저자: CuriousPejjy · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라와 스페이스X 합병 가능성이 커지고 있다는 주장. Walter Isaacson(80~90%급 확신 표현)과 Dan Ives(2027년 상반기 합병, 확률 80~90%) 발언을 근거로 제시. 합병 시 대등합병(50/50) 구조일 경우 테슬라 가치가 스페이스X 수준(약 2조 달러)까지 재평가될 수 있어 테슬라 보유를 권장. 다만 전체적으로 추측이라고 명시.
다듬은 글
So the speculation is growing between the merge of Tesla and SpaceX and it's getting heated day after day after day. A lot of analysts are standing behind the idea that there's a 100% chance that Tesla and SpaceX will merge next year. It's insane what's going down and of course that's again all speculation, right?
This is all speculation and of course for us Tesla investors it's a better deal to stay in Tesla rather than sell our stock and buy SpaceX stock in the presence of a merger, but here's the problem. It's speculation. We don't know if it's going to happen or not, but more and more people are coming out and more top level people coming out and saying that this is going to happen.
It's just it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. We'll take a look at that. Walter Isaacson saying this and Dan Ives doubling down on this as well. And another reason why you guys shouldn't sell Tesla to buy SpaceX stock because of the merger because some people are doing that and if that's the case if there's actually going to be a merger, it doesn't make sense to sell Tesla stock to buy SpaceX stock and then merge cuz you're going to lose.
I mean, we'll talk about that in a sec. There's a new reason for that. So let's let's just get down and smash like button and subscribe if you haven't already. Almost knocked down my mic. And let's flipping go. So here's Walter Isaacson talking about why this is going to happen 100%. SpaceX and Tesla going to merge 100% definitely merge.
Let's take a listen because it's pretty interesting. earlier to an analyst about the possibility that ultimately SpaceX might try to buy Tesla, put the whole thing under under one roof. I'm curious how you're thinking about sort of this AI layer over between Tesla, SpaceX, obviously the cursor deal to uh that that took place earlier this week and what it actually really means.
I definitely think you're going to see Tesla and uh SpaceX end up merging. They're already working together on Terafab, which is this huge chip building plant that's going to be done in Austin. Likewise, XAI and others are going to want to happen. So will Tesla to have data centers in lower Earth orbit.
That's all going to be pulled together. And Elon Musk is always moving engineers back and forth, moving designs back and forth between his companies. So I think your analyst is right that's in his heart. He wants to make this one big company. Now, Walter Isaacson is someone that you guys don't want to take lightly.
He is pretty close to Elon. He even wrote a whole biography on him. So he knows this guy pretty much in and out. He knows his behavior, his personality. And if he says this is going to happen 100% then this gives it a very strong chance that it's going to happen because he knows this guy inside and out.
But he his reasons are pretty darn valid. I mean, yes, SpaceX and Tesla, they are working on Terafab together. SpaceX and Tesla, they both are going to have data centers in lower Earth orbit, on Earth, in space, all over the place. So all that needs to be pulled together and it'll be beneficial if it's all pulled together in one company.
And he also says that Elon moves engineers back and forth between all the companies, not just SpaceX and Tesla, but XAI, SpaceX, sometimes Boring Company, sometimes Neuralink, depending on their expertise. So it makes sense to put all these company in one, make that into one. And I wouldn't be surprised if Neuralink and Boring Company adds to that as well.
5-6 years from now, if if SpaceX and Tesla merge into one big one. One big hint of this was that in Q1 earnings, in the filing, Tesla invest $2 billion to acquire SpaceX for the reasons that Walter just mentioned. It makes sense. So if again, if Walter Isaacson he's saying that definitely this is going to merge, that is that is that is a pretty big hint.
And it's not just, you know, Walter Isaacson and there's so many other analysts, as as you guys heard, is there's so many analysts were asking Andrew to ask him. They all seem to be standing behind this idea that yes, there is going to be a merger between these two companies sometime soon. Now, how soon?
We have Dan Ives who has been saying from the beginning that these guys are going to merge and he's, you know, doubling down on it. This is This is what he had to say on it. Let's take a listen. Do you think SpaceX gets Tesla under the umbrella before the IPO? I really would like to know what you think.
I think not before the IPO. So, that means SpaceX IPO, you know, in the summer. And then I'd expect a merger with Tesla in 2027, first half. Really? I mean, that's what I argue. And I I assign because I think that's the step process that they'll go through in terms of you go public and then ultimately a merger with Tesla.
I got to tell you, I think 80% 90% type of chance. SpaceX IPO this summer, it's going to happen. Merger, first half of 2027. And he's giving it 80 to 90% chance. That is a huge moment. I mean, again, these guys are standing behind the idea that Tesla and SpaceX are going to merge. And again, it's very beneficial if that happens.
