저자: Stas Talks Stocks · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 유가 급락과 미국-이란 협상 소식을 배경으로 주식시장의 단기 반등 가능성을 다룬 개인 투자자 채널의 발언을 정리한 것입니다. 발언자는 브렌트유와 WTI가 크게 하락하고 금과 은이 오르는 가운데 다우와 나스닥 선물이 상승하는 모습을 짚습니다. 이란 측이 항구 봉쇄 해제와 호르무즈 해협 개방을 요구하고 워싱턴이 석유 제재 완화 쪽으로 기울고 있다는 내용이 언급되며, 발언자는 이것이 실제 합의로 이어질지는 불확실하다고 말합니다. 칼시(Kalshi) 예측시장의 호르무즈 해협 통행 정상화 시점 배당률도 소개되는데, 2027년 11월 전후 확률이 높게 제시되고 2027년 5월 이전 확률은 낮게 나타난다고 합니다. 시장 지표로는 VIX가 20 아래로 내려왔고, 나스닥은 675~690 구간, SPY는 730~740 구간을 주요 지지선으로 보고 있습니다. 마벨의 루멘텀 전액 주식 인수 소식도 다뤄지는데, 교환 비율이 고정되어 있어 마벨 주가 변동에 따라 인수 가치가 달라지고 두 종목 모두 하락 중이라고 설명합니다. 발언자는 주주 희석, 규제 승인 가능성, AI 데이터 전송 병목 해소라는 사업 논리를 함께 짚으며 단기 불확실성을 강조합니다. 아마존은 실적 발표 후 급락 뒤 빠르게 회복했으나 아직 하락 추세 안에 있다고 평가되고, 발언자는 콜옵션을 보유 중이며 만기 전 정리를 계획한다고 밝힙니다. 토스트 40달러 콜옵션 매도, 애플과 팔란티어 실적 발표 일정, 테슬라의 주요 가격대 돌파와 450~500달러 목표 전망도 함께 언급됩니다. 영상은 칼시 가입 보너스와 후원 관계를 공개하고 패트리온 및 디스코드 참여를 권유합니다. 전반적으로 이 영상은 특정 종목의 매수·매도를 여러 차례 언급하는 개인의 전망이므로, 원문 발언을 사실로 받아들이기보다 투자 판단 전 독립적인 검증이 필요한 콘텐츠입니다.
다듬은 글
Well, guys. We are back. Happy Monday to you. Your Stoss is with you. I have my good old double espresso, as always. How else? Cheers. Thank you to everyone who joined. Listen, the market is looking pretty good today as oil prices are plummeting. We need to discuss why, analyze the charts, talk about the stocks I'm following, and what's on my mind right now.
So guys, hit the " like" button. Subscribe and visit my Patreon if you want to become part of the community, see my deals, investments, and join the closed Discord. All links below. No pressure, of course, or head over to stossairfest.com/patreon. And now let's get down to business. So, what time is it now, guys?
At 12:15 p.m. Eastern Time, just after noon, Brent crude fell 7.5%, WTI fell 7.3%, and gold rose 2%. Silver rose 3.5%. The Dow is up more than 1% right now. Uh, Q's went up, let's see, by about 0.4, half a percent, not a lot. Earlier in the day we were up more, now SPY is up a little over half a percent, Russell is up 0.9 percent, and Bitcoin is up 0.75 percent.
So we are obviously seeing some relief in the market, mainly driven by the big drop in oil prices . Uh, Brent, as I said, fell almost 8%. It is $105 per barrel. Now WTI is back below $100 a barrel, down more than 7 %, and we're getting news from Iran. You know, there's a possible breakthrough here, uh, which we've heard about many times before.
So who knows if this is actually true or just a bunch of [ __ ]. Who knows, but we see suggestions , right? We are still exchanging proposals, uh , between the US and Iran. And at this point the talks have ended without a significant breakthrough, so to speak, but at the time of this video, a revised proposal is circulating, and Iran is saying that their plan can be implemented in two days if it is accepted, right?
