저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 달러 위기와 국가부채 위기가 올 것이며 달러 약세로 금·귀금속과 비달러 자산이 유리하다는 주장. 달러·금리 전망: 실질금리 하락은 달러에 약세 요인이고 물가 상방 압력을 키운다. 2002~2008년처럼 달러지수가 120에서 70으로 떨어지며 금이 300달러에서 1000달러로 오른 국면이 재현되고, 규모는 더 클 것이라고 주장. 위기 성격: 이번에는 2008년과 달리 달러로 피신하는 흐름이 없을 것이며, 미국채도 달러 표시라 달러 위기 때 피난처가 되지 못한다고 봄. 금 랠리가 2008년처럼 끝나지 않을 것이라고 주장. 포트폴리오: 1분기 기술주·채권 수익을 안심하면 안 되며 실질 구매력 손실 위험이 있다고 경고. 해외주식이 다우는 이겼으나 나스닥은 못 이겼고, 하반기 달러 약세 시 비달러 자산(특히 금·귀금속)이 더 나을 것이라고 전망. 정치 이슈: 트럼프 기소(스토미 대니얼스 입막음 송금의 선거자금법 위반 혐의)를 비판하며, 연방 차원 조사가 없었고 민사 벌금 성격이라 형사 범죄 기소는 부당하다고 주장. 출연자 본인의 과거 선거자금법 위반 벌금 경험도 언급. 출연자 의견 요약: 달러·금 중심 거시 비관론, 미국 자산 비중 축소 권고. 정치 관련 발언은 증시 예측과 무관.
다듬은 글
this time I don't think that's going to happen because this crisis is going to be punctuated by a dollar crisis by a sovereign debt crisis and when that happens nobody is going to take refuge in the dollar when they're trying to get out of the dollar [ill interest rates are going to be even lower than they were before because inflation is going to be even higher but the problem is going to be the ability to just pay the nominal rates because even if the real rates are going down if you don't have the money to cover the increasing nominal rates then it doesn't even matter but what it's gonna but what's gonna matter though is going to be the impact on prices because ultimately falling real interest rates are going to be bearish for the dollar and that's going to put more upward pressure on prices so it's the reverse of what happened during the last easing cycle where the Fed was able to print a lot of money with QE yet the dollar gained value on foreign markets relative to other currencies and and so even though we were debasing the dollar the dollar was gaining relative to other currencies and that was maintaining its International purchasing power and that was keeping down the cost of a lot of our Imports and so we really weren't having to deal with the full consequences of the inflation because the strengthy dollar despite that inflation was offsetting it but now it's going to be the reverse we're going to have a weakening dollar it's going to be like 2002 to 2008.
during that time frame the dollar went way down the dollar Index went from 120 down to 70. that's when gold went from 300 to a thousand that's when gold stocks did much better than tech stocks that's the environment that I think we're in except on a bigger scale because the U.S is starting this cycle in much worse Financial shape than it was in 2000 we had a much bigger bubble the FED has a much bigger balance sheet there's been much more damage done to the underlying structure of the economy and and and and so now I think the moves in the dollar in Gold are going to be much bigger and the other main difference is going to be the end game because paradoxically the dollars Decline and Gold's rally came to an end in 2008 with the financial crisis and that paradoxically caused the oversold dollar to bounce and it caused investors to take profits in Gold this time I don't think that's going to happen because this crisis is going to be punctuated by a dollar crisis by a sovereign debt crisis and when that happens nobody is going to take refuge in the dollar when they're trying to get out of the dollar and no one is going to take refuge in U.S treasuries if they want to get out of the dollar because U.S treasuries are denominated in dollars so a dollar crisis will look much different than a financial crisis and the impact will be far different in the financial markets in the foreign exchange and precious metals and all this I think is happening I think it's going to be happening at an accelerated pace so a lot of people you know they did okay in q1 they made some money in these tech stocks you know they made money even in bonds rallied a bit but don't be lulled into a false sense of security if you stay on that path you are not going to make money in fact you could lose a tremendous amount of money what's even worse it's not just losing money it's losing purchasing power because even if you don't lose your money your money is going to lose its purchasing power so what you got to do is again read between the lines and the writing on