저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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Meet Kevin은 금리 역전과 연준의 대응, 모기지 금리 하락을 강조하며 부동산 시장의 변곡점을 설명한다. 2019년 3월 기준 30년 고정 모기지 금리는 약 3.8%로 하락했고, 그는 금리 하락이 가격 상승과 매수 기회로 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 애플 신용카드, 테슬라와 삼성의 실적 부진, 주택건설업체·소비자 신뢰지수 하락, FHA 대출 기준 강화 등 여러 뉴스를 다루며 개인 투자 전략으로 현금흐름 확보를 권한다. 애플 주식은 PER 약 15.47을 근거로 장기 강세 의견을 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
today on the meet Kevin report number five meet Kevin talks about inflection points in the marketplace the Federal Reserve's response to the inversion of the yield curve mortgage interest rates Apple's credit card and Apple stock problems at the FHA problems at Tesla problems at Samsung and maybe even problems with home builders and consumers and I'm your host meet Kevin what's up everybody welcome to meet Kevin report a number five today might end up being worse news than some random dude driving his car into a mob boss's car in New York the Gambino mob boss getting out and talking to the guy then deciding to shoot the guy six times and then claiming that he has no affiliation with the mob huh okay folks in all seriousness let's get started by talking about inflection points in the marketplace because inflection points are going to be what make you a much more savvy and successful real estate investor stock investor Bitcoin investor whatever floats your boat investor you will learn from being able to identify inflection points now I was inspired to bring up this topic because a lot of people think I'm somewhat bipolar when it comes to talking about the market that sometimes it's good and sometimes it's bad and these are people who seem to think that real estate trends in only one direction that is a relatively flat line and while that may be true over the long run it is anything but true in the short term and it leaves me wondering where would people get this idea from that real estate over the last year or year and a half has only trended in a straight line this is what housing in America is doing right now it's the lowest it has been in almost 35 years at the same time interest rates in America guess what they did no they went down too now well it's super convenient to portray real estate is always moving it in a straight line and this is oftentimes why I think when people read video titles they think there's like this bipolar Nisour madness going on but in reality when we look at real estate we can identify that wow there are a lot of opportunities to make money based on what's going on here's a quick representation of sort of real estate pricing since 2005 we get sort of the run-up at the end of 2005 we see our first inflection point and we kind of go through the chart to where we are now in 2019 and to me this is a great opportunity to just take a moment here and explain folks what our inflection points inflection points are changes in the slope so when we see this sort of change in slope right here we know uh we should pay attention but usually inflection points are followed by other inflection points so we can kind of see the slope changes and then we know oh this is something we should pay attention to this is much the same as to when prices shot up ten to twenty percent in the beginning of 2003 much the same as when they dropped 8 to 13 percent over here in the summer of 2018 as mortgage interest rates were at a crazy peak now mortgage interest rates fortunately are down the markets been a little volatile since then but here's something super important I put my money where my mouth is so last summer and remember I'm a real estate broker last summer I ended up selling a property right around here because I saw this inflection point and ended up renting another property somewhere between here where I decided and let's not sell that property which both of them were supposed to be flips and ended up selling one of them and keeping the other one of them and I told buyers maybe now is not the time to buy because I'm feeling a little bit of a freefall now then when we had sort of hit the bottom at the end of 2018 what did I recommend I said you know what quarter one might be a good time to swoop up on an opportunity so what did I do I closed escrow on a house at the end of Feb somewhere right around here now obviously right now it's too soon to determine what's going to happen going forward I think we're adjusting to sort of a new normal of a significantly slower growth sort of payback for the grow we've had over the last 10 years but who knows there could be hyperinflation there could be deflation we could be going into a depression there are a lot of things that could happen and what are the most important things well this is where I agree with Grant Cardone when he says you do not want cash in a recession you want cash flow number one reallocate assets to things that produce cash flow I agree with this try to stay away and minimize negative cash flows try to insulate yourself by protecting yourself with more cash flows which in real estate usually means putting more money down residential real estate you could get away with putting five ten percent down but that might be a negative cash flow if you have to rent out the property this is why in big deal real estate you generally put thirty five to forty five percent down you force cash flow by putting more money down which you can do on the small deal as well if you're just getting started additionally reducing taxes should be a no-brainer and is really bundled with number three which is spend on your business where you will see growth and then take the tax write-offs to help insulate yourself in slower times great arguments here grant I definitely support these arguments by grant now none of this is to scale obviously but what's kind of funny about the inverted yield curve or the inversion of the yield curve is that as soon as we had the little like OOP it inverted the entire market exploded and everybody overreacted over this little Boop happening here markets weren't super sure what was going to happen stocks fell Chinese stocks fell US stocks fell German stocks fell French stocks fell but the Federal Reserve Chairman over in Dallas Texas comes in and swoops in with a little bit of reassurance although he either knows secrets that we don't know or he's lying to us so let's let's find out a little bit more about what he says basically mr.
