저자: Eric · 한국인
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중간선거 앞두고 인플레이션 재부각 가능성을 켄 그리핀 발언으로 소개. 기준금리는 내려가는데 장기금리는 상승하는 괴리가 있으며, 이는 인플레 프리미엄 요구로 해석. 채권시장은 인플레·장기성장 둔화 우려를 반영하는 반면 주식시장은 금리인하를 긍정 반응. 선거 결과보다 교착(stalemate) 여부가 중요하며 증시 방향은 선거 전 이미 반영된다는 논리. AI 생산성 효과는 생성형 AI보다 기업의 기술도입 태도 변화에서 나온다는 주장. 자산배분에서 채권의 주식 헤지 역할 약화를 경계.
다듬은 글
This shows the base interest rate, the 10-year bond yield, and the 30-year bond yield. The base interest rate has been continuously lowered since last September, but long-term interest rates are actually rising. When the base interest rate goes down, bond yields should also fall, but instead, we are seeing a strange phenomenon where interest rates are rising .
It is said that long-term interest rates are a kind of insurance premium demanded by the market . Cangle reports that interest rates are rising because the U.S. thinks, "I am going to lend you money now, but since future inflation is expected to be quite high, I need to collect more insurance premiums ." Yes, hello.
This is Eric. Now the year is almost over. Time seems to be flying by. This year has been incredibly volatile for the market, and I know you have worked very hard to weather those waves of volatility . I hope that Eric's Master Lab has been of at least some help to you in navigating through those waves of volatility .
Another year is starting now, isn't it? I hope you achieve great success in the coming year with a renewed mindset, together with the study of the master Erige . yes. So, regarding today's topic, there is a big event next year—the midterm elections, is n't there? A certain guru suggested that the tables could turn in these midterms, so I brought this topic here.
The master who made this statement is none other than Ken Griffin. He is a very famous figure, but it seems this is his first appearance on the Master Lab . In a word, Ken Griffin is the new emperor of hedge funds . Until Ray Dalio retired, Breewater, a hedge fund similar to Ray Dalio's, was the hedge fund that generated the most profit.
However, after Ray Dalio's retirement—that is, starting in 2022—the hedge fund with the highest profit in history changed from Breewater to Citadel. So currently, Ken Griffin, the owner of this Citadel, can be seen as the new emperor of hedge funds . Well, Citadel employs various strategies and trading methods, but the most famous among them is what is called high-frequency trading.
Ultra-high frequency trading. So, it is showing such strength in ultra-high frequency trading, where trades are made in one millionth of a second. And because of this, there is a somewhat unfortunate connection, or rather, a bad one, with our country . Now that Citadel has entered the Korean market and is trading on the KOSDAQ, because it is high-frequency trading, transactions are carried out very quickly and in very large quantities .
As a result, trading volume exploded for a moment, causing the KOSDAQ to fluctuate somewhat due to Citadel's trading . So, as far as I know, there was a time when the regulatory authorities fined the sitas for engaging in market exchange activities . Anyway, I would like to say that there is a connection, or rather, a non-connection, with our country as well .
yes. Today's content is as follows. While concerns about inflation are gradually fading from the attention of many people, this is not the case for Can-Philippines. He is someone who has been consistently arguing for several years that inflation is dangerous, and therefore he is saying that inflation could become a key issue in next year's midterm elections.
At the same time, the bond and stock markets appear to be polarized regarding these issues; then, is the bond market really the right choice ? I shared my opinion on whether the stock market is correct . And in the case of the Citadel, given that it deals with Quantul, it is bound to have an inseparable relationship with machine learning AI.
So, from the perspective of Ken Griffin, the owner of the Citadel, what is his view on AI? We also talked about whether AI is an overhype or not . In the election a year ago, the Republican Party benefited from inflation. During the Biden administration, prices rose so much that the quality of life for Americans declined, and the Republican Party capitalized on this to gain significant advantage in the election.
