저자: Stas · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 발언(주식이 비교적 고평가)과 하루 약세를 계기로 시장 조정 가능성을 언급. QQQ 등 주요 지수가 4시간봉 180 SMA 지지선 접근, 쉴러 PE(CAPE) 약 39로 닷컴버블 고점(44) 근접 및 대공황기(31)보다 높다고 설명. 다만 폭락을 단정하지 않고, 장기투자자는 타이밍 대신 보유 권장. 고밸류 성장주 일부 차익실현과 채권·현금 등으로 분산/디리스크 제안. 포트폴리오 상황(비상금 등)에 따라 달리 접근해야 한다고 정리.
다듬은 글
All right, guys. We have to talk. Is the market about to go lower? I keep getting this question. Stocks, are stocks going to crash? What's happening? Especially after we got word from Jerome Pal himself, that stocks are overvalued. He didn't say it exactly like that, but he said stocks are fairly highly valued, which we have to cover that in this video.
go over my thoughts and just in general cover the stock market, break down the charts, what I'm looking to do as overall, we had a red day today and maybe more red is coming based on what pal said. So guys, jam-packed video, hit the like button, subscribe, join the Patreon for my portfolio updates that is linked down below.
There's also a Discord chat, plus more. Check it out. And now, of course, cheers. Take a sip of your coffee. We have a a PM coffee for this uh for this video, guys. An evening coffee, if you will. Uh whatever the heck you want to call it, because we're going to need it. And now, let's dive into it. So, we had a red day.
Dow Jones went down .04% today. The S&P went down half a percent. QQQ, let's see, same uh same as the S&P down half a percent. and the Russell went down a leading 1%. As the VIX went up 3 12% and it closed right under 17. Um the VIX did. So we had a red day. We had a red day and I'm not surprised. You guys know we've been covering how the charts were looking pretty overbought.
The market was due for a selloff and honestly it was begging for any reason uh to sell off and we're finally selling off, right? And it looks like SPY, QQQ, all the indices are coming down to uh the 180 SMA on the 4hour chart, which you guys know we've covered this before on these um on these updates, right?
So at this point, man, we are approaching a critical support which has held since the crash back in April for SPY, for QQQ. So this is a big spot in the short term uh for the bulls, right? You can see here on QQQ, uh, we're approaching 580, 585, right by this moving average. This spot needs to hold, but who knows how much more downside we might get, especially after um, you know, what Pal said, I I don't think we're going to get much more downside, but it's interesting to see uh, kind of where he's at.
So, let me show you right now. Uh, well, I guess we're not going to play the video of what he said, but we'll go through this article. Then I want to show you guys the Schiller PE, also known as the cape ratio, to kind of see, okay, where are we valuation wise? Is the market overvalued? Let's look at one of the uh the metrics to determine that, which is the Schiller PE.
We'll take a look at that in a second, but I want to show you what Pal said, or I guess I'll read what Pal said. Um, he said, well, there was I mean, he said a lot of things, but this is part of the clip. He said, "We do look at overall financial conditions and we ask ourselves whether our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that is what we're trying to achieve, right?
That's not bad. All right, we get that." Then he said, "But you're right. By many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued." You see it right here. Equity prices are fairly highly valued. um which I I can't remember the last time I've heard him say something um you know like that.
But you know he he was essentially going on about how the market es and flows. You see certain periods where stocks get a little hot. I think he mentioned you know during uh the pandemic a couple years ago we saw similar valuations. Um, so yeah, I mean he said it himself, the head of the Fed, uh, pal doesn't just mean that stock prices are flirting with record highs.
He means that stocks are looking overvalued. Um, a sentiment that sent markets slightly lower. Yeah. I mean, we're trading at all-time highs for sure, but you also have to look at um different metrics. you know, the the Schiller P, for example, which we'll look at um in a second here, that is, you know, p pushing uh overvalued territory.
Um that's the reality, but that's not a reason to to not invest. You know, we don't know what's going to happen or how long, you know, we're going to be here um in terms of the market being overvalued. You know, it could go up for another 5 10 years, you know, so it's not a reason not to invest, but it is something worth mentioning.
Uh it looks like here Sam Stoveville said probably the oldest tenant in investing is buy low sell high you know. Yeah we've heard that right. Um he said while a long-term diversified approach is typically recommended for everyday investors the professionals are also a ton or attuned rather to the market cycles.
They typically hope to buy when stocks are cheap and sell when they're expensive. Yeah. All right. Blah blah blah. We all know that. Uh but essentially, man, you can't time it. If you're a long-term investor, yeah, in reality, it's like, yeah, buy low, sell high. Duh. You know, with individual stocks, that makes sense.