Kaplan Robert Kaplan suggests that we're gonna have to see it before we freaked out in reality and maybe even consider reducing interest rates at the Fed we're gonna have to see some more magnitude of the inversion of the yield curve and we're going to have to see that extend for a longer period of time rather than just a dipping and honestly I can't argue with that we did have quite the freakout for this a little bit of a cross there so I appreciate that that's sort of okay rein me and bring me back to normal here all right which I did mention in meet Kevin report for that we should be careful to be patient because this just happened let's see if this sustains for two to three months that inversion did happen on Friday but we know that after an inversion happens it has to stay inverted for three months before technically or at least in theory we'll see a recession within the next 18 to 24 months now there was one thing in this Wall Street Journal article where a somebody named Megan actually comes out and sort of in a really complicated way sort of says hey you know what this market is kind of weird because we have this basket of good news we have this basket of bad news and everything is just kind of inconsistent but consistently saying things are going too slow so we consistently know things are going to slow but in terms of is the market gonna keep going is the market gonna plummet we have very very inconsistent data to that effect which to me I'm kind of hedging along the middle of the road is just saying you know what keep wedge and real estate now speaking of mortgage interest rates let's pull up what's going on in the mortgage rate sector because folks it is excellent news and what happens when mortgage rates go down well prices generally go up and there are more opportunities to buy great wedge deals in real estate before the market realizes what's happening and comps adjust you could probably swoop into some deals and take advantage of these new lower rates take a look at some of the charts here let's compare we've got the 15-year down to about 3.4 percent the thirty-year down to 3.8 percent within the last month you can see how volatile they've been year over year we're down nearly 0.2 percent on the 30-year fixed-rate loan which is the loan I recommend all of you get and we are still up over the two year horizon but rates are still pretty low and who knows I mean right now they're trending downwards so could be a good time to wait on the sidelines a little bit and decide hmm do I want to refinance my loan do I want to take out some cash and go buy some deals now that prices are lower than where they were about a year ago we've got Jeremy over at financial education saying hey you know what this is kind of like things are on a 10% off sale kind of like meet Kevin's real estate investing course that's 17 percent off and you should join using Saint Kevin moving over to Apple Apple has announced it's sort of leap into the services sector from a product a sector that is by providing and announcing a new credit card sponsored essentially by Apple but backed by Goldman and serviced by MasterCard Apple has introduced a basically zero feat credit card probably unless you're late but we're not sure about that and you know maybe doesn't have the most benefits in terms of well perks that we've seen yet for example I'm not sure if we've seen any kind of travel protections extended warranty protections or other common perks like rental car protection or insurance coverages but what we do know is that the card is going to offer you one percent cash back on all your purchases and two percent back if you use Apple pay three percent if you buy an apple but you know those are more rare purchases only problem with this is a lot of merchants don't even know that they have Apple pay and then a bunch of others don't actually have Apple pay so even Goldman Sachs here thinks that the odds of people getting two percent back pretty low so we're not looking at this Apple card by any means as any kind of rewards card but what it is is a great leap into a new societal push towards greater transparency and greater security without actually having credit card numbers on the card we now see credit cards moving into hopefully a significantly safer direction with less credit card fraud and identity theft which would be wonderful maybe that would alleviate the need for me constantly telling you to freeze your credit although I probably still will be freezing my credit all of the time now I am tempted to apply for the Apple credit card that is I'll have to unfreeze my credit apply for the card and then freeze my credit again mostly because I want to support a V move towards a greater transparency that is transparency in showing you your expenditures on that card directly within the app being able to dispute charges within the app which dunno that other companies have done already as well such as the city double cash card which I have two of one for business and one for personal an amazing 2% cashback a card that most youtubers that I've found that talking about credit cards also support but I will say I am blown away by the feature to identify the location of where it an expense was made that way next time I go by parking at a parking structure and later on the statement see things like PCB now $27 and I'm like VAT ami dispute only to find out it was a parking structure while I was on vacation I can now probably rest assured thinking oh yeah that's what that is by looking at the map not a bad idea Apple I support the move and hey you know what moves like this are gonna pressure the entire credit card industry to evolve their businesses and I like evolution in business now folks I think this is a great opportunity just to shout out Andrew Faye and his father Andrew thank you so much for sending me the message that your father is a seasoned businessman and real estate investor and that Andrews father is impressed with how I explain some complex principles in a very clear way this was a message Andrew sent me on Instagram thank you so much for following me there and messaging me there obviously in reference to the real estate investing course where we go in detail a twosie on everything you need to know about real estate including wholesaling buy and hold