However, Cangle reports that this time, conversely, the Democratic Party is benefiting from inflation. A prime example is ' Tti,' isn't it one of the keywords Mamdani put forward in the passing campaign? So, to sum it up, it is the cost of living. Even though inflation figures may have subsided now, the actual cost of living is still on the high side.
Therefore, Cangle believes that the Democratic Party is benefiting from pushing forward with the keyword that living costs are currently too high . And in fact, because inflation has been very persistent over the past year, there is an aspect where prices have eroded Americans' income and savings. That is why people are saying that the Democratic Party's strategy is working well.
But the Republican Party is n't stupid, you know. Surely they must be aware of this reality, so why isn't the Republican Party addressing it ? According to Ken Gluckin, the Republican Party is currently in a dilemma . Are n't immigration control and tariffs the core policies of the Republican Party and the Trump administration right now?
But the point is that immigration controls and tariffs are policies that are bound to stimulate inflation. So, they need to scrap their core policies for inflation to replace them, but that doesn't mean it is easy for this government and ruling party to scrap their symbolic policies overnight. He was elected by putting that forward, so Trump recently lifted tariffs on Brazil again.
Did n't news like this come out? Cangle reports that Trump is taking this issue of lifting tariffs on Brazil very seriously . This is because the items subject to tariffs in Brazil are closely related to the so-called basket of goods . So, when looking at the overall CPI index, imposing tariffs on Brazil does not cause the index to spike, but these are items that actually have a significant impact on the prices felt by the public .
That is why I believe Trump was aware of this and handled the Brazil case . In that case, regarding whether a complete rollback will occur, I thought it would be difficult. Because for tariffs to be completely lifted, it is virtually impossible for the Trump administration to suddenly say one day, "We are not just dealing with the tariffs on Brazil; we are rolling back all tariff policies, including those imposed so far and those to be imposed in the future." And is n't this case currently pending in the Supreme Court?
It was an emergency economic zone. The issue at hand is whether it is unconstitutional or constitutional, and the point is that the Supreme Court needs to deliver a ruling on this matter . But from Candlepin's perspective, the Supreme Court probably won't be able to do that . Because, while it is only natural to conduct a trial based on legal principles and common sense, realistically speaking, since this amounts to going against this government's most important policy, I did expect the Supreme Court to likely side with the government.
However, looking at recent reports, there are also observations suggesting that the Supreme Court is highly likely to issue a dangerous ruling. So, in a way, if the Supreme Court issues a dangerous ruling, it could serve as a good pretext for Trump to push through his policies again . In any case, Kinglefi believes that given the situation as it stands so far, it will be difficult for the Republican Party to abandon its pro-inflation policies.
That is why they are facing a significantly unfavorable situation in the election. So, what is the current situation ? This chart is what U.S. polling organizations conduct predictions and surveys regarding the midterm elections, is n't it? This is a chart showing the consensus reached regarding that.
If you look at it, the seats that the Democratic and Republican parties are expected to secure are 207 for the Democratic Party and 209 for the Republican Party. And it appears that the fate of 19 seats is still unknown . So, even just looking at the consensus of this opinion poll, we can see that the gap has narrowed significantly compared to the current composition of Congress, and if that is the case, would n't there be betting sites as well?
Representative examples include betting sites like Polymarket, where, when predicting whether the Republican or Democratic party will win, they overwhelmingly predict that the Democratic Party will win the midterm elections . It is expected that they will control the House of Representatives . Ken Glfee predicts that the Democrats could aim for the Senate as well, going beyond the House.
Then, what happens if the Democratic Party takes control of the Congress ? Regarding whether the mom-unit style policy that caused a sensation this time will become mainstream, I said that it would not . Now that Trump is pushing things to the extreme again, is n't it only natural that the opposite extreme is rising as a result?