With ETFs, even that makes sense. But if you're buying an S&P 500 ETF for the long term, trying to time it, buy low, sell high, not a smart strategy. You're better off just buying, holding, buying, holding. This is if you have decades to go uh or even 10, 15, 20 years. Well, I guess 20 is decades, right?
But if you have a long time horizon, man, don't try and buy low, sell high. Just hold. Even when stocks are overvalued or they seem expensive because like I said, you never know when or how long they're going to be overvalued or how much more the market could go up. So, this is the Schiller PE, which I've mentioned before on the on the channel throughout the history of the channel, guys.
Uh, what kind of ad is this? How much should you walk to lose 30 pounds? Is this ad telling me something, guys? I don't know what this ad's telling me. Uh, but yeah, let's not let's not look at this ad. It says here, the Schiller PE. For those that don't know, you should know. But if you don't know, it's the price toearnings ratio based on the average inflation adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.
Also known as the cyclically adjusted PE ratio, the cape ratio or the Schiller P or PE10. So essentially looks at the inflation the average inflation adjusted PE over the last 10 years essentially right. So, if we come up here, uh, we can see the max is at it, was uh, it hit 44 back in December of 1999.
Do you guys remember what happened in December of 1999 or or that time period? Yeah, the.com bubble. So, if you guys take a look at where we're at on the Schiller P, the cape ratio, well, we are pretty much right at the peak from 99. You know what I mean? We hit 44. Now, we're at 39. the the the the P the cape ratio right now is at 39 as I'm making this video.
Um so again, that doesn't mean we're going to collapse. You know, we're due for a crash, but in terms of PE average last 10 years adjusted for inflation, you know, we are a little hot, let's say, you know, and we did see a drop in the Schiller PE uh you know, in 2023. We got down uh a good a good amount on it.
It came down healthy to a healthier spot. Uh but still we're at 39. The reality is we are at a pretty high level. And look at where it was in 1929, the Great Depression. It was at 31 uh you know the the the Schiller PE. So we are higher now than where we were back during uh the Great Depression, which times were different.
You know, stocks were different back then, valuations, whatever. That was a hundred years ago. But still, you know, interesting to look at. Um, so what do you guys think? What do you guys think? And again, I'm not I'm not saying that to be like, oh, don't invest. Time to sell. Uh, because that that's not what I'm doing.
So, that would be hypocritical. It's not like I'm looking at the Schiller P at 39. You know, Pal said what he said and I'm like, I'm selling out. I'm selling out. I'm done. No, that's not how you invest, guys. That's not the smart way to go to go about it. But maybe you know what a smart way to go about it would be all right maybe diversify a little bit.
If you're all in on super high growth uh super high PE stocks yeah this might be a warning sign to you the fact that the Schiller P super high. It might it might be a sign for you to you know maybe get out of some super high P high growth you know super overvalued stocks. Now might be your chance to maybe not get out completely, but maybe offload a little bit.
Take some profits. Don't be scared to take some profits and maybe put some money and some cash. You know, buy, you know, 30-year treasuries or something like that, something more stable. Um, you know, whatever, anything, you know, put it in a high yield savings account. This is how you can kind of derisk your portfolio a little bit.
Uh, add some bonds, you know, whatever it may be. Um, so, so if this corrects, right, let's say we do get a cataclysmic crash in like a in like six to eight or 12 months, 18 months. Let's say we do get a crazy crash cuz the the PE is super high. Um, you're you're better positioned for that. You know what I mean?
If you're all in super high PE stocks, um, right at the turn of the, uh, the crash, yeah, you're going to get annihilated, eviscerated. Uh but it kind of depends on how you structure your portfolio, right? Or your life in general. Um let's say you could have a super high-risk portfolio with super high um you know PE growth stocks.
You could do that by all means, but make sure you have a big emergency fund, a ton of cash or other investments, you know what I mean? Maybe some real estate so then you can afford having a a more risky stock portfolio. Let's say you have a super risky stock portfolio and you don't have an emergency fund or you don't have um you know other investments, you don't have any cash.
Yeah, that's a bad spot to be in, you know. So, it depends on your situation. Uh it's not a one-sizefits-all, but that's a quick rundown for this video. You know, we didn't go over too many stocks, but that's uh I guess we didn't have to. That's that's pretty much it, man. I got exactly what I wanted to get out um in this video.
So, with that being said, let me know your thoughts in the comments, guys, and join the Patreon. If you want to keep up with what I'm doing in my portfolio, see what stocks I'm buying, options moves I'm making, trades, everything, that's linked down below on Patreon or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon.
Uh, I'm stuttering on my words. With that being said, yeah, I need some more coffee clearly. With that being said, cheers. I'll catch you all in the next
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