저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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캐시 우드 인터뷰를 인용해 테슬라 주가 하락 원인을 고금리 따른 소비자 압박으로 설명하고, EV 시장은 5년 내 75~85% 전기차화되며 평균 EV 가격이 2~2.5만 달러로 떨어질 것이라 주장. 테슬라 저가 차량(2.5만 달러급)과 로보택시가 시장을 10배 확대할 것이라 전망. 테슬라가 가격을 낮추고도 BYD 대비 6배 수익성이 높다고 강조. 영상 제작자는 장기 적립식 매수 중이며 목표가 대략 170~180달러 기준 10~12배(장기 캐시 우드 목표 언급, 2000달러 언급).
다듬은 글
Kathy Woods is dropping some massive Bombshells and some facts to Tesla investors and it's a video of her doing an interview with Andrew and I'm pretty sure all of you guys saw it but there were some interesting facts that she spit that I think we all ignored and we missed as well as some other stuff that she said in another video which I want to go over with and uh you know just get into the meat of this because this was a shees video and y'all as a long-term investor need to know about it and if you're bear you guys even need to know more about this than BS all right so smash that like button hit subscribe if you guys haven't already and let's get down to the video man let's go so I want you guys to pay attention to what she says I'll pause the video and we can talk about it and go in deep details about it because uh it's pretty juicy information let's go I would do want to start on Tesla sure because we've seen uh the price action in Tesla which has fallen uh on the back of worse than expected uh number and I'm just so curious what you think is happening at Tesla right now and whether and there are some analysts out there that now have gotten barish or start starting to believe that we are at some kind of big inflection point right uh so I think a couple of things are going on first uh and elon's been talking about this in the quarterly calls um the consumer is under pressure there is uh even even though these economic statistics are coming out and saying everything's just fine you listen to these company reports one by one uh most of them do not sound like these economic statistics are suggesting and I think Tesla has been telegraphing the high rates they've been cutting prices to offset them uh and they will continue to cut prices so I think there's economic weakness so the first point Kathy is saying that a lot of companies in their earnings are coming out and saying a lot of the consumer is under pressure because of high interest rates high in inflation despite the strong quarterly sales that they have like for example Walmart and the high Employments happening but what they're saying in the court reports based on what Kathy Wood is saying is that they see and feel the consumer is under pressure and she did mention in this lovely chart in the separate video if you guys want to watch that video it's a nice breakdown you guys can check it out here but she broke it down very nicely here that right now the bottom 33% of income earners are in fact in a recession territory and the top 33% is on the line on the border between recession and not and they're expecting by 2025 or by end of 2024 for things to get a whole lot better and this is due mainly because of the high interest rates what they are projecting here in this chart is that by end of 2025 they are seeing that there may be some interest rate Cuts if there isn't then we could be well below this line here and if that's the case that's not going to be good for you know High Capital purchases it's not going to be good for homes and it's not going to be for cars and we can see that with pretty much all auto companies auto dealerships struggling to sell vehicles and obviously Tesla is being affected by that as well another chart here that I think is very important for us to understand is you know inflation with the money supply because the reason we got inflation in the beginning is because we printed a whole lot of money so soon so fast at a time where interest rates were zero and everybody was locked in their home while getting stimulus checks what do you think was going to happen when the world started to open up with all this money supply people went out and shopped and you guys can see the big spike right here in 2022 and even early 2023 and that's when they start to cut the money supply and inflation is tracking down with it what Kathy Woods is projecting is by end of 2024 we're going to go to negative in money supply and we could probably see deflation happening and then by beginning of 2025 what interest rates are low enough because obviously to go in deflation to come out of it we have to reduce the interest rates so we can stimulate growth slowly comes up and the printing you know when drone Powell turns on the printer again then we can probably see the inflation you know going around the 2% 2 and a half% around there again but this was projected and if that's what's going to be projected then a few things could happen one of it is we can see a massive crash a massive recession happening soon by end of 2024 if this is the case if we're going to negative money supply and when that happens interest rates will not go down gradually but plummet but again this is all just the forecast and this may or may not happen but this is what they are projecting so yeah consumer index is under pressure people when they're going to go buy their groceries and stuff it's expensive and right now it's not a time for them to buy a vehicle or Finance one and we can see it with you know companies leasing and financing you know it's not really it's not moving right it's not no one is you know Keen to it not at the moment as soon as that's the interest rate has gone lower we can see a big spike on that as well but however though for EVS here's