And he demands that the US lift the blockade of Iranian ports, and that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, right? And Washington is leaning toward easing oil sanctions. And if it does happen, which, again, could just be a play on the public eye, it might not happen this week; it could happen in a month or two.
Who knows, given how things are going? But it could significantly lower oil prices, and that could be exactly the fuel the stock market needs to surge significantly, especially after we put the midterm elections behind us. And I'll tell you, man, I can't wait for the midterm elections to be over and this whole Iran conflict to go away.
I can't wait for this, okay? Tehran says that nuclear talks can begin once it is satisfied that these conditions have been met, right? Let's see how it goes. Um, and Trump, I'm sure you saw that President Trump rejected an earlier version of this proposal, if you will, back in September, and it describes, essentially, this bilingual or bi-lingual wording.
Um, it describes how quickly Iran says the deal can take effect, right? And there is no agreed upon , um, agreed upon opening date, so keep that in mind. And Trump said there would be no new US attacks before Tuesday's midterm elections. I'm really hoping for that, um, leaving the post-election outlook open, that, you know, we'll see how it ultimately plays out.
And as for oil, the next thing I'm paying attention to is whether Washington will accept the conditions and whether tankers will start moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. And check the odds right now on Kalshi , guys. Let me open this up and show you what the markets are saying right now about when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will actually return to normal, which obviously, as we all know at this point, will lower oil prices and inflationary pressures, and the Fed will have more incentive to actually ease all these rate hikes.
Well, we haven't seen a crazy number of rate hikes, um, but it will keep the Fed from raising rates further. You know, there would be less upward pressure on rates, you know, which would be ideal for the economy and the consumer, right ? We see it again here on Kalshi, when will traffic through the strait return to normal?
As of now, with all these new, you know, all these new negotiations, these proposals, um, we're looking at November 1, 2027, right? The chances are increasing. We are currently seeing a 47% chance of this happening right before November next year. So, what are we talking about? One more year. Um, and right now, until December 1, 2027—it's 44 %.
Um, you know, 51% chance by January 1, 2028. And let's see if there's, um, let's see if there's any closer dates here, guys. Well, if we look at the odds for early 2027 , they don't look too good. But I suppose if you're optimistic about the Strait of Hormuz opening up soon and traffic returning to normal, you could make a perhaps controversial bet, if you will, by looking at the odds before May 1st.
We are looking at May 1, 2027. By this date, the chances are 21%. Um, by April 1st the chances are 19%. And you can see that the odds for the period up to March 1 actually increase slightly, to 13 %. And I think if we come to an agreement, right? We may see traffic return to normal much sooner than people think .
And I'm looking at the odds here at Cal Shi to determine what's going on. It's just another tool in our arsenal, right? And you can actually get a $50 deposit bonus from Cal Shi if you use my link below and in the comments, deposit $25 of your own funds, and make a trade. Again, you get a $50 deposit bonus.
So, by the way, Cal Shi is sponsoring this video. Respect to them. So, we see the price of oil falling again, stocks are making some gains for now, but we've all seen this before. The situation could change for the worse if the talks reach an impasse, if things get delayed, if we get more blows in return, perhaps after the midterm elections.
So we ca n't be too sure yet, you know, at this point. We have to be careful and cannot make predictions with 100% certainty in such conditions. We all know this at this point. So let's talk a little more about the overall state of the stock market. Let me take a sip of coffee. Let's be friends. So, at this moment, all indices are growing again.
Oil is obviously getting cheaper. We've already talked about this. The VIX index fell about 2% and fell below 20 again, and many stocks are moving. As for the Qs, let's start with them, they trade right at the bottom of the channel we talked about in these videos. And it's really nothing special. This is by no means a crazy rally.
In fact, we are starting to lose some of our gains. If I clear the pictures here guys, we'll see that we made a jump in the morning and that's when I sold or took a profit on my put debit spreads. I talked about this on Patreon. I earned about 45% in this position. It was a hedge. Maybe I'll open a new hedge soon.
We'll see, but I took a profit earlier today. We jumped up. We're starting to give back the gains that the Qs have made now, and all that, guys, we're just barely holding onto this trend for now. And if we start to break through this trend line and fall below the July lows, that's when things could get really bad.