the wall and change your portfolio you know foreign stocks again beat the U.S stock market they didn't beat the NASDAQ but you know the beat the Dow beat the s p uh so the foreign markets are already doing better but I think that they'll do even better in the later quarters of the Year protect particularly in the back half of the Year relative to the U.S market when the dollar really starts to fall and that gives a big Tailwind to the non-dollar portfolio and in particular the gold and precious metals I want to talk a little bit about politics because on Friday we also found out that a grand jury uh in in New York indicted former president Donald Trump who is a current candidate for the presidency and so now he's been indicted he hasn't been arraigned yet and we haven't actually seen the indictment because they haven't unsealed it but we know that the indictment relates to violations of campaign Finance laws and it has something to do with 120 000 or 130 000 our payment that was made to Stormy Daniels uh to keep her mouth shut remember stormy was out there talking about some Affair that she allegedly had uh with Donald Trump and Donald Trump didn't want her talking about it anymore uh maybe it was true maybe it wasn't I don't know but he paid her to be quiet which is pretty common you know a lot of people enter into these confidentiality agreements where you pay somebody money to keep their mouth shut and they don't talk about something I mean this happens I mean I've never been involved in something like this but I know that that it happens certainly with people that have a you know are a celebrity or people know who they are it's very easy for somebody to come out and make an accusation maybe it's true maybe it's false but sometimes the easiest thing you can do is pay the person to be quiet uh because you know maybe that's the best way to deal with especially if you're wealthy I mean people talk about oh this is 120 000 that's a lot of money not to Donald Trump right that's not not a lot of money so it's probably worth uh what he paid now what they're trying to claim though is because he was a candidate for president at the time that this payment constitutes a campaign donation and he should have reported it which to me seems ridiculous because how do you report it number one because if the purpose of the 120 000 is so Stormy Daniels doesn't make these allegations but you have to report it on something that's disclosed to the public if you report that you paid Stormy Daniels 120 000 to to not say anything you've just destroyed the entire value of what you were buying for the 120 000 so it would actually make it impossible if you had to report it as a campaign contribution because then why even do it because the fact that you made the payment would be news in and of itself and you basically would look guilty uh because because you paid so I don't even see how he could have reported it uh even if he thought it was a campaign donation which he clearly did not because he has a right to do that as a private citizen just because he's running for president doesn't mean you can't enter into a confidentiality agreement with somebody I mean you could do that for personal reasons a guy's a married man uh the guy's got kids he doesn't want this person talking about something that may or may not have happened he may have made that payment even if he wasn't running for president but there certainly were valid reasons for Donald Trump to believe that that didn't constitute a campaign uh contribution that should have been disclosed and in fact the federal uh uh you know campaign Finance people they knew about it for years they never filed any charges now you got this ridiculous uh D.A in in Manhattan coming out and saying oh he violated campaign Finance law well why didn't the federal government say something about it because it's a federal law it's not a state law if he violated these federal election laws why did the federal government do anything about it I mean I know firsthand uh about this because I was fine and I paid a ten thousand dollar fine I think it was ten thousand dollars may have been twenty I don't I don't know for sure but I I think it was 10.
