저자: CuriousPejjy · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드(ARK)의 2026년 테슬라 주가 목표(강세 967달러 액면분할 후 기준 1,933달러, 기대값 약 1,533달러)는 강세 시나리오 수치가 비현실적이라 보기 어렵고, 약세 시나리오(967달러)가 상대적으로 현실적이라는 시각. [ARK 약세 시나리오 개요] 차량 인도 약 980만 대, 평균가 약 3만8천 달러, 차량 매출 약 3,720억 달러, 로보택시·사람 운전 라이드헤일 매출 포함 총매출 약 4,900억 달러 추정. 전기차 매출총이익률 약 46%, 전체 매출총이익률 약 50%, EBITDA 마진 약 37%로 제시, 현재(3분기 실적 기준) 전기차 매출총이익률 약 28%, EBITDA 마진 약 23%와 대비. [ARK 수치 검토] 차량 인도 1천만 대 × 3.8만 달러는 3,800억 달러여야 하므로 원문 수치는 반올림 오류로 보임. 기업가치/EBITDA(약 14.5배) 산정 시점이 2026년인데 2026년 시점의 부채·현금 데이터를 알 수 없어 계산 근거가 불명확하다고 지적. [진행자 추정] 영업이익률 30% 가정 시 순이익 약 1,470억 달러, 희석 2.2% 반영 주식수 약 34억 주, 주당순이익 약 43달러, PER 22.5배 적용 시 주가 967달러(시총 약 3.3조 달러). 다만 2026년 차량 인도 980만 대는 2022~2026년 연평균 성장률 약 54%를 요구하므로 과도하다고 판단. 2026년 차량 약 700만 대 전망이 본인 추정. 로보택시는 2024년 대량생산 예정이나 2026년 매출 510억 달러는 회의적. 본인 2026년 적정 주가는 주당 약 1,000~1,100달러(PER 40배 가정)로 제시. [강세 시나리오] 차량 인도 1,700만~1,690만 대, 평균가 3만 달러, 총매출 약 1조 달러, 순이익 약 3,000억 달러 규모, 주당순이익 약 96달러, PER 20.1배 적용 시 주가 1,933달러, 시총 약 6.6조 달러. 진행자는 이를 과도한 강세로 평가하며 로보택시 5,000억 달러 매출(2026년)도 달성 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 2022년 말 차량 인도 약 137만 대 기준 2026년 1,700만 대는 연 88% 성장을 요구하므로 비현실적이라고 봄. [결론] 진행자는 캐시 우드 강세 시나리오는 실현되기 어렵다고 보며, 약세 시나리오 주가 수준(967달러)은 상대적으로 현실적이라고 판단. 로보택시 등 신사업이 예상보다 빨리 자리잡으면 약세 시나리오도 달성 가능하다고 언급. 게리 블랙의 2030년 테슬라 주가 전망 영상도 함께 소개.
다듬은 글
so Kathy Woods or arkhamvis is predicting that Tesla stock could hit a whopping 5 800 bucks per share pre-split by 2026 has about 1933 bucks per share post split post three for one stock splits that's the bull case the bear case they're saying 2 900 bucks per share pre-split which post split would be about 967 bucks per share and an expected value of 4 600 bucks per share by 2026.
about 1 533 dollars per share post three for one stock split sheesh and for someone who's going all led into Tesla stock man double sheesh but in this video I'm gonna go ahead and break down ark's Tesla prediction to 2026 because the chart is a little bit I'm not gonna lie a little bit complicated to understand actually predicting for the stock and breaking it down was pretty difficult too it wasn't as easy or straightforward as Gary blacks by the way if you guys haven't checked out that video check it out it's pretty it's a sheesh it's good stuff but hopefully in this video we get to shed a light on that and and things will be a lot more clear so without further Ado guys let's get into the video all I ask for turn is a like And subscribe if you haven't already man come on let's go by the way guys if you want to support this channel even more now you can you guys can now become a member of this channel where you guys will get cool emojis we'll get you a crown man your king queen get your crown man and a members only Community post which I think is pretty cool and you get all that for only less than two bucks a month so that's a sheesh as well as this merch right now if they go all the wall poster behind me t-shirts sweaters mugs cups you name it it's their lick card in the corner or in the description all right now let's get into it alrighty so quickly and briefly let's go over the outquest for the bear and Bowl outcomes for arkhanvest or Kathy Wood let's first take a look at the bear case the bear case they're predicting they're going to sell about 10 million of vehicles in an average price of 38 000 which would give a total revenue for just Vehicles alone of 372 billion dollars now obviously 10 times 38 000 is not 372.