But I do n't think the Democratic Party will lean that much to one side again, because Citadel has moved its headquarters to Miami. However, even if you look at the Miami mayor, people are saying that although he is also a Democrat, his tendencies are completely different from those of the Mam United .
Well, if we look at real estate policies alone, MAY is focusing on expanding supply, while New York is centering on rent-me- control. And from Canfin's perspective, he believes that Mamdan's policy is unrealistic, so he thinks they will probably pivot . So, in the case of Canfin, he predicted that Mamdan would realize that his policy is unrealistic and be able to pivot.
However, it seems like this is a view heavily infused with Canlipin's personal bias. In that case, since the core issue mentioned earlier is ultimately inflation, how is the capital market reacting to this current topic? Tanglypi says that the reactions of the bond market and the stock market have been completely polarized .
First of all, regarding the bond market, this graph is... This shows the base rate, the 10-year bond yield, and the 30-year bond yield . If you look, the base interest rate has been continuously lowered since last September, but the long-term interest rate is actually rising . When the base interest rate goes down, bond yields should also fall, but we are currently seeing a strange phenomenon where interest rates are actually rising.
Well, I have actually shared a detailed view of this in the Gundlach section, but So, how do you view the can now? Canpie is saying that long-term interest rates are a kind of insurance premium demanded by the market . So, in short, it means that the market is demanding a kind of premium from the U.S.
due to issues like the fiscal deficit and inflation . Cangle views it as follows: "Ah, looking at this, the US is going to lend you money right now, but since it seems that future inflation will be quite high, I need to receive more insurance premiums, so interest rates are rising ." And from another perspective, long-term interest rates are also closely related to long-term investment .
Because, well, it takes quite a long time to build a factory. That is why, when building this factory, a long-term loan is usually taken out with a maturity of 10 years or more . As a result, such corporate investments are inevitably closely tied to long-term interest rates. However, if long-term interest rates rise, it means lending rates will go up, so companies will likely reduce investment.
If investment shrinks in that way, growth potential, especially long-term growth potential, will decline. So, Canfin reports that the bond market is even concerned about the decline in long-term growth due to inflation . On the other hand, the stock market was excited. Because stocks like easy money.
It is being said that since stocks will unconditionally like it when interest rates are lowered and money is released through easing measures on both sides, regardless of how inflation turns out, as long as interest rate cuts continue, there is a high probability that stocks will definitely like it.
So, the point is that stocks do n't have to worry about things like this. In that case, regarding whether bonds or stocks are right, and which market's view is correct, Canpie sided with the bond market . I believed that the bond market's view would be correct in terms of macroeconomics . We are now facing deflation caused by technological innovation .
Do n't they say that will offset inflation? For example, it is said that once robotics is properly introduced, mass production at low cost will be possible, leading to deflation . Cathie Wood is a prime example, but Ken says that while it is not an unrealistic story and he thinks it could happen, it is a story set 10 years from now .
So, these effects will occur later, and right now it is inflation. This is because, looking at the situation we are currently facing, the deflationary effect represented by globalization has completely disappeared. Supply chains have already been completely reorganized, and as a result, production costs themselves have risen.
Therefore, I view robotics as a matter for later, and for now, we are in an inflationary environment . Besides that, service prices themselves have gone up, and haven't housing prices also risen significantly? Looking at these things, people are saying that right now it is inflation. So, in an environment like this, would n't the Fed be the most important for controlling prices?
So, from King Griffin's perspective, one of the Fed's most important forms of autonomy is its independence. That is because independence is necessary to implement policies that people dislike . Raising interest rates is a prime example of a policy they dislike, because if interest rates rise, the capital market declines, and wouldn't the experimentation rate also increase?
That is why, even though these people dislike it, it is unavoidable if they want to control prices . However, if independence is compromised and interest rates are lowered and the money is injected as the Trump administration desires, inflation cannot be controlled, which will damage the value of the dollar in the long term .
