저자: 켄피셔 · 한국인
요약 보기
결론: 켄 피셔는 하반기 주식시장이 상반기보다 상승 여력이 있다고 보지만, 상반기 상승폭이 예상보다 커서 하반기 기대 수익률은 당초(10%대 초반 수준)보다 낮아질 수 있다고 전망. 상반기 점검: 상반기는 피셔의 예상(보합)보다 강했고 S&P500은 약 9% 상승. 미국 기술주는 예상보다 강해 전체 시장 대비 약 4%p 높은 수익률을 기록. 반면 미국 가치주는 비미국 가치주보다도 부진. 중간선거 사이클 근거: 미국 대통령 임기 2년차(중간선거)의 1~3분기는 주가 부진 경향이 있으나, 4분기에는 상승 확률 83%, 이후 다음 해 1~2분기에는 상승 확률 88%로 제시됨. 피셔는 선거 결과가 여야 교착(스태그모드)일 때 시장에 유리하다고 주장. 대규모 법안의 불확실성과 변동성이 줄어들기 때문. 예측 수정: 교착 상태가 연초부터 상반기 내내 강하게 이어져 선거 효과가 상반기에 이미 선반영되었기에, 피셔는 하반기 수익률 전망을 낮춤. 상승 자체는 여전히 전망. 가치주 로테이션: 피셔는 가치주 로테이션이 상반기에 시작될 것으로 예상했으나 늦어졌다고 보며, 6월 데이터에서 일부 로테이션 경향이 나타났다고 언급. 로테이션이 취소되었다고 보지는 않으며, 하반기에 발생할 것으로 봄. 외생 변수: 전쟁 및 유럽 금리 인상은 예측하지 못했으나, 이런 이슈와 무관하게 상승 흐름이 이어질 것이라고 봄. 올해 수익률은 10%대 초반 수준으로 예상. 출연자 전망: 상승 전망 유지(하반기 상승 여력 있으나 기대치 하향).
다듬은 글
This is another topic for today. Brother Camp Fisher, I’ll go in . In the case of Kempfisher, well, he can be considered a master who needs no further explanation. Since I mentioned the outlook for going to Ken Fisher, I will briefly cover this as well. Camp Fisher made a forecast for the second half of the year, but first, he reviewed the first half .
I predicted a weak first half, but the first half was stronger than expected. So, I originally expected the first half to end with a flat trend, but in reality, based on the SP 500, it rose by roughly 9% . So, I thought the first half was a bit stronger than I expected. However, regarding why I predicted a "low in the first half, high in the second half" pattern this year, we need to discuss the midterm election cycle, which is a representative cycle of this campaign .
This graph is as follows. This shows the probability and magnitude of the increase in stock prices for the second and third years of the U.S. President's term . Regarding the rate of return, stock prices are not very good in the first, second, and third quarters of a president's second year in office, when midterm elections are held.
As Camp Fisher said, it is currently flat, but as we enter the fourth quarter with the midterm elections, stock prices start to rise, and there is an 83% probability that stock prices will increase. Once the midterm death ends and we move on to the next year, there is a whopping 88% probability that the stock price will rise in the next first and second quarters .
There is a reason why this kind of trend is appearing . That is precisely because of the election results . Campi says that regarding the election results, people think that the Republican Party needs to win for the stock market to be good because the Democratic Party has an image of being somewhat anti-market and the Republican Party pro-market.
However, he argues that this is wrong and that the best outcome is for the election to result in a stalemate between the Democratic and Republican parties . Because isn't what the market hates massive uncertainty and massive volatility? However, massive bills passed by Congress are like massive uncertainty or massive volatility.
However, if the Republican Party or the Democratic Party wins unilaterally, they can pass the bills they want as they please without compromising with the opposing party. So, they will be able to pass the massive bill they want like this. That is why the market doesn't like it very much. Because of the massive volatility.
However, if the election results result in a deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties, passing a bill inevitably involves a negotiation process with the opposing party . The level of the bill is bound to be lowered during the negotiation process . This implies that the magnitude of volatility and uncertainty is decreasing .
Since it means the probability of the massive volatility and uncertainty that the market dislikes has dropped, people say that if the election results end in a stalemate, it will be positive for stock prices . However, looking at midterm elections so far, they have mostly resulted in stalemates rather than one party winning.
That is why people say that stock prices tend to perform well when there are midterms, and based on this cycle, they predicted a weak first half. But why was the first half of this year so good? It is said that the parliamentary deadlock persisted more strongly than expected in the first half of the year .
So, a stalemate should suddenly appear during the midterm elections, or be predicted a month in advance—like, "Oh, this election is going to be a close race between the Republican and Democratic parties"—then the market would feel reassured that massive volatility wouldn't occur, and stock prices would skyrocket.
However, because this stalemate continued strongly throughout the first half of the year since the end of last year, the election effects resulting from this stalemate were fully reflected in the first half . So did n't Camp Fisher move its schedule forward from the second half of the year? So, he said that the rate of return in the second half of the year might be a bit lower than he originally expected.
So, from what I've heard from Campusy, they roughly expected a high single-digit figure or the low 10% range, but the return rate might turn out to be a bit lower than that . But of course, I viewed it as going up. In that case, didn't I introduce Campisier's value stock rotation when I was talking about the Soon siblings last time?
So, how did Campy evaluate the value stock rotation ? U.S. tech stocks were stronger than expected in the first half of the year. So, the return on U.S. tech stocks was also roughly 4 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of the U.S. market. On the other hand, how were U.S. value stocks?
These value stocks performed even worse than non-U.S. value stocks. So, the returns for the US and non-US markets were somewhat similar, but I thought the returns for non-US markets would be slightly better than those for the US . But it came out pretty similar. Because value stocks underperformed and tech stocks performed well, the U.S.
generally has a higher proportion of tech stocks. Among these secret countries, the case of Korea is somewhat unique, but most secret countries, especially in Europe, have a higher proportion of value stocks. So, because of that difference in composition, I thought the Secret Nation would be a bit better, but since tech stocks performed quite well, the US and the Secret Nation tend to be somewhat similar .
Then, what will happen in the future ? Regarding what will happen going forward, to start with the conclusion, as I mentioned earlier, the bullish view for the second half of the year seems likely to rise, but it will be less than I had anticipated . There was no talk of the value stock rotation being canceled or not.
There was no talk about this. Well, actually, if we look at the trend for the month of June—of course, it isn't data sufficient to make a definitive judgment—there was a bit of a tendency toward value stock rotation. Of course, it is a bit hard to say that this is just the beginning, but anyway, in Campier 's case, the Values Rotation has started.
It has started. I was originally supposed to start in the first half of the year, but I was late. I didn't say that the second half of the year has started, nor did I say that there would be no value stock rotation, did I? I hugged. So there wasn't really a comment . On the other hand, regarding the war or war that you just asked about, I didn't expect this.
It was n't predictable anyway, and the European interest rate hike was n't anticipated either. However, due to things like war or interest rate hikes in Europe, it will rise above what I expected, especially this year. This year's rate of return will be roughly in the low 10% range. You cannot change this ratio.
So, I said that the stock seems likely to continue rising regardless of such issues. So, this can be considered the outlook for Camp Fisher for the second half of the year . So, regarding the value rotation, well, the first and second halves have n't started yet, but that doesn't mean it has been canceled.
So, it seems they believe it will happen eventually, and while it will rise in the second half of the year, it can be seen as rising a bit lower than they personally predicted . yes . So, that is all the content I have prepared for today, and now we will move on to Ji's main response time.
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