what's going on based on what Kathy Woods is saying there has been a bit of a backlash I would say and a pause because you do have GM and Ford saying wait a minute uh we're we're we're going to take a pause here ourselves because we can't do this profitably by the way that's a positive for Tesla you know to have the competition doing this and Tesla's just going full steam ahead for those of you guys that thinking that Ford and GM is cutting back on EVS is actually very bearish for Tesla think again it's very bullish for Tesla who right now can scale e profitably did you say Tesla you are correct and if you don't believe me that EES are the future and growing well take a look at this chart this was updated just a few days ago and you guys can see 16% increase and is growing year over year and yes the blue one is plugged in hybrids but you can see 70% and that's from 2018 EES have been keeping the ratio whoever is saying EES are dying just show them this chart that's all they got got don't know that's all I mean look at that 15.8% increase in 2023 come on guys come on this this is facts you can't deny the facts and when you see Ford and GM scaling back on EVS well they have the right to because their EES are not profitable they can't scale and they're losing a whole bunch of money on them so why keep promoting EVS even though that's eventually inevitably going to be the full Market in the next 5 10 years I would believe almost all vehicles being sold are going to be electric but ignore that ignore that fact right now GM and Ford they make their money through gas cars I don't think many understand how bad of a position Ford and GM are right now and the fact that they're still long on Ford and GM and all those other gas car companies it's not going to be good and we're going to dive more into that as as we go on with this video because there's some other juicy data that does support this statement as well but Ford GM not producing or scanning back on just gives more demand for Tesla you'll know why in just a second let's continue with the video if that is the case what's going to happen we believe during the next five years and you know that's our investment time Horizon we think the cost of an electric vehicle the average electric vehicle is going to be cut in half and uh Tesla's new block manufacturing uh techniques and Technology along with AI are a big part of this did you guys catch that EV prices will be cut in half she says the tech and AI is a big part of this could she be talking about the robo taxi the compact car the 25,000 car these two different Vehicles because she is saying the tech and the AI is a big part of this so it kind of does sound like it's the robo taxi but let's just put that to the side let's put on the back burner but more importantly pedi how can EVS be cut in half yeah byd they're selling for 10 12 $15,000 which by the way if they make it to the US rip gas cars but she's talking about about Tesla how can Tesla cut their prices in half right now their average selling pric is near 50,000 like 43,000 half of that this about $225,000 vehicle how can they do that well check this video out and you'll know exactly what she means and yeah it is a bombshell the model Y is roughly you know $50,000 and if you see that on the chart that's you know roughly 5 to 10% of the addressable Market is available at those price points so the fact that this was the bestselling vehicle in the world and it's operating in such a small part of the overall Market shows that consumers want affordable electric vehicles the best selling vehicle was around $50,000 repeating what he was saying people want affordable EVS why because it's cheaper it's easier and it's more convenient to operate think about it guys you never have to go visit for maintenance you know how every 5,000 Vehicles you got to go for oil change you don't got to do that no more major Services maybe when you're at 50,000 km gas stations what are those anymore you just plug in at home and there's superchargers along the way that you can plug in on the way there if if you don't if you can't really charge at home the cost is less cost of charging is less cost of operating the vehicle is less and later in the future this thing will even drive for you if it isn't already so when you look at it all around guys why would you want to operate a gas car when all these things all these elements all these positives are EVS is is ridiculous but anyways we're not done yet let's continue and so when we see battery cost coming down over the next 2 to 3 years when we hear that Tesla's on the way to coming out with a lowcost electric vehicle where then the addressable Market jumps up to the 50% plus uh addressable Revenue that's opening up the market you know almost tfold from where it was so we think that these short-term delivery numbers it's almost a throwback to when the model 3 was ramping it's missing the forest for the trees in the whole transition to Electric missing the forest for the trees that's facts Tesla's $225,000 compact car which is hilariously Up For Debate and we will get to that in a minute has a tenfold increase of deliveries when it comes to Market how look at the the chart guys if the model Y which is nearly double the cost of the compact car is the bestselling vehicle and it only took 5% of the market share of the total addressable Market when the next Generation vehicle which is a 25,000 car gets released the total addressable Mark is at least 50% based on this chart which is a 10x increase from the model y sales if that's not a shish moment guys then I don't know what is I honestly