Also, as we saw earlier, long-term interest rates are closely related to long-term growth. Canfin believes that if that happens, long-term interest rates will rise, undermining long-term growth potential . Furthermore, if things turn out this way, it is also disadvantageous to the Trump administration because if the Fed operates with independence, the issue of inflation becomes the Fed's responsibility.
However, if Trump gains influence over the Fed, the inflation issue will now become Trump's responsibility. So, this is also politically disadvantageous . Well, if that's the case, macros are n't really that great anymore. What will happen going forward? Ken Glyffin did not go so far as to say that the capital market would crash.
For now, the possible scenario is that bond yields will be canceled down to the highest possible level. Well, according to what was said, the upper limit for long-term interest rates—specifically based on the 30-year bond—was estimated to be around 6% . Then, does the stock market waver? The stock market will also do well in its own way.
Because, as mentioned earlier, stocks like interest rate cuts, stock prices will also move forward, bolstered by the rate reduction. So, I believe that this phenomenon of both bond yields and stocks rising will continue until a certain point . So, one of the solutions cited to resolve these macroeconomic challenges is AI, but how did you view AI?
AI has an overhyping aspect. So, I thought there was an aspect of it being overvalued. In particular, it was n't very well-received because of the generative AI. He stated that while he has met with many entrepreneurs and heard numerous examples of productivity improvement through the adoption of AI, he has never heard of a case where productivity was improved by utilizing generative AI.
So, he said that even his own company, Citadel, hardly utilizes generative AI . So, regarding what is meant by the productivity improvement effect caused by AI, it was said that this is a productivity revolution that occurred as technologies that had existed since the past, such as optimization and machine learning, were being neglected, but now, thanks to AI, those past technologies are being introduced with renewed vigor.
In this regard, Herbert Business Review once wrote an article on the topic of AI, stating that generative AI has actually increased the workload for people, leading to a decline in productivity. So, when these people work, they generate work using generative AI. However, while the work produced by this AI may look impressive on the surface, most of it lacks substance.
Therefore, from the perspective of someone in a position to review the work, it actually increases their workload . Because the work generated by this AI is lacking substance, the need for detailed review increases, and since there are many errors during the review, corrections will also be required.
So, the point is that due to AI, the effect of doing the work twice instead of once has occurred. So, Harvard Business Review actually conducted a survey targeting these American workers. Here is what this chart is. I asked how your evaluation of your colleagues has changed because your colleagues or subordinates are using generative AI for their work .
So, I was asking about aspects such as whether you think the creativity of colleagues or subordinates has improved, worsened, or remained the same since using this generative AR, whether you think they are more reliable, or whether you have come to view them as more intelligent . However, from any perspective, there is a perception that the capabilities of colleagues and subordinates have worsened due to generative AI.
So, he is saying that due to AI, his workload has increased, and the evaluation and trust in the employees he works with have also declined. So, the point is that additional proportionality actually arose because of AI . Citing this article, Canfindo also mentioned that he had received a report generated by generative AI at the Citadel; he looked at the first few weeks and thought, "Wow, this is really well written," but when he looked at the rest, the rest was just nonsensical rubbish.
But since I have expertise in this field, I knew that was nonsense . I have previously stated that if it had been someone without expertise, they would have approved this report full of nonsense . So, considering these points, people say these days that jobs are decreasing due to AI . However, Ken Griffin is saying that jobs have not decreased because of AI .
Then what caused the decrease? Since you are planning to introduce AI, would n't you be reviewing the entire business process? I am currently reviewing what tasks are being handled and how they are progressing, and during that review process, I find myself wondering, "Why are we doing this work ?" Also, as I discovered the discrepancy and wondered why they were doing it this way, I thought, ' Then this person isn't needed; they don't have to do the work,' and ended up firing this person.