multifamily large deals small deals you name it we talk about everything I won't let my biases and eliminate any knowledge from what you are looking for note also that Mugello complements me for actually responding to comments and questions in our private discord and folks if you join rest assured I'll be there to help you as well now going back to Apple what does this mean for the Apple stock well folks the Apple stock as is classic falls after any kind of Apple announcements this pretty much happens every single year but folks I am still bullish on the Apple stock I have been bullish on the Apple stock for probably over a decade now and it's certainly gone up and down through one heck of a rollercoaster but I'm bullish on it with its price to earnings ratio of just fifteen point four seven I'm bullish on the long run growth of Apple to continue to be an innovator of course we're not gonna see the one more thing like we've been used to but hey you know what I'm still supportive of the company everything I own is pretty much Apple and maybe that's bad because maybe I'm just a fanboy which is kind of how I feel about Tesla moving on over to Tesla and Samsung we noticed that Tesla sales have actually declined substantially in the first quarter of 2019 now part of that is because the federal tax credit for buying a Tesla halved at the end of 2018 so many people buying Tesla's were highly incentivized to make that purchase at the end of 2018 and now according to The Wall Street Journal the automaker is suffering what is called payback that is they have to suffer for lower sales now because they essentially ran a discount coupon last year Samsung on the other hand came out and surprised the world by saying you know what we're expecting way slower and lower profits and part of that is because of lower profits from the chip side of the Samsung industry or marketplace that maybe because of new chips becoming cheaper to produce a more competition for chips but this could also be due to our Trump vs.
tariff battle we will see what happens here but so far these bad news items I see rationalizations for not necessarily a good thing to rationalize things in the marketplace but they don't leave me as concern as if I didn't have a rationalization for those problems now we're gonna jump on over to Reuters and they're updates on Builder confidence and consumer confidence and no surprise here both builder confidence and consumer confidence has declined but hey how could it not after the roller coaster of a year we went through in 2018 both by saying price declines in real estate and price declines in the stock market only to be partially regained at the beginning of 2019 now there is something I want to say this is what I'm gonna call another rationalization here does not necessarily correct to do but we're gonna do it anyway keep in mind that home builder confidence when we see the market zoom it tends to go up because builders like to hang their hat on the future of what the market will do keep in mind you usually have a two-year period of time that you have to wait from a plan or project being approved to a plan or project actually completing this is why we saw massive home builder confidence at the beginning of 2018 and I came out in the summer and said you guys better get off your high horse because you're about to get hammered and sure enough home builder confidence has plummeted since then why because real estate prices have fallen and we've kind of been doing this so all of a sudden becomes significantly harder for builders to actually feel confident about what's to happen over this next period of time in the event they want to actually start projects this is a very reasonable assumption and makes sense so the fact that home builder confidence is down is no surprise to me all of this shenanigans stuff happening last year also means I'm not surprised that consumers are less confident about the economy as well which leads into my favorite bottom line about consumer confidence when consumer confidence Falls and this you know could contribute to the market slowing down anyway but I do recommend you consider spending less paying off high-interest debt and taking less risks folks it's fun to take risks when the market is zooming because you can be insulated by your investments but relying on insulation from your investments is a bad idea when the market is a little tumultuous moving on over to the Federal Housing Administration the FHA popular for its three and a half percent down payment program is tightening lending standards what does that mean well not much for most people they're really only tightening lending standards on people with credit scores of under 620 and debt to income ratios of over 43% which is somewhat a subprime category anyway so it's probably a good thing that we go back to manual underwriting for these kind of borrowers which is just a fancy way of saying there's going to be less reliance on the FHA approval software to approve buyers for FHA homebuyer loans and keep in mind I bought my first property with an FHA 203k renovation loan which meant I could put three and a half percent down on a foreclosure fixer-upper and buy a sick wedge deal with just three and a half percent out-of-pocket now lastin this is sort of a little bonus here we now have nineteen states officially requiring a financial literacy exam on budgeting and basic finances prior to you getting your high school diploma this is up from just 13 states requiring this back in 2011 not necessarily the fastest growth but still growth nonetheless definitely a move into the right direction so thank you very much to these states for now requiring financial literacy I feel like we should have required this a long time ago and something else that we should have done a long time ago is hit that little red subscribe button and the notification bell as well as following me on the Instagram so that you could DM me any questions you have whether it is about real estate life entrepreneurship the course whatever you got the best way to reach me is through DM on Instagram do know though that I'm not epically fast on Instagram but I do make it a point to get back to everybody thanks so much for watching and we'll see you next time
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