But it all comes down to Apple and what's happening in the Middle East, and the midterm elections, of course. It is now critically important for us to put the midterm elections behind us. So I'm watching Qs in the range of 675 to 690. This is a very important point for the bulls. You know, they have to hold this position .
And SPY, if I open the chart, looks much better. We are saving this channel . We see a nice bounce from Friday's low. Although we are only up half a percent and he is also losing profits during the day, just like Qs. It still looks better than Qs in terms of graphics for obvious reasons, right? The tech sector has tanked a lot, so Qs will suffer more since it's a tech ETF, right?
This is logical. And if SPY starts to break through, say, 740–730 down, although, of course, we are still far from that, at least from 730. That would be alarming. But we're not there yet. Baby steps, guys. Small steps. So, the graphs still look good. If in doubt, look at the bigger picture. You know I say this all the time .
And we've had a lot of news about Lumentum and Marvell in recent days. Let me tell you about it quickly. By the way, Marvell is falling rapidly. Down about 8.6% now, and they have actually agreed to buy Lumentum in a deal paid for entirely in shares. And the payment method explains why both stocks are falling.
Again, Marvell was down, as I just said, about 8–9%, and Lumentum was pretty volatile, guys . Just three or four days ago, these shares were worth a thousand dollars. We are now down to 720, barely holding the 700 level. We lost 14% today on Lumentum . This, this, this is just completely being destroyed right now.
Again, the payment method explains why both stocks are currently falling. If the deal closes, and we can clearly see , if you've looked at the details, you know, Lumentum is going down despite the 24% acquisition premium that Marvell is paying, right? If the deal closes, shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for every Lumentum share, right?
And the headline, $1,132 per Lumentum share and a 24% premium, were calculated at closing prices on October 28, before rumors of a deal had affected any of the shares. And the announced deal is for $115 billion—this is the expected value of the enterprise at those reference prices. The stock exchange ratio is fixed, but its dollar value changes whenever Marvell's price changes, which is quite obvious, and it is currently falling significantly, by 8%.
For example, if Marvell shares are trading at $200, the offer is $900 per Lumentum share, and at $180 per Marvell share, that's worth $810 to the Lumentum side, right? Lumentum promotion. Here's how Lumentum could fall after the takeover announcement, in case it surprised anyone, right? Investors also have to factor in expectations until the first half of 2028 , the expected closing period, and the possibility that shareholders or regulators won't actually approve it, right ?
The question is why would Marvell want to acquire Lumentum in the first place, right? An AI chip can only work with the data that reaches it, right? As more and more chips are connected between racks, transferring this data quickly enough without consuming too much power becomes a bottleneck, right?
Marvell develops network chips and special processors, as you know, and Lumentum makes lasers and optical components that transmit data in the form of light. Owning both would allow Marvell to develop the chip and the optical channel together and sell more of the hardware that goes into each AI cluster.
That makes sense, right? And as with any takeover, any big deal like this, not all shareholders are happy. There are Marvell shareholders who are skeptical, right? Marvell is giving Lumentum shareholders approximately 1/3 of the combined company. This is a high price. That's how it is, even for a business that's growing as fast as they are, right?
Management expects more than $1 billion in annual cost savings and says the deal should be accretive to Marvell's adjusted earnings per share in the first year after closing. And these statements can coexist with share dilution, right? This is a key point. And existing shareholders will own a smaller percentage of the business, right?
But earnings per share could still increase if Lumentum generates sufficient revenue . So, you have to weigh all the pros and cons, dude. Are you getting enough from the deal on the Lumentum side and on the Marvell side? People, you know, waver back and forth. And again, we were talking about why stocks are falling so much right now.
I think this merger makes sense. I think it makes sense in the long term for the combined company. This is logical to some extent , given the fundamentals of the business. But, obviously, in the short term, these stocks simply depreciate. I mean, they are falling rapidly today. Lumentum shares are getting cheaper with every second .
The same thing is happening with Marvell. So, this is what the situation looks like. I'm not buying either one. You know, I've been trading some optical companies over the last few months, like Coherent or Lumentum from time to time. But I won't touch them now until we get more clarity. Again, this deal could be blocked.
