저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 자동차 기업에서 로보택시·FSD·옵티머스 중심의 SaaS형 기업으로 전환 중이며, 이에 따라 애널리스트들이 높은 밸류에이션(PE 300대)과 목표가 상향을 정당화하고 있다. 로보택시 확대(연방 입법 시 9만대 허용 논의)가 핵심 동력이다. 웨이모는 가격 경쟁에서 테슬라에 밀려 위협받을 것으로 전망된다. 옵티머스는 로보택시보다 약 20만 배 어려운 과제라는 ARK 분석이 소개됐다. 진행자는 4분기 실적 둔화를 예상하면서도 장기 성장 스토리를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Cathie Wood's gives some interesting insights about Tesla. I would go as far as saying truth bombs because Cathie Wood's does say a lot of truth bombs about Tesla and here is another interview with Andrew talking about some very interesting insights and truth bombs about Tesla and why the valuation is so high even though I think it's cheap right now given the fact what's about to come to Tesla and the other S curves and all that kind of stuff but she explained it here very perfectly and we're going to break it down in this great video.
On top of that analysts are increasing price targets again which is a shish flipping moment despite the fact that we know that Q4 earnings are going to be a decline to Q3. Something has shifted and we already know what has shifted but it's confirmed and she confirms it here as well. So let's just get down with smash the like button and subscribe if you haven't already and let's go.
Tesla's always been one of your big holdings. Um, you know, in terms of just sales obviously things have been challenged uh but there's a lot of excitement about autonomy and there's a lot of excitement about uh the Optimus robot. What is your sense of where things stand at Tesla right now? Yes, uh the EV sales environment has been challenged but the market is shifting its focus to the robo-taxi opportunity.
So we're moving from 15% gross margins in autos, the hardware, to more of a SaaS model where robo-taxi's recurring revenue model is uh those margins are uh more in the 70s and 80s and I think as analysts understand that that's where Tesla's going and they start uh building in the model for robo-taxis uh they see uh they see a tremendous opportunity.
So it's been interesting to me to see upgrades even by some auto analysts uh now that they're beginning to understand that this is not an auto company. Maybe they're working with their tech analysts and and understanding the stock a bit better. Oh my god, Tesla stock PE is at $300. It's overvalued. Sell, sell, sell.
I love the fear-mongering here but as Cathie Wood's explained it perfectly here, analysts are viewing Tesla as not just a car company anymore meaning they are willing to give Tesla a premium valuation hence the high PE of 300. By the way, this will go higher as Q4 earnings will be worse than Q3 and a higher PE is needed to keep the stock around what it is now.
But here's the thing guys, no investor or analyst will ever give this kind of premium to any stock or company unless there is something huge in the horizon. For Tesla's case, it's the robo-taxis, FSD take rate increasing, Optimus, energy and so on and on. Cathie Wood's explained it perfectly here and here are some analysts who are increasing their PT as of late.
UBS increased their price target from 247 to 307 but do have a rating of sell which is interesting. Well, why raise it and then have a sell as a rating? That's just crazy. Wells Fargo only a $10 increase to 130 underweight and same, underweight but still increasing price rate doesn't make any sense.
The infamous, the famous Tesla bear Gordon Johnson from 1905 to 2528, even he couldn't resist increasing Tesla stock despite how much of a clown this is, he increased it as well. We do have one who decreased with a Truist Securities from 444 to 439 but has a rating of hold which is interesting. Baird keeping at a 550, Canaccord increasing it to 551 from 482 but this is old news, we did cover this in a different video as well.
But despite the tailwinds coming for Q4 and maybe Q1, most analysts are increasing the price targets which is absolutely pretty insane. It tells you everything you need and Cathie Wood's explained it perfectly. I mean just before recording this video, I just bought like 81 shares of Tesla. Even buying in the mid 400s, low 400s, it's going to be nothing compared to what the stock's going to be in 5 to 10 years from now.
Not financial advice. So when you think though about autonomous uh robo-taxis and you think about robots, what what does that look like and and is there an argument? Look, some of the critics would say, you know, the cars aren't cars aren't working the way they're supposed to be working right now in terms of what's happening with the EV market and and some of these other ambitious efforts are going to take a long time to get to a meaningful escape velocity.
Well, we're keeping an eye on how quickly Tesla's footprint is expanding here and it's expanding a lot faster I think than many people expected and it's interesting to watch Waymo as well. We draw in Texas uh we draw the footprint and and they're competing with each other. Competition is a good thing.