but I I got fined for a violating campaign Finance laws nobody had guided me I didn't face criminal charges I paid a fine it's civil so even if Donald Trump should have reported this hundred and twenty thousand dollar payment and I don't think he should have I think he was right not to do but even if I'm wrong all right what the hell do I know right I'm not a career politician that's one of the reason I don't like campaign Finance laws it was the worst part about my Senate campaign was filing these uh these these campaign Finance laws they are written by career politicians to prevent guys like me for running for office right they make it harder for people to raise money uh when they're not a career politician and especially when you're a self-fundor right I you know I didn't fund all of my campaign myself I I did about a third of it I know Donald Trump uh you know spent a lot of money of his own money on his campaign and he's Finance campaign Finance laws really make it difficult but they also make it impossible if you have wealthy friends for them to contribute because of all these limits I mean I don't think there should even be these campaign Finance laws personally I think they're unconstitutional and I I think we just get rid of them you know uh and just you know I I think they do more harm than good I think they protect the entrenched political class and it's one of the reasons that there's no turnover they they've stacked a deck they've rigged it against Challengers especially non-career politicians who just want to run like I did you know these campaign Finance laws are very difficult and of course they're hard to understand which is why I inadvertently violated them and you know I can't even remember what exactly I did to get this ten thousand dollar fine but but I got it and I paid it um but you know it was just an honest mistake but that's the same thing that Trump would have done right because if I was Donald Trump and Ira and I had to make that payment even if I made it through my organization it never would have occurred to me that I was making a campaign contribution when I when I when I entered into that Arrangement right who would have thought that Donald Trump did it through a lawyer I don't think his lawyer said hey you got to report this as a campaign contribution right so maybe they were wrong maybe Trump got bad legal advice and he inadvertently should have reported this donation right that he made because he's the one that wrote the check right it's not Stormy Daniels donation she didn't donate anything now maybe if she had agreed to be quiet and didn't take a payment would that have been a donation would you know would her agreeing not to say something bad you know would there'd be some monetary value you would have to ascribe to that and then claim it as a campaign donation from Stormy Daniels but it certainly wasn't a donation of hers because she got paid to do it right she didn't donate anything she she got paid something so if anything it was an extra donation from Trump now he you know he committed or he uh contributed lots of money to his campaign so what's an extra hundred twenty thousand I mean it's nothing what would have been damaging if he had to disclose the nature of that contribution if that's what it was because it would have blown you know the whole thing up because now everybody would have seen that he made the payment and then what's the point of making the payment right if you got to tell everybody that that you did it but my point is that even if he was mistaken and it should have been reported this is civil you know you know this isn't a criminal they're concocting a crime and they made it a felony right so this whole prosecution in my mind is illegal it is politically driven what about equal protection under the law why is Donald Trump being treated differently than so many other politicians who have made the same mistake myself included right if they weren't going to charge me with a crime they shouldn't be charging Donald Trump with a crime he didn't do anything worse than I did uh even though I don't even remember what I did but I'm sure if Donald Trump had done what I did they could have indicted him for that too right but it is not a crime it's a mistake if anything it's a civil penalty what are they doing they're hoping that they can embarrass him they can prevent Donald Trump from running for office it doesn't even matter even if he's sitting in jail he could run from office from jail you know he you know and then I guess once he got elected he could pardon himself and he would get out of jail but the whole thing is ridiculous that you would try to put him in jail for something like this and of course if he was convicted of this felony that doesn't stop him from running for president you could be a convicted felon and run for president right my Dad ran for president you know in the libertarian party he didn't get the nomination Harry Brown got it but he was an ex Connie you know he was in for tax evasion but he could still run for president and if he had won which obviously he wasn't going to but supposedly he could win right I mean whatever he could serve the only thing he couldn't do was vote for himself you know he used to joke about that you know he could run but he can't vote for himself and so if Donald Trump were actually convicted of a felony he couldn't vote for himself for president but he could run for president you know I'm in that same position right now not that I'm an ex-felon but I live in Puerto Rico and because I live in Puerto Rico I'm not allowed to vote for president but I can run for president from Puerto Rico I could become president as a Puerto Rican resident I just can't vote for myself nor can my wife because she also lives here in Connecticut so the same situation would apply even if they were able to get a conviction because they find some jury of trump haters I mean imagine that how is Trump going to find a jury in New York right all these guys are like wait you know looking for some excuse to to arrest them and this is the crazy part about it all the things that they want to do arrest Trump for right that they said he did and this is it this is all they can come up with this campaign a donation that's all the district attorney in New York can confined on Trump was was a a campaign Finance violation that shows they've got nothing because if they had something better they would have gone with that instead of this uh but this whole thing makes a mockery of the judicial system and you know think about all the crime that's actually going on in in New York you think that the prosecutors could focus on real criminals instead of campaign Finance violations which aren't even any of their business let if there's federal laws you know that against this right they could come out and they didn't want to do it because they know that he didn't do anything wrong but this guy I guess he's got some political Ambitions you know this district attorney oh and let me let me dumped out let me indict Donald Trump but it really to me undermines the entire judicial process it's you know another uh just peace to show how politicized the justices system has become in the United States that we don't really have Justice that we're not really a nation of laws the way we're supposed to be We're a nation of men and these men apply the laws differently depending on the circumstances
Comments 0