it should be 380 so we know that this 10 million is just a Roundup number so we know that right off the bat but what's interesting is the rose is next to it human driven ride hail Revenue in the net billions of around 67 billion dollars and then Robo taxi or autonomous ride hail which is like robot taxi pretty much a 51 billion dollars so that's that's insane but what's even crazier is that electric vehicle gross margin is around 46 which right now in the recent Q3 earnings it was it was just about 28 so sheesh 46 that's absolutely crazy the total gross margin however is a whopping 50 percent which is absolutely insane 50 gross margin by 2026.
wow that's insane that's actually pretty good but what's even amazing girl I guess is the total ebitda margin which is 37 percent jeez 37 that's efficiency man that's that's crazy and the recent Q3 it was around just over 23 but they're saying by 2026 37 that's very effective that's absolutely insane Enterprise Value to ebitda is about 14 and a half which is pretty darn good I mean that's insane but I am curious to know how they figured out the Enterprise Value all the way in 2026 because we're usually Enterprise Value is calculated in the present time so for them to go all the way to 2026 they already have the figures for how much debt and cash they will I don't have that data nor do I have it in my predictions because I go based on sales and how much they're going to be making per vehicle and per FSD that's it I don't try to predict how much cash they'll have or how much debt they will have because that's just gets too complicated but hopefully one day Arc can release that so we can see what they're thinking by 2026 because funding Enterprise Value today is possible but finding it in 2026 or finding it tomorrow is not really so it's interesting that they put Enterprise Value by ebitda and with the 2900 Price Target or a 967 after the three for one stock split is around 3.3 billion dollars at a free cash flow yield of 4.8 percent which is pretty darn good now let's go to the chart that I made here in the bear case for Kathy woods and let's break it down right off the bat as you guys can see in 2026 vehicle deliveries it's not 10 million because if you multiply that by 38 we get 380 billion so that doesn't make any sense so the correct number is 9.79 million Vehicles delivered and with the 38 000 we get a 372 billion in Revenue but then on top of that we have the ride hail revenue and the robo taxi Revenue adding that to the total revenue as well we get 490 billion total like half a trillion dollars in Revenue by 2026.
now do I agree with this that by 2026 they're gonna do half a billion sorry half a trillion in my opinion reaching 9.8 million Vehicles delivered by 2026 is extremely stretched in my prediction in 2026 I have about over 7 million Vehicles delivered but she's saying close to 10 million so let's see how things play out that's just crazy but going forward she's saying a total gross margin of 50 that would give us a an income not net income but an income of almost a quarter of a trillion dollars which is absolutely insane but the problem is here is that we can't guess what the stock price would be or Justify the stock will be 967 which is the 2 900 bucks pre-split based on total gross profit because obviously we need to remove the expenses operating expenses the debt interest taxes all that kind of stuff in Kathy woods and Arc in their little chart they didn't mention what the operating margin will be how much the expenses will be instead they did Enterprise Value by ebitda they went based on that but again Enterprise Value we need to know the cash and debt which we will We Don't Know by 2026.