But again, it's all speculation. Who knows what could happen. Recently, SpaceX just gave Elon a new compensation package where the valuation of SpaceX he has to grow to 6.6 trillion, then he gets like 60 million in stock these compensation. Which is kind of odd to me that why would you want to give him a compensation package right before the IPO and when there's a merger going on, if there's a merger going on.
I mean, that threw that That That threw me off a little bit, but I guess it was because of the Delaware issues and stuff like that. I don't know, it's a mess. It's honestly a mess. And I guess after even all this stuff, analysts are still coming out and saying that no, this is a merger is going to happen.
But, if there's going to be a merger, how would it be? Would it be equal? Would it not be equal? Well, we got Tesla Bloom right here with a new article, which I think is a very good article that I think everyone should read. I'm just going to read some parts of it. Hits the nail right on the head. The article title is a true merger of equals.
It's pretty flipping interesting. A merger of equals versus traditional acquisition. A traditional acquisition typically involves one company, the acquirer, here SpaceX, purchasing another, the target, here Tesla, outright, often paying in cash or stock premium, commonly 20 to 40% over the target's unaffected market price to secure board and shareholder approval.
The acquirer's shareholders may face dilution, while the target's shareholders cash out or receive shares in the larger entity. Usually with the acquirer retaining control and governance dominance. And if there's ever going to be a merger between these two guys, most likely space is going to buy out Tesla, that seems to be the case, then this is the case how it will go.
It's a premium, and I do expect. But Bruno my saying something different here is that there's not going to be, you know, most likely there ain't going to be this kind of a merge. It's going to be a merge of equals, and this is what she means. A contrast, a merger of equals, MOE, is constructed as a true partnership.
Companies combine via stock for stock exchange on roughly equal ownership terms, 50/50, regardless of current market cap differences. Valuations are negotiated to an agreed equity value, often implying an uplift premium for the seemingly smaller party's shareholders. Governance is shared or balanced, frequently with a new holding company or adjusted share classes, and the deal emphasizes long-term synergies over immediate control shifts.
A merger of equals reduces hostility risks, regulatory friction in some cases, and can be more tax efficient, potentially qualifying as a tax-free reorganizations. They reward long-term believers in both entities by giving them proportional upside in the Unify platform. Exactly the step up that could work here.
Now, this makes sense here because Tesla is still getting a premium because if space is going to be valued at 2 trillion and right now Tesla is worth around 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 trillion. Once there's going to be an announcement that there's going to be a merger an equal merger, a one-for-one merger and SpaceX is worth 2 trillion, then that means Tesla needs to be worth 2 trillion in order for this equal of merge to happen so it can be 50/50 percent partnership.
That's exactly what it says here and I 100% agree with that and that's why I keep saying that if when there's going to be this announcement that SpaceX is going to merge with Tesla or just a general announcement that that these two companies are going to merge then both of these stocks, these valuations as Bloomberg said, they're going to be in lockstep of it.
Meaning that they're both going to be valued the same until they merge because they're they're going to be in one company. That's exactly what this is. Now, here's a reason why you guys should not sell your Tesla stock according to her. Why hold Tesla shares? I don't sell for the IPO and not only that, I'm actually buying more before the IPO to be honest because I am kind of betting this is going to be the case.
So, not financial advice but that's what I'm doing. She says here that selling Tesla now to chase SpaceX IPO shares risks missing the acquisition premium and any lockstep upside. Post announcement arbitrage keeps the stocks aligned. Tesla holders get the implicit 50/50 lift without paying it twice. The combined entities TAM, autonomy, robotics, orbital AI, energy, Mars, rockets, whatever dwarfs either alone and accelerates timelines dramatically.
There you guys have it. I 100% agree with this but again, this is this is all on the idea that this is not speculation, it's going to happen. It may not happen. It It may not happen. It completely It because we got the compensation for Tesla. If they merge, that gets voided in a way, right? So, it it's it's it's I'm more leaning towards that it's going to happen eventually cuz it gives Elon all the things that he needs, and it gives the promise he gave to Tesla investors that Tesla investors will get first dibs on SpaceX once it goes IPO.
So, let's see. It's [sighs and gasps] It's It's tough to say. This is why it's all speculation, but everyone is standing behind the idea that this is this is a matter of when, not if. So, it's quite fascinating for me to see it, to be honest. But, let's see what happens, you know? IPO's happening this June, and then we'll see what happens right after that.
Until then, check out this podcast between Alexander Merz and I how she perfectly explained everything. You won't be disappointed, and just make sure you guys get your popcorn cuz you guys are going to need it. Subscribe, guys. Become our channel member, and I'll see you guys in the next one, as usual. Let's go!
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