don't know what is that's crazy like model wi $45,000 $50,000 vehicle is the best selling vehicle in the world when you cut that in half the total addressable Market becomes huge as a chart said 50 to 60% 5% all the way to 50 60% that's at least a 10x fold nobody's ready for Tesla's Next Generation vehicle like no one is ready and now there's rumors going around thanks to Reuters that 25,000 Tesla $25,000 vehicle is cancelled and he want to focus on robot taxi which Elon came out and denied this and you know France came and said this I would just say stay tuned don't always believe in what you read exactly stay tuned and don't listen to everything you guys hear online now there could be some truth to this we don't know what they're lying about what they are not one thing is for sure they are working on a Next Generation platform which it'll be one will be Robo taxi and the other ones will be compact car and I do think a different other versions will come too and I think Elon did say there's going to be three different versions of this so let's see what's going to happen next year nearing the end of 2025 cuz that's when they said that it it could be ready for you know producing and all that kind of stuff so let's see how that's going to be moving on with the video but it epitomizes three Technologies robotics these cars are and will be robots facts and of course he's got the whole human humanoid robot going as well uh energy storage Autos in the future will be electric we believe in 5 years 75% to 85% of all sales will be electric uh here in the United States and around the world even with even with the pullback that we've had in terms of EVs and the adoption think about this yes because if we're right on what's going to happen to Auto prices the average EV will be in the 20 to $25,000 range did you guys catch that mini bombshell 75 to 85% all Autos will be Electric in 5 years average of them will be 20 25,000 on the average range oh but ped man Eevee demand is dying nobody wants an EV everybody wants a hybrid now everybody wants to go back they were going back to gas cars Ford and GM just take a look at this chart again that's all you need to know is it growing gear over here yes is it cheaper to operate than a vehicle yes the only thing we're missing guys is you know a car being worth 20 25,000 which the Chinese have and again if they come to the US I just hope Tesla can bring that into Market before these guys can enter the you know the US I really don't want to see Ford and GM all those guys going bankrupt I really don't want to see them being replaced by Chinese cars that's all I got to say but anyways moving forward get ready guys because what she's about to say is the biggest bombshell to date complete facts check it when you have the GMS and the Fords and everybody else saying we can't even make these things profitably to begin with let alone to do it at half the price and just think about this Tesla is doing it profitably and cutting prices in the process it's pretty phenomenal mic drop moment if that is not a mic drop moment I don't know what is sheesh Legacy automakers are saying no to EES because they cannot scale and they cannot be profitable Tesla can scale and they're profitable and they're cutting prices and they're still profitable that part is insane it's a shees moment and that's facts it's absolutely insane how insane check out these facts between byd and Tesla because I think byd is the only other electric vehicle company that's actually making profit not much but they're making some sort of profit check it out byd profit per vehicle almost 1,300 bucks Tesla over 8,000 Tesla is six times more profitable than byd despite aggressively cutting prices how do you cut prices by like 35% or nearly close to 50% and you're still six times more profitable than the second competition that's INF flip insane that's a sh that's crazy that's a massive bombshell and any other bear Tesla bear out there if you're a Tesla bull please send them this clip I cut out this clip and I put it on X if you guys aren follow me on X I don't know what you guys are doing but I put it there because it's such a bombshell it's such facts please share it with them please share that clip with them because that is just mind-blowing the fact that you cut prices so much and yet you're still profitable which is INF flip and saying Kathy Woods finishes this interview by saying this what is it worth in 5 years 2,000 we're in print on that so if right now the stock price is around 170 bucks per share 180 bucks per share that's what at 10 11 12 times increase from now at 10 to 12x from now which is why I've been dollar cost averaging in every single day every single week hope these prices stay low for a little bit longer so I can just accumulate more flipping shares but that's the bombshell that she dropped which was Absol abely insane and the insane part is is that we don't care about as a Tesla long-term investor I don't care about deliveries I don't care about the cars I care about the FSD that's the reason why I'm going all in tes because of the FSD you get the energy and the bot all that kind of stuff it's absolutely insane that was a bombshell here's another bombshell that Elon mus has been dropping which is a shish moment if you guys like this video you guys will love this video check it out man it's absolutely insane guys get some merch I bought the dip t-shirt because this is the dip if Kathy is saying 2005 years then this is the dip that's all I'm going to say subscribe and I shall see you guys in the next video see you
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