advertising: buy a course on real estate investing and consult with me, because do you know how many people I have advised not to buy the properties they were offering?
Many. It's amazing what you offer me and what I have to refuse you. But I'm happy to help you and keep you from making mistakes for a very, very low price. Fourth point, here's an interesting point. Watch out for oil. Oil has been struggling lately because, in fact, there has been a lot of it . Fracking increased the availability of oil, and suddenly the fear that we would run out of oil in 50 years was replaced by the fact that we have too much of it.
So now we see the price of a barrel of oil rising. And since oil is traded through the petrodollar, that's a fancy way of saying that it's traded in U.S. dollars, greenbacks, those same green bills that smell so nice because they're money. Yes, since it is traded in US dollars, higher trading volume at a higher price is good for the dollar, which can help curb inflation.
Although here you can already delve into economic speculation regarding the impact of oil on the dollar . But let's not do that. Keep an eye on oil prices. Stabilizing oil prices is generally good for the economy. We don't want them to be too high. We do n't want them to be too low. And now I know some of you might be thinking, "Wait, why wouldn't I want oil to be cheaper?" Remember that while it would be nice to be able to fuel your car cheaper, there are many industries that depend on the more expensive barrel to survive and stay in business, and when companies close, what happens?
Unemployment is rising and we are starting to see a breakdown in supporting economic indicators. So, you know, there has to be a balance in everything. Okay, next point. Fifth, keep an eye on the promotions, friends. Year after year, we see many stocks surpass their 52- week highs again. That's good.
Of course, December was just awful, but now the situation looks quite optimistic again. We are seeing large amounts of money returning to the market, which brings us back to the image of a V- shaped recovery: a sharp decline leads to a sharp recovery, unless there are serious fundamental problems. And so far everyone is looking around: " Yes, wait a minute." We know to be wary of things like corporate debt, junk bonds, student loans, or car loans.
And I think everyone is like, "Okay, let's pay attention to these things." Let 's make sure we don't go crazy with collateralized debt obligations in the mortgage industry again. "But we're all watching." And if any of you see any worrying data or pitfalls , leave a comment below. In the meantime, keep an eye on these five indicators, because things are looking a little better than before.
Let's see what's at number six. Number six: expect a continued inertial decline in real estate prices. First of all, real estate prices typically fall between November and December compared to the peak in late summer when deals closed in September and October. And then, of course, at the beginning of the year, when deals start closing in April and May.
So now I expect prices to continue to decline, mostly in response to the sharp rise early last year, followed by the hit to real estate from Trump's tax plan in mid- 2018. So, expect further price reductions to be announced. But my expectation, at least based on the data I see on the ground, is that the exposure time of objects on the market is decreasing.
Interest rates are falling. And when we see a reduction in the time properties are on the market at the same time as rates decline, we usually see further price increases. So stay tuned for the real estate data that will appear. And finally, lucky number seven: let's look at some new data that I have n't referenced yet, at least not recently on this channel .
Industrial production continues to grow. And I love analyzing industrial production data because, at the end of the day, what do we care about most? Slowdown in industry, especially against the backdrop of the trade war. This somewhat echoes number one, where we talked about technology and John Deere, but we still see data.
At least what we got in December looks pretty positive, at least compared to the volatility we saw in the summer of 2018 . So, friends, that's it . If you need more information and want to ask me a question, you can leave a comment, follow me on Instagram, or join our closed groups, which are not only for real estate agents, but also for investors of any level and from any location.
I will help you make money. Thank you for watching. Remember, friends, follow my Instagram here. Click " subscribe," and then , you know, you can choose another video to watch, buy a course, or something. Or just connect with me on Instagram, send me a private message, or write in our private Discord chat. I look forward to communicating with you.
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