We'll see what the regulators say. Let's see how it goes. And we'll decide there. So, Lumentum and Marvell are moving wildly downward today. Many other stocks look interesting. Amazon is back above 250. That didn't last long . There was so much buying pressure at the levels just above 200. There was no chance that Amazon would fall and consolidate at 215-220.
It was impossible. We're already back to 251. You know, this stock fell to 214 after the report, right? They reported quite good earnings. The stock returned to 225 almost immediately, the same day they announced the results. Then the next day, in the morning, they soared to 230-240. And now we're storming 250 again.
So, obviously there's a huge demand for Amazon in the 200-250 range. She won't stay there for long. So I still hold my call options. Yes, I'm in the red. Yes, I plan to get rid of them before the expiration date at the end of this month. And I think there's a chance I can still potentially make money off of them.
Although the drop in volatility (IV crush) with them is very noticeable. This is a short-term issue that we will probably talk about more as the expiration date approaches. But at this point, Amazon is rapidly recovering. And no, she hasn't fully made a breakthrough yet. We are still clearly in this downward trend.
Right now we are fighting this moving average and the general trend line that I just drew. So, for Amazon to really make a breakthrough, we need to break through 260, 265, which could happen on the back of more positive news from the Middle East . The elections are over, you know, they're finally behind us, and oil prices continue to fall.
This in itself could push the entire market significantly higher. We all know that Amazon is one of the, you know, major beneficiaries of this because they obviously have a huge logistics business. Um, lower oil prices—that's really good for Amazon, you know, really, really good for Amazon. So I'm optimistic about Amazon in the long term, and of course in the short term through call options.
Let's see, guys, how this ends for me. The result may not be very attractive. But we'll see . Toast is moving like crazy, dudes . Toast rose 7% today ahead of the report due tomorrow after the close of trading, and I sold calls on Toast today. Um, I'm trying to, you know, catch this movement thanks to higher bonuses on the eve of reporting.
Um, I think I sold call options with a strike of $40, which suits me; If the shares are bought back, then so be it, I think I sold them with a deadline of November 20. Nothing extraordinary about the bonuses, but I took advantage of that jump. The stock is a bit overbought before the report, and if it soars even more after it, then so be it .
My shares were bought out. Okay, I can live with that, you know, it's not a core asset in the portfolio anyway. Um, but Toast is moving, it's looking pretty good today, guys. Um, again, all eyes are on Apple, which we talked about yesterday, no need to emphasize that again. Um, Apple has earnings after the market close today.
Same with Palantir, or Pal...I always call it Palantir. I know it's Palantir. Um, but who cares, after all, you know? No matter what. You know, it doesn't matter, but they also have a report today. I have a feeling. Big day of reporting, dudes. Um, and of course, a big reporting week. Tesla is just going crazy.
I almost forgot to mention Tesla. This stock is breaking through the levels, and as we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I think we'll get to 450 this year. There's a chance. There is always a chance. Um, I bought some Tesla stock the day after they presented—or didn't present, but we saw, you know, the Roadster, that flying Roadster, it took off from the ramp, then landed, and so on.
I bought more shares that day, the next day, I think, at 365. Um, I think we dipped a little bit to about 340 shortly after that, but then bounced back so quickly. Um, now we're breaking out of the wedge, we're breaking through last week's highs, and we're at multi-month highs for Tesla. I like this setup.
I think we can go higher, man. I don't think it's necessarily a trap. Some see this as a selling point. Um, yeah, maybe if you're in a significant uptrend, maybe you bought a bunch of shares here, maybe you want to lock in some of the profits, but I think it's time to hold on and wait for this move to complete.
I think we'll get to 450 soon, maybe 500. So, um, yeah, I'll end it there. Let me know what you think, guys. Press the like button. Don't forget to subscribe. Get your 50 bucks from Cow Shiesty, link below, and check out Patreon. If you want to become part of the community, Discord , want to see all my deals and moves in real time, that's also at the link below, and in the comments, see you there. Have a nice rest of your day.
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