저자: 켄피셔 · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 증시가 이전 고점을 돌파한 상황에서 시장의 불안 요인(관세, 달러 급락, 세금 인하, 디지털 서비스세 관련 법안 등)에 휩쓸리지 말라는 주장이다. 화면상 발언자는 켄 피셔의 칼럼과 유튜브 내용을 인용하며, 과거 데이터상 S&P500이 이전 고점을 돌파한 뒤 평균 약 45개월간 상승이 이어졌고 평균 수익률은 약 118%, 중앙값은 약 33개월·약 47%였다고 설명한다. 현금 보유는 장기적으로 불리한 선택이라는 주장이다. 현금의 실질 수익률은 약 0.4%(3.4%-인플레이션 3%)에 불과하고, 현금 비중 70/30 대비 80/20 같은 배분 차이가 장기 수익률을 크게 떨어뜨린다고 설명한다. 현금 비중이 높다는 것은 주식·채권이 장기적으로 부진할 것이라는 암묵적 신호라고 해석한다. 올해 비미국 주식(특히 유럽)이 미국보다 나은 이유로는 관세가 부과국 자신에게 더 큰 피해를 준다는 점과 유럽의 장단기 금리차 재확대로 인한 대출-예금 마진 확대를 든다. 이 수혜는 금융·화학·농업 등 가치주에 집중된다고 본다. 세금 인하는 주가에 큰 영향이 없다는 입장이다. 선반영 효과와 합리적 기대 이론을 근거로 든다. 자본이득세 인하는 매도 유인을 키워 오히려 단기 매도 압력을 만들 수 있고, 인상은 보유 유인을 높일 수 있다고 주장한다. 섹션 899(디지털 서비스세 보복 조항)은 이미 4년간 논의되어 주가에 반영됐다고 보며, 무역 긴장 고조 자체가 더 우려된다고 말한다. 달러 하락에 대해서는 환율은 경제·주가를 이끄는 것이 아니라 그 결과를 반영하는 지표라고 주장한다. 달러 인덱스는 2022년 수준으로 돌아왔지만, 과거 대비 절대 수준은 낮지 않고(파운드 대비 장기평균 상회, 엔·유로 대비 평균 수준), 이번 하락폭은 역사상 11위 규모로 크지 않다고 설명한다. 작년 말 강달러 기대로 지수가 급등했던 기저효과 때문에 하락이 크게 보인다고 본다. 결론: 주가가 신고가를 돌파한 시점의 불안은 매수 기회 신호로 해석하며, 자산 수익률 계산 시 현금을 포함해야 한다고 강조한다. 개별 종목 가격 전망이나 목표가는 언급되지 않았다. 조건/리스크: 발언은 장기 관점 중심이며, 관세·무역 갈등 심화 시 경기침체 가능성을 언급했다. 출연자 본인이 직접 앞으로 1~3개월 방향을 명시한 종목 예측은 없다. 'S&P500 상승 지속'은 장기 통계 기반 서술이다.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. This is Rick. Last time, I shared some unsettling news, but today I have brought you some hopeful stories. The protagonist delivering these hopeful stories is our King of Positivity, Campyshow, and I will skip the introduction to Campyshow. Since he is such a famous figure and I have introduced him frequently, I will skip over him .
yes. Today's content is based on the columns Cam Fisher recently wrote and the videos he uploaded to his YouTube channel . The main points for today are as follows. These days, as U.S. stocks have broken through their previous highs again, it is something to celebrate, but there is also a lot of talk about anxiety.
Ah, the customs issues and things like that haven't all been resolved yet, so the price is unstable right now. Can it go up any further like this? There are many news reports questioning whether stock prices can actually rise given the significant drop in the dollar and the passing of some strange bill, but I am advising people to just ignore such concerns .
And as I have been telling you recently, the campy will be better in Europe than in the U.S. this year . I said that non-U.S. stocks would be better than U.S. stocks, and I explained the reasons why they were good . And one of the specialties of this campaigner was performing a feat of strength to overcome anxiety.
I will conclude today's content with a stunt demonstrating that all the unsettling news—such as tax cuts, the current sharp drop in the dollar, and various bills—is merely a baseless fear. This graph is the S&P 500, and recently, it has overcome the decline in tariffs. It has broken through the all-time high, but as I mentioned earlier, various concerns are currently being raised .