so we're gonna find this ourselves we're gonna take educated guests to see how they're getting this number the Tesla stock price and the market cap of 3.3 trillion dollars by 2026. sheesh so it's safe to say that by 2026 if they're doing 50 gross margin an operating margin of 30 seems to be fair comment down below if you guys agree because I think 30 is fair why do I say it's fair because if you look at the recent Q3 earnings we can see the operating margin is about 17.2 percent almost half well not almost half is a bit more than half of the total gross margin so we're doing the same thing here to 2026 so that's how I got 30 and that's why I think it's fair but a 30 of operating margin out of the total revenue which is 490 billion dollars we get a net income of 147 billion dollars in net income which is absolutely insane this beats my own prediction for 2026 which is absolutely insane now the shares outstanding here is pretty important because Arc is pretty much saying from 2023 all the way to 2026 they're gonna dilute about 2.2 percent which by 2026 will be over 3.4 billion in shares outstanding that will give us an appears of 43 bucks per share by 2020 I mean sheesh 43 bucks that's that's pretty insane and now it's time for the PE now here's the crazy part about the PE arkinvest or Kathy Woods is saying a p of 22 and a half will give a Tesla stock price of 967 or a market cap of 3.3 trillion dollars so that's how she's getting the bear case do I think this is realistic as much of a ball that I am in Tesla I don't think we're going to reach 10 million vehicles or even Robo taxi or ride hail Revenue at these revenues by 2026 and I'm going to show you guys why I'm gonna go ahead and unhide the years of 2022 to 2025 and Bam as you guys can see right off the bat if they gotta reach almost 10 million vehicles or 9.8 million Vehicles delivered by 2026 they're going to be growing at a whopping range of 54 percent that's insane that's absolutely insane now I do believe in 2023 they can grow 60 or even 65 percent 2024 or 20 25 2026 requires them to bring out the new generation faster meaning new plans needs to be made the new vehicles have to be at least half the cost of model 3 and model y as they mentioned in the Q3 earnings report and they're gonna do it fast because if there's any hiccups you know 9.8 million for Arc I think it's a bit aggressive in my opinion but if you don't hurry up in 2024 2025 to make the plans to make the vehicles then it's going to be hard to grow at a 64 year over year remember guys Tesla's goal is to grow 50 year over year not 64.
but are saying that they're gonna do 64 which is yeah I don't know it doesn't seem really realistic to me unless they make the new plans and bring out the new cars and the cars are twenty thousand twenty five thousand each and by end of like in the next two years or so so I don't think that's gonna happen another reason why I don't think this is realistic is because well they're gonna start Mass producing Robo taxis by 2024.
so for them to reach 51 billion by 2026 I'm a little bit skeptical here but it's possible if they get everyone involved at the same time which I think would be a little bit tricky I think we gotta increase the insurance for that but it's possible however though for the human driven ride Hall Revenue they're saying 67 billion by 2026.
personally I don't think the ride Hall revenue is gonna come into play if Robo tax is Gonna Come and you don't need humans behind the wheel why do you want to have a human driven one it just doesn't make any sense so I don't I mean I put numbers here to try to you know slowly increment to arcs number 67 but it's just hard to get that number it just doesn't make sense to me but nonetheless guys the average selling price it comes down gradually to me to 38 000 in 2026 total gross margin as well as well as the operating margin and net incomes shared out standings the eps's and the PES so we're saying that from 900 billion 225 will be 2.2 trillion and then almost 120 26 if they you know jump from 6 million vehicles to almost 10 million vehicles and you got like Robo taxi and human driven ride Hall going ballistic we could get a 3.3 trillion dollar valuation that's absolutely insane what's really surprising here is that Arc didn't put the Tesla Insurance nor the energy which you know I think these guys would take these guys would be more interesting and realistic too check out my 2030 stock price prediction including everything right here however though guys this is just a bear case and that's absolutely footpreneur wild now we're going to move on to the ball case and if you guys are ready man smash that like button man come on all right let's move on to the bull case now in the bull case they said that 17 million Vehicles deliver I mean that's insane 17 million Vehicles is what I'm predicting is going to happen by 2030.
I'm saying that the 2030 goal of 20 million Vehicles is going to be delayed for a couple of few years so to see that Arc or Kathy Woods is saying 70 million by 2026 that's insane well it's a bit less than 17 million at 16.9 million but what's even more insane is the robo taxi Revenue at almost half a trillion dollars I mean bro that's insane it's absolutely insane if they're gonna Mass produce a 2024.
you're telling me it's only going to take two years for them to do half a trillion in just Robo taxis that's crazy I got more thoughts on this but we'll come back to it later let's get going forward she's saying here that the average selling price is going to be 30 000 which the total revenue would be close to 1 trillion insane total gross more than a 56 which net income would be almost reaching 600 billion dollars so we're exceeding a half a trillion in just income not net income operating margin I put 33 that we get a net income of 300 and almost 30 billion dollars so almost a third of a trillion dollars in net income that's crazy for the shared outstanding I increased it 2.2 percent we get over 3.4 billion in shares of standing and the EPS oh man 96.
that's have been crazy I was that with a p of 20.1 we get a stock price of 1933 and our market cap over or just 6.6 trillion dollars that's insane that's absolutely insane but again guys I don't think this bulk is gonna happen like 17 17 million Vehicles by 2026. that's I don't think that's gonna happen again I'm a big ball of Tesla I don't think this is going to happen what I think that won't happen even more is the half a trillion dollars in Robo Taxi by 2026.