But since simply cutting them off isn't ideal, these companies are using AI as an excuse . We can't help it either because of AI . They are saying that they are making excuses, claiming that it is truly unavoidable because if we follow AI, we will fall behind . In that case, regarding whether the productivity improvement caused by AI is an illusion, they are saying that it is not .
This is because it is being said that the greatest benefit of AI is not, in particular, generative AI itself, but rather the change in attitude among U.S. companies. Previously, they had almost abandoned productivity improvement through technology development and adoption, but now that AI has become the primary driver, it has made them focus again on productivity improvement through technology development and adoption .
So, due to this change in attitude, things like optimization and machine learning, which existed in the past but had been ignored until now, were actively introduced, and as a result, productivity improved. Furthermore, we improved inefficiencies during the process of reviewing business processes to introduce AI, so we view these aspects as the effectiveness of AI .
Then, regarding whether AI technology itself is useless, these are called hyperscalers. A prime example is these big tech companies, are n't they currently making massive investments? In that process, a lot of money is spent and recognition is concentrated there, so new avenues that we are not yet aware of may open up.
We believe that this can lead to increased productivity . Yes, that was Ken Griffin's story. To add a little more to my thoughts, it is as follows. First of all, regarding the election, now that the election landscape has been overturned, he is a pioneer in this field who has explored the relationship between elections and stocks in great depth regarding how this will affect the stock market.
You can get some hints from Campier . According to Campier, whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party wins has little effect on long-term stock returns . I said that the important thing is whether it results in a landslide victory for one side or a stalemate. Because, in a way, an election is an uncertainty.
For example, if one party gains complete control, ca n't they just pass the massive bills they want? But in a way, such massive volatility is massive volatility. Because it brought about significant changes to society . However, if a deadlock occurs, the two parties have to negotiate to pass the bill, so naturally, the massive bill does not pass.
I mentioned that in that case, from the stock market's perspective, there is a sense of reassurance, thinking, "Oh, the probability of the massive bill passing has decreased, so there won't be much volatility." So, looking at this, rather than whether the Democratic or Republican parties win or lose, what is important is whether the race ends in a stalemate or if one side achieves a landslide victory.
And another thing is, don't we call it the shelf of truth ? I also view the campaign that since the direction and dynamics of the election are already reflected in stock prices even before the election, the direction of stock prices is rarely significantly influenced by the election results once the election is actually held .
So, regarding the intermediate point, what we need to pay attention to is that the day of the intermediate decline is not what is important; rather, we need to consider the fact that it becomes a shelf-type trend from before that, and keep in mind the direction of the stock price from that point on .
Also, regarding the election results, what matters is not whether one side wins by a large margin, but whether the race ends in a stalemate or not. Also, if the Democratic Party gains significant control of Congress again, the Republican Party will take over the administration, so it could lead to a kind of stalemate .
So, I think we need to keep these things in mind . Next, secondly, Canfin is saying that the views of the stock and bond markets have completely diverged. So, in short, the patterns of reaction to the same macroeconomic conditions differ—specifically, the stock market reacts positively while the bond market reacts negatively—and this affects our asset allocation .
So, the typical ratio is 60 to 40. Well, the ratio can vary a bit, but stocks and bonds are mainly used as means of asset allocation; in a way, this means we are using these bonds as a means to hedge stocks . Asset allocation is done because stocks perform well even when bonds are underperforming, and bonds provide some compensation when stocks are not.
However, if the current situation were to reverse—if these macroeconomic concerns materialize and stocks take a hit and fall— would bonds rebound in the opposite direction? Uh, because regarding the same macroeconomic phenomenon, bonds are already reacting negatively, and if that materializes, it is highly likely that bonds will react negatively just like now, so the probability of them suddenly viewing it in the opposite way is not high.
Therefore, due to this phenomenon, asset allocation is quite difficult. So, I would like to say that this is a factor we need to consider when allocating assets, and that concludes today's video. So let's invest like a master again today. I was Eric from Eric's Master Lab . Then, I will see you again in the next video. thank you
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