Uh so I think this is actually going to happen faster than most analysts think um in terms of the proliferation of robo-taxis uh especially if we get more federal legislation instead of just state by state. As you guys already know, Congress committee had a meeting on January 13th proposing to increase vehicles without a steering wheel and pedals, autonomous cars, to be manufactured from 2500 to 90,000 this year.
This is huge when it does get passed cuz it will get passed. It's not a matter of if if if it doesn't well then, you know, America won't be in the lead in autonomous cars, I'll tell you that right now. But it is going to get passed, no doubt about that. But imagine 90,000 operational cyber caps. Of course we're going to see it end of this year, we're probably going to see it mid next year or latest end of next year.
But that's insane and that's where we will see high margins come into play and auto revenues really won't matter that much and it will slowly fade away, will become a won't fade away but it will become less irrelevant and the more of the story of Tesla is robo-taxi and the AI stuff and then, you know, robots and stuff like stuff like that with the margins.
That's going to be the main story. No one's going to care if Tesla sold 100,000 less cars or more cars. They're going to care about did they deploy 100,000 more robo-taxis? That's going to become the narrative and the focus. It's also interesting how Waymo is now aggressively increasing their footprint when Tesla robo-taxis are now deployed in the same areas.
The question now is, can they survive Tesla's pricing strategy being seven times cheaper than them? That is the real question. Scaling, Tesla already won, there's no question there. RIP Waymo. But what will keep Waymo around is the pricing. If Tesla is seven times cheaper, if they don't increase it, if they don't increase the prices per each trip than Waymo per trip, Waymo is toast.
I don't know how they're going to compete. Imagine you're a customer and Waymo is charging you seven times more than a Tesla robo-taxi would. Why would you want to get into a Waymo? You know what I mean? So that is the real question and that's the pro strategy and if they don't if Tesla's not going to increase their prices at least around Waymo's or maybe even if it's twice as less, people are going to go with the cheaper option.
So I really don't see a way how Waymo is going to compete with Tesla. They're toast in my opinion. On the Optimus robot side, um there's a lot of excitement in robotics that in the private markets has been a huge space this this past year. Um we look at an Optimus robot uh our chief futurist Brett Winton working with Sam and Daniel have um concluded that an Optimus robot is going to be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to uh relative to a robo-taxi.
So you'll have you'll have waves of Optimus uh improving with time but full human is is going to be quite difficult. Nonetheless, uh the the robots that we're seeing, you know, pick and pack and and and lifting things, they're they're starting to make waves. I was a little surprised here. I have always thought that self-driving will be harder than getting Optimus to full human.
But 200,000 times more difficult, harder than robo-taxi is insane. Simple tasks like washing dishes, brooming the floor, doing laundry and etc. can't be too hard for a Tesla, can it? I don't know. You tell me in the comments. Let me know what you guys think. I was always under the impression that those things would be a lot more simpler and a whole lot less risk than robo-taxis because you know, driving and all that kind of stuff.
Right now we have a lot of human drivers as we keep going to the future that's going to get less but with a lot of human drivers and the road's constantly changing construction and stuff like that, I would I would assume that that's harder and more riskier. But no, apparently Ark Invest thinks it's kind of the opposite here which is quite interesting here.
A little bit surprised. But we'll see. Tesla is showcasing Optimus next month or the month after that which is exciting and Elon mentioned that it will move like a human. Now of course, working like a human and moving like a human are two different things. Let's see the future. It's exciting. Let's see the showcase because I want to see what this is.
A lot of people are saying that this is not a good idea for Tesla to show what the Optimus is going to do and all that kind of stuff. But we'll see. We'll see. I mean Elon did mention in the Q3 earnings that a million Optimus production will probably happen by end of this year. So maybe they're closer than we think.
We'll see. Maybe they're too confident that it doesn't matter even if they do showcase it, it won't matter. Let's see. But overall, interesting insights but confirms my thesis and confirms what's going on in the market and why the valuation is high. Why the PE is high because investors are giving it a higher premium because of the things that are about to happen.
And of course you have other things happening like Elon buying a million dollars worth of stock at like pretty much at 400 and we have Tom Zhu getting his pay performance and he bought the stock at 30 30 436, 520,000. These are options that was given from Tesla to Tom Zhu based on pay performance. So that is a shish moment.
We're seeing a lot of good signals going around and investors and analysts are liking this. They're absolutely liking this. You know what else investors like? What Elon did with Tesla's FSD, removing the one-time fee. And it goes deeper than that. I made a video about it, check it out here. You won't be disappointed.
Subscribe, guys. Become a channel member. Good stuff's going to happen this year, and I can feel it. I'll see you guys in the next one. Be curious. Let's go.
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