At this point, many people fall into the temptation of thinking, "I've already broken even, so I should just take my money back and leave ." They say the market is unstable and I should just be satisfied with breaking even, but that is not campaigning. They say that selling when it breaks through the previous high is actually a waste of money and a foolish thing to do .
So, they say the answer can be found by looking at past stock prices . Looking at this chart, isn't there a moment when the previous high is reached when a bull market returns after a bear market ? It summarizes how long the rise continued and how significantly it increased after reaching the previous high.
So, if you look, the part I've marked with red claps indicates how much the price rose on average and what the median value was when the previous high was broken during a bull market . On average, once the previous high was broken, the rise continued for about 45 months . It has risen by an average of about 118% since breaking through the previous high .
It states that the median has risen by about 33 months and the rate of return by about 47% . Of course, the current decline is a continuation of the rise following a rebound after a correction in a bull market. The chart refers to the time when a bull market began after a bear market and the previous high was broken, so the situation is slightly different, but I view Campus as largely similar.
The point is that there are almost no cases where, after a correction in a bull market and breaking through the previous high, the decline continues straight through and turns into a bear market . So, looking at past examples, the stock actually broke through the previous high because it continued to rise after breaking through.
Ah, I am saying that thinking you should just break even and get out of here is not a wise idea . Also, now that we have experienced such a big decline recently, we don't know when another big drop might come. I'm going to stockpile some cash and buy at the bottom when the next drop comes. There are many people who say they will just hold onto cash out of anxiety, but Campition argues that this is a very bad investment decision .
So, people think cash is a safe asset, but it is n't. So, if we have cash in an account, it doesn't fluctuate like stocks, right? People think cash is a safe asset because it just stays in the account unless they spend it, but in reality, that is not the case . This graph shows the long-term average annual return of stocks, gold, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds .
In the case of the S&P 500, looking from 1926 to 2024, it usually grew on average. Gold fell, corporate bonds rose by about 5.7%, and U.S. 10-year bonds rose by about 4.7%. And this part marked in yellow is cash, and usually, the yield on cash is viewed by substituting it with a 3-month U.S. bond. So, the return on this cash is about 3.4% in the long run, but the inflation rate in the long run is 3%.
So, if you look at the real rate of return, subtracting the inflation rate of 3% from 3.4% leaves 0.4%. So, that means cash is an asset that generates almost no profit. Campition argues that hoarding cash is actually a very bad investment decision because it is an asset that is consumed by inflation .
So, since returns are poor like this, the point is that hoarding cash for the long term takes a significant hit to our long-term returns . This graph shows the period from 1999 to 2025; the blue line represents the scenario where 70% of my assets are invested in stocks and 30% in long-term investments.
The orange line represents the rate of return when investing in stocks and holding 20% in cash. So, if you had invested $1 million in 1999, by 2025, with 70% in stocks and 30% in bonds, it would have exceeded $5 million—meaning it has risen more than fivefold— whereas even if you hold only 20% in cash, the difference in returns is quite significant.
So, Campition argues that cash is not a great investment cycle. Then why do we have cash? We need cash for living expenses, and as we go through life, there are various occasions where we have to spend a large sum of money. When I need to spend cash like this—for example, when I have to pay medical bills or buy a car right away—I think, "I should sell some of the stocks I own right now." Well, I guess I should sell some bonds.
They say that you hold that amount of cash to avoid selling assets, but it is not wise to hold cash as an investment tool. However, you can also refute it like this . People often say, "Ah, I'm holding cash and will buy when the stock price drops," but as you have all likely experienced, when the market hits a bottom, I get so scared that I can't bring myself to invest .
So, is n't there a famous quote about investing? People say that such words are hollow, as there is an investment adage that says, " When the time comes to really buy, you won't want to buy," because people are reluctant to reach for the bottom . So, Campy advises measuring your cash ratio relative to your assets.
So, if I have stocks or bonds that I bought, I would have bonds; if I have invested in something, I would have gold; and I would also have a retirement pension and just a savings account at the bank. If you add all of these up, you can see exactly how much my assets are. Then, among that, the money in my deposit account can be considered cash .
Measure how much that cash accounts for in your assets . If the weight of "if" is high, it means that the future is viewed quite negatively . Because cash has an extremely low return compared to stocks, bonds, or other assets, having a high proportion of cash implies that stocks and bonds are likely to perform quite poorly in the long term .