I don't think that's gonna happen this is maybe a 20 30 or 2032 thing but 2026 I don't know that's being extra extra extra bullish now let me go ahead and unhide 2022 to 2025 to see the bigger picture so in 2022 we're probably going to end off the year around like 1.37 1.36 million vehicles but in order to reach the 17 million Vehicles delivered by 2026 they gotta grow at a 88 year over year 88 bruh that's flipping intense and I personally don't think they're gonna be growing at an 88 again 2023 I think they may be growing 60 to 65 because again in 2022 in Q2 of 2022 we lost about 100 000 vehicles because of a shutdown not to say that we're not going to have any more shutdowns we're definitely gonna we're gonna have more shutdowns in China because of the zero covet policy which is really stupid but if things go smoothly they can do 60 to 65 in 2023 and that's the max I think but 88 from now to 2026 year over year for vehicle growth vehicle deliveries I just don't see that happening what I also don't see happening very soon is the robo taxi again at a ball pool case I put here 50 billion and the reason why I started with 50 billion is because I looked at Uber and Uber is doing about what like 17 billion every single year and they have about 3.5 million vehicles on the road so by 2024 we can expect Tesla to have double the amount of cars on the road and a cheaper service most likely if Uber doesn't fall in line with Tesla and decides to be a competitor to Tesla in terms of over taxi and ride hauling they're probably mostly going to go out of business and for everyone who owns a Tesla and if Robo taxi is a thing and if Tesla allows everyone to use robotics to make passive income it every single I must and I'm not being exaggerated here we'll test the owner would want to do about taxi because if you're at home and the car is not doing anything and no one's using the car man go out and make me some money man so that's why I came up with an ambitious number of 50 billion dollars by 2024 and that's the max 2025 more than doubling that and then again 2026 is just quadrupling that which is insane personally guys I don't know how Robo tax is gonna be I need to see some numbers I need to see how things are going to come and we're going to see how that's going to work in 2024 or mid 2024 when they start Mass producing Robo taxis which most likely will not be in the hands of consumers it'll be more likely in the hands of Tesla itself doing the service sorry uh Uber and Lyft uh it was nice knowing you guys but moving on as you guys can see in the average selling price for each vehicle it comes down a lot more sharper than in the bear case because again Kathy is saying thirty thousand dollars per vehicle by 2026 and the total revenue as you guys can see here the total gross margin the income the operating margin the net incomes the shares outstandings eps's and uh PES and as you guys can see by 2025 we exceed 3.3 trillion dollars in valuation and that's the bull case but what's even more crazy is that from 2025 to 2026 it jumps literally like it doubles almost which is absolutely insane I mean that's I don't think this will happen in my opinion I don't think Kathy Woods bull case is gonna happen I really don't think bear case maybe 967 by 2026 makes sense my own prediction to 2026 at a 40pe is around a thousand dollars a thousand to eleven hundred bucks per share that's my guess but she's saying 967 with a 22.5 PE if they do 10 million Vehicles again I'm not saying 10 million I'm saying 7 million but uh we'll see how things go here are the charge side by side how it looks like it's a colossal difference it's a massive massive difference however though she's saying the expected price is 4 600 or 1500 bucks per share by 2026.
so we'll see what happens in 2026. so overall in my opinion Kathy Woods I mean the case is absolutely crazy it's insane and I don't think the bookcase will happen the bear case however is a bit more realistic in terms of stock price in terms of Revenue and profits I think a spit too soon again unless Robo taxi comes into play a lot sooner FSD gets solved a lot sooner and faster and if you add the other stuff like the energy and the you know insurance and many other things the test was going to bring into Power into play not power but overall the bear case seems to be realistic in my opinion in terms of stock price only the numbers we gotta wait and see but what is more realistic is Gary black Tesla's 2030 stock price prediction in this video I break it down in a full explanation on how he does it check it out you'll be disappointed check out some merch guys don't forget to subscribe and I shall see you guys in the next video see ya
Comments 0