In that case, there must be some bad news that only I know about and others don't . Ah, others don't know this, but due to these bad factors, stocks and bonds are going to be terrible in the long run . So, they are saying that unless the reason is that cash needs to be increasing, there is no reason to carry that much cash .
And as I mentioned earlier, didn't Campier say that European stocks would perform better than US stocks this year ? This graph shows the MSCI 500, the EuroDAX (a representative European stock index), and the German stock index. Even looking solely at the MSCI World Index, out of 47 countries worldwide, the US ranks roughly between 37th and 42nd; while rankings fluctuate depending on the dollar or other exchange rates, it is said to represent the first-half returns just that poorly for the US.
Then, why were other countries, especially Europe—which Campesher picked— better than the US? There are two reasons cited: the first is tariffs, and the second is the expansion of the interest margin . First of all, Campisho argues that tariffs inevitably cause greater damage to the country imposing them, rather than the country being imposed.
So, imposing tariffs is like shooting yourself in the foot . So, the U.S. has essentially tripped itself up due to the imposition of tariffs, and looking outside the U.S., the interest margin is expanding. Well, it's the same in the U.S., though. So, this graph shows the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates of major European countries .
We usually say that a bank's loan-deposit balance follows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates, do n't we? However, if you look at Europe, the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates started to invert again starting in 2023 . So, it means that the lending-deposit balance in banks is widening again.
So, if you look at the loan-deposit margins of European banks, you can see that they are improving, but what does this margin have to do with non-U.S. stocks ? In the case of the U.S., there are mostly tech stocks, you know. So, it means that while growth stocks are predominant, non-U.S. stocks, especially European ones, tend to be value stocks.
Well, sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and banking account for a large portion of their portfolios, but these value stocks find it difficult to attract investment or do things like growth stocks—that is, like tech companies. Usually, traditional companies like value stocks borrow money. We borrow money from the bank .
However, the fact that the lending-deposit range is expanding means that, from the banks' perspective, lending money leads to increasingly higher returns, so the incentive to lend has grown. And as lending becomes more active, value stocks can borrow money more easily, which serves as a significantly positive factor for value stocks .
Therefore, I interpret this as one of the reasons why non-U.S. stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in the first half of the year, as value stocks have benefited significantly due to the expansion of interest margins, particularly in regions outside the U.S. And now, regarding the various unsettling issues being raised in the US, Camp Fisher is dispelling superstitions.
First of all, is n't tax cut a policy that Trump is currently pushing hard? Regarding the tax cuts, there is a mix of expectations and disappointments over whether the cuts will be large or small, but from Campesher's perspective, there is no need to expect too much or be disappointed about them. Because, in the history of the United States, haven't there been countless tax increases and decreases?
There have been various tax cuts and increases, such as raising and lowering advisory income tax and income tax, but looking at history, the point is that whether taxes were cut or raised, there was absolutely no effect on the stock market. Why didn't these tax issues, including tax cuts or even tax increases, affect the stock market ?
I'd like to pick two reasons for the campaign . The first is this shelf type of truth. For example, if tax cuts are implemented, the impact is already fully reflected in stock prices before the plan is put into effect, so stock prices won't skyrocket just because of the tax reduction . And the second is the rational expectation theory.
In economics, the rational expectations theory refers to the idea that economic agents do not blindly follow government policies, but rather act based on a rational judgment, thinking, "Since the government policy is like this, I will act in this way ." For example, it is like this . It is said that the Trump administration is lowering capital gains tax.
So, people think that lowering the capital gains tax would naturally help the stock market, but the point is that simply lowering the capital gains tax does not actually help the stock market . Because people are lowering capital gains tax. Oh, then I should sell my stocks when the capital gains tax goes down.
Because the capital gains tax could go up again later if the government changes . So, thinking, "I should sell now that taxes are lowered," everyone tries to sell their stocks, which increases selling pressure and could actually cause stock prices to fall. Conversely, if capital gains taxes increase—thinking, "If capital gains taxes continue to rise like this, selling stocks might not actually be helpful"—then selling might not be helpful.
They argue that this tax increase could actually be beneficial to stock prices because it eliminates the incentive to sell, making investors feel they should hold onto their stocks longer. Based on these two factors, I view the campaign as one where tax cuts will not have a significant impact on the stock market.
And the second is the bill issue. Didn't this item called Section 899 become quite a hot topic in Trump's big and beautiful bill ? It was a measure to regulate foreign investment, and of course, had it passed, it would have had a huge impact on the U.S. stock market, but it was eventually scrapped due to the decision of Treasury Secretary Scarcen .
However, the reason this Section 899 provision was included is the Digital Service Tax (DST). It is a bill designed to help global companies providing digital services, such as Google and Microsoft, meet minimum tax rates to avoid being subject to tax features like those in Ireland. However, since most global IT companies like Google are based in the United States, the US would be the only one to suffer if a digital services tax were introduced internationally; therefore, Section 89 was included as a retaliatory measure against this .
But well, the DST has been resolved to some extent. Canada also said they would put it on hold for now. Of course, other countries have n't been affected yet, but Campitcher says that even if DST passes and Big Tech companies in the U.S. are separated, it won't have a significant impact. This is because the DST tax did not suddenly appear; it has already been widely discussed for the past four years, so it is already reflected in the stock prices of these big tech companies.
So, this tax is unlikely to become a major issue that significantly influences U.S. stocks. However, what we need to pay attention to is that since other countries are imposing DST, the Trump administration created the Section 899 provision to retaliate. Does n't this demonstrate an extreme standoff?
Now in international trade. Therefore, since this shows that the trade crisis is gradually escalating, if this trade crisis intensifies further, an economic recession could follow . So, I said that rather than the bill itself, we need to be careful about the atmosphere of heightening tensions by creating this bill against one another .
yes. And well, the dollar is showing a pretty bad performance. The dollar index has now returned to 2022 levels. So, as the dollar is showing such a poor performance right now, concerns are being raised that U.S. stocks will naturally perform poorly as well . However, Cambition says that this is also a baseless concern .
This is because currency is a reflection of economic or psychological phenomena, but it does not lead economic phenomena or stock prices . So, when we look at how exchange rates are determined, interest rates are important, as is the country's price level. Various factors such as the current account balance—the size of the trade surplus or deficit—and the economic growth rate are all reflected in the exchange rate.
Therefore, the exchange rate reflects these various factors, and also reflects people's concerns . Hey, prices are high right now so it looks like interest rates will rise, and the trade balance is quite poor so the economy seems likely to worsen. This merely reflects these concerns; as I mentioned earlier, the first point is that it does not determine the future of the stock market and the economy .
And although the dollar has fallen significantly, it hasn't actually dropped that much when looking at the past as a whole . This graph shows the dollar compared to the British pound, and right now, the dollar is at a higher level than its long-term average relative to the pound. And against the Japanese Yen, you can see that the exchange rate is currently at its long-term average level .
And compared to the Euro, it can be confirmed that it is positioned at the long-term average level . And when we usually talk about the dollar index, we refer to the Dixie index, but besides that, there is another dollar index based on trade, which is a trade-weighted index. So, looking at the dollar index, it means that the current dollar index is much higher than the long-term average .
So, even looking solely at the absolute levels of the dollar and the index, they are not low compared to the past. Although the dollar has fallen significantly this year, it dropped much more sharply in 1995, 2009, and 2020; at that time, despite the decline in the dollar index, stocks actually rose.
And since this current drop is the 11th largest in history, it is not a huge drop and is not a big deal. And regarding the decline, they are saying it is simply a result of the dollar index rising sharply at the end of last year due to the expectation that Trump's election and strong dollar policy would cause the index to skyrocket by 2025, making it appear as though the dollar has dropped significantly .
So, that is all for the campy show . To summarize today's discussion, it is as follows. If you keep tracking the story of this campaigner, there is a special campaign formula . People should be anxious even as stock prices rise . It means it is good news. So, even though Campi's stock price has broken through its previous high and is rising, people are feeling anxious.
Rather, it is an opportunity to buy stocks. It is being interpreted as a signal that it will rise further, and another important point to mention today is that cash is also a factor in investment decisions. When we talk about my investment return, we judge it based on how the returns of the stocks I invest in fluctuate .
However, when determining the overall rate of return on my assets, we must include this cash. Because, for example, buying 10 million won worth of Tesla is obviously a different investment decision than buying 100 million won worth, we can say that cash must also be included when calculating the return on assets .
Okay, that’s all for today’s video . I will see you